Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

rolltideroll: thanks for the update. From the outside looking in it looked to me like Parker was slow making decisions. If he was locking onto one receiver most of the time that makes it harder. I was surprised to see him in that game last weekend.
I really thought Alabama had Florida last year. When your guy tried to catch that kickoff and stepped out of bounds at the three yard line that changed the whole game around. I am thinking that since LSU found a QB in their bowl that gives them a big shot in the arm in the SEC.
Do you see every team in the SEC gunning for Florida? Do you see Florida as the immovable force? They lost Harvin and Murphy and that's 28 TD's.
Being deep is one thing, replacing those two guys is another. I personally think it would be easier to replace Tebow if the new guy is a pure passer.

Also any team that does not have a stud at QB is penalized right from the get go. Not being able to convert on third downs falls on the QB most of the time. If Alabama would have had a McCoy or a Bradford last year I think Florida would have had a really long day against you guys.

 

[Rolltideroll]

I surely dont think there is anybody from the east that will keep Florida out of the Sec championship game.I would go so far as to say there about a 90% lock to win the east.Their best chance to lose would be at LSU or in the Sec championship game vs Bama/Lsu/Ole Miss-maybe.
Even Still Florida would be a solid favorite,sorta like this year against Alabama.Alabama had a great shot headed into the the 4th quarter.Florida just made the plays.Florida is just better than Alabama and will be better next year as well.But they are not invincible by any means.

 

[CoachCB]

RT, the SEC West is going to be fun to watch. Snead is going to be very good next year. Nutt has done an outstanding job and is recruiting very well. I predict they'll win the West....but, I am interested in watching what Bama has, especially at QB. LSU may have "found a QB"....but they also lost a shit-load on a very porous defense. They gave up 50+ to UF and UGA....and they lost a bunch! They do have the #1 ranked recruiting class (per Rivals)....but those guys won't make much of an impact this year....


Russ,

You are harping WAY too much on the Harvin/Murphy TD's stat (and the correct number is 24 TD's. Murphy had 7 TD receptions. Harvin 10 rushing/7 receiving).

Sure, losing Harvin and Murphy will hurt. However, UF played 2 full games (including the SEC Championship Game) w/ out Harvin and a few partial games. Additionally, of the 24 TD's scored by those two only 15 were scored in SEC games. The other 9 Harvin scored 1 each vs. FSU, Oklahoma, Miami and Citadel and Murphy scored 1 each in all 5 of UF's non-conference games. Very replacable.

In the games that Harvin was injured or did not play much due to injury, Demps, Rainy and James filled the void. None of these players have the talent of Harvin (who is essentially a HOF UF football player). So, sure his loss will hurt. But as I said before, you are harping way too much on what these two brought to the table in the grand scheme of UF's offense.

Make no mistake about it, if Tebow gets injured, there goes the season. 2010 will be a 2-4 loss season for UF (hopefully not a 5 loss). Brantley is a passing QB and the offense will have to be adjusted to fit his style. He won't be the threat Tebow is to run.



2008 UF season stats (click on the PDF file):

http://www.gatorzone.com/football/stats.php

 

[russ1945]

I got my stats from the Gatorzone originally. 28 TD's include 4 scored by Kestahn Moore who scored 4 TDs to add to Harvins and Murphys 24. I have been checking the home teams rosters and stats against ESPN's stats. You can access each teams info thru Rivals.com also. Harvin and Murphy accounted for around 30% of Floridas total yards and TD's last year. I know Harvin missed games and especially against Alabama but Alabama threw only 9 TD's all year and they played Florida nip and tuck until the KR stepped out of bounds on the 3 yd line. With Harvin Flo wins easily. Ala threw an interception and Florida outgained Alabama by a whoping 22 net yards rushing and passing. I do not call that dominating and I say that is how much they missed Harvin. It may seem to you now that I am over emphasizing what they have to replace but I think as they begin to rely on Tebow more they will have trouble matching last years dominance. Can they still win their conference, yes. Can they win the Big One again, only if they ACTUALLY replace what they lost. Whether or not they can remains to be seen. Not only were these two players stat makers they were play makers. That is where I have doubts. I would like to think Florida is deep and I think they will recruit well. However, it will take a while for this team to find it's way and it puts more pressure on Tebow. Having those guys took a lot of pressure off of Tebow LY. I am not saying I am right and you are wrong. What I am saying is show me the money. There are enough people on Floridas bandwagon so I am one of the few. I am sure you know the SEC better than me but I am a numbers kind of guy and all the numbers tell me that Florida has there work cut out replacing the few players they are losing.

