Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

Conan: Thanks for the info. Yes there is a lot of stuff to consider like signees, spring practice, etc. My goal is to try to gain an edge to get through the first couple of weeks and after that it gets much easier. All of the info you have access to and that I am accumulating has to be the heart and soul of your handicapping. Last year was one of my best years ever. I started fast and ended fast and decided to lay low on the Bowls
(had an operation to pay off before year end for taxes). I have never spent this much time this early going over this stuff. I am new to sports forums also but I can see this is a great way to share positive info once the season starts. Last year a friend told me about the forums and I went on one and a guy said he had good information on Mississippi when they played Florida ( a game I was probably not going to bet). I plunked down a little and there you have it. I would peek in on the forums once and a while and some of them are saturated with very young guys who are all talk, brash, and don't have the balls or the money to lay down the real green. I started monitoring this forum during the bowls and you and several others have a more mature and experienced approach and are all about winning bets. I appreciate the help you and others have given me.
Believe me I am all ears and I take it all in. Look forward to more of your input and I enjoy your posts.

 

[russ1945]

I spent my lunch time looking over some of the 2009 NCAA footbal schedules (those that are completed to date). I have to admit that Florida has the easiest schedule all things considered. They do not play Alabama this year, get Tenn & Flo State at home, Georgia on a neutral field, and two weeks to get ready for LSU at LSU. If they can't make it through that schedule they don't deserve to repeat.
Big 12 is weird. If Texas beats OU when they play OSU both teams could be 7-0 going into tht game.. If OU beats Texas when they play Kansas both teams could be undefeated when they play and whoever wins the Big 12 South will probably play Kansas in the Big 12 Championship. There are several other scenarios as it is not inconvceivable that OSU could beat OU and Texas and go undefeated if they get by their opener with Georgia at home.
So in my opinion the Big 12 South is as completitive as it gets.
I will also put OU's schedule up against anyones as they play BYU (on a neutral field), Tulsa, Mia Fl, Texas, O.S.U., and Kansas. If they indeed make it through that schedule undefeated they will be no.1 based on strength of schedule in the BCS poll if nothing else. If Texas gets by OU and OSU they skate on in. Big 12 champ (whoever it is) may not go undefeated and it sets up as Florida, USC or whoever gets through it all undefeated. With all the talk about OOC games it looks like the Big 12 South is plenty tough this year as everyone plays everyone in that Division every year. So either OU is brave or they are stupid but if they get through it all they will get another shot next year.

 

[SoonerBS]

Russ...You contribute a great deal to this forum and I look forward to seeing you post here next season. I wanted to let you know that SoonerBS, Conan, Ducks, me and a few others generally come on here every summer, and we have some pretty good discussions on what we expect for the upcoming season. SoonerBS is especially good at evaluating teams and making preseason predictions from each conference team. And listing the key games for them next season. Very imformative stuff. And he was dead on in many games this year. So look for him around maybe July or August. And then we can all compare notes. The great thing about this place is most of us live in different georgraphical locations, and many of us can offer insight from our region that the others may not know. For instance Conan and Ducks are great west coast cappers. So if say some team from the Big 12 was playing somebody out west in an early out of conference game, we should be on top of things by offering each other info about our respective teams. This place gets more and more crowded every year with a lot of nonsense posters after the season begins. But most of the time we learn more from just a few of us posting before the season begins, and offering some intelligent opinions from people who have done this for a long time. For the most part I usually take the next few months off, and then get on here and maybe offer a few insights after the spring practices. Looking forward to your evaluations of these teams. So far from what I've seen it's very good info that I'll use for next season.

One of the best things anyone can do who wants to get a leg up on the college football season is exactly what GoSooners is telling you in this post -- check in this forum during the later Spring through Summer. There is no substitute in the handicapping world for doing your homework and research ahead of the game. GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and I help each other tremendously in preparing for the upcoming season and that is why it is no wonder that we're usually the ones pulling the most profit during the season.

I had several guys ask me over the course of last season, "What do I need to do to learn how to handicap college football?" I told them to tail me for this season because they were already too far behind to cap football. Then, I told them to start reading and digesting information about all the teams from April to September. That is literally what it takes. These guys that come in here or on any other site during the season and start throwing out their picks are doing nothing but pulling them out of their ass and I don't even open up their threads. Handicapping college football is hard enough whenever you put the time in to research it properly, but it's a crap shoot if you start whenever the season starts.

