Looking ahead to next season

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I will stick with my assessment of Oregon for several reasons and I will probably not bet on or against them early in the season. Right now they are on my wait and watch list. A lot of people have made a lot about the win over Oklahoma State in the bowl game. OSU was playing with two major injuries to their two key players on offense and offense is just about it at OSU. When your QB is playing on guts and your WR basically got knocked out of the game that pretty much allows your defense to key on the run. I am looking at the depth charts I found and if they are correct then Oregon may not be the same team next year. At best I have them on my watch list and no money will be bet on or against them until they can be accurately assessed. I am a numbers man. I guess I am also of the belief that numbers don't grow on trees. Imagine an injury to the QB and then what and he is going to take a lot of punishment. I have always like the Ducks and I may be on their bandwagon if they prove themselves to me. When it comes to betting I am a firm believer in the old saying:
If you always do
What you always did
You will always get
What you always got.

I keep my eyes and ears open and I appreciate your remarks Ducks. I think I see the Pac 10 as a little more competitive this year than some other people do. There are several teams there that can knock off someone they are not supposed to under the right circumstances. I hope I am wrong about Oregon but the numbers I have come up with tell a different story.
 

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Russ...If you listen to the west coast guys, I guarantee you that next season you'll have an advantage with the Pac-10. Come this summer Ducks and Conan should have a good feel for what is going on in their conference, and have a good idea of the strength of each team. They were pretty much spot on before last season.
 

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Russ,

Regarding Ohio State, IMO they are a team that is a reload....not rebuild type of program. They have a ton of talent and have top 5-10 recruiting classes annually. Additionally, they are very well coached. I think last year was a "down" year for them, and they still went to a BCS game as conference runner-up. They didn't really start playing/starting the young QB until later in the year. I think they will be very good next year. I agree, they "could" lose 3 games....and they "could" go undefeated. As far as the 2 beat downs they took in the BCS NC games, that shit happens. If we are going to keep knocking them for that then we have to keep knocking Stoops and OU. I say it's better to get there and lose....then not get there. UF (my team) lost 4 games 2 seasons ago and lost in a second teir bowl game. I'd rather lose 1 or 2 in the regular season and play in a BCS game (win or lose) than have 4 loss seasons.....

Good analysis. Keep em comin....

CB
 

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Russ...If you listen to the west coast guys, I guarantee you that next season you'll have an advantage with the Pac-10. Come this summer Ducks and Conan should have a good feel for what is going on in their conference, and have a good idea of the strength of each team. They were pretty much spot on before last season.
GS: Ducks and Conan obviously know their stuff and I already acknowledge their hands on knowledge concerning the Pac 10. No problem there. That is what really concerned me about the numbers regarding Oregon. That is why I asked for input. I really only bet about 5 teams on a given Saturday so I pretty much narrow it down to what I think are the cream of the crop on a given day. Last year I bet more heavy favorites than I probably bet in the last 5 years total. Weird year but you have to go with the flow. The Pac 10 is a tough study and I am open to all the help I can get.
 

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Russ,

Regarding Ohio State, IMO they are a team that is a reload....not rebuild type of program. They have a ton of talent and have top 5-10 recruiting classes annually. Additionally, they are very well coached. I think last year was a "down" year for them, and they still went to a BCS game as conference runner-up. They didn't really start playing/starting the young QB until later in the year. I think they will be very good next year. I agree, they "could" lose 3 games....and they "could" go undefeated. As far as the 2 beat downs they took in the BCS NC games, that shit happens. If we are going to keep knocking them for that then we have to keep knocking Stoops and OU. I say it's better to get there and lose....then not get there. UF (my team) lost 4 games 2 seasons ago and lost in a second teir bowl game. I'd rather lose 1 or 2 in the regular season and play in a BCS game (win or lose) than have 4 loss seasons.....

Good analysis. Keep em comin....

CB
Coach: I love the Ohio State QB, he made a move in the bowl game that blew me away. He is truly an athlete. You alway get good Defense from Ohio State as they out class just about everyone in the Big 11 in that category. I realize they are deep and can reload quicker than most. We will know more after the USC game. They could go undefeated if they get by that one and they get USC at a good time. Again, for me the numbers get my attention first and I am right there on the money train when I see things turn the right way. I agree that the whole secret is to get there and then it the best team on a given day. I love Stoops and although I am a homer there are things he has to prove to me and others about their bowl performances. I am especially concerned about his record against teams that have exceptional defenses. Back to Ohio St, they could have very easily beaten Penn State LY.
 

