Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

Conan: I am not sure why Mike Stoops has not been more effective on the defensive side of the ball. Since he has a good OC maybe he should do like "I'm 40" at O.S.U. and take control of the defense himself. With 7 returning starters on defense and 18 of 22 returning on that side of the ball he appears to have no excuses coming into next season. I am blown away that they played USC so tough LY holding them to 17 and only losing by 7. But then they turn right around and give up 28 to Wash St and 55 to Oregon (although Oregon did get hot near the end). All in all they gave up 21.2 pg which was better than Oregon. I know they had a talented QB and all but last LY he threw 23 TD with 8 int. so maybe he is replaceable. If he is replaceable Arizona projects out to be a sleeper. They lost by one point to Stanford and two points to Oregon State and how they lost to N. Mex I still can't figure out. So a little here a little there and an 8-5 team coulda been 11-2. With 35 out of their 2 deep of 44 returning I see them as a potential sleeper.
I just randomly picked them to study at the time and I was just amazed at their rating. QB is the key and he gets two cupcakes to teethe on early.

 

[russ1945]

I just took a look at philsteele.com and there is some new info on there.
He has posted a list of 2009 returning starters (something I have spent weeks compiling) which is always helpful.
Might be worth a look!

 

[GoSooners]

i would take them at 9-2 but no less (if i would take them @ 5-1 it would be stupid not to @ 9-2)

the year USC beat OU they opened at pinnacle @ 9-2...i knew they were a lock to get to the NC game, but i had to post up at pinny so i didn't want to tie up my money...i now have a few books where i play on credit so tying up money is not a problem...in fact, after UF won the NC i checked my ticket and the date i made my future play was July 14!!

think about it this way:
the day we took maryland +14 over Cal i played the ML for +600...that was my single biggest win on one game (i normally don't play ML). for the NC game, i had UF +650 and they were a -4 fav..!! granted, it's comparing apples to oranges, but for that one day, i had UF ML +650...that turned out to be my single biggest payout on one game, since i also layed the points. but the bottom line is the season played out like i expected: get to the SEC champ game, and with a win they play for the NC...not bad ROI at +650.

this decade has been marked by runs of dominance:

UM
2000: one loss and DD win over UF in sugar bowl
2001: undefeated and dominant performance in NC game
2002: undefeated until OT loss in NC game still debated
after close week 2 loss @ wash in 2000 until OT loss in NC game in 2002 UM did not lose!! As dominant a 30+ stretch as you can have.

USC
2002: Heisman winner Palmer leads dominant performance in Orange bowl
2003: split Nat'l title
2004: dominant performance in NC game
2005: last minute loss to vince young/texas in NC game

UF
2006: dominant performance in NC game
2007: heisman winner in down year
2008: nat'l title caps off season where only loss is by one point!!

i think it continues for UF to close out the decade...they really have no weakness.
think about this:
the biggest defensive play against OU was the 4th down stop in the backfield at the goal line...that play was made by torrey davis...he was the #2 DL recruit in 2007, didn't play that year, got in meyer's doghouse before 2008 season for off the field stuff, and was basically their #5 DL all season, only playing in the 4th qtr of blowouts (when you get in urban's doghouse, you don't get out...!) the only reason why he played so much in the NC game was because of injuries to Patchan (big-time recruit and true FR starter) and antwine...that just gives you a sense of the talent and DEPTH of this team. in 2010 they will be a top program, but just a contender...in 2009 they are head and shoulders above everyone else...i am not a gator fan (i took mich +11 in capital one bowl new year's day 2008). but i certainly can see and appreciate greatness and dominance, and for one more year, those adjectives apply to Florida.

