I think the biggest test for the Trojans and for Carroll will be to see how smooth a transition happens with all his AC's leaving town. You know Sark took Carroll's DC Nick Holt, the guy who masterminded USC's defense last year with him to the Huskies. He promoted the DC position from within and he replaces OC Sarkisian the same way. He did hire an AC from the AFC, Jeremy Bates to coach the QB's who used to run the Bronco's offense in Denver. Highly imaginitive and innovative are 2 adjectives I've heard to describe his work when he was at Denver. Carroll's confidence in him shows in a big way as Bates will be calling the plays from the sidelines during games. OK fine. PC seems to have the goods again but how much will this change USC's offensive system and will they be able to morph quickly enough into whatever they will be to beat Ohio St., Notre Dame, Oregon and Cal on the road. That's going to be quite a reloading project to pull off. If they get by all that, they deserve a shot at the big one.
I think the biggest test for the Trojans and for Carroll will be to see how smooth a transition happens with all his AC's leaving town. You know Sark took Carroll's DC Nick Holt, the guy who masterminded USC's defense last year with him to the Huskies. He promoted the DC position from within and he replaces OC Sarkisian the same way. He did hire an AC from the AFC, Jeremy Bates to coach the QB's who used to run the Bronco's offense in Denver. Highly imaginitive and innovative are 2 adjectives I've heard to describe his work when he was at Denver. Carroll's confidence in him shows in a big way as Bates will be calling the plays from the sidelines during games. OK fine. PC seems to have the goods again but how much will this change USC's offensive system and will they be able to morph quickly enough into whatever they will be to beat Ohio St., Notre Dame, Oregon and Cal on the road. That's going to be quite a reloading project to pull off. If they get by all that, they deserve a shot at the big one.
From what I hear Holt was nothing more than a babysitter at DC. It was and always will be Carrol who is the def. mastermind. Holt didn't even call the plays.
But you are right that is quite a bit of turmoil. That they will secure another great recruiting class is testament to Peteys power. Wish he would go pro...
There is another way to look at the Harvin situation. If Harvin was hurt to the point where he missed playing time and was only at 80% in the others it occurs to me that he still wound up the second leading rusher (by 14 yds to Tebow although he he avgd 9.4 ypc to Tebows 3.8 ypc), second leading receiver in ypr (by 10 yards to Murphy) although he led them in receptions (by 2), and he led them in TD's with 17 (Tebow was second with 12). Now he was hurt, missed games, and still lead them in almost everything. The antithesis of what you and others are saying is that Tebow led the team and Harvin can be easily replaced. I saw it is just the opposite. What would Tebows numbers been if he had been hurt like Harvin? The number of yards per touch for Harvin are absolutely mind blowing and they are going to just reload and replace him? If Tebow was going to the draft they would not be saying that about him. That is my point. Tebow got more credit than Harvin. If Urban can replace Harvin it will be with more than one person and they will all have to perform at better than 120% to match what Harvin brought to the table. I know the foridians don't want to hear it but in terms of yardage and points Harvin was the man. Think what Harvin would have accomplished if he had not been injured.
You are probably right. In fact I know you are right about Holt being a face and PC pushing the buttons on defense. What I see in Holt is a really mean dude that motivates his players to hit someone harder than they expect. I think Sarkisian chose Holt because he needs to change the culture at UW and he will probably succeed with that. I do know this... Udubs recruiting class with TW leaving the school is going to be dead last in the conference. I think this means that their coaching staff will have their hands tied as far as how well they can get their players to execute and perform and that won't change anytime soon. They may improve over last year (duh, how can they be any worse) but they will still be at the bottom of the conference. I hear that Wulff has been recruiting pretty well within the state at Wazzou.
Harvin also missed most of the FSU game. We still won 45-14. We don't win that game without Tebow.
Waiting to replace Harvin, 5 star WR Deonte Thompson, 4 star Frankie Hammonds, and incoming 5 star Andre Debose.
Also, Riley Cooper and David Nelson will step up this year to replace Murphy on the outside.
Chrisinparadise, be real. No way we lose 3 games unless we get murdered by injuries. The only game that we won't be favored in is LSU, which we still might be favored to win.