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GS: Last year I bet more heavy favorites than I probably bet in the last 5 years total. Weird year but you have to go with the flow. The Pac 10 is a tough study and I am open to all the help I can get.
Russ...Compared to previous years, 2008 was definitely a season for weekend chalk players. And contrarians like me who like to go against the grain a little more than I should got kicked in the teeth. My bet is by odds of probabilty we won't have that same kind of "chalk" season in 2009.
 

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After what I saw from Ohio State in 2007 I think anything is possible with this team. That year they had just 5 starters back on offense and 6 on defense. And they had road games at Penn State and Michigan. Yet they ended up with just one loss and made the BCS title game. And this was with a very mediocre QB and new WR's.. This team is definitely capable of putting it all together year after year. Much like USC. So I NEVER count this team out. Also it looks like they have the bulk of their defense coming back. And OSU is always tough when they have a good defense. If they come out and find a way to upset USC early on, then they'll be a very tough team to beat in the Big 10.
 

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After what I saw from Ohio State in 2007 I think anything is possible with this team. That year they had just 5 starters back on offense and 6 on defense. And they had road games at Penn State and Michigan. Yet they ended up with just one loss and made the BCS title game. And this was with a very mediocre QB and new WR's.. This team is definitely capable of putting it all together year after year. Much like USC. So I NEVER count this team out. Also it looks like they have the bulk of their defense coming back. And OSU is always tough when they have a good defense. If they come out and find a way to upset USC early on, then they'll be a very tough team to beat in the Big 10.
No doubt that they have a head coach who can get it done. What they mainly have is a guaranteed minimum 8/9 wins just because of who they play. I think that the edge Ohio St and Penn St have in that conference is depth and the ability to recruit on a consistent level. The fact that they played Texas so close gives me hope as a sooner fan. I just do not have a lot of respect for the Big 11 and without Penn St around Ohio State would be the equivalent of USC in the Pac 10. This year they play at Penn St and in November so both teams should have their acts together for that one. Tressell is a big game coach as demonstrated in LY bowl game when he hung in with lesser players. I just don't see Ohio St or Penn St hanging in every week in the SEC or the Big 12 South. That is just my opinion but Ohio St gets the nod as a top 10 time and time again with defense and a relatively weak schedule year after year.
 

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Thanks for the kudos GoSooners.

Russ, I am one very dedicated dude when it comes to knowing what's really going on in the Pac-10. I'm not like some of the braggarts here that like to talk up their teams and put down others (unless I'm trying to counter some arrogance and ignorance -- even then I try to keep it real.)

I write only what I truthfully can see and I've been watching the Pac-10 under a microscope for years and years (decades.) Both Ducks and I get it right most of the time. We don't always agree completely but rarely (if ever) do we completely disagree. I know he respects my opinions as I respect his.

He is more conservative than I am about making his picks. I stick my neck out more often than he does because I put a very high priority on staying ahead of public opinion with my own. I like to analyze things and think them through ad infinitum to do this. He's more of a show me kind of guy than I am, but I do keep at least one foot on the ground. Usually I have more selections than he does for that reason, but only to a point.

Last season, I had just one losing week (W9) and the rest of the time I was 60% to 80% correct. But I have to admit that I never swept the board once all year. Nevertheless, I ended up with a 64% winnng record ATS. I'm not trying to brag about myself, just stating how it was and how it will be. (knock on wood)

I am very confident about my capping skills because I put in an honest day's work studying and I have pretty good knowledge of the teams. I have been following the Pac-10 (or Pac-8 and before that the Pacific Coast Conference) since I was 10 years old. In a couple more years, I will be having my silver anniversary as a Pac-10 fan. I love this sport. It's the best of them all and I love doing what I do, getting an edge on the bookmakers.

So if you have some time, check out the Pac-10 thread. On page 3, I wrote a brief synopsis of where each team stands today. If I was you I'd take it seriously because it's like the gospel truth to me. But if I've missed something, or if I've written something that's inaccurate, please don't hesitate to express yourself because as hard as I try, I'm not perfect.