Trent...Out of USC, Miami and Florida, the only team that i think is debatable on your list as the strongest team of their era (2000-02) is Miami. Personally, I think OU was the best team in the country during this time. And it was only through a set of unfortunate circumstances (key QB injuries, coaching departures) that OU didn't win more than one BCS title during this period. Miami was certainly the most dominant team within their conference. But the ACC wasn't as strong a conference as the Big 12 during this time. So the 30+ game stretch, although a nice accomplishment, wasn't quite as impressive as it looked. They wouldn't have accomplished it if they had been in the Big 12. But they did have a top 3 team. I just think that during this period both USC and OU would have taken care of them had they met. As for Florida, there's no doubt in my mind that barring injuries they'll have the dominant team next year in college football. Anything after that is not a given. If for no other reason than the SEC is a hard conference to dominate for more than a few years straight. Add to that the fact that the ACC is starting to get some good coaches coming into their conference (Johnson, Butch Davis, O'Brien) and I think the better their teams get, the more prime cut recruits they'll steal from the SEC and make them a little less dominate of a conference. That's just my opinion. It's by no means written in stone. But conference strengths tend to run in cycles. I think the question is which team is going to go on a domination cycle after Florida. It usually takes a fresh new players type of coach with something new to offer like a Carroll, Meyer or Stoops. Possible candidates that come to mind are Kiffin, Rodriguez, Neuheisal (especially if Carroll decides to leave USC), Muschamp when he takes over for Mack Brown. And possibly one of those ACC coaches I mentioned. Also something tells me that Kelly from Cincinnati is going to land a bigger job with a college power within the next couple years. That's when he'll really make a name for himself, because he is in my opinion one of the top 3 coaches in the country.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: You may have already seen it but if you go to the official OU Football site there is a video with Coach Patton the OL coach talking about the four new incoming offensive linemen. Two are coming out of highschool and two from JC's and there is some video on each of the players. I noticed that 3 incoming LB's are already enrolled and on campus.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...Out of USC, Miami and Florida, the only team that i think is debatable on your list as the strongest team of their era (2000-02) is Miami. Personally, I think OU was the best team in the country during this time. And it was only through a set of unfortunate circumstances (key QB injuries, coaching departures) that OU didn't win more than one BCS title during this period. Miami was certainly the most dominant team within their conference. But the ACC wasn't as strong a conference as the Big 12 during this time. So the 30+ game stretch, although a nice accomplishment, wasn't quite as impressive as it looked. They wouldn't have accomplished it if they had been in the Big 12. But they did have a top 3 team. I just think that during this period both USC and OU would have taken care of them had they met. As for Florida, there's no doubt in my mind that barring injuries they'll have the dominant team next year in college football. Anything after that is not a given. If for no other reason than the SEC is a hard conference to dominate for more than a few years straight. Add to that the fact that the ACC is starting to get some good coaches coming into their conference (Johnson, Butch Davis, O'Brien) and I think the better their teams get, the more prime cut recruits they'll steal from the SEC and make them a little less dominate of a conference. That's just my opinion. It's by no means written in stone. But conference strengths tend to run in cycles. I think the question is which team is going to go on a domination cycle after Florida. It usually takes a fresh new players type of coach with something new to offer like a Carroll, Meyer or Stoops. Possible candidates that come to mind are Kiffin, Rodriguez, Neuheisal (especially if Carroll decides to leave USC), Muschamp when he takes over for Mack Brown. And possibly one of those ACC coaches I mentioned. Also something tells me that Kelly from Cincinnati is going to land a bigger job with a college power within the next couple years. That's when he'll really make a name for himself, because he is in my opinion one of the top 3 coaches in the country.

GS-
i lived in miami from 1996-2001 and knew a lot of people from the UM program so i might be a little biased, but that 2001 team is considered to be one of the all-time greats...in fact, when espn ran that silly feature pitting the 2005 usc team against the greatest teams of all time, the 2001 um team was the only team voted by fans to beat that trojan team...all of that means very little other than opinion, so let me just throw a few hard core numbers out there...
2000:
only loss of the season was 34-29 @ ranked washington in week 2
only team to beat FSU in regular season (OU later beats them in NC game)
beats UF 37-20 in sugar bowl
those 3 games were not big east related

2001:
beats FSU 49-27!!!
avenges previous season's loss by thrashinig #12 washington 65-7!!!
totally dominates nebraska in NC game, where the game was over in the 1st qtr
again, those 3 games are not big east related

2002:
crushes UF in gainesville 41-16
beats tennessee in knoxville in the 3rd of a 3 game road trip 26-3
again, not big east related

eric winston, the OT for UM had a great line about the uf game, a game in which they were 2 pt underdogs (i took um so i remember this line). he was talking about being disrespected as defending nat'l champs being underdogs, and a reporter said that they were dogs because the game was being played in gainesville.
winston replied, "i don't care if the game is being played on Mars, we shouldn't be underdogs to anyone...!!"

clinton portis
willis magahee
frank gore
shockey
winslow
andre johnson
santana moss
reggie wayne
bryant mckinnie
damien lewis
vince wilfork
dan morgan
vilma
dj wiliams
ed reed
sean taylor

an extraordinary 16 players from the 2001 team were eventually drafted in the first round and 4 more who played on the 2000 team (morgan, moss, wayne, lewis) were 1st rders, as well as eric winston in the 2nd rd...hard to argue that they weren't the dominant team in NCAA for that 3 year time period

:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

GS-
i lived in miami from 1996-2001 and knew a lot of people from the UM program so i might be a little biased, but that 2001 team is considered to be one of the all-time greats...in fact, when espn ran that silly feature pitting the 2005 usc team against the greatest teams of all time, the 2001 um team was the only team voted by fans to beat that trojan team...all of that means very little other than opinion, so let me just throw a few hard core numbers out there...
2000:
only loss of the season was 34-29 @ ranked washington in week 2
only team to beat FSU in regular season (OU later beats them in NC game)
beats UF 37-20 in sugar bowl
those 3 games were not big east related

2001:
beats FSU 49-27!!!
avenges previous season's loss by thrashinig #12 washington 65-7!!!
totally dominates nebraska in NC game, where the game was over in the 1st qtr
again, those 3 games are not big east related

2002:
crushes UF in gainesville 41-16
beats tennessee in knoxville in the 3rd of a 3 game road trip 26-3
again, not big east related

eric winston, the OT for UM had a great line about the uf game, a game in which they were 2 pt underdogs (i took um so i remember this line). he was talking about being disrespected as defending nat'l champs being underdogs, and a reporter said that they were dogs because the game was being played in gainesville.
winston replied, "i don't care if the game is being played on Mars, we shouldn't be underdogs to anyone...!!"

clinton portis
willis magahee
frank gore
shockey
winslow
andre johnson
santana moss
reggie wayne
bryant mckinnie
damien lewis
vince wilfork
dan morgan
vilma
dj wiliams
ed reed
sean taylor

an extraordinary 16 players from the 2001 team were eventually drafted in the first round and 4 more who played on the 2000 team (morgan, moss, wayne, lewis) were 1st rders, as well as eric winston in the 2nd rd...hard to argue that they weren't the dominant team in NCAA for that 3 year time period

