Looking into NE, Oak, and NYG...

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I'm gathering some info on these 3 games and looking to either validate or invalidate my initial opinion, which leans toward NE, Oakland, and the Giants covering their respective numbers. Anyone with opinions on these is welcomed to chime in...
 

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Regarding the following article - it is my overall impression that these rule changes will have minimal impact on the way the NE secondary plays their game. I think there might be some chance for mental lapse or discouragement if they start getting really reamed with penalties - but a few here and there won't really have much impact.

My reasoning is that if Law and Co. continue jamming these guys like they do best - it would be better to get a 5 or even 10 yard penalty than to get burned deep. I have to believe that belechick agrees with this philosophy and that basically things arent gonna change much unless the secondary is really getting burnt - at which point they would deserve the resulting outcome anyway....



Patriots secondary may face tough task
By Adam Kilgore, Globe Correspondent | September 6, 2004

FOXBOROUGH -- Ty Law examined the film, saw the stats, and decided there would be only one way to stop the Colts receivers. And it wouldn't be through finesse.

Patriots defenders held, mauled, and did anything else they could think of to slow Colts receivers in last year's AFC Championship game, and in doing so shut down one of the NFL's most dangerous offenses and punched their ticket to the Super Bowl.

This offseason, the NFL made enforcement of the 5-yard chuck rule a point of emphasis, and many pointed to the Patriots' bruising performance in the AFC title game as the reason. Referees have been told to focus on defensive backs hitting receivers beyond 5 yards from the line of scrimmage. Any grabbing of a receiver's jersey, even if it doesn't impede him, also will be called holding.

So with the Colts getting a rematch with the Patriots Thursday night at 9 in the NFL's opening game, will those changes make any difference?

"You heard it straight from the horse's mouth," Law said. "I'm not going to change the way I play."

Judging by the exhibition season, it seems Law and the rest of the Patriots' defensive backfield haven't. Referees flagged New England repeatedly for pass interference, illegal contact, or defensive holding in its four games.

Cornerback Tyrone Poole said he hasn't noticed any differences in how the 5-yard rule has been called, and quarterback Tom Brady agreed, saying he didn't see any difference in the ability of his receivers to free themselves.

But Law had a different opinion.

"It has been a little touchy out there," Law said. "But it's something we're going to have to play with. They set the rules and we're going to have to play within those rules."

According to the Patriots, that's what they've been doing all along. Coach Bill Belichick said earlier in training camp he did not believe the NFL was targeting the Patriots, and whatever rules the league decreed, the team would follow.

"We've never told guys to grab [receivers'] jerseys," Belichick said. "We never told them, `Hey, hit them 8 yards downfield. That will be OK.' We've never done that."

Maybe he hasn't coached it, but Belichick's team has played like it. Replays during the AFC Championship game showed Patriots illegally knocking receivers off their routes. After the game, several Indianapolis players complained about the lack of flags.

Legal or not, the Patriots' tactics worked. Peyton Manning couldn't muster his MVP form and was intercepted four times, three by Law.

The Colts quarterback might have an easier time Thursday night.

"Where this is the first game, such a big game, I think they're going to be calling it very, very close," Law said. "I wouldn't be surprised at all -- I'll tell you right now -- if I get one or two [flags], it's probably expected. I'm going to go out there and continue to play how I play.

"They're going to nitpick so much, just to get their point across. It's frustrating for us as a defense and as a defensive back because you're like, how do we do our job? It's football. It's like patty-cake that they want to play out there."

That doesn't suit Law, a big (5 feet 11 inches, 200 pounds) cornerback who prides himself on physical play. Along with the big-hitting Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson, the Patriots' secondary is regarded as one of the toughest in the league.

"The nature of our team is aggressive," Law said. "Be on the attack. We don't want to get into footraces with these guys who play a finesse game, like the Colts. In my opinion, they're a better finesse team than we are, by far."

"Football is tackle. It's not tag," Poole said. "You have to go out and be physical. It's a modern-day Roman gladiator event."

Law has a theory as to why the chuck rule has drawn so much attention. With offensive numbers declining in recent years, Law believes the NFL wants to increase offensive output to make the game more fan-friendly.

"They want to see points scored in a game," Law said. "Peyton Manning had 4,000 yards the last however many seasons. How many yards you want to give him? That's just the nature of the game. You put points on the board, and people will watch it.

"This thing is about the offense. Plain and simple. It's about putting points on the board." "We're just going to go out and play football," Poole said. "We can't worry about the rule. We'll let the referees call what they call. I go out and play defense the way defense is supposed to be played."
 

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Quarterback faceoff a bit of a throwback
By Nick Cafardo | September 7, 2004

FOXBOROUGH -- With precision passing, Joe Montana directed the San Francisco 49ers to four Super Bowl titles. Dan Marino used his amazing arm to amass more than 61,000 passing yards in an unforgettable career with the Miami Dolphins.