In the mean time, here's a followup on the Mike Leach story. It looks like he will be staying right where he is at TT for the next 5 years.

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February 19, 2009
<script language="Javascript" src="http://vmedia.rivals.com/js/swf.js" type="text/javascript"></script> <script language="Javascript"><!-- bMacComputer = (navigator.appVersion.indexOf("Mac") != -1);if (bMacComputer == true) { document.write("Leach agrees to extension with Texas Tech
"); } else{ var swf= new objSWF(); swf.fullpath = "http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf" swf.bgcolor = "#FFFFFF"; swf.salign = "lt"; swf.scale="noborder"; swf.width = "620"; swf.height = "60"; swf.fontcolor = "000000"; swf.h1 = "Leach agrees to extension with Texas Tech "; swf.h2 = ""; swf.shadow = 1; swf.url=""; swf.version = 6; swf.cab = "6,0,0,0"; swf.alt = "Leach agrees to extension with Texas Tech"; RunGenObj(swf.drawflash()) }//--></script>Leach agrees to extension with Texas Tech <noscript>Leach agrees to extension with Texas Tech

</noscript> <!-- No ad code --><table style="border: 1px solid rgb(205, 205, 203);" width="165" background="http://vmedia.rivals.com/images/creative/bhale/prio/scanbg.jpg" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" height="80"><tbody><tr><td width="70" background="http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/1043/680345.jpg" height="70">
</td><td>Chris Level
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<script> function changeforumcol1(obj){ if(obj != null){ var s = 'http://texastech.rivals.com/forum.asp?fid=' + obj.options[obj.selectedIndex].value.toString(); document.location = s;} }</script> LUBBOCK, Texas — After months of contentious contract negotiations, Texas Tech and Mike Leach finally reached an agreement Thursday afternoon.
"I am pleased to announce today an agreement with coach Mike Leach to extend his contract through the year 2013," Texas Tech chancellor Kent Hance said. "I've always said that Mike Leach was a great fit for Texas Tech, and I think he fits us well."
<!--Start Image--><script language="Javascript">document.write(insertImage('/IMAGES/Coach/PHOTO/MIKELEACH250_1111AP1.JPG', '', 0, 300, 250, 1, 'Mike Leach has agreed to a new five-year contract at Texas Tech.', 'Rivals.com', 1235081661000, '', 1144, 'Align=Right'));</script><table width="258" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td rowspan="3" width="6">
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</td></tr><tr><td align="center">Mike Leach has agreed to a new five-year contract at Texas Tech.</td></tr></tbody></table><!-- End Image-->The new contract makes Leach the third-highest paid head coach in the Big 12, set to earn $12.7 million over the next five years.
"Our family all loves Lubbock and I appreciate Chancellor Hance and (athletic director) Gerald (Meyer)'s efforts to allow us to stay here and the opportunity to be your coach for the Red Raiders for what I hope is many years to come."
While the amount was settled on weeks ago, negotiations reached a stalemate earlier this month over several clauses added by the school that Leach found objectionable.
The provision that bothered Leach the most would have triggered his firing and a $1.5 million penalty if he interviewed for another job without getting permission from Myers, the athletic director. Leach's existing contract had no such restriction.
He was prepared to keep coaching under the remaining two years of a five-year, $10 million contract.
In the new contract that keeps Leach at Tech through 2013, the coach only needs to notify Myers in writing to interview at another school.
"On the issue of approval to interview another school, we've changed that to notification," Hance said. "Gerald says that's all he wants, and that's all I wanted. And Mike said that's great with him."

