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Steele's Daily Blog - Conference Champs

If you go on philsteele.com todays daily blog has to do with a poll they took on who would win the different conferences. I said I would not post them so I won't but it is interesting. I am interested to hear some other opinions but to me it looks like this poll reflects what is generaly referred to as the "public" point of view. If the public bets along the lines that they picked this poll I think there is money to win going against them.
Nebraska continues to be a mystery team to me but the poll picked them to win the Big 12 North with 51% of the vote with Missouri getting 17.6% and Kansas getting 15.4%. Only Florida (80.1%), Boise St (69.8%), and USC (66%) were bigger favorites among the other conference.
 

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Virginia Tech SPT

In my mind I always think of Virginia Tech as a perenial leader in special teams. I just went over special teams ratings that included all facets of special teams and LY VT rated #79. Now I have looked at a lot of numbers in the past few months but that was surprising to me. You can take it for what it is worth but it is easy to see that if they would improve on SPT that alone would make them a better team. The same goes for other teams like OU #101 LY. That has to be a point of emphasis for both coaches this year and that facet effects field position, etc. that can result in less stress on both the off and def. I must admit I was equally surprised to see Kansas St rated #7 LY.
 

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I have been tied up with a Construction show but have been reading Steele's preview and found a couple of interesting tidbits.

Last year when Boise St upset #17 Oregon at Oregon that marked their first road win over a BCS team. You have got to be kidding.

When C Michigan meets Arizona at Arizona it will be their first ever meeting against a Pac-10 team. In addition, CM is 0-15 losing by an avg of 42-11 when their first road game is vs a BCS opponent.
 

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LSU Freshmen

Phil Steele has all kinds of lists every year and one of them is his top 500 Freshmen list. His 2009 list includes the following No. 1 players at their respective positions:
QB - Russell Shepard
WR - Rueben Randle
DB - Craig Loston

In addition they have:
#11 RB - Michael Ford
#7 OL - Chris Faulk
#11 DL - Chris Davenport
#14 DL - Sam Montgomery
#32 DL - Mike Brockers
#13 LB - Barkevious Mingo

I would say the cupboard is not bare in Baton Rouge.
The have potential triplets in Shepard, Randle and Ford and the DL which Steele has rated at #20 coming into 2009 should be a strong point in the future. LY LSU gave up 24.2 ppg. With a new DC with plenty of SEC experience and players returning on defense who made 74.4% of LY's tackles and offensive players returning who scored 23.3 of the 31ppg they avgd LY, LSU has my full attention this year. LY the least points LSU gave up in an SEC game was 17 to S. Car., then 21 to Aub, and even 24 to Miss St. If they crank it up on defense in 2009 they will be dangerous. LY they were -1 in TO margin so there is much room for improvement in that area also. They have Georgia the week before they get Florida at home. Florida has the week off coming into that game but there are two factors that are worth considering. LSU is 12-1 the week before a bye (which they have the week after Florida) since 2000. Also if they lose to Georgia, Miles is 10-1 coming off of a loss.
 

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Buffalo/UTEP

Mike Price is now in his 6th season at UTEP and his success at Washington State (2 Rose Bowls) make you wonder what the heck he is doing at UTEP, why he is still at UTEP, and when will UTEP begin to make some strides. On Offense they finished 2009 #25 in scoring offense (33ppg) and return players who accounted for 22.2 PPG LY. Defense is another story. LY they switched to the 3-3-5 and during the season the defense lost 11 players to season ending injuries (Ouch!). This season they return 55 lettermen (most in the CUSA) and 15 starters including their QB.
While UTEP was getting the bad breaks (bones), Buff was getting the good breaks (+19 TO margin) and had their best season in over a decade.
LY many of their games could have gone either way and they were actually outgained in conf play. It will be very difficult to match LY's success.
The following week UTEP hosts Kansas and Buffalo hosts Pittsburgh.
I have to think this early in the year, second season in a new defense, healthy players on defense, and a good offense that UTEP has to apprach this game as "must win". They have upcoming OOC games against Kansas and Texas but they have a chance for a bowl. I see this as a kitchen sink type game for UTEP. Buffalo returns 53 lettermen and 14 starters but not the QB. Turner Gill is 15-23 in his career and got some limelight LY but I think he gets outcoached and his players get outplayed in a game that is just too important for UTEP. By the way UTEP was +12 in TO's themselves LY. This should be Buffalo's longest away trip and I am sure it will be nice and warm in El Paso.
 