I know that there are likely some guys I am missing, but GS, Conan and Ducks have gained my respect because I know they put in the time and I can trust their information and opinions.

I don't start seriously capping the next season until Spring practices roll around. For one, I think it's good to take a 3 month break to clear the head and give my brain a rest. But, whenever Spring practices start finishing up and information starts flowing at a steady pace, I'm spending several hours a day reading and digesting everything I can. I log useful articles and information in a forum on my site (can't tell you where that is out of respect for Rx) so I can look back on them through the Summer and keep my thoughts organized. Anyone can do this simply by copying and pasting articles to a word processer and saving the files.

Things that are important to me to watch for:

1.) Offensive and defensive lines. Returning experience on the lines is very important. I don't care how good your skill players are, they are ineffective without a strong line to anchor the offense or defense. Experienced offensive lines will give a new, inexperienced QB some time to think and make better decisions. Experienced defensive lines will strike fear in the heart of QBs. Teams with good lines and returning experience in this area automatically get bumped to the higher level in their respective conferences in my handicapping.

2.) Returning QB -- especially a good one. Let's face it, of all the returning skill positions, a person would have to be a complete moron to say that this one is not the most important. Teams that return an experienced QB automatically have a leg up on their competitors, especially in the first half of the season.

3.) Running backs and defensive backs. With the way every team seems to be going to spread offenses and the passing game, DBs and how good they are at covering passes are vitally important. Also, teams that can establish the running game open up their passing game, so good, experienced RBs are very important as well.

4.) Returning experience. Obviously returning experience is important in the college game. Some people tend to rank this #1 in their preseason handicapping, but every year I am continued to be amazed about how prepared these new recruits seem to be entering the collegiate level and how quick they catch on. That makes watching the recruiting scene (one of the least favorite aspects of handicapping for me) very important in the offseason. Still, we all know that the teams that have experience returning is going to have a leg up over teams that are replacing a bunch of starters.

5.) Past statistics, transfers, injuries, coaching changes, suspensions, team unity in offseason, etc. Every one of these factors play a part in offseason handicapping. Again, some cappers put more weight on these factors than I do. I factor in all these things for an overall evaluation of each team, but they have to be monitored as they trickle in through the offseason leading all the way up to the first game.

These are some of the key areas I continue to look at through the offseason and preseason. I evaluate all the factors of every team. The better I know every team in every conference, the better I can evaluate the strengths of conferences and make plays on non-conference games. That is why I love Conan and Ducks perspective on PAC 10, Mountain West and WAC.

Again, I can't emphasize this enough, if you don't want to put the time in on handicapping college football, then go tail Marc Lawrence and his magic trends all season or Dr. Bob's power rankings. I don't do trends or power rankings, I handicap teams. It takes a lot of work, but it is very rewarding.

 

[SoonerBS]

Guys, it's too early to be getting solid numbers on "returning starters." I'd wait until after Spring practices. Some of these so called "returning starters" will be replaced by improving players in the Spring. So any numbers you have right now could be misleading.

 

[bigtendominator]

Guys, it's too early to be getting solid numbers on "returning starters." I'd wait until after Spring practices. Some of these so called "returning starters" will be replaced by improving players in the Spring. So any numbers you have right now could be misleading.

Correct.

A few will go down with injury and flunking out and other factors.

 

[russ1945]

SoonerBS: I have been handicapping successfully for over 40 years and I know and use Mark Lawrence and others for all of the information I am myself accumulating at this time. I will in fact check them out and compare them with what I have accumulated at that time. I have always considered all of the factors you bring out in your post especially returning QB's the first couple weeks of the season. I have more time on my hands now to devote to this stuff and I plan to suppliment my income after retirement with a full time pursuit. I among other things can justify about any bet I ever won but I can never justify a bet I ever lost. I am even looking back at some of last seasons losses to see if info I have accumulated lately would have changed the way I bet back then. I would like to join you guys next season and exchange information. I am new to forums (old school) but I recognize that there are people like you, me, and the others you mentioned, who see this forum as a vehicle to expand our
handicapping horizons. I still have to analyze the incoming freshmen, wait on spring practices, and wait on the publications from Lawrence and the rest. Meanwhile by August I will have personally visited every schools website and gone over the rosters, schedules, and also I need to look at coaching changes including assistants. Being new to forums in general, and this on in particular, I am glad to find some people who think like me.
Thanks for your response.