We return our entire 2 deep on defense plus add more bulk to the interior of the DL with 5 star Omar Hunter returning from injury and 5/4 star Gary Brown coming in. That is the entire 2 deep that held Oklahoma to 14 points without a senior on the field.
Waiting to replace Harvin, 5 star WR Deonte Thompson, 4 star Frankie Hammonds, and incoming 5 star Andre Debose.
Also, Riley Cooper and David Nelson will step up this year to replace Murphy on the outside.
Chrisinparadise, be real. No way we lose 3 games unless we get murdered by injuries. The only game that we won't be favored in is LSU, which we still might be favored to win.
We return our entire 2 deep on defense plus add more bulk to the interior of the DL with 5 star Omar Hunter returning from injury and 5/4 star Gary Brown coming in. That is the entire 2 deep that held Oklahoma to 14 points without a senior on the field.
ope:Ok. I have done quite a bit of time finding data and statistics, finding new sources, and I am now evaluating both the offenses and the defenses. I found some variations and some mistakes in some of my earlier evaluations and if you do something like this you kind of feel yourself around until you find a method to your madness. I have accumulated evaluations of some teams but I want to do more, compare evaluations, and look for validation or reasons to make more adjustments. It will take some time.
I am now evaluating the following:
1. returning players (with emphasis on key positions)
2. loss of key players (offense and defense)
3 Returning TD's from last years scoring totals with allowance for players not returning)
4. Points allowed (avg per game) with an allowance for players not returning)
5. Alowance for special teams (+ or - with one point each for returning PK, KR, P, and PR)
I did not put too much emphasis on players not rreturning or for players who received honors last year, returning or not.
6. No allowance is given for strength or weakness of schedule.
At the present time the overall ratings are based on the following formula:
(offensive points for returning starters-defensive points allowed LY+returning SPT players+returning off starters+returning def starters)
Example: to date Florida rates (31.5)=(23.5-13+3+7+11)
O.U rates (30), USC rates(33) with no allowance for losing Sanchez, Texas rates (22.5), Ohio St rates (9.2), N Dame rates (16.1), Penn St rates (14.6)
I still have a lot of tweaking to do and six months to do it as there are many factors that may or may not be added. I am not trying to bias the numbers because I respect numbers and I am trying to gain an edge against the line next year, especially early in the season.
I am open to input and I will share my data in 30 to 45 days in plenty of time for input and suggestions on how to hone it.
I am going to try at all costs not to have a rush to judgement.
I am now evaluating the following:
1. returning players (with emphasis on key positions)
2. loss of key players (offense and defense)
3 Returning TD's from last years scoring totals with allowance for players not returning)
4. Points allowed (avg per game) with an allowance for players not returning)
5. Alowance for special teams (+ or - with one point each for returning PK, KR, P, and PR)
I did not put too much emphasis on players not rreturning or for players who received honors last year, returning or not.
6. No allowance is given for strength or weakness of schedule.
At the present time the overall ratings are based on the following formula:
(offensive points for returning starters-defensive points allowed LY+returning SPT players+returning off starters+returning def starters)
Example: to date Florida rates (31.5)=(23.5-13+3+7+11)
O.U rates (30), USC rates(33) with no allowance for losing Sanchez, Texas rates (22.5), Ohio St rates (9.2), N Dame rates (16.1), Penn St rates (14.6)
I still have a lot of tweaking to do and six months to do it as there are many factors that may or may not be added. I am not trying to bias the numbers because I respect numbers and I am trying to gain an edge against the line next year, especially early in the season.
I am open to input and I will share my data in 30 to 45 days in plenty of time for input and suggestions on how to hone it.
I am going to try at all costs not to have a rush to judgement.
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Checking off losses is important but IMHO it's very important to take note of a teams weak points overall. (There's usually a clue if you look at how they recruited by position.) Next would be to keep in mind those same weak points and see how they play out in spring and fall practice. Very important to follow that as you will not be ambushed by public expectations and early lines.