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In the argument about who was better, proponents of Montana said he raised the bar for quarterbacks, making the position more about winning titles than individual honors. Marino played in just one Super Bowl but his entertainment value and individual achievements were off the charts.

Today's versions of Montana and Marino square off Thursday night at Gillette Stadium, with Tom Brady playing the role of Montana (Bill Walsh said as much prior to last year's Super Bowl) and Peyton Manning, the most statistically superior quarterback in the game right now, playing the role of Marino.

Brady's two Super Bowl MVP awards give him the edge in the sports argument over who's better. But Manning, at 28, certainly has a chance to do better than Marino, and perhaps could follow the career path of John Elway, who went out with back-to-back Super Bowl titles after losing in his first three championship game appearances.

To be fair, Manning hasn't had the benefit of a top defense the way Brady has. Though Colts coach Tony Dungy disputes the perception of some that Manning is under pressure to win the game virtually on his own, the reality is the Colts defense hasn't been that good, and it is a young unit this year.

Manning's philosophy on the topic is simple: "All I've tried to do every time I get the ball is to do my job at a high level. I've kind of learned, I guess, from Tom Moore, my coordinator for seven years. He says our job is to score more points than them, just worry about your side of the ball. That's sort of how I've played in the last seven years -- trying to score every time I get the ball."

Which is why throwing four interceptions against the Patriots in last year's AFC Championship was so unlike the rest of his 2003 season, in which he had 29 touchdown passes and only 10 interceptions in 16 regular-season games.

The Patriots defense threw him off his game; the Colts defense could not do the same to Brady.

Manning said you simply have to put things like that behind you.

"Only one team is going to be totally happy and that's the team that wins the championship," he said. "It's frustrating and disappointing to lose that game, but it's cost a lot of teams in the past in that they haven't been able to put the previous season behind them."

Which brings up the next question: Would Manning excel in the Patriots' system, or Brady in the Colts' system? We know that Manning can throw the deep ball as well as anyone, much like Marino. Do we underestimate Brady's ability to throw it long? He has answered some of those questions the last couple of seasons, but could he do it as regularly as Manning?

What would happen if [Manning] were in a different system?" pondered Bill Belichick yesterday. "I don't know. I think he would still be OK. Whether it would be as good as the one he is in or not as good, who knows?

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"I am sure a part of his performance certainly comes from the fact that they have been doing the same thing for a long number of years with a lot of the same players. You can't help but build up continuity and consistency when it is the same people year after year, game after game. There is no doubt that helps."

Brady probably does more TV ads than Manning, but Manning has more zeroes on his contract; he signed a deal at the start of the year that included a record $34 million signing bonus, which eclipsed Brady's entire five-year deal ($30 million). There's always the feeling that eventually Brady's negotiators will ask for something similar. Why wouldn't they? Of course, another question is would the Patriots ever come close to that type of signing bonus? The answer is probably no.

"I was appreciative of Bill Polian and Jim Irsay signing me to that contract," said Manning. "This is where I wanted to be. I wanted to finish my career as a Colt. I always felt uncomfortable about the contract and the numbers. One of the ideas behind it was to make it salary cap-friendly. I feel we did that. I feel we have personnel to be a good team and to continue to be a good team."

Manning and Brady are friends off the field -- part of the "quarterback fraternity" -- and they often answer questions about each other, like the one about who's better.

"His arm is a lot better than what people give him credit for," said Manning. "He's got a sneaky strong arm. He throws the long ball well. The best thing he does is he uses the players around him. He's got a great defense, great playmaking receivers. He plays smart. He's a talented guy, very cool under pressure."

Brady isn't about to offer any comparisons, just compliments.

"He throws the ball extremely well," said Brady. "He threw for 4,000 yards. He started a whole bunch of games in a row. There are a lot of great qualities that he has. There are a lot of things that I look at and I say it is pretty remarkable for a quarterback to start however many games -- 90 games or something like that [actually, 96]."

Brady or Manning? Thursday night won't decide anything. Brady has the rings, but Manning is awfully exciting to watch.

Just like Montana and Marino.
 

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anyone have any additional insights into Sciullo 's replacement?


Ex-starter Sciullo left off Colts' roster
He made 1st unit last year as rookie lineman; team decides to go with other young players.


By Mike Chappell
mike.chappell@indystar.com
September 7, 2004


The quick embraces between offensive linemen were followed by Steve Sciullo's quick exit Monday from the Indianapolis Colts' Union Federal Football Center.

After a morning walk-through, Sciullo was informed he had been waived. Just like that, the Colts jettisoned their 2003 fourth-round draft pick who started 13 games at right guard as a rookie.