 

[russ1945]

Help! So far I have evaluated 16 teams in the preliminary evaluaton for which I have made no adjustments yet. I just rated Nebraska and they only rate (.5). By comparison Florida rates (31.5) and Kansas 19.9. I know they lost their starting QB, RB, and (2) WR. and only 4 return on offense. They return starters on Off that accounted for only 15 points a game LY and return 7 starters on Def which allowed 28.5 a game LY. Can someone help me here. Can it be that bad in Nebraska. Their ESPN roster list 72 freshmen which I suppose includes redshirts. Who are the heir apparents to fill all these holes. Wow. I know I am from Oklahoma but I assure you this is based on numbers only, without prejudice.

 

[Flsunman]

rolltideroll: thanks for the update. From the outside looking in it looked to me like Parker was slow making decisions. If he was locking onto one receiver most of the time that makes it harder. I was surprised to see him in that game last weekend.
I really thought Alabama had Florida last year. When your guy tried to catch that kickoff and stepped out of bounds at the three yard line that changed the whole game around. I am thinking that since LSU found a QB in their bowl that gives them a big shot in the arm in the SEC.
Do you see every team in the SEC gunning for Florida? Do you see Florida as the immovable force? They lost Harvin and Murphy and that's 28 TD's.
Being deep is one thing, replacing those two guys is another. I personally think it would be easier to replace Tebow if the new guy is a pure passer.

Also any team that does not have a stud at QB is penalized right from the get go. Not being able to convert on third downs falls on the QB most of the time. If Alabama would have had a McCoy or a Bradford last year I think Florida would have had a really long day against you guys.

WOW... I'm really confused. You say it's easier to replace Tebow over murphy and harvin and then you go onto to say that any team who doesn't have a stud QB is penalized? Make up your mind dude.

Also, Harvin didn't play vs bama... if he's sooo hard to replace would having a Bradford or Mccoy(both looked very average vs good defense, imagine that!!) really have mattered? I'm so confused, we beat Bradford and he took a physical pounding all game.

Ok, I think I get it... If we gave OU 5 downs vs 4, OU would of won for sure!!!hno:

 

[russ1945]

WOW... I'm really confused. You say it's easier to replace Tebow over murphy and harvin and then you go onto to say that any team who doesn't have a stud QB is penalized? Make up your mind dude.

Also, Harvin didn't play vs bama... if he's sooo hard to replace would having a Bradford or Mccoy(both looked very average vs good defense, imagine that!!) really have mattered? I'm so confused, we beat Bradford and he took a physical pounding all game.

Ok, I think I get it... If we gave OU 5 downs vs 4, OU would of won for sure!!!hno:

Flsunman: Well you finally got something right, you really are confused but I don't think anyone on this Forum can give you the help you need.
By the way, Florida had 22 more total yards than Alabama, I think they missed Harvin. That is against a QB who threw (9) TD's all year. Get real.

 

[Flsunman]

Flsunman: Well you finally got something right, you really are confused but I don't think anyone on this Forum can give you the help you need.
By the way, Florida had 22 more total yards than Alabama, I think they missed Harvin. That is against a QB who threw (9) TD's all year. Get real.

Dude... you still avoided the question because it wasn't in your favor. You got called out for being a hypocrite and you can't respond... I understand, no worries.

 

[Flsunman]

Fact is, and I mean this in the nicest way, you should stop posting stuff regarding Florida football, it's very obvious you know little to nothing when it comes to them and I lean more to the nothing side. I live in Dallas and attend at least 2 games every year.

Bottom line is... Harvin won't be hard to replace, Murphy is a wild card though. David Nelson and Riley Cooper really stepped up and UF redshirted 3 other wide receivers. Let's not forget Andre Dubose and Nukeese Richardson will be coming in next year. Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore return as well. Hernandez(guy who torched you in National Title) is back at the tight end spot. We'll be just fine. You dont seem to understand that ROLES CHANGE when players leave. Deonte Thompson was a redshirt freshman and they are expecting huge things from him. Roles change is my point, and you can't seem to grasp that.

 

[russ1945]

Fact is, and I mean this in the nicest way, you should stop posting stuff regarding Florida football, it's very obvious you know little to nothing when it comes to them and I lean more to the nothing side. I live in Dallas and attend at least 2 games every year.

Bottom line is... Harvin won't be hard to replace, Murphy is a wild card though. David Nelson and Riley Cooper really stepped up and UF redshirted 3 other wide receivers. Let's not forget Andre Dubose and Nukeese Richardson will be coming in next year. Deonte Thompson and Carl Moore return as well. Hernandez(guy who torched you in National Title) is back at the tight end spot. We'll be just fine. You dont seem to understand that ROLES CHANGE when players leave. Deonte Thompson was a redshirt freshman and they are expecting huge things from him. Roles change is my point, and you can't seem to grasp that.