Of course keeping tabs on their returning players and seeing how well those aspects are coming along is pretty important as well but how well they've improved (or not) in their weak areas is probably the most important thing to know. Their losses may not be a major factor if they were deep at those positions the previous year. By the time the season starts, it's good to know exactly where their strengths and weaknesses really are. By the 2nd week or 3rd at the latest, you can rate them in many categories pretty accurately if you've followed all of the above as closely as possible.
It's worked for me. That's exactly the method I used last season and it got me a strong start right out of the starting gate and fortunately it carried through the rest of the year.
Conan: That's why I say it will be several months before I can determine the relativity of the ratings precisely and there are some basic adjustments that I need to factor in and the most important thing is not to influence the outcomes. For instance, right now I am noting key loses but I am not compensating or penalizing a team..........yet. I will have to finish my basic ratings for at least 25 teams before I have enough ratings to begin to see what they tell me. Right now USC rates highest, higher than Florida, OU, or Texas. I have not made any adjustments for the loss of Sanchez as to what his loss means as a quantitive effect to overall performance. For now I am handling his loss like any other loss other than deducting his rushing TD's and giving credit for Receiving TD's caught only by returning players. Obviously, when you lose your OC and DC that is going to have a effect especially early in the season. It is especially difficult to rate a team that lost it's QB (can just any QB throw x amount of TD's to returning receivers) and visa versa when the QB returns and he loses key receivers. However, all loses of personnel are reflected in the numbers because they reflect TD's scored only by returning players. I emphasize TD's because TD's are what separate better teams from lesser teams. Just about any team can kick a field goal now days. I already add a point for a returning PK, later I will add or subtract to account for the quality of the PK. You might ask if I will give an extra point for players like Tebow, McCoy, or Bradford. Not at this time. They have performance records and they are already factored in. I am interested in rating teams not individual players. As the season progresses individuals will fail or exceed and their individual performances will be reflected in the team statistics. The main thing is that I am a football fan doing the math and not visa versa. There may be adjustments for home field advantage, extremely long visiting trips, weather conditions, and adjustments for teams with new head and key asst coaches. All of these things can and do have an effect on performance and final results. I have not even thought ahead to how this might work on overs and unders yet but the numbers are there it is a matter of interpretation. When I list my basic ratings I will have them on a graph (excel spreadsheet) and they will be side by side (one column per team) for easy and quick reference. I hope it is worth the effort. If nothing else, when all is said and done I will know more about the teams, the players, and the coaches than I have ever known going into a season. It is a win-win situation for me. Of course, adjustments will need to be made week to week as some teams improve and others do not.
Russ, another small point but I think it's worth bringing up...
When teams lose a lot of players on one side or the other, a lot of people think they are doomed. But one important thing that a lot of folks don't think of is how much playing time did the 2s and 3s get during a typical game. Were they rotated in a lot or just a little? Last season just about everybody kissed off Oregon State's DL because they basically lost all 7 starters. However the subs picked up where last year's starters left off and began carrying the defense within a few weeks after the season began and you know how they ended up the year. I attribute that to their DC Mark Banker and the way he kept his defense fresh with a lot of rotation. That has a lot to do with the expressioin "reload" as opposed to "rebuild."
So who's reloading and who is rebuilding?
Another place to look at the answer to that is how many JC's did they sign for next season and how good are they? Did they take more than usual or less? That could be a pretty good clue right there.
When teams lose a lot of players on one side or the other, a lot of people think they are doomed. But one important thing that a lot of folks don't think of is how much playing time did the 2s and 3s get during a typical game. Were they rotated in a lot or just a little? Last season just about everybody kissed off Oregon State's DL because they basically lost all 7 starters. However the subs picked up where last year's starters left off and began carrying the defense within a few weeks after the season began and you know how they ended up the year. I attribute that to their DC Mark Banker and the way he kept his defense fresh with a lot of rotation. That has a lot to do with the expressioin "reload" as opposed to "rebuild."
So who's reloading and who is rebuilding?
Another place to look at the answer to that is how many JC's did they sign for next season and how good are they? Did they take more than usual or less? That could be a pretty good clue right there.