:toast:

Trent...I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree about Miami & OU during this period. Our geographical locations lends bias to both of our opinions in this case. I can tell you that in my opinion there wasn't a better defense in football than what OU fielded between 2000 and 2002. Stoops was stealing close to 40 of the best players from Texas every year during this time. And had what was virtually a potpourri of world class speed in the secondary and LB posiitions. Much like what Florida has right now. Very few teams found success against this defense. To give you an idea how good it was, in 2001, the year after OU won it all against Florida State, the Sooners suffered some key offensive injuries. And Jason White going down against Nebraska in Lincoln killed us. Otherwise we had the Huskers on the ropes and were on our way to winning that game and taking the Big 12. We ended up settling for second place and playing Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. The Razorbacks had a good offense that year with Matt Jones at QB. They were averaging about 30 ppg in the SEC that season. They did absolutely nothing against the Sooners defense, and OU held them to 3 points in that game. Between the years 2000-2004 OU lost just 6 games. I don't think anybody had a better run than this in that 5 season period. And that comes from a much better conference top to bottom than the ACC. I've always heard that OU had nine players go to the NFL from the 2000 team alone. And a few of those players are still playing. It's been too long and my memory isn't that good, but OU players who went to the NFL from those 2000-2002 teams just off the top of my head are:

Roy Williams
Derrick Strait
Torrance Marshall
Tommy Harris
Mark Clayton
Rocky Calmus
Dusty Dvorchek
Quinton Griffin
J.D.Runnels
Dan Cody
Teddy Lehman
Jamall Brown
Josh Norman
Antonio Perkins

These are just off the top of my head. I know I'm leaving quite a few off of the list. These were mostly defensive players who went first or second round. But as they say defense wins championships. And OU hasn't had near the defense the last few years as they had in Stoops first couple years. Mainly because OU's 2001 National Championship is now 8 years in the past. And Mack Brown and Texas has regained their recruiting swagger from Stoops. Losing brother Mike Stoops to Arizona in 2003 meant losing a big recruiting edge for OU. He owned Texas while he was here.

 

[russ1945]

I have completed breakdowns on 46 teams to date. So far here is the top ten listed from top to bottom:
1. U.S.C.
2. Florida
3. Oklahoma
4. Oklahoma State
5. California
6. T.C.U.
7. Texas
8. Boise St.
9. Arizona
10. Mississippi

Worst rating so far: Purdue

This is phase one only. Still need to calculate for strength of 2009 schedule, coaching changes, new recruits(as far as immediate impact players are concerned), and spring practice reports. So I can see Texas moving up. I am most surprised by Arizona who I never expected to rate high at all much less top ten.

Still have a long way to go. I am looking for teams that will come out firing and for a sleeper or two to get it going early next season.

I am not attempting to come up with a top 25. I am merely looking for teams who may have an edge as far as public perception and betting lines are concerned. It could be that the teams who rate lower than perceived may be more important. Some teams may be over rated and the lines inflated and this info may prove useful in those situations.

 

[CoachCB]

This is a cut and paste from another board regarding UF's depth chart for next season (it has some comments from the original poster at the end):

2009 Gator Football Depth Chart Projection - (7 Feb 09)

OFFENSE
QB....T. Tebow SR 6-3 238.......J. Brantley SO 6-3 214...J. Reed FR 6-3 230.
TB....J. Demps SO 5-8 176……….C. Rainey SO 5-9 185.....E. Moody JR 6-0 210…...,..M. Gillislee FR 6-0 190
FB....T. Pridemore FR 6-2 240…..S. Wilks JR 6-1 230
WR...R. Cooper SR 6-3 215..……..C. Moore SR 6-3 215...…T. Lawrence FR 6-1 185
WR….D. Thompson SO 6-0 194….D. Nelson SR 6-5 215…'..O. Hines FR 6-1 205…......P. Wilson SO 6-1 190
FL…..B. James SR 5-6 180…….….A. Debose 6-0 FR 185…..J. Williams JR 6-1 205.......F. Hammond FR 6-1 170
TE….A. Hernandez JR 6-3 255…..D. Parks FR 6-4 220
RT...M. Gilbert JR 6-6 310.......…D. Young FR 6-6 295…'….J. Harrison FR 6-4 290
RG...Mi. Pouncey JR 6-4 312…..'.B. Jones FR 6-3 310...'….N. Alajajian FR 6-4 280
C.....Ma. Pouncey JR 6-4 312...'.C. Hobbs JR 6-3 295......S. Robey FR 6-4 295……....K. Koehne FR 6-6 290
LG....J. Wilson SO 6-4 315......'..M. Hurt JR 6-3 310….….'..J. Halapio FR 6-3 300.…....J. Barrie M-RS 6-5 290
LT....C. Johnson JR 6-5 335...….M. Patchan SO 6-6 275….X. Nixon FR 6-6 270