 

[trentmoney]

Russ-

good to see you out bright and early...i usually take a few weeks off but am already peeking around to see some possible early value...

i'm not going to toot my own horn-all my plays are documented from the last 3 years on this site if interested-3 winning years..!! i will say that i am 5-0 on season win totals over the last 2 years (mostly very easy wins as well) and had LSU 12-1 in 07 and UF +650 last yearm, again both documented here...the reason why i am telling you this is for one reason:

don't try to be a hero!
UF is LOADED this year.
I took them to win it all last year
they were the best team in the nation
rather than hedge in the NC game i layed -4
jan 8 was a very profitable day for me..!!

they will be even better next year imo (obviously i can't predict the future and anything can happen)

if i get anything close to 5-1 i will be all over them
i am not a gator fan...i am a handicapper
and i'm trying to win a NC future play for the 3rd straight year

Harvin is a big-time player, but there's a reason why UF's individual stats (rushing, receiving) don't end up tops in the country...they spread the ball around so much...sometimes they put up 50 pts and no one has more than 10 rushes or 5 receptions. that is the nature of their offense, and the amount of talent at their skill postitions

imo you're better off playing some of these other teams to win their conferences as futures than to win the NC...UF has the naional spotlight, play in the toughest conference, and has the respect from pollsters where even if they lose a game, as long as they win the SEC title game they will go to the NC...they could get in even with 2 losses...i wouldn't be surprised if usc loses 2 (@ oh st, @ oregon, @ cal), b12 will beat each other up with OU, UT, OK ST, and the other conferences will not get the respect, quite possibly even with UF having 2 losses as long as they win the SEC title game, although i would be shocked if they did lose 2 regular season games.

:toast:

 

[russ1945]

trentmoney: Nice to meet you. I am not and never will be a hero, believe me. Just because I am from Oklahoma has nothing to do with my assessment of Florida and I know all about reloading and how great a coach they have. I have never said they won't be in the BCSNCG and with their schedule they have a great chance at getting there. Their only obstacle is probably LSU. As far as Harvin goes, yes they spread the wealth, usually. When the going got tough they gave it to Harvin who had 61% of their yardage in their loss to Mississippi. By the way I had Mississippi that day. I am not anti Florida (although some of their front running fans are hard to deal with on this forum sometimes) and I am not sour grapes about OU losing. I have been to more than one rodeo though and I think I will take the field against Florida as far as making to the big one.

As far as futures go I do not bet them. They tie up too much money for too long period of time and and 4 or 5 to 1 I can do more with that money on a week to week basis. Maybe you bet more than I would on them and the wait may be worth it for you.

It's good to meet you and I hope that during the year we can chew the fat and sort some facts. Good luck on your futures bets.

 

[GoSooners]

One of the best things anyone can do who wants to get a leg up on the college football season is exactly what GoSooners is telling you in this post -- check in this forum during the later Spring through Summer. There is no substitute in the handicapping world for doing your homework and research ahead of the game. GoSooners, Conan, UOweDucks and I help each other tremendously in preparing for the upcoming season and that is why it is no wonder that we're usually the ones pulling the most profit during the season.

I had several guys ask me over the course of last season, "What do I need to do to learn how to handicap college football?" I told them to tail me for this season because they were already too far behind to cap football. Then, I told them to start reading and digesting information about all the teams from April to September. That is literally what it takes. These guys that come in here or on any other site during the season and start throwing out their picks are doing nothing but pulling them out of their ass and I don't even open up their threads. Handicapping college football is hard enough whenever you put the time in to research it properly, but it's a crap shoot if you start whenever the season starts.

I know that there are likely some guys I am missing, but GS, Conan and Ducks have gained my respect because I know they put in the time and I can trust their information and opinions.

I don't start seriously capping the next season until Spring practices roll around. For one, I think it's good to take a 3 month break to clear the head and give my brain a rest. But, whenever Spring practices start finishing up and information starts flowing at a steady pace, I'm spending several hours a day reading and digesting everything I can. I log useful articles and information in a forum on my site (can't tell you where that is out of respect for Rx) so I can look back on them through the Summer and keep my thoughts organized. Anyone can do this simply by copying and pasting articles to a word processer and saving the files.