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Tidbit - Pac 10

In the wtf category I guess. I was looking over USC's schedule LY while I was doing some research and this popped out at me. Of course USC was favored in every conference game but it surprised me to see which team got the fewest points and it was Arizona (+15) and that game was at Arizona. Oregon was getting (+16) but that was a home game for USC.
Arizona pulled losing 10-17 and Oregon did not pull losing 44-10 and they were rated #23 at the time.
So I went back 5 years and in all that time they have only not been favored once during the regular season. In 2007 they were (+2) at Oregon (who was #5 at the time) and lost to Oregon 17-24.
I am sure they will be favored in every game this year if everything goes right for them but if it turns out they are ever not favored and it is an away game it might be worthy of notice.
 

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Good work on that USC research, Russ. Interesting stuff. Gearing up for this season as I type this. Talk at ya soon.
 

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In the wtf category I guess. I was looking over USC's schedule LY while I was doing some research and this popped out at me. Of course USC was favored in every conference game but it surprised me to see which team got the fewest points and it was Arizona (+15) and that game was at Arizona. Oregon was getting (+16) but that was a home game for USC.
Arizona pulled losing 10-17 and Oregon did not pull losing 44-10 and they were rated #23 at the time.
So I went back 5 years and in all that time they have only not been favored once during the regular season. In 2007 they were (+2) at Oregon (who was #5 at the time) and lost to Oregon 17-24.
I am sure they will be favored in every game this year if everything goes right for them but if it turns out they are ever not favored and it is an away game it might be worthy of notice.

Obviously my statement is subject to change based on how the season plays out.

USC will be a 3 point fav imo at OSU. The only remaining game that they would possibly be a dog is at Eugene, but again that depends on their record at the time.
 

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Obviously my statement is subject to change based on how the season plays out.

USC will be a 3 point fav imo at OSU. The only remaining game that they would possibly be a dog is at Eugene, but again that depends on their record at the time.

I know, that is why I put it in the wtf category because it may not happen this year. It was just something that caught my eye, but if USC goes south just a little bit and a couple of other teams in the Pac 10 (or Ohio St) improve it could apply. Remote at best.
 

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Steele - Close Wins & Losses, YPP Factor

When you pick up your copy of Steele's preview look at page 299 after you have looked at your regular stuff. It is interesting but you have to pay attention. It involves probabilites on whether teams who had x number of wins or losses the previous year get better or weaker the next year, and how yyp (yards per point) avgs from the prior year are possible indicators of whether a team will get better of weaker the next year. It is not for everybody but he throws out some interesting percentages.
For those who won't be buying Steele's preview I will throw out a couple in simplified terms. (all figures are net figures)
Previous year 4+ close losses (85%) chance of being better or same next year: SMU, Arizona
Previous year 3+ close losses (78.65%) chance of being better the next yr: Michigan, Temple, Bowling Green, Iowa State, Baylor, San Diego St,
Troy, Clemson, Nevada, N. Illinois, Washington
Previous year 4 or 5 close wins ((90.3%) chance of being weaker or same
Utah, Cincinnatti, East Carolina, W. Michigan, Maryland
YPP Factor - Wyoming (100%) chance of being same or better next yr
Tulane (82.6%) chance of being same of better next yr

There are more categories but this gives you an idea.
He had teams like Florida, Oklahoma, Utah, Texas, Missouri in the offensive YPP as teams who had high percentages of being the same or weaker.
Duh, what are the chances of Florida, Oklahoma, or Texas of surpassing LY's offensive YPP whereas Utah and Missouri lost a lot of players and will be hard pressed to meet LY's totals.

Basically I think he just runs this because he has all the numbers to do it with. A lot of the teams that should improve this year are teams who had seasons LY that were very uncharacteristic and way down from normal. When teams win 11 or 12 teams the year before it is hard to match that again and so a 10 win season could fit one of these categories, so what. A team could go undefeated the prior year and win 3 games the next and make those figures look really good.

Like I said, he mainly throws the stuff on this page out there to help uncover some underrated teams. Many of the teams obviously fit into these categores but some do not.
 

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Obviously my statement is subject to change based on how the season plays out.

USC will be a 3 point fav imo at OSU. The only remaining game that they would possibly be a dog is at Eugene, but again that depends on their record at the time.

In my opinion there are a few teams that are very difficult to put numbers to and Ohio State is one of them. It has to do with points scored by returning players, having a passing team whose QB is not returning, having a passing team whose QB is returning but no experienced WR's, running teams who lose OL and productive RB's and defenses who lose big numbers. Specifically all of these factors when applied to teams who are considered to be teams who can consistently "reload'. Ohio State returns players who only scored 8.6 ppg LY. Yet Steele projects them to have an average winning point differential of 10.6. LY their scoring defense only allowed an avg of 13.9 ppg. That alone tells me that they are going to have to score 24.5 a game if their defense meets LY's totals and their offense lives up to expectations. That is why I will probably put a few teams on my "watch" list before I pull the trigger on them. There are a few other teams that fall into this category and if anyone is interested I will put them on a later post.
 