SPECIAL TEAMS
P......C. Henry JR 6-4 200.........B. Kane SR 6-0 187
PK..…C. Sturgis SO 5-10 180…….
KO....C. Sturgis SO 5-10 180.....
LS…..S. Wilks JR 6-1 230………....M. Williams SR 5-11 220
KR.....O. Hines FR 6-1 205.........J. Demps SO 5-9 178..…....T.J. Lawrence FR 6-1 185
KR.....B. James SR 5-6 180........C. Rainey SO 5-9 185........D. Thompson SO 6-0 194
PR..….B. James SR 5-6 180........C. Rainey SO 5-9 185

DEFENSE
SE..….C. Dunlap JR 6-6 290..…'….J. Trattou JR 6-3 265..…..…E. Okine FR 6-7 280
NT...…L. Marsh JR 6-4 305……'…..J. Howard SO 6-3 280…….'..E. Hebert JR 6-3 290…....O. Hunter FR 6-0 315
QT…...T. Sanders JR 6-2 300...'..T. Davis JR 6-4 290………....G. Brown 6-4 FR 276….....T. Epps SR 6-1 292
QE..….J. Cunningham SR 6-3 260..D. Lemmens JR 6-4 260..'…W. Green SO 6-4 235
WILL...D. Doe SR 6-0 228……..…..B. Hicks JR 6-2 225...….'....L. McCray SO 6-2 215.....J. Jenkins FR 6-1 212
MIKE...B. Spikes SR 6-3 245.......R. Stamper SR 6-2 232....'..B. Beal FR 6-3 230….…....J. Bostic FR 6-3 232
SAM…'.A.J. Jones JR 6-1 225…....L. Edwards JR 6-2 234….…..J. Jones SO 6-2 224
CB.…..J. Haden JR 5-11 185.......Je. Brown FR 5-10 175……...M. Jenkins JR 6-2 190
CB.…..J. Jenkins SO 5-10 190…..W. Pierre-Louis SR 6-1 185...J. Evans FR 6-2 185
NB...'..W. Hill SO 6-2 203...……...M. Anderson SR 5-10 178…;.A. Bushell FR 5-10 180
SS…...A. Black JR 5-9 190…….....D. Munroe SR 5-11 203.....'..D. Finley FR 6-1 205......B. Thomas JR 6-1 205
FS...'..M. Wright JR 6-1 200....'..W. Hill SO 6-2 203......….…'..C. Holliday SR 5-11 195

NOTES & COMMENTS
……..A real depth chart won’t take shape until after Spring game. Mostly informed speculation (like recruiting).
RS….Coach Meyer said Gators won’t redshirt if they can play. Not sure how many recruits redshirted last year
QB...Brantley should get significant minutes in blowouts as he prepares to take over in 2010
RB….J. Demps proved to be an electrifying force. Can he produce same results w/o Harvin to distract defense?
......B. James will be given shot at Harvin’s combo RB/WR role. He needs to produce or others will take that role
...'..E. Moody is an enigma who flashes brilliance then fades to the bench. He needs to shine consistently in ‘09
FB….Pridemore could be second coming of Billy Latsko. Hernandez filled this spot last year and may again.
OL….Both OT are up for grabs. Assumption is that Juniors Johnson and Gilbert have inside track. M. Patchan
……..and J Wilson may challenge. D. Young turned out to be a good gamble and should play major reserve role
..…...M. Hurt and J. Wilson are competing for LG position. Needs to be a mauler. J. Halapio may see time.
WR...O. Hines, T.J. Lawrence and F. Hammond will fight for rotation time with J. Williams and P. Wilson
……...A. Debose wears #1 so Coach Meyer must think he will zoom up the depth charts. We’ll see.
TE.…Really thin here. D Parks could play but he’s not SEC ready. A. Hernandez needs to stay healthy!!
DT….Marsh and Sanders proved to be solid starters. It’s crapshoot behind them. J. Howard came on strong late..
……..T. Davis is enigma #2. Flashes and disappears. Juco Hebert is an unknown. G. Brown is a projected star.
……..O. Hunter, T. Epps and B. Antwine all had injuries making their availability questionable. J. Brown is gone.
...….B. Jones is big (6-3 310) with explosive 1st step. Could play the run stuffer NT role envisioned for B. Moore.
DE...The trio of Cunningham, Trattou and Dunlap give the Gators the best DE rotation in the country
……..E. Okine (SE) got mono last year and had to RS after an impressive Spring in 08. He could surprise in 09
……..W. Green needs to shine in preparation to 2010 when he will be relied on heavily as others go to NFL
LB....Depth, talent and experience. Oh boy! Spike headlines a veteran cast of AJ, Doe, Hicks, Stamper
……..A new crop of McCray, Beal, Edwards and J Jones are ready to take over. Recruits Bostic and J. Jenkins
….'...have the talent to leapfrog those who can’t beak through.
DB...Corners are set with Haden and Jenkins. Je Brown is ready to compete with WPJ and M Anderson
….'…for backup CB and NB roles (if not already taken by W. Hill). No wonder G. Reid turned tail and ran!
….'…Safety is equally impressive. M. Wright and A Black had monster games in BCS Championship game.
….'…Will Hill did not disappoint and was major force in last half of the season. He can play several positions
….'…SR D. Munroe is ready for strong finish, and newcomer D. Finley was one of the highest rated 08 recruits
….'…A. Bushell and J. Evans are FR who could play CB, Safety or move to offense in a pinch.