Conan: those are some of the variables I have to consider. Right now I am adding or subtracting 1 point for a player regardless of how good he was for the very reasons you mentioned above. If it looks like they leave a void that cannot be matched then I may have to take that in consideration. My breakdown for now considers the team before the individual and team stats over individual stats. Most Jr. College transfers are more mature and easier to plug in to a given system. Some incoming freshman are just very talented and rise to the top (like Adrain Peterson).
I am interested to see who you think will replace Sanchez. Am I right in assuming they are very deep at RB? How will losing the OC and DC effect the team as far as hitting the field and taking off where they left off? Can this years defense match last years? I am shocked I have them rated so high since I really didn't know that much about them when I started. A lot of that has to do with defense.
I am interested to see who you think will replace Sanchez. Am I right in assuming they are very deep at RB? How will losing the OC and DC effect the team as far as hitting the field and taking off where they left off? Can this years defense match last years? I am shocked I have them rated so high since I really didn't know that much about them when I started. A lot of that has to do with defense.
A big sigh of relief for Oregon. This guy will keep their defense in many games with his lock-down CB skills. I have been wondering where they will find enough players to reload their defense which could easily be the deciding factor in their quest to unseat USC either this year or next. (They've got a better shot at it in '09 than in '10 but I think Cal also looms large. I'd give them a much better chance to unseat USC than Oregon were it not for their ongoing problems at QB year after year -- lately. I give a definite edge to the Ducks at that position but Cal returns a whole bunch and that can't be ignored.)
"Cliff Harris announced Saturday that he is headed to Oregon. Harris, from Fresno, Calif., has been called the best cover corner in the country, and he chose the Ducks over USC. He also is a gifted kick returner, and this should make the early departure of Jairus Byrd to the NFL much easier to take."
"Cliff Harris announced Saturday that he is headed to Oregon. Harris, from Fresno, Calif., has been called the best cover corner in the country, and he chose the Ducks over USC. He also is a gifted kick returner, and this should make the early departure of Jairus Byrd to the NFL much easier to take."
Yes I follow how you are putting it together. Maybe subtract 2 points if there wasn't a decent 2 deep with plenty of playing time under a departing starter, one point if there is. But the weight for a returning 2 deep player should lighten up after about a month when he's grooved into his starting role. (Hopefully)
As far as USC goes, I am about 80% sure that their new starting QB will be Aaron Corp. He was one of those Parade All-Americans, probably #1 at his position too. Nothing much changes at RB with all 3 of their main guys (Johnson, Gable and McKnight) returning. Their only significant loss on offense really (other than Sanchez) was WR Patrick Turner but there's plenty waiting around to fill in his shoes.
Personally I never thought too much of Sarkisian as an OC. I think he had a lot of help from his assistants and spent a lot of his time browning his nose. The big change on the coaching staff is the addition of a new QB coach Jeremy Bates who will also be calling the offense. I think Bates is an upgrade. Defensively it's about the same. As Ducks pointed out, Nick Holt (who left with Sark to coach the defense at Udub) was just a mean face on PC's own defense. I haven't kept close track of all the new coaches and names because the conference is loaded down with so many it's just a big swirl of info to me, but I'll have a handle on it all pretty soon.
Bottom line, not much will be different at USC compared to last season other than a new play caller on the sidelines, a new QB and a bunch of NFL bodies ready to step in on a defense that's in "reloading" mode. I know replacing thier LB's will be seen as a major issue but I think it won't be anything too traumatic. Just scratch one or 2 5-star players from last year and plug in 2 more. Other than LB's, I see the rest of the new players and coaches as a potential upgrade real soon.
Conan: a big reason USC has my highest initial rating so far is that their defense held their opponents to 9 pts a game. I think Sanchez can be replaced and whoever replaces him will have any easier transition as he has a new QB coach to help him make it. It may be an easier system to learn. and there are 8 returning starters on that side of the ball. The defense has only 5 returning starters so that figure will probably go up from last year. I have USC down for returning players who accounted for 27 points a game so anything up from there will probably seal the deal.
I also show Oregon returning only 3 to their offense and only five return on def for a team that gave up 28 points a game last year. I don't see USC having a problem dealing with those numbers.