The contract includes a $250,000 bonus if Leach and Tech win the national championship, a $75,000 bonus if Tech participates in a BCS Bowl and a $50,000 bonus if Leach is picked as national coach of the year
If Tech terminates the contract, the school must pay Leach $400,000 for each year remaining on the agreement. And there is no buyout amount.
"After talking to [Leach] and everything, I'm convinced that this is a five-year contract but he wants to be here for a lot more than five years," Hance said. "So, I just said we'll make that zero on the buyout."
Myers said he has always wanted Leach to be Tech's coach.
"I think that got lost with all the rhetoric and speculation," Myers said. "To put it mildly this has been a tough negotiation, and it's good to get it behind us."
On Tuesday, the school's Board of Regents scheduled a special meeting hours before a second deadline passed without Leach accepting Tech's "last and final" offer. The board planned to meet Friday but that meeting was canceled once the deal was sealed.
The meeting was to have been in private to discuss Leach's status, but the coach requested a public hearing late Wednesday. Under state law, the board had to grant his request. Leach then met with Hance to discuss his contract.
In nine seasons at Texas Tech, Leach has posted a 76-39 record, including five bowl victories. He is seven wins away from becoming the Red Raiders' all-time winningest football coach.
Leach led the Red Raiders to an 11-2 record last season and share of the program's first Big 12 South title.
 
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Next season is going to be all about UF, Pac-10, and ACC. The prior being the media darling, defending champ, and "most talented team" (probably true at the present moment as much as I dont want to admit it), middle being the resurgent Pac-10 that is coming from some favorable bowl match ups and ready to show how deep and talented they finally have becomed =], and latter being the deepest conference in the nation. Everybody is giving VTech the BCS free pass but I tell you right now this team will be tested early and often (thats all I'm going to say).

Some other side notes about the upcoming season: Big East will suck even more, Stash and Cannaugh still comprise for the lowest IQ level between coaches. Big 10 will be a two team race once again (Iowa? anyone?) and I have feeling Pryor gets it done against the kittens this season. Big 12 will not be the deepest conference this season but still should be exciting to see the progression of Griffin III (its third right? someone go check that for me haha) (Baylor QB for those not in the know), Pokes and Sooners looming dangerously around the horns (Nebraska up, KU and Mizzou down). SEC is gonna be real interesting this season. Who vies for the second spot behind the anointed ones? LSU, Alabama, OLE Miss, or maybe even GA. My money is on LSU.

Well that's all I got for now, you gentlemen play nice
 

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Well VOR, I find your optimistic opinion of the Pac-10 a bit surprising. It's good to see another SEC dude around here that doesn't trash talk the Pac-10 like a wannabe gang banger hiding behind his keyboard.

Personally I prefer being a little more objective when I talk to others.about any conference but that's just me. I am big enough to admit that there's a lot about CFB that I know little about. But you'll never har me trashing the ACC or the Big-East. Good football teams are everywhere and most of the better ones are capable of beating almost anyone on a given day. Things go in cycles so it pays to watch one's mouth. You could be next. That's how I see it.

I can see where you are coming from though I can't categorically agree with you about ALL of the Pac-10, team for team, but I do see improvement across the board on nearly every one of them.

What sticks out to me about this year's teams is that I see that there are 4 of them that will be very competitive, perhaps good enough to take on anyone and even beat anyone on a given Saturday. USC, Cal and both Oregon teams. Cal is the only one of the 4 that basically returns just about everyone. The other 3 will need to reload their defense and Oregon will have to reload more than just that. But they have great depth as do the other 3 schools I mentioned so they will be good.

But notice that these 4 have been around and pretty competitive for several years or more, so I don't agree with your characterization of the conference as they have "finally become" deep and talented. I think for the most part, all 4 of the teams I listed have been pretty deep and talented for some years, if only to be finally noticed by a few watchful fans who were paying attention to the Pac-10 in their bowls last year.

I admit that just about the whole conference got off to a rocky start in '08 coming up short in a very ambitious non-conf schedule. Those are the chances you take when you decide to play some real football in your OOC games instead of playing exhibitions and scrimmages as do some other well known teams in other conferences that I've mentioned plenty about already.

Not only that, but you should also realize that the BCS conference with the fewest teams also happened to place the most players on NFL rosters in '07 according to the NFL draft. Basically, the conference was gutted by the NFL in '07 right before it (logically) got off to a slow start the following year, but then (after all the new talent started to click) swept all of its bowl games -- anyway. Now if that doesn't prove that there's a lot of senseless prejudice about the Pac-10 and its talent that infects many fans' attitudes in the east, then nothing ever will. USC's dominance isn't so much an indication that the rest of them are no good, but rather that USC is THAT good. However it took a bowl sweep to get a little attention... so be it.