 

[GoSooners]

I have completed breakdowns on 46 teams to date. So far here is the top ten listed from top to bottom:
1. U.S.C.
2. Florida
3. Oklahoma
4. Oklahoma State
5. California
6. T.C.U.
7. Texas
8. Boise St.
9. Arizona
10. Mississippi

Worst rating so far: Purdue

This is phase one only. Still need to calculate for strength of 2009 schedule, coaching changes, new recruits(as far as immediate impact players are concerned), and spring practice reports. So I can see Texas moving up. I am most surprised by Arizona who I never expected to rate high at all much less top ten.

Still have a long way to go. I am looking for teams that will come out firing and for a sleeper or two to get it going early next season.

I am not attempting to come up with a top 25. I am merely looking for teams who may have an edge as far as public perception and betting lines are concerned. It could be that the teams who rate lower than perceived may be more important. Some teams may be over rated and the lines inflated and this info may prove useful in those situations.

Russ...Some other aspects of a teams possible success or failure the next season that I always look at is turnover margin, difficulty of schedule and how many close games they played the season before to arrive at their final win/loss record. A couple examples of what I'm talking about is South Florida and Kansas. South Florida's final record in 2007 was 9-4. But their tunrover margin was (+9). It is very hard to achieve this kind of number two years in a row. It very seldom happens. And I knew that despite returning 17 starters in 2008, that their 9-4 record would be hard to duplicate. And after their bowl game in which they got blown away by Oregon (another bad sign) they finished the 2008 season at 8-5 with a (-4) turnover margin. Now in 2009 with expectations a little lower for USF, it wouldn't surprise me if they have a better season than expected. And they also come into the 2009 season with a little better mental attitude than 2008 after blowing away Memphis in their bowl game.

The other example is Kansas. They finished the 2006 season going 6-6. But 5 of Kansas 6 losses were decided by an average of 5.4 ppg, including 2 overtime losses.... So this was a team who could have just as easily been 10-2 as 6-6. On top of that they were also left out of a bowl game, which gave them that much more incentive going into the next season. They also had the majority of their defense back, including 12 of their top 17 tacklers, which besides the QB position, to me is the most important aspect of a teams success the next season. And perhaps more importantly, they got to avoid the three top teams from the South Division in 2006. So everything pointed to having a great season in 2007. And they ended up going 13-1 including a BCS bowl game win over Va Tech. And on the other side of the coin, just when expectations were fairly high for Kansas after that great season, they had to go back to their tough schedule this season having to play OU, Texas and Texas Tech from the South. And they had to overcome the (+21) turnover margin from the season before. And they only ended up with a (+2) and a 8-5 record. This was despite returning 9 players on defense and just about all of their top tacklers and QB.

So when it comes down to it yes, returning starters that produce on offense and tacklers retunring on defense mean something. But just as important are the intangibles such as close games, turnover margin and how their football schedule compares to the year before. I hope to have all of this broken down by this summer and ready to make a few prop plays on the season win totals.

 

[russ1945]

I have not been able to find any place that lists TO's in their statistics. That is always something I look for when I buy Phil Steele's preseason magazine. I am going to double check a lot of my data with his early in August. He has already put out a sheet showing returning starters which I have used to check against what I came up with. I have seen a couple of differences betwen what he came up and what I did (UAB for one) but of the 50 teams I have done through today we have matched up pretty well. I did have to take California down a notch because I missed their TE going in the draft. They still are tied for 9th with Mississippi though. The main train of thought on what I am doing has more to do with game by game matchups pitting strengths against weaknesses and looking for undervalued and overvalued teams. I am still tracking down coaching changes. I will save the MAC, Sun Belt, WAC, and Conference USA for later on and continue to breakdown the rest and tweaking the numbers.
A few teams signed players who will have immediate impact - Ohio St. (Duron Carter), Fl. State (Jacobi McDaniel), Texas A & M (Christine Michael), Notre Dame (Zeke Motta) and LSU (Rueben Randle). Also spring practices also bear watching. I am not trying to come up with a sytem. I am trying to come up with a tool for comparing teams and how they match up. Also once the season begins I can make adjustments and tune in on the current numbers and and update thelm weekly. That is the plan.

 

[russ1945]

Go Sooners: ESPN's Mark Sclabach has a new article out and I think you will like the title "OU moves past Texas in revised Top 25". Of course this is his predictions for the upcoming 2009 season. I think the people who have been doing their homework have come to the same conclusion I did, that it is going to be easier for OU to replace 4 OL than it will be for Texas to replace 4 DL, 1 LB, and 1 CB. Especially when you realize that we have a transfer from LSU who played on their national championship team, players already on hand, and 2 incoming freshmen with tremendous size and 2 JC transfers. All in all the OL positions will be the focus of some intense competition this spring and if it all shapes up then we will be in good shape by the time we play Texas.
He also had Nebraska (19) ahead of Kansas (20), I lean towards Kansas winning the Big 12 North.
Alabama at #4 shows how little they will miss Wilson at QB.
He also has Utah at (21) and I think they lost too much talent. I think BYU beats them and takes their slot in the Top 25.
The SEC places 4 of the top 11, Big 12 places 3 of the tope 10.
I am still of the opinion that Texas loses to both OU and OSU this year.