As far as my research goes I am at the point where I feel like Dr. Frankenstein when he looked down as his creation looked him in the face and said "VICTOR". My reaction is alongl the lines of what have I gotten myself into.
I also show Oregon returning only 3 to their offense and only five return on def for a team that gave up 28 points a game last year. I don't see USC having a problem dealing with those numbers.
As far as my research goes I am at the point where I feel like Dr. Frankenstein when he looked down as his creation looked him in the face and said "VICTOR". My reaction is alongl the lines of what have I gotten myself into.
Yes Russ, you seem to have bitten off a pretty big bite to chew. That's one reason why I like to stick to just 2 or maybe 3 conferences at the most in my region during the year. I'd rather be well informed than just informed and for me, things are a lot easier to keep track of. The downside to it is that the board is much smaller this way but if I limit my picks down to 3-5 per week I can usually pick the right games to play and hit a winning percentage of my bets. I've been doing it that way for a lot of years.
Oregon's returning only 3 on offense could be a little misleading because they bring back a lot of 2's and 3's who have considerable playing time. They have a few key players to replace on their OL, namely Max Unger who is their All-American center but 2 of their key skill players on offense, namely Masoli and Blount can carry that spread-option offense nicely (providing that they get some blocking.) The receivers who are leaving are so-so in my book. Better hands are on the horizon. They may be better off for it. Remember too that Chip Kelly is one hell of a good OC, no doubt one of the best, and whether he gets his promotion to HC or not this year, you can expect to see Oregon's offense develop into another explosive bunch of guys... I really expect more of the same however it may take them a little while to hit their stride again. Masoli is the key to their offense and he's still got years to go there. (He may even be a Heisman darkhorse, depending on how soon things gel in '09.) They also have plenty of highly touted skill position players on offense including a couple of QBs, namely Nate Costa and Darron Thomas who are at least as capable as Masoli. Another potential QB is listed as "ATH" namely Chris Harper who is a little of everything. I think he'll end up playing WR but on Chip Kelly's offense, anything is possible. All those guys get plenty of stars so we'll just have to wait and see how their new offense gels and see what it looks like. The possibilities are a bit mind boggling with all that talent that's been waiting in the wings.
Their defensive losses concern me a little more because they lost some very touted players. FS Patrick Chung, CB Jairus Byrd and DE Nick Reed won't be very easy to replace but I have seen some standout JC's coming on board that should take some of the sting out. But at this point, that story has a long way to go and there's plenty of time to get there... so we wait and see.
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Alabama Quarterback will be Greg Mcelroy or Star Jackson.Its probably Greg Unless Star Jackson clearly outplays him this spring.I think the passing game will be slightly improved.I dont think we even tried to throw the ball much this year.I dont think there was much faith in John Parker Wilson and since we had the lead pretty quick in most games there was no need to throw it.
Glenn Coffee left because there was no way he would have better stats next year.He benefited because the other two running backs (Roy Upchurch and Mark Ingram were a little more banged up) so he actually got more carries than he would 2009.(plus the #1 RB in th country is likely headed to Alabama)Plus he was running behing two NFL lineman so the holes will not be as big next year.Coffees stats were aided by some big runs where he did not get touched because the holes were so big.
I dont think Alabama will be as successful next year running the ball.Its just not going to be as easy unless they can prove they can throw the ball and be more balanced.This year they pretty much "imposed their will".Everybody knew we were going to run the ball but could not stop us.
Good news is that we should be pretty good at passing the ball.Julio Jones is as good as any WR in the country and if another receiver can just step up the passing game should be good.Nobody stepped up last year but on the other hand John Parker Wilson was locked onto Julio Jones every play.
Defense should be every bit as good as last year and even deeper.Javier Arenas is a game changing punt returner.
Make no mistake about it,Alabama benefited in a MONSTER way from the SEC being down last year.I dont ever recall a bigger QB turnover at most every school and there were horrible QB play.LSU for example would have beat us had they a average QB..
Good news is that every tough sec opponent other than OLE miss is at Tuscaloosa.And while I think Ole miss is up and coming,I still dont know that they will sustain it.
We will know about Alabama first weekend at Va Tech.I look for a 10-2 year because of our easier road schedule and Because of Our defense.