SoonerBS....We'll have to get together for a few rounds of golf this summer and put our heads together for next season. Right now I've got carpal tunnel in my hand from all of my years of hard work...cough cough..But I should be ready to go by around May. And we should know more by then after the spring practices. Right now, I don't see a whole lot to like about the Big 12 North. Every team loses either a lot of players off of their defenses or some key players on offense. I know Kansas is favored, but they are far from being head and shoulders above anybody else in that division. I only count about 4 starters returning on their defense. And they lose their offensive line. Colorado has most of their offense intact. But I don't know if that's good or bad. And they lose about everybody on defense, which was the only strong part of their team last season. Nebraska loses some key players too. But if there was anybody in that division who is able to reload better than anybody else it would be the Cornshuckers. Whatever the case, it should be another Big 12 South win in the championship game. I may get a better feel for the North in a couple months. The South also looks to be pretty wide open. With OSU having home games against Texas Tech and Texas, they'll have more say in what happens in that division next season. With the amount of starters the Pokes return, I don't see them losing to Texas, OU and TT like they did this season. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they pull a Texas Tech and send the South into another 3 way tailspin next year. At any rate, we'll know a little more in about 3 or 4 months. And we can go from there.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ-

good to see you out bright and early...i usually take a few weeks off but am already peeking around to see some possible early value...

i'm not going to toot my own horn-all my plays are documented from the last 3 years on this site if interested-3 winning years..!! i will say that i am 5-0 on season win totals over the last 2 years (mostly very easy wins as well) and had LSU 12-1 in 07 and UF +650 last yearm, again both documented here...the reason why i am telling you this is for one reason:

don't try to be a hero!
UF is LOADED this year.
I took them to win it all last year
they were the best team in the nation
rather than hedge in the NC game i layed -4
jan 8 was a very profitable day for me..!!

they will be even better next year imo (obviously i can't predict the future and anything can happen)

if i get anything close to 5-1 i will be all over them
i am not a gator fan...i am a handicapper
and i'm trying to win a NC future play for the 3rd straight year

Harvin is a big-time player, but there's a reason why UF's individual stats (rushing, receiving) don't end up tops in the country...they spread the ball around so much...sometimes they put up 50 pts and no one has more than 10 rushes or 5 receptions. that is the nature of their offense, and the amount of talent at their skill postitions

imo you're better off playing some of these other teams to win their conferences as futures than to win the NC...UF has the naional spotlight, play in the toughest conference, and has the respect from pollsters where even if they lose a game, as long as they win the SEC title game they will go to the NC...they could get in even with 2 losses...i wouldn't be surprised if usc loses 2 (@ oh st, @ oregon, @ cal), b12 will beat each other up with OU, UT, OK ST, and the other conferences will not get the respect, quite possibly even with UF having 2 losses as long as they win the SEC title game, although i would be shocked if they did lose 2 regular season games.

:toast:

Trent...I doubt seriously if the Gators will go off any worse than 7-2 to win the national championship. By the process of elimination with USC possibly being down a notch next season, the Big 10 proving they can't get it done against the SEC, and the Big 12 (OU) giving the Gators their best shot and coming up a bit short, I just don't see anybody except possibly an in-conference team who will be able to dethrone them. Barring injuries I think Florida is probably good for one more year of domination before they lose most of this team and the SEC improves to the point of overtaking them. But unless we have a rapture between now and next season, Tebow will continue to walk on water for one more season. As long as Meyer stays there, and with the recruiting area he has to work with, I can see Florida being like the Miami team of the 80's. They'll be a serious national title contender 3 out of every 4 years. That is if Lane Kiffin isn't another Meyer or Carroll in waiting. Anyway, with what the Gators return, I just don't see them as a bet worth making. I prefer the bigger payouts in these kinds of plays. Preferably at least 6-1 or better.

