Louisville vs Kentucky 9/17/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with Louisville winning 42% of simulations, and Kentucky 58% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. Louisville commits fewer turnovers in 49% of simulations and they go on to win 54% when they take care of the ball. Kentucky wins 78% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Jeremy Wright is averaging 67 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (27% chance) then he helps his team win 54%. Josh Clemons is averaging 72 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (29% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is KY -6.5

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