Steve Sciullo
Sciullo, who lost his starting spot to Tupe Peko at the end of last season, conceded he "saw it coming."

"I've been telling the guys I thought it was going to happen, but they really didn't believe me," he said while stuffing some belongings in a bag.

"But, yeah, I'm still surprised. I thought I could have helped the team out."

Coach Tony Dungy said the development of second-year tackle Makoa Freitas and fifth-round draft pick Jake Scott contributed to the decision to release Sciullo. Also, the Colts were awarded rookie center/guard Ryan Lilja off waivers from Kansas City.

"You hate to let offensive linemen go because you're always looking for them," Dungy said. "But we've got a young guy (Lilja) that our personnel department likes and we're going to give him a chance to see if he fits in with our group."

Sciullo was one of those young guys in 2003. He started the first 12 games before being sidelined with a neck injury. When he returned, he played poorly against Denver and was replaced by Peko.

Practice squad filled

The Colts filled their eight-player practice squad by re-signing players they released on Sunday.

Signed to the practice squad were tight end Bryan Fletcher, running back Carey Davis, wide receivers Eric Hill and Chris Bernard, offensive linemen Joe Iorio and Trevor Hutton, safety Waine Bacon and cornerback Darrell Rideaux.

Not re-signed were running back Ran Carthon, defensive end Durrand Roundtree and wide receiver Skyler Fulton.

Pyatt improving

Wide receiver/kick returner Brad Pyatt participated in Monday afternoon's practice, boosting optimism that he'll be available for Thursday night's opener at New England.

"I would say if he doesn't have any relapses in the next couple of days, he should play," Dungy said.

Pyatt sustained a bruised right thigh Aug. 28 against Buffalo. The initial prognosis had him missing up to six weeks.

Also, running back James Mungro, who missed the last preseason game with an injury to his right wrist, practiced Monday and might be available for the Patriots game.

Wide receiver Reggie Wayne was forced to leave practice early Monday. Dungy said it was "heat related."

Harrison in 'top 2'

Patriots cornerback Ty Law knows a thing or two about wide receivers. The four-time Pro Bowl selection has covered them since New England selected him in the first round of the 1995 draft.

Asked during a Monday conference call if he considered the Colts' Marvin Harrison the best receiver in the NFL, Law replied, "Definitely. If he's not the best, he's in the top two. He's definitely not No. 3.

"You can pick your poison, either Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss."

Harrison has posted five 100-yard receiving games against New England, all since 1999. He managed only three catches for 19 yards in January when the Colts were beaten 24-14 by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game.

Law, meanwhile, has registered seven of his 35 career regular-season interceptions against quarterback Peyton Manning, returning two for touchdowns. He had three interceptions in the AFC title game.

Clean-shaven QB

Manning has his game face on.

After growing a goatee during the preseason, he's back to being beardless.

"It's a training-camp project," Manning said. "I've done it the past couple of years."
 

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I'm on the Steelers, having laid 3.5 -106 at Pinn. last week for a medium bet.

With players on the field and small injuries and continuity and chemistry, I'd say the Week 1 Steelers are a 9-7 team and the Raiders are a 6-10 group. Raiders will be better than last year, but new systems, LB injuries, Woodson barely back AND vulnerable to rule enforcements...I think it's too much this particular week. Steelers seem legitimately balanced on offense. Raiders seem super-penalty prone again. Steelers' schedule almost demands a win here...forget about their notorious slow starts this time around.
 
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yeah I don't know what the deal was but the refs really seemed to have it out for the Raiders in the preseason. Nothing really new for the Raiders, but, those "chuck" rule enforcements could really hurt them, especially going against those great Steelers receivers. I am concerned about their defense in this game, Tommy Moddox just might have a field day picking apart what looks like a confused group of players at this point. If the defense can put together at least a mediocre performance, however, the Raiders offense looks poised to possibly regain it's dominance from a couple years ago. Not to mention the Steelers impressed me in the one game I saw them play this preseason. They could be a force this year. Not sure if they'll cover, though.
good luck j-dawg
toast.gif
 

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I am failing to see a reason for the Giants being almost 10 point dogs (+9.5 -108@pinn)

The 18 point win that philly earned when they hosted the giants last year had more to do with the giants ineptitude to get the ball into the endzone from the one yard line (in the 2nd quarter which would have made the score 14-10 eagles rather than 14-3) AND the absence of Shockey (who also would have been a likely helper at the 1 yard line late in the 2nd Q).

In their other meeting last year they managed a loss at home - however this time with shockey's help, keeping the deficit to 4.

The intangible difference here being T.O. - who hasnt faced the giants since he racked up nearly 200 yards in the playoffs the season before last...