Sure, the 4 teams I've mentioned have wins to prove their worth all over the country going back years and years, and they have all taken turns as top 4 teams (or better) from time to time in recent years too. But who's keepig track? However this time, as they reload yet again for more of the same, there's finally a little more strength beneath them. So I do agree with your assessment in part.

This season I see across the board improvement on every team except the Wildcats who I think will slip a notch. Washington gets a HC upgrade and WSU will at last have a healthy talented young QB that can play. ASU's defense is looking pretty scary and UCLA will show up with an offense this season. Stanford, well they may be almost ready to join the elite this year, surely by 2010 they will have proven that they deserve a lot of respect. But there should be 4 solid teams at the top with Stanford knocking on the door this season. Barring the unforseen, that's my best take on the situation so far.

It's getting to a point with me where I could give a rip about people's caustic attitudes in this place and their egotistical lame opinions about the Pac-10's inferiority. They have no idea how dumb they sound and how little these homers really know about west coast football (other than they seem to like it when their team hires a new coach from out west and then pays him the big bucks to turn them around.)

However I sympathize with anyone who is just a little naive and gullible and believes the "party line" about the Pac-10 conference because they hear it so much it must be true. They are not included in my rants -- just the close minded few who like talking shit about others and make everyone else from their region look bad.

I'm glad to see that you have an open mind.
 

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Every time I go over the stats one team keeps glaring at me. I don't know that much about the Pac 10 and I know a lot of people are down on Stoops but man the numbers are there. It looks to me like the heir apparent is Matt Scott who played only in spots last year. He was 7/11 throwing for 84 yards and had 24 carries for 188 yds (8.2 ypc). I know that Tuitama was their franchise QB for 3 years but he couldn't run a lick and it looks to me like Arizona had trouble finishing off drives. All in all they lost their 5 games by a total of 28 points (5.6 ppg) and return 35 of their top 44 from their LY's two deep. It may be hard to replace Tuitama's arm but Scott looks like a well rounded QB who gives the defenses more to worry about. With virtually all of their RB's, WR's, and OL returning and being a little more effective in the red zone a QB who can run may be just what the doctor ordered. They were 10 points away from being 11-2 LY and their biggest loss was by 10. They recruited heavily at LB to replace some losses but their DL returns. Everyone out that way keeps talking about Oregon, Oregon St., California, and USC (of course) but I think Arizona may come out of the shoot a bit under valued against the line. They are definitely in my top ten to improve most next year. I am the only one on here who is talking about them and I have no iron in the fire. My interest is peaked only by their numbers. There defense gave up 21.1 ppg LY and I am thinking that if they can maintain those numbers their offense may be able to get the ball in the end zone more this year even without Tuitama. Can I be that wrong?
 

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Every time I go over the stats one team keeps glaring at me. I don't know that much about the Pac 10 and I know a lot of people are down on Stoops but man the numbers are there. It looks to me like the heir apparent is Matt Scott who played only in spots last year. He was 7/11 throwing for 84 yards and had 24 carries for 188 yds (8.2 ypc). I know that Tuitama was their franchise QB for 3 years but he couldn't run a lick and it looks to me like Arizona had trouble finishing off drives. All in all they lost their 5 games by a total of 28 points (5.6 ppg) and return 35 of their top 44 from their LY's two deep. It may be hard to replace Tuitama's arm but Scott looks like a well rounded QB who gives the defenses more to worry about. With virtually all of their RB's, WR's, and OL returning and being a little more effective in the red zone a QB who can run may be just what the doctor ordered. They were 10 points away from being 11-2 LY and their biggest loss was by 10. They recruited heavily at LB to replace some losses but their DL returns. Everyone out that way keeps talking about Oregon, Oregon St., California, and USC (of course) but I think Arizona may come out of the shoot a bit under valued against the line. They are definitely in my top ten to improve most next year. I am the only one on here who is talking about them and I have no iron in the fire. My interest is peaked only by their numbers. There defense gave up 21.1 ppg LY and I am thinking that if they can maintain those numbers their offense may be able to get the ball in the end zone more this year even without Tuitama. Can I be that wrong?