Saying Harvin will not be hard to replace and insinuating that Murphy may be harder to replace is absolute nonsense. I understand role changing but sometimes it is an improvement and some times it is not. I can grasp just about anything you can put out there but not about Harvin. You plug in someone who can match Harvins output against Mississippi when the heat was on and I can definitely grasp that. I tend to grasp things that are real much quicker and easier than things that are at best hypothetical and at worst absurd.

 

[Flsunman]

Saying Harvin will not be hard to replace and insinuating that Murphy may be harder to replace is absolute nonsense. I understand role changing but sometimes it is an improvement and some times it is not. I can grasp just about anything you can put out there but not about Harvin. You plug in someone who can match Harvins output against Mississippi when the heat was on and I can definitely grasp that. I tend to grasp things that are real much quicker and easier than things that are at best hypothetical and at worst absurd.

Guess what... Murphy is FASTER than Harvin. Murphy is a 6'2" speed demon who was UF's BEST deep route runner. Please don't debate me on UF football, you will get whored, I promise you that.

Yes, Harvin is better than Murphy, but UF has 2 or 3 guys in the same mold as Harvin(not as good obviously, but serviceable enough) and an 5 star recruit by the name of Andre Dubose who "may be" the next Percy. I promise you, Murphy's deep speed down the sideline and GREAT hands on anything thrown his was will be a hair tougher to replace.

 

[russ1945]

I am probably stressing the Harvin thing a little but I do see it as something that a band aid will not cover. I am from Oklahoma and like another Oklahoman, Will Rogers, all I know about Florida is what I read in the papers (or garner from sources like ESPN and Rivals). I am a numbers guy through and through. So far I have researched 17 teams and the numbers loss for Harvin and Murphy (in terms of lost TD's) stand out. It is not an anti Florida thing, or a bitter thing, it is a numbers thing. I am going to pull for Florida all season long and probably lay green on them too. At the same time I am going to do the same thing with OU in hopes they get a rematch. I am not sour grapes (which go great with outmeal). I am listening while I continue to argue my point. I have been watching teams try to reload for at least four decades and sometimes you just get a misfire. In this case the numbers have faces (Harvin and Murphy), in your scenario you have faces and no numbers. That is where I am coming from.

 

[UoweDucks]

Conan: a big reason USC has my highest initial rating so far is that their defense held their opponents to 9 pts a game. I think Sanchez can be replaced and whoever replaces him will have any easier transition as he has a new QB coach to help him make it. It may be an easier system to learn. and there are 8 returning starters on that side of the ball. The defense has only 5 returning starters so that figure will probably go up from last year. I have USC down for returning players who accounted for 27 points a game so anything up from there will probably seal the deal.
I also show Oregon returning only 3 to their offense and only five return on def for a team that gave up 28 points a game last year. I don't see USC having a problem dealing with those numbers.
As far as my research goes I am at the point where I feel like Dr. Frankenstein when he looked down as his creation looked him in the face and said "VICTOR". My reaction is alongl the lines of what have I gotten myself into.

Hi Russ,
Been reading your comments when I stop by. Your numbers for returning Ore starters are off a bit. Where did you come by them?

Does a player who started at least 2 games count as a returning starter? Or a player that didn't start the season beat out a starter but then was injured count? Does a backup who split plays evenly with the starter count? I think you can make a case for counting these. I do look at these sorts of things over the summer for the P10 and would be happy to share.

 

[russ1945]

Hi Russ,
Been reading your comments when I stop by. Your numbers for returning Ore starters are off a bit. Where did you come by them?

Does a player who started at least 2 games count as a returning starter? Or a player that didn't start the season beat out a starter but then was injured count? Does a backup who split plays evenly with the starter count? I think you can make a case for counting these. I do look at these sorts of things over the summer for the P10 and would be happy to share.

I have been relying on Rivals.com which offers you each teams official site. If you go to Rivals.com go to Football then go to Teams which are listed by conference. Go to Oregon and one of the choices on there is headlined "Depth Chart". I have been relying on that. Some teams show three deep some do not. If you have another source that I can access let me know. If you would like I will put down my breakdown on Oregon on here for you and you can grade my paper. Always open to help and better info. Love to share info with you.

 

[Flsunman]

I am probably stressing the Harvin thing a little but I do see it as something that a band aid will not cover. I am from Oklahoma and like another Oklahoman, Will Rogers, all I know about Florida is what I read in the papers (or garner from sources like ESPN and Rivals). I am a numbers guy through and through. So far I have researched 17 teams and the numbers loss for Harvin and Murphy (in terms of lost TD's) stand out. It is not an anti Florida thing, or a bitter thing, it is a numbers thing. I am going to pull for Florida all season long and probably lay green on them too. At the same time I am going to do the same thing with OU in hopes they get a rematch. I am not sour grapes (which go great with outmeal). I am listening while I continue to argue my point. I have been watching teams try to reload for at least four decades and sometimes you just get a misfire. In this case the numbers have faces (Harvin and Murphy), in your scenario you have faces and no numbers. That is where I am coming from.