 

[GoSooners]

Go Sooners: ESPN's Mark Sclabach has a new article out and I think you will like the title "OU moves past Texas in revised Top 25". Of course this is his predictions for the upcoming 2009 season. I think the people who have been doing their homework have come to the same conclusion I did, that it is going to be easier for OU to replace 4 OL than it will be for Texas to replace 4 DL, 1 LB, and 1 CB. Especially when you realize that we have a transfer from LSU who played on their national championship team, players already on hand, and 2 incoming freshmen with tremendous size and 2 JC transfers. All in all the OL positions will be the focus of some intense competition this spring and if it all shapes up then we will be in good shape by the time we play Texas.
He also had Nebraska (19) ahead of Kansas (20), I lean towards Kansas winning the Big 12 North.
Alabama at #4 shows how little they will miss Wilson at QB.
He also has Utah at (21) and I think they lost too much talent. I think BYU beats them and takes their slot in the Top 25.
The SEC places 4 of the top 11, Big 12 places 3 of the tope 10.
I am still of the opinion that Texas loses to both OU and OSU this year.

Russ...I really can't disagree with anything here. I think there will be question marks on both OU and Texas. It's just a matter of which teams studs fit into the empty slots better. I think the O-Lines and D-Lines are equally as hard to replace. My feeling right now is Muschamp will have a hell of a secondary, and he'll find a way to shape up his D-Line in the offseason. OC Wilson might be able to do the same thing with his O-Line. I'm glad to see them bringing in some experience with the JC transfers. It's just a matter of getting the chemestry and coming together. And I don't think any of us really have a clue of what's going to happen there.

Like I said before, there are other things we need to look at besides the personnel. OU and Texas will always have great personnel. But in the grand scheme of things, if you ask me if I think OU has a chance to get back to the BCS title game, at this point I would say because of their schedule not as good a chance as last season. Actually, you never know, Texas could end up being the least of OU's problems. Having to go to Jerry's World and play BYU in Texas for the first game with a new O-Line won't be easy. But I think OU has much more of an uphill battle than it appears right now having to go to two very hostile enviornments in Lincoln and Miami. And having to also play Kansas on the road. Miami will be a better team next year than they were this year. They have a young hotshot QB who can be a gamechanger. And they have a young coach in Randy Shannon that will be looking for his first marquee win. And going down to hot steamy Miami in September to play a fired up Canes team can be very tough on any team. So an early season loss will kill OU's chances if they can't run the table in the Big 12. As for Texas, my feeling is they won't be in the BCS title game next year, unless they run the table. And I don't think they will. With their early season OOC cupcake schedule, if they are tied with anybody for win/losses at the end of the year, the Horns are going to be the ones to lose out. And when you think about it, there really hasn't been that many undefeated teams meet in the BCS title game. In the BCS history, only once has there been more than 2 undefeated division 1 teams in a season. There's usually at least one or both teams having a loss. Like this past season, and the year before..

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: The strength of schedule is what I think might get OU into the number one position along with some other contingencies. Miami Fl and BYU are in the top 15 of the 50 teams I have breakdowns on so far. They rate higher than Notre Dame,Penn State (return only 4 on Def), Ohio St (lost half of LY scorers), Alabama (return only 4 on Off), Vir Tech, Fl. State, and N. Car.
Miami returns 37/39 TDs offensively, and BYU return 51/56 TD's scored LY.
I still have to factor in quality of replacements. I have come to realize that statistics reflect numbers but you have to factor in the quality of opposition those numbers came against. However, Miami and BYU present good quality opponents and if OU passes those tests they are much better prepared than Texas for that match up (barring injuries). Then you throw in Nebraska, Kansas (who I think will be in the top 15 or lower), and O.S.U. it adds up to one of the tougher schedules in the country again.
Since Florida will start the polls at number one it would probably take a loss by them before OU or anyone else can pass them in the polls. I can see another trilogy scenario with OU, Texas, and this time O.S.U. instead of T-Tech.
I am not saying that OU will definitely go undefeated but I am saying that if they do (or possibly only lose one game in conference) they could make it back to the Big Game. I think that this group is just as dedicated to getting back there again and just as motivated as Tebow was after their loss to Miss. LY. I will say it again, they are on a mission. There is a reason everyone stayed and now they know what it takes to get it done.
Despite what all the Floridians can say, "if" OU would have taken advantage of first half opportunities the score could have been 21-7 at the half. They know what it takes. They are not worried about Heisman trophies or individual awards, they want the BCS championship.

 

[CoachCB]

Russ,

UGA started the year #1 last year and fell w/out losing. If UF comes out and has a few mediocre games it could happen again. Not that it will happen....just that it could happen.....

 

[russ1945]

Russ,

UGA started the year #1 last year and fell w/out losing. If UF comes out and has a few mediocre games it could happen again. Not that it will happen....just that it could happen.....