 

[russ1945]

Conan/UoweDucks: Ok guys I need some help. I have some questions concerning University of Arizona. I am showing them to be returning 17 of 22 on their two deep chart on the offense, and returning 18 of 22 on their two deep on the defense.
Offense: They lose Tuitama but he three 23 TD's with 8 int. and looks replaceable. They list Matt Scott as his backup and he was only 7/11 for 84yds and (1) TD but he was their third leading rusher with 188 yards on 23 caries for 8.2 YPC and (2) TD's. They return 7 of their top 8 WR's and players who rushed for 30 of 33 TD's last year. Is Matt Scott the heir apparent and what do you guys know about him.
Defensively they lose two starting LB's, one CB, and one Safety so that does concern me.
Could they be a sleeper?

 

[SoonerBS]

SoonerBS....We'll have to get together for a few rounds of golf this summer and put our heads together for next season. Right now I've got carpal tunnel in my hand from all of my years of hard work...cough cough..But I should be ready to go by around May. And we should know more by then after the spring practices. Right now, I don't see a whole lot to like about the Big 12 North. Every team loses either a lot of players off of their defenses or some key players on offense. I know Kansas is favored, but they are far from being head and shoulders above anybody else in that division. I only count about 4 starters returning on their defense. And they lose their offensive line. Colorado has most of their offense intact. But I don't know if that's good or bad. And they lose about everybody on defense, which was the only strong part of their team last season. Nebraska loses some key players too. But if there was anybody in that division who is able to reload better than anybody else it would be the Cornshuckers. Whatever the case, it should be another Big 12 South win in the championship game. I may get a better feel for the North in a couple months. The South also looks to be pretty wide open. With OSU having home games against Texas Tech and Texas, they'll have more say in what happens in that division next season. With the amount of starters the Pokes return, I don't see them losing to Texas, OU and TT like they did this season. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they pull a Texas Tech and send the South into another 3 way tailspin next year. At any rate, we'll know a little more in about 3 or 4 months. And we can go from there.

A golf game in the future is a definite. Right now, Golf is all I am thinking about. Looking at your assessment and basing it on what I know now, I have to agree. Once again, the Big 12 South will be the heavy end of the conference.

I'll be in touch with you.

 

[Conan]

Conan/UoweDucks: Ok guys I need some help. I have some questions concerning University of Arizona. I am showing them to be returning 17 of 22 on their two deep chart on the offense, and returning 18 of 22 on their two deep on the defense.
Offense: They lose Tuitama but he three 23 TD's with 8 int. and looks replaceable. They list Matt Scott as his backup and he was only 7/11 for 84yds and (1) TD but he was their third leading rusher with 188 yards on 23 caries for 8.2 YPC and (2) TD's. They return 7 of their top 8 WR's and players who rushed for 30 of 33 TD's last year. Is Matt Scott the heir apparent and what do you guys know about him.
Defensively they lose two starting LB's, one CB, and one Safety so that does concern me.
Could they be a sleeper?

Zona's main problem was their young defense last year, but it should improve this season. You gotta like Sonny Dykes as their OC because he's really put together an offensive juggernaut, among the top 3 or 4 offenses in the Pac-10, and that should continue to be the case even with a new QB next year. Whoever it will be is going to need some protection in a big way.

But to address your question about next year, I don't see them improving on their record very much if at all. Maybe they'll get to 7 wins next season. I haven't studied their schedule in depth yet but I can tell you that their '08 schedule was tailor made to land them in a bowl game and save Stoops job. '09 isn't going to be so easy.

They seem to be unable to finish off their opponents as evidenced by too many losses in close games. At times they don't even seem to show up. They tend to lose games they should win. They are a very irregular team. I can't put my finger on it exactly but the bottom line is that they don't seem to have a killer instinct and can't seem to finish off their opponents. For that they will end up somewhere in the middle of the conference standings when all is said and done.

You want a sleeper? I give you Stanford. They return their key skill players however they will also be starting a new QB, and they have a ways to go yet. But so far they've improved every season under Harbaugh like a clock right on schedule. He's a very very good coach and recruiter and he's landed the #2 recruiting class in the Pac-10 behind USC. Maybe it's not their time quite yet but they've been moving on up.

 

[russ1945]

Conan: Thanks for the info. I have not studied Stanford yet. I just happen to start studying Arizona the other day and it looked like they could be a sleeper with that many returning. They held USC to 17. I do not like it when you lose a QB with as much experience as Tuitama but a QB who could run as well as throw could give Arizona a new look.
I will be looking at Stanford soon and I will heed your advise.
I am really looking for teams that could be flying under the radar at least early next season. Arizona rated higher than I would have thought but when they lose a QB and all the WR's come back a team like that is harder to rate.