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Tough Schedules

It seems logical to begin a new season by looking back at last season for some feedback. One area that interests me is how tough was a teams schedule LY compared to this yr. This alone may mean a team will have more success or at least be more competitive (may be better ATS). Again, I had already done some research but I will use Steele's numbers because you can look them up in his Preview (page 317). I strongly recommend checking them out.

Washington - LY had the #1 toughest schedule, this year #51
so it easy to say they should do better, you have to pick your spot.

However, there are some teams that need more factors involved:

I hear Wyoming mentioned a lot as a team that should at least get more competitive and that may be but: They have a new coach and LY they had the #60 toughest schedule, this year #8. Maybe a lot to ask them to improve in 2009, maybe later.
LY Syracuse had the #18 toughest schedule, this yr #3 so it may be more of the same for them.
Maryland LY had #46 toughest schedule, this yr #13. They have 9 returning starters, were #63 in total def LY with 50.6% of their tackles returning.
LY Texas had the #12 toughest schedule, this yr #57 due to a weak OOC
schedule.
The one that really caught my attention though is UCLA who last yr had #13 toughest schedule, this yr #98. You can clearly see that things look up from that perspective alone but there are many other factors that point to them being in the Top 25 at the end of the 2009 season. I am not saying I agree they will be there but I do see the possibities.

Check them out yourselves and see what you come up with.
 

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Tidbits - Week One

Virginia Tech, last 13 openers, 11-2, both losses at neutral sites - they play Alabama in Atlanta
Auburn has won 3 openers in a row, they are 10-0-1 all time vs. LT who they face on week one
Kentucky has won 14 straight non-conference games by an average of 20 points, they open against Mia-O
LY Rutgers went to Cinn LY (who was avging 32ppg coming in) held them to 13 and lost 10-13, Rutgers did not allow Cinn any third down conversions in that game.
LY Tulsa beat Tulane at Tulsa 58-0 and rushed for 489 yds. That may make it easier for Tulsa to break in a new QB in that opener.

They are just tidbits but sometimes a little bit goes a long ways.
 

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Virginia Tech, last 13 openers, 11-2, both losses at neutral sites - they play Alabama in Atlanta
Auburn has won 3 openers in a row, they are 10-0-1 all time vs. LT who they face on week one
Kentucky has won 14 straight non-conference games by an average of 20 points, they open against Mia-O
LY Rutgers went to Cinn LY (who was avging 32ppg coming in) held them to 13 and lost 10-13, Rutgers did not allow Cinn any third down conversions in that game.
LY Tulsa beat Tulane at Tulsa 58-0 and rushed for 489 yds. That may make it easier for Tulsa to break in a new QB in that opener.

They are just tidbits but sometimes a little bit goes a long ways.

VT/Alabama - should mention that Ala is 18-2 in last 20 season openers and Ala is 10-1 lifetime against VT but lost last time they played in 1998. Ala is on a 16-1 run against non-conference opponents at home but this game is in Altanta, close enough?
 

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On don the road

On down the road you might keep these tidbits in mind

Eastern Michigan - EM is 0-39 vs. BCS teams and lost the last 6 by an avg
of 22ppg, this year they play at Michigan and at Arkansas
Boise St has won 17 straight non-conference games at home (they play
Oregon on week one)
Missouri is 19-36 in Big 12 away games
Texas - including bowls in the lasst 5yrs they are 15-4 against ranked
opponents
Lsu has won 21 of its last 22 night games.
Vanderbilt has lost it's last 6 Homecoming games
Houston is 10-1 in games games televised on CSTV & CBS
 

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Guys if you read the other threads I guess you read all the stuff Conan puts out there about me. I guess if you disagree with him beware because this forum is his sacred ground. I am through listening to him much less getting in any more pissing contests with him. I will continue to post on this thread and just do my own thing. I guess since someone else called me a pompous ass he thought he would jump on it. So be it. I have said it before I am a serious better who does a lot of homework. I try to share it on here. He has even knocked my spreadsheet which I have put on here a couple of times but has since been expanded to include 18 points of reference/comparison. It now prints up @70% on landscape and I can't get it on here in its final form. I think I am opened up for private messages so if you would like one drop me a private message and I can e-mail one to you.
In all honesty I began my research in mid January and after 4 months I have virtually completed it. I am starting to work on week 2 of the regular season. When Conan tried to run me down for not having an established W/L ATS I countered by posting five picks for week one. I stand by that. Those are my picks for this forum for week one and I will take them at whatever opening line is acceptable. I guess if you are an asshole you might as well be seen as a pompous one. I accept the fact that there is an establishment on this forum. I am an independent thinker and I do my homework, among other things I do not kiss other peoples asses and what is more I do not expect anyone to do the same to me.
 