This next season could produce a lot of surprises but one thing I do not trust is the polls. Any team that watches the polls too closlely will probably pay the price. Scheduling is the key to getting to the top and no matter how many cupcakes Texas and Florida can line up you still have to go through your conference and that is where the unexpected can happen. As optomistic as I am about OU they could lose three games in the blink of an eye and so could Florida. That is why they play the games. If the players start paying too much attention to what they read and see on ESPN their egos can get pretty ripe for the picking.
It is going to be an interesting season. I just hope that injuries do not play a major factor.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ...As an OU fan I'm always optimistic of an upcoming season. The capper side of me has different thoughts that are more on the pessimistic side. The idea of bringring back only 4 starters on offense concerns me. The idea that Bradford will have an almost entirely new set of WR's to throw to concerns me. The idea that RB Demarco Murray may not be totally over his leg injury, and that he's prone to getting hurt concerns me. The fact that OU was (+24) in turnover margin, and can't possibly live up to that kind of number two years in a row concerns me. And the fact that most every team that OU plays next season will be improved over the season before really concerns me. Especially since they have to play many of these teams on the road. Unless OU suffers an inordinate amount of injuries, my cappers concerns usually don't turn out to be as bad as first thought. OU will have a terrific defense. And they showed signs of things to come against Florida in the title game. So my concern for the team really isn't so much on the defensive side of the ball. I think OU's turnover margin will go down because of their offense. I don't see Bradford and the Sooners offense playing nearly as mistake-free of offensive football as they did last season. He won't always be on the same page with his receivers. And his O-Line won't always work together well. So I expect some growing pains. And how long it takes for the offense to work these problems out will depend on the young men that will be filling in the positions. And we can only guess at how well these JC's and young men take to bigtime division 1 football. Unlike this season, next year OU will simply be one of those teams that we won't know exactly how good they'll be until the season starts. Then we can go from there.

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners: You are starting to sound like Phil Steele on this turnover margin concern. I am not saying I will be betting on OU every time they play either. What I am saying is that they present a handful for any team to try to defend against. They are three deep (now maybe even 4 deep at RB) and Murray can be nursed along and rested for the money games. He will not have to be a work horse. I also see OU running more and possibly throwing less. This will set up receivers to be more open and more conducive to easier completions. I also think they will be throwing to the RB's more. As far as turnovers go, I don't think the turnover margin helped them win any of the games they won but they did hurt them in the games they lost. I look for OU to continue to out score the lesser opponents and rely more on their defense against the better opponents.
I am more concerned with third down conversions on both sides of the ball. Turnover margins are impossible to predict and I don't expect OU to be (+24) next season. If they break even against the better opponents in the more competitive games then TO's are just another statistic. I realize that we are going to have to prove it at WR but we do have a system in effect and the reload factor has always worked at that position. By the time the Texas game comes around Wilson will know how to pull the trigger on his play calling. Keep in mind we only ran for 68 yards against Texas LY. Texas will probably be down a little in the running dept. this year. I think that this year more than ever the coaching on the offensive side of the ball will be a factor. Remember I started out on the pessimistic side like you but the more I look into it the better it looks. With Top Five recruits at LB and DB OU is already becoming more SEC like. Offense was not a need this year and they filled the priority holes for the long term.
You are right though, we will get a better feel for this team as the season unfolds. Look how often Bradford got the ball to wide open receivers. Those are the kind of balls that you and I can catch. Wilson knows how to utilize what he has and I think he is licking his lips and may even have a few new tricks left in his bag.

 

[russ1945]

I keep seeing a few teams pop up on some peoples top 25 that I just do not understand.

1. Oregon - I show them having to replace their entire OL, returning only 25 of their top 44 from their two deeps, their PK and Punter. I actually have Baylor rated higher than Ore at this point.
2. Nebraska, their returning starters accounted for 15 points a game while their defense allowed 28.5 LY with only six returning starters on that side.
They lose a QB, RB, (2) WR's and 29 of their top 44 from their two deeps.
I just do not see them as a threat and no match for Kansas in the North.
3. Utah - loses a QB, RB, WR and return only five returning starters on offense with the returning players accounting for only 12 points a game. They play TCU at TCU, Oregon at Oregon, and BYU at BYU. I don't see that happening in their favor.
4. Stanford - return only 28 of their top 44 on their two deeps and only three returning starters on a defense that gave up 27.4 points a game (they lose 3 DB's). They have 6 returning on offense including QB but returning players only accounted for 17 points a game LY.
5. Ohio State - Return 27 of their top 44 on their two deeps and return offensive players who accounted for 8.6 points a game LY. They have 7 back on a good defense and they don't have that tough of a schedule but they could easily lose 3 games and with no strength of schedule could finish way out of the top 10 (where some people have them rated).
6 N.C. State - I liked this team till I took a good look. They do return 33 of their top 44 on their two deeps but returning starters on offense only accounted for 12.4 points a game LY while their defense gave up 25.5 points a game. They will have to pick it up on defense and the ACC takes no prisoners this year. They are getting closer, will do some damage, but in the end still have a ways to go.

Interested to see if people closer to those programs know something that I can't see at this point.

 

[GoSooners]

I keep seeing a few teams pop up on some peoples top 25 that I just do not understand.

1. Oregon - I show them having to replace their entire OL, returning only 25 of their top 44 from their two deeps, their PK and Punter. I actually have Baylor rated higher than Ore at this point.
2. Nebraska, their returning starters accounted for 15 points a game while their defense allowed 28.5 LY with only six returning starters on that side.
They lose a QB, RB, (2) WR's and 29 of their top 44 from their two deeps.
I just do not see them as a threat and no match for Kansas in the North.
3. Utah - loses a QB, RB, WR and return only five returning starters on offense with the returning players accounting for only 12 points a game. They play TCU at TCU, Oregon at Oregon, and BYU at BYU. I don't see that happening in their favor.
4. Stanford - return only 28 of their top 44 on their two deeps and only three returning starters on a defense that gave up 27.4 points a game (they lose 3 DB's). They have 6 returning on offense including QB but returning players only accounted for 17 points a game LY.
5. Ohio State - Return 27 of their top 44 on their two deeps and return offensive players who accounted for 8.6 points a game LY. They have 7 back on a good defense and they don't have that tough of a schedule but they could easily lose 3 games and with no strength of schedule could finish way out of the top 10 (where some people have them rated).
6 N.C. State - I liked this team till I took a good look. They do return 33 of their top 44 on their two deeps but returning starters on offense only accounted for 12.4 points a game LY while their defense gave up 25.5 points a game. They will have to pick it up on defense and the ACC takes no prisoners this year. They are getting closer, will do some damage, but in the end still have a ways to go.