Russ, last year the motto of the school's football program was "Journey to Redemption"... or in other words, can they make it to a bowl game after one big long dry spell. They did squeak in in spite of the fact that they were very poor finishers against most of their opponents. When the chips are down, they don't finish off thier opponents. Maybe it was because of some things other teams have learned to exploit, maybe because their depth chart isn't so great. Even with Tuitama, they went cold at the wrong time. They blew it vs teams they should have beaten in a schedule that seemed to be custom made to put them into a bowl. I thouhgt they'd do better last season then they did. However they showed some spunk in their bowl victory vs a tough MWC opponent. So I wouldn't exactly call their season a failure... but I expected better.

Next year they do have a couple of gimmes at the beginning of the season but then they travel to Iowa. Last year they took on New Mexico in the same spot on their schedule and they blew it. This year I don't expect them to win @Iowa. The following week they travel to Oregon St. which means they will probably start the season 2-2. They have 3 tough games on the road vs California, USC and ASU. They would do well not to lose all 3 games, but I don't think they will win any of them, maybe 1... maybe. So there's 5 probable losses. They will be taking on Oregon, Stanford and UCLA at home and winning all 3 of those games won't likely happen either, but what may happen again is an unexpected loss where you least expect it. That seems to be their plight at least once a year. I figure they will win 7 games at best but maybe just 6 next year.

Their offense was key to their success last season but they proved to be more vulnerable than I thought. Defensively they struggled, perhaps lacking enough depth to keep their opponents at bay for a whole game. That's probably why they lost the close games. I recall their defense literally falling apart in the Oregon game in the 2nd half. I also suspect a little bit of being outcoached by teams that had no business beating them.

The conductor of that offense has now left. Remember Willie Tuitama was an exception to their history of not producing winning QB's at Arizona. Can you name a single one, even in the last 20 years? Then why expect someone else to pop up now that Tuitama's gone? That being said and the loss of one of the best WR's in the nation, Mike Thomas are 2 players that I don't see them replacing all too soon. So it's the extra experience vs their losses to offset that which lands them where they will be next year. I still see their offense as one of the better ones in the conference but I also see some punch missing that was there last season. Tuitama and Thomas leaving the team will cost them points on the board. That coupled with a much more difficult schedule is why I don't see them gaining any ground this year.
 

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Conan: When you look at numbers like I do, the numbers speak louder than the names. In this case Thomas scored four touchdowns. Four touchdowns from a "premier" receiver who caught 74 passes for 826 yds LY. It looks like the QB couldn't get it to his premier receiver when it counted. Four touchdowns is pathetic. I know Tuitama reeled off some stats but maybe he will be easier to replace than most people think. I don't know this Scott kid from Adam but any QB who can avg. 8.2 ypc gets my attention. I am talking touchdowns when I am talking numbers. They have the RB's coming back and they scored 30 of the 33 rushing TD's LY. Tuitama threw 23 touchdown and Scott threw 1 and the players who caught 20 of them return.
You mentioned IOWA - Greene left for the NFL and so did 20 of their 30 rushing TD's. Easily replaced, I don't think so. The QB returns but WR's who caught 9 of his 16 TD throws do not return. They have a hell of a defense coming back and that will keep them in every game but they have to find new ways to score TD's. They return players who accounted for 17 of LY's 46 TD's and they lost two of their top three WR's.
In other words it may not take many points to win that game.
Now it is possible that Arizona is going to be better than LY and still wind up with the same kind of record. But the table is set if someone steps up at QB. I am not as big on Oregon and Oregon St as most of you guys and that is not to say I do not respect them. I simply see Arizona as having more potential value than those teams. Every time I go over my numbers
Arizona's numbers just stand out. If Stoops finally gets something done on defense this team could wiggle right through their schedule only losing
two or three games. What I am really interested in is pulling the points and if you guys out there don't see it and if I am right, I see value against the line.
Spring practices are going to tell some tales and maybe someone else other than Scott will emerge. And with four DL coming back it could be worse on Defense. They may have fewer holes to plug than some of the others in the Pac 10.
 

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Russ, I can definitely appreciate your emphasis on returning starters and experience. I just wish handicapping was always that predictable. However as a Pac-10 follower for many years, I also put a lot of emphasis on a school's coaching staff, particularly where they have been successful coaching up their recruits, their depth chart in terms of rotation during games (almost the same thing as starting experience) and star power with additional emphasis on the quality of their linemen.