 

[russ1945]

Conan: I checked out Stanford at lunch today and they have some problems. They return 8 starters and 17/22 from their two deep on offense but returning starters only accounted for 29 TD's (17 pg). They only return 3 starters on defense and 11/22 from their two deep on a defense that gave up 24 pg. They return a QB who only threw 13 TD's.
It is going to take a lot of intangibles to turn those numbers around much less quickly. Arizona rated much higher from my perspective with the obvious task of overcoming a new QB.

 

[Conan]

Conan: Thanks for the info. I have not studied Stanford yet. I just happen to start studying Arizona the other day and it looked like they could be a sleeper with that many returning. They held USC to 17. I do not like it when you lose a QB with as much experience as Tuitama but a QB who could run as well as throw could give Arizona a new look.
I will be looking at Stanford soon and I will heed your advise.
I am really looking for teams that could be flying under the radar at least early next season. Arizona rated higher than I would have thought but when they lose a QB and all the WR's come back a team like that is harder to rate.

Don't forget to look at their schedules too Russ. One team that has it pretty easy this season is UW. They get LSU at home but that's about it in terms of added difficulty. I think their schedule this season is nothing like before (#1 SOS in the US 2 years in a row.) Jake Locker will also be healthy again. Him getting hurt last year ruined the season for Willingham and the Huskies. Locker is basically all they got. I am interested to see what Sarkisian can do in his first year. I think they will improve in all aspects.

As long as we are on the subject of Washington, Wulff at WSU has a year head start on Sarkisian. He was a 1-AA winner as a HC at EWU so that should also be interesting. Last season both Washington schools were like free money fading them. I don't think it will be so easy this year.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...I doubt seriously if the Gators will go off any worse than 7-2 to win the national championship. By the process of elimination with USC possibly being down a notch next season, the Big 10 proving they can't get it done against the SEC, and the Big 12 (OU) giving the Gators their best shot and coming up a bit short, I just don't see anybody except possibly an in-conference team who will be able to dethrone them. Barring injuries I think Florida is probably good for one more year of domination before they lose most of this team and the SEC improves to the point of overtaking them. But unless we have a rapture between now and next season, Tebow will continue to walk on water for one more season. As long as Meyer stays there, and with the recruiting area he has to work with, I can see Florida being like the Miami team of the 80's. They'll be a serious national title contender 3 out of every 4 years. That is if Lane Kiffin isn't another Meyer or Carroll in waiting. Anyway, with what the Gators return, I just don't see them as a bet worth making. I prefer the bigger payouts in these kinds of plays. Preferably at least 6-1 or better.

i would take them at 9-2 but no less (if i would take them @ 5-1 it would be stupid not to @ 9-2)

the year USC beat OU they opened at pinnacle @ 9-2...i knew they were a lock to get to the NC game, but i had to post up at pinny so i didn't want to tie up my money...i now have a few books where i play on credit so tying up money is not a problem...in fact, after UF won the NC i checked my ticket and the date i made my future play was July 14!!

think about it this way:
the day we took maryland +14 over Cal i played the ML for +600...that was my single biggest win on one game (i normally don't play ML). for the NC game, i had UF +650 and they were a -4 fav..!! granted, it's comparing apples to oranges, but for that one day, i had UF ML +650...that turned out to be my single biggest payout on one game, since i also layed the points. but the bottom line is the season played out like i expected: get to the SEC champ game, and with a win they play for the NC...not bad ROI at +650.

this decade has been marked by runs of dominance:

UM
2000: one loss and DD win over UF in sugar bowl
2001: undefeated and dominant performance in NC game
2002: undefeated until OT loss in NC game still debated
after close week 2 loss @ wash in 2000 until OT loss in NC game in 2002 UM did not lose!! As dominant a 30+ stretch as you can have.

USC
2002: Heisman winner Palmer leads dominant performance in Orange bowl
2003: split Nat'l title
2004: dominant performance in NC game
2005: last minute loss to vince young/texas in NC game

UF
2006: dominant performance in NC game
2007: heisman winner in down year
2008: nat'l title caps off season where only loss is by one point!!

i think it continues for UF to close out the decade...they really have no weakness.
think about this:
the biggest defensive play against OU was the 4th down stop in the backfield at the goal line...that play was made by torrey davis...he was the #2 DL recruit in 2007, didn't play that year, got in meyer's doghouse before 2008 season for off the field stuff, and was basically their #5 DL all season, only playing in the 4th qtr of blowouts (when you get in urban's doghouse, you don't get out...!) the only reason why he played so much in the NC game was because of injuries to Patchan (big-time recruit and true FR starter) and antwine...that just gives you a sense of the talent and DEPTH of this team. in 2010 they will be a top program, but just a contender...in 2009 they are head and shoulders above everyone else...i am not a gator fan (i took mich +11 in capital one bowl new year's day 2008). but i certainly can see and appreciate greatness and dominance, and for one more year, those adjectives apply to Florida.

 

[trentmoney]

Conan/UoweDucks: Ok guys I need some help. I have some questions concerning University of Arizona. I am showing them to be returning 17 of 22 on their two deep chart on the offense, and returning 18 of 22 on their two deep on the defense.
Offense: They lose Tuitama but he three 23 TD's with 8 int. and looks replaceable. They list Matt Scott as his backup and he was only 7/11 for 84yds and (1) TD but he was their third leading rusher with 188 yards on 23 caries for 8.2 YPC and (2) TD's. They return 7 of their top 8 WR's and players who rushed for 30 of 33 TD's last year. Is Matt Scott the heir apparent and what do you guys know about him.
Defensively they lose two starting LB's, one CB, and one Safety so that does concern me.
Could they be a sleeper?

Russ-
i'm no expert on P10 but i have been to the last two UA/ASU games and my 2nd biggest play last season was oregon -3.5 over UA, a game where oregon was up by 30, then not covering with 4 minutes to go, only to win by 10 (heart attack city..!!). here's my take on arizona:

they are a passing team (which i never like in the first place) with a brand new starter after their 4 yr starter graduates. their rbs, while productive last season, are not "wow" type backs who can carry their team against a good defense, which is very important with a new QB (think jahvid best, shonn greene/iowa, beanie wells, quizz rodgers...grigsby and antolin are not of this class). they also lose their best OL who protects the blind-side, again important for 1st yr starting QB.

they do return their DL, but they are on the small side and were succeptible to good running teams last year. a lot can happen, and who knows what the spread will be, but circle this date on your calendar:
sept 19 @ iowa
az is the type of finesse team, light on both lines, that the hawkeyes gobble up at kinnick...

they also play 5 p10 road games this year, as compared to 4 last yr...bottom line, UA and mike stoops is not the type of team that inspires a lot of confidence imo...i rate them in the bottom half of their conference, behind usc, oregon, cal, oregon st, and very possibly behind ucla and stanford

good luck

 

[russ1945]

Conan: Stanford's last four games are at home against Oregon, California, and Notre Dame, with an away game at USC thrown in too. Ouch. They play at Oregon St and Arizona before that.
Arizona has to travel to Iowa, Oregon St, and Wash after two cupcake games. If they made it through that they could be dangerous. So it looks like a new QB starting on the road at Iowa and we will probably know all we need to know.
I know you guys don't like Stoops as a head coach but he knows defense. I would give anything to have him back at OU instead of Venables.

 

[Conan]

Conan: Stanford's last four games are at home against Oregon, California, and Notre Dame, with an away game at USC thrown in too. Ouch. They play at Oregon St and Arizona before that.
Arizona has to travel to Iowa, Oregon St, and Wash after two cupcake games. If they made it through that they could be dangerous. So it looks like a new QB starting on the road at Iowa and we will probably know all we need to know.
I know you guys don't like Stoops as a head coach but he knows defense. I would give anything to have him back at OU instead of Venables.

Well you are right about how I feel about him. I hear he goes off the deep end and gets kinda mean... strict. Maybe he just can't handle the pressure of dealing with the HC job.

I also know what you are saying about his defenses, especially when he coached at OU. I remember it well. What I think is a little weird is that Zona has become known more as an offense oriented team ever since Sonny Dykes' took over coaching the offense and it never used to be that way.

The Cats have been known for a strong defense ever since Dick Tomey coached there about 10 years ago and even before that. Remember "desert swarm?" I would have never expected this from Stoops, but it's true that Zona's defense has become a weakness of theirs over the past several years. This will be his 6th year there. So what's with that?