I am still looking into the giants secondary - but I seem to recall seeing that there was a chance for them to be worse than they were last year. If this is true then I may reconsider. Any info anyone has on that would be appreciated.
 

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Over the years Norv Turner has shown that he has trouble making adjustments in his game-planning, leading to confusion when things go tits up.

However, where Turner is one of the best is drawing up new plays that catch teams out for a few games. Because of that, I would be a little nervous taking on the Raiders early on, especially against a coach who is also stick in the mud with his game-plans.
 

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WEATHER might play a factor this thur from the remains on tropical storm fransis heavy rain will be on the way...
 

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Jaypaw,

Some QB trends you might like.

Patriots QB Tom Brady is 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS over his last 14 home home games (including playoffs), tossing 16 TD's and only 3 INT's over that span.

Patriots are 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS as 3.5 point home favorites or more with Brady under center.


Rich Gannon is 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS as a 3.5 point road dog or more since joining the Raiders in 1999.


Interesting stat on Giants QB Kurt Warner. He has never been an underdog on the road in his career as a starter.

1999

Rams -4 @ Bengals 38-10W 3 TD & 0 INT
Rams -4 @ Falcons 41-13W 1 TD & 0 INT
Rams -3 @ Titans 21-24L 3 TD & 0 INT
Rams -4 @ Lions 27-31L 3 TD & 2 INT
Rams -8 @ 49ers 23-7W 1 TD & 1 INT
Rams -7 @ Panthers 34-21W 3 TD & 2 INT
Rams -12 @ Saints 30-14W 2 TD & 1 INT
Rams -8.5 @ Eagles 31-38L 2 TD & 2 INT

2000

Rams -8.5 @ Seahawks 37-34W 1 TD & 1 INT
Rams -6.5 @ Falcons 41-20W 4 TD & 1 INT
Rams -7 @ Chiefs 34-54L 1 TD & 2 INT
Rams -7.5 @ Panthers 3-16L 0 TD & 4 INT
Rams -2 @ Buccaneers 35-38L 2 TD & 3 INT
Rams -3.5 @ Saints 26-21W 1 TD & 1 INT
Rams -6.5 @ Saints 28-31L 3 TD & 3 INT (wild card game)

2001

Rams -3 @ Eagles 20-17W 1 TD & 2 INT
Rams -6.5 @ 49ers 30-26W 3 TD & 1 INT
Rams -13.5 @ Lions 35-0W 3 TD & 0 INT
Rams -7 @ Jets 34-14W 1 TD & 0 INT
Rams -8 @ Patriots 24-17W 3 TD & 2 INT
Rams -7.5 @ Falcons 35-6W 4 TD & 0 INT
Rams -6 @ Saints 34-21W 4 TD & 0 INT
Rams -12.5 @ Panthers 38-32W 2 TD & 2 INT

And the bottom falls out.

2002

Rams -3 @ Broncos 16-23L 0 TD & 1 INT
Rams -3 @ Buccaneers 14-26L 0 TD & 4 INT
Rams -3.5 @ Redskins 17-20L 2 TD & 1 INT
Rams -2 @ Eagles 3-10L 0 TD & 2 INT

2003

Rams -1 @ Giants 13-23L 1 TD & 1 INT


Big Lou
 

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Thanks for all the stats and input guys


I need more info on this Giants team - does anyone have anything on their secondary? I dont have the time to get to it this morning in depth but I havent seen a really good breakdown anywhere on whether or not they have improved, maintained or lost talent...
 

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unfortunately I didn't get the 3 I was kinda hoping for but this will do for now

Since I cant find my exact preseason record through the frustrating search function (I think I only bet two games though so its not really relevant (2-0 both slight dogs I think???) I'll just start afresh

NE -3.5 +106 (pinny)


The Colts D from what I can see is not improved

blah blah blah

lets get the gome over with already
 

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<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jaypaw:
GIANTS

SECONDARY

GOOD, OR SUCK?

JAYPAW=FREELOADER <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

They are slightly below average if you consider 2003 stats, along with this summer's preseason. Will Allen may miss sunday's game. Even tho some of the Giants felt Coughlan was a grindmaster during preseason workouts, I like going with teams' first games with a new head coach, and will take Giants plus the hefty 9 / 9.5 here
 

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Oak +4 (-105)

Giants +9 (-111)


Going with my initial feelings - probably havent prepared as well I as should have but its still early

GL
 

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W-Oak +4 (-105)
L-Giants +9 (-111)
1-1 -0.11

YTD 1-2 -1.11

Well I guess my question was answered - the Giants secondary is the worst - so far anyway allowing 330yds passing is at least among the 3 worst allowed.

Forgot all about the gibbs debut but no use regretting it...

Better luck next week - I hope!
 

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