Mike Thomas may have not cashed in when they were in the red zone, nothing like their rushing game was able to achieve, but he was an instrumental part of that offense. Stats unfortunately don't reveal performance in clutch situations when those yards count most. Nor do they reveal how well a team was able to execute vs good opposition, both defensively and offensively, in rushing situations and passing situations. It's more of a case per case thing.

Some teams just have a hell of a time with certain opponents regardless of either teams stats going in. For example, Arizona has had a hell of a hard time playing vs either of the Oregon schools, even when they were having off color seasons.

Then there are factors to consider such as power ratings. Those ratings are more about the strength of various phases in the game, talent, ability and performance.

Team speed is another example. Good linebacker speed might deny an opponent's offense the opportunity to run to the outside with any success. Some teams rely on that more than others so no 2 situations are identical.

So you see, I look at it as a much more complex thing than just "time served." But I do consider that an important factor. As an extreme example of what I'm saying, UW returns most of their offensive line but damn were they ever lousy last year. Perhaps they'd be better off if they had all left. You would think players will develop in time but they don't always do that because they either lack talent or their coaches are ineffective.

I think the key to being successful at this hobby, one needs to be able to zero in on the right critical elements that differ between teams that affect game flow the most. To me that's hitting the nail on the head and almost always cashes. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see what's coming. You just have to really know the teams on the field right down to the last detail.

All that being said, I still value what you are doing because it is one of the critical factors that influences a team's success or failure on the playing field. But on a 10 point system, where all facets of a team's game adds up to 10, I'd give 3-4 points out of 10 to returning experience. The rest is talent, skill, speed, its current ability to execute various facets of the game, the context behind how the game sets up and the coaching.
 

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Conan: I am not saying Arizona will win the Pac 10 by any means. But a team that loses all five of it's games by a total of 5.5ppg tells me that it is a competive team. In terms of numbers it is the returning TD scorers that impress me in particular but they have more coming back than other teams in the Pac 10 in general. As to depth and quality, sure they are not a USC but they might be able to reload easier than say Oregon or Oregon St (who only beat them on a last minute field goal LY).
I look for matchups and I look for lines that are just flat out wrong. By the time Arizona gets to Iowa it will be easier to analyze than it is now. At this time I see Iowa as being over valued and Arizona as being under valued. I did not pick Arizona out of the air. Their numbers are really quite eye opening. I am only trying to make others aware that Arizona may be an underrated team. With a smooth QB transition and perhaps some new looks to show case a QB with some running ability (like Oregon) then they can afford to lose a Tuitama and a Thomas and play a different type of game. Will they? Can they? We will know just about the time they get to Iowa.
 

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I find it interesting that the Iowa game has come up as an example of this. I will be relying on your take on this and believe me what you are saying will weigh into my decisions. Never a doubt about what you are looking for and what you have found.

But there's another side to this, and that would be what the linemaker thinks. I would be very interested to see how your numbers stack up vs his. Perhaps they will be undervalued. Perhaps he will see them the same way you do. I know last year their offense had a big impact on all kinds of numbers over the course of the season.

Basically, I was just looking at their games and looking at their opposition in terms of how I size them up too -- also some factors such as Zona's lack of good QB's over the years until Tuitama showed up just to temper things a bit. After all that is the one position on the field that can literally make or break a team. It's best not end up overvaluing them in error. Waiting to see how things develop this spring and then perhaps not going overboard with the results of their first 2 (cupcake) games this year would also be a wise thing to do.

Their new QB will be making his first road start at Iowa in W3. That should give us some indication of what he's made of. I've seen some highly touted QB's hit the road and get creamed on their first try in hostile territory, looking a lot like a deer in the headlights. Nate Longshore comes to mind. At least both of us know that this will be a critical area to watch on the Wildcat team.
 

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Conan: It is interesting that you mentioned Longhsore. I don't get to see that many west coast games but he never showed me much. He absolutely stunk it up in his last bowl game and I thought they could have won that one if they had pulled him in time. I guess Tedford owed him one for whatever reason. I'll back off of Arizona for a while and I'll look for another team to focus on.
 

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