Interested to see if people closer to those programs know something that I can't see at this point.

Russ...I think the team that you might be underestimating a little is Nebraska. Keep in mind that last year was Pelini's first season at Nebraska. And despite player injuries, dismissals and playing a larger number of walkons than he would have liked, the Huskers ended up tied for first with Missouri for the North. Next year I expect Nebraksa to be a good running team with a better defense than they had this season. I'm thinking they could be a top 40 defense and a top 20 rushing offense. These kinds of stats can win you a good share of games. The one position that Pelini has to worry about is QB. He's got 4 players vying for that position that have a total of 15 varsity snaps. So this will be the big question mark for the team. I know a lot of people automatically dismiss teams when they've lost their QB. But keep in mind that their QB last year Joe Ganz only played in about 15 games as a starter. I won't lie, the QB position can be huge. For some teams more than others. But OC Shawn Watson does implement a very QB friendly offense. And the running game should take a little bit of the pressure off of the position. As for the high numbers of starters lost, I've seen this before with the Huskers. And they ended up alright. I can tell you that next years team will probably be the deepest team at all posiitons than they've had in a few years. At any rate, I wouldn't totally discount them to win the North. Just look at Alabama last season. They had some atrocious numbers at the QB position, but had a great running game and defense. And actually got to number 1 for a while with that formula. It CAN be done. Especially in the weak Big 12 North.

 

[UoweDucks]

I keep seeing a few teams pop up on some peoples top 25 that I just do not understand.

1. Oregon - I show them having to replace their entire OL, returning only 25 of their top 44 from their two deeps, their PK and Punter. I actually have Baylor rated higher than Ore at this point.

Interested to see if people closer to those programs know something that I can't see at this point.

Hi Russ,
I respect the tought that you have put into this and other threads here. You've asked for things that you don't see so I'll chime in.
For starters they are not replacing their entire Oline in fact several of the players that are coming in have mulitple starts under their belts and many gametime reps, Oregon rotates linemen frequently. The kicker (Flint) is returning this year as a senior and the incoming punter was the nations #1 punter out of HS.
I had mentioned earlier in this thread that the players replacing the outgoing seniors are experienced players with several years in the program I have a very good read on their abilities and the coaches confidence or lack thereof in these guys. The Oline and any spec teams players are not positions that I am concerned with, and I do not say that lightly. Now if you had brought up the DL I would have to have agreed with you as this is the position group that I am most concerned about. Mostly in terms of experience but there is no way that the incoming player can replicate Nick Reeds performance. It is obvious that the coaches see this area as a potential for trouble as evidenced by the JC recruits. At oline are there worries? Not one JC recruited.

I see that you are most interested in your rating teams via starters lost but to say that you have Baylor rated higher than Oregon suggests to me that you should dig a bit deeper. I am here to tell you that if Oregon played Baylor in next years opener that they would win by at least 2 tds.

I'll post a note from Ted Miller of ESPN who has been a beat writer for the conf for many years, I think he sums up this debate pretty well:

Opening the Mailbag: Why does everyone love Oregon?
February 17, 2009 7:44 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
By the way, thanks for all the valentines. Oh, wait. I didn't get any. Sniff.
Dan from Bend Oregon writes: In your latest preseason projection you have Oregon ranked third in conference, knowing that their defensive and offensive lines have been gutted and their receivers and secondary are not as experienced as last years corp.So my question is what makes you believe that after losing all those starters ,in addition to firing some assistant coaches and putting everyone in limbo on the issue of next year's head coach how will the Ducks be able to hold a top three spot in the conference?
Ted Miller: There seems to be a significant amount of backlash to the national love Oregon is getting, notably from Oregon State fans -- for obvious reasons -- and California fans, who believe the Bears are the best threat to end USC's seven-season run atop the Pac-10.
The biggest reason for the love is the Holiday Bowl beatdown of Oklahoma State, led by quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, who's coming back in 2009, which capped a 10-win season.
At the Rose Bowl, I got a lot of: "Is Oregon really that good?" To which I replied, "Either that or Oklahoma State was way overrated."
A lot of it is Masoli: Good quarterbacks get attention, particularly good quarterbacks who run over defenders.
Sure, the Ducks lose a lot of good players, particularly on defense. But, Dan, you overstate the offensive losses. The line is hardly gutted: It welcomes back four players with starting experience.
As far as the coaching situation with the vague transition from Mike Bellotti to Chip Kelly and the staff changes that includes, I'm reserving judgment until after spring practices.
Might I -- and others -- revise our take on Oregon before the season begins? Possibly. But right now I like the Ducks at No. 3 in the conference and among the top-15 in the nation.