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Just for the record

Just for the record and since I referred to them in the prior post these were my five picks for week one:

California
U.T.E.P.
Baylor
Illinois
N. C. State

The reason I posted them the first time was because I have done my homework and don't depend on outside sources or touts. Conan kept throwing out stuff about credibility because I have never posted on a forum before. Those are the only bets I will post on this forum for week one.
 

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Pretty interesting stuff from rivals.com

June 1, 2009

<SCRIPT language=Javascript src="http://vmedia.rivals.com/js/swf.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=VBScript> on error resume next For vCount = 2 to 6 If Not(IsObject(CreateObject("ShockwaveFlash.ShockwaveFlash." & vCount))) Then Else bFlash = true flashVersion = vCount End IfNext </SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=Javascript><!--bMacComputer = (navigator.appVersion.indexOf("Mac") != -1);if (bMacComputer == true) { document.write("Monday with Mike: Secret ballot no way to go
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<EMBED SRC=http://vmedia.rivals.com/flash/contentheadlines.swf?h1=Monday+with+Mike%3A+Secret+ballot+no+way+to+go+&h2=&lwidth=620&lheight=60&lshadow=1&sFontColor=000000&sLink= WIDTH=620 HEIGHT=60 SALIGN=lt QUALITY=best SCALE=noborder wmode=transparent ID=rvflash NAME=rvflash BGCOLOR=#FFFFFF allowscriptaccess=always TYPE=application/x-shockwave-flash PLUGINSPAGE=http://www.macromedia.com/shockwave/download/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash></EMBED></OBJECT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></P>Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Football Editor
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Last week was a busy one for college football. Let's recap some of the most important topics:
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Starting in 2010, the final regular-season ballots in the coaches' poll won't be made public; the ballots were secret until 2005. It just makes you shake your head. The BCS is under fire, so of course the coaches decide they're going to add more secrecy to the mix.
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</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Houston Nutt may have to sign fewer players next year, but at least his vote in the coaches' poll will be secret.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Image-->Yeah, that's real smart – unless the American Football Coaches Association secretly wants this to remain a hot topic and add more fuel to the "We need a playoff now!" fire. And maybe coaches are thinking, "I can be really biased for my league now and there will be no blowback." Of course, I admit that's the cynical view.
The AFCA hired the Gallup Organization – you know, the Gallup Poll people – to look into their poll. "Gallup said, 'Look, why do you think they have curtains and booths for voting?' They said it's because you get the truest vote from an anonymous vote," AFCA executive director Grant Teaff said in announcing the switch. But here's the cynic in me again: There's no question that's true – when you're talking about elected officials. This isn't that; this, instead, is a discussion about who will potentially play in the national title game, and given the angst surrounding those discussions now, you'd think the coaches would be savvy enough to realize this is a PR nightmare.
In addition, if a coach doesn't want his ballot made public, don't sign up as a voter. Worth remembering: Last season, the coaches had Utah seventh in the final regular-season poll and fourth in the final poll. Would a "secret ballot" have changed those results?
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It didn't get as much notice as commissioner Mike Slive telling the league's football coaches to cool it on their public comments, but the SEC has capped the number of recruits (at 28) a league school can sign each year. This will have far more impact than Slive's plea.
Ole Miss signed 37 players in February, obviously knowing a lot of them wouldn't qualify. Most SEC schools are going to sign 28, but they now will have to be more choosy in the 28 they sign. The NCAA allows 25 players to enroll in a recruiting class, but more and more schools are oversigning, especially in the Southeast. SEC coaches can send their thank-you notes about the new rule to Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt.
"I was very concerned last year when we had one institution sign a lot of players, and that was the catalyst for these discussions," Slive said at last week's league meetings.
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Do you remember Brian Butler? He was a mentor/advisor to Bryce Brown, the nation's No. 1 recruit, but Butler had sort of faded into the background since Brown signed with Tennessee in March.
Lo and behold, Butler was in the news again last week when he served as an unofficial spokesman for two Kansas natives who are transferring. Chris Harper is leaving Oregon and Brodrick Smith is leaving Minnesota, and the Topeka (Kan.) Capital-Journal quoted Butler as saying, "I've talked to both of them. Basically, they're trying to get closer to home. K-State is an option for both of them, a very serious option."
Welcome back onto the scene, Brian.
Grid bits
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The Pac-10 is one of two "Big Six" conferences – the Big East is the other – to play a round-robin schedule. But league athletic directors will discuss possibly dropping one conference game during their June meetings in San Francisco. A movement appears to