I hear ya. We shall see... if history tells anything though, Florida has never had a problem reloading skill players. Only time will tell, but I can assure you UF is loaded on offense and will score plenty of points. The defense on the other hand returns 22 players from the 2-deep, the defense will be MUCH better than last year which says a lot. That to me is scariest of all to any UF opponent.

 

[UoweDucks]

I have been relying on Rivals.com which offers you each teams official site. If you go to Rivals.com go to Football then go to Teams which are listed by conference. Go to Oregon and one of the choices on there is headlined "Depth Chart". I have been relying on that. Some teams show three deep some do not. If you have another source that I can access let me know. If you would like I will put down my breakdown on Oregon on here for you and you can grade my paper. Always open to help and better info. Love to share info with you.

I count 11 returning starters (6 on O and 5 on D) and 4 more positions which bring back players with a significant number of starts.

You can use this site for Oregon, it has not been updated for next season yet.


http://crl.nmsu.edu/~ogden/oregon/depth2008.htm

 

[russ1945]

I count 11 returning starters (6 on O and 5 on D) and 4 more positions which bring back players with a significant number of starts.

You can use this site for Oregon, it has not been updated for next season yet.


http://crl.nmsu.edu/~ogden/oregon/depth2008.htm

I used Rivals.com and routed from their site to Duck Sports Authority. I also show 5 starters returning of Defense. On offense I show the following to be starters and to be seniors: TB- Jeremiah Johnson, WR- Jaison Williams and Terence Scott, OT- Fenuki Tupou and Jacob Hucke, OG- Jeff Kendell and Mark Lewis, C-Max Unger. Since they are listed as seniors I assume they are not returning. For some reason I can't access your site from my home computer. Who do I have wrong?

 

[Conan]

Try this link.

 

[russ1945]

Try this link.

Thanks Conan. I found two differences between these two sources. There are definitely six senior starters not returning. There are two differences, RT is flip flopped, Jeff Kedall is listed as 2nd Center on one and starting OG on another. So far I have relied on Rivals to guide me to an official school site, in this case Duck Sports Authority. I will probably have to stick with that as my source since I have already done breakdowns using that as a common source of reference. I am sure there will be a discrepency here or there but in the long run I am better off keeping that reference as a constant. If you find a discrepency then you can add one point for each starter to my rating which will be on down the road. I keep a folder on each team and I have added this link and this depth chart to the Oregon file. But for my purposes I will have to stick with 8 sr starters not returning for the time being. I am along ways off still and I am doing the best I can. Hope it will prove useful to all.

 

[Conan]

Thanks Conan. I found two differences between these two sources. There are definitely six senior starters not returning. There are two differences, RT is flip flopped, Jeff Kedall is listed as 2nd Center on one and starting OG on another. So far I have relied on Rivals to guide me to an official school site, in this case Duck Sports Authority. I will probably have to stick with that as my source since I have already done breakdowns using that as a common source of reference. I am sure there will be a discrepency here or there but in the long run I am better off keeping that reference as a constant. If you find a discrepency then you can add one point for each starter to my rating which will be on down the road. I keep a folder on each team and I have added this link and this depth chart to the Oregon file. But for my purposes I will have to stick with 8 sr starters not returning for the time being. I am along ways off still and I am doing the best I can. Hope it will prove useful to all.

Well I flip around back and forth between rivals.com and scout.com for roster info and for recruiting info too. Both have their strengths and weaknesses in different areas and often both together aren't enough.

Later on after the season begins and you need to look at stats and rankings about various things, there are a few good sources for that data too. The NCAA (org) site will have all kinds of statistics and national rankings at just about every position and in just about every category.

I also find that the conference websites keep close track of the players ranking and team rankings within the conference in all kinds of ways too. Every year my sources get dialed in a little better than the year before.

One thing you can do to get right into each team's present scenario is to go to their official blog site. I have all the Pac-10 sites for that and most of the WAC too, some MWC. I've organized them in my bookmarks and made some folders to sort them out by team name. Dozens of sources for each of them and a bunch more general sources and conference sources too... and just a click away.

Schedules are posted on the team websites first then the conference websites get them up. The WAC is notorious for being the last conference to post their team schedules. I think last season they didn't have their schedules up until about 2 weeks before fall camp. I don't know how they get away with it but people were complaining on this site about it. That's the exception though. Soon you will see all kinds of data on team sites and on conference sites about '09.

NOW, the next thing you will start to see is the spring camp and spring game schedule and dates for the individual teams but they are usually released by the conference not the school. Go figure.

I just saw the Pac-10 spring schedules today. Take special note about these spring schedules because that's where questions begin to get answered and other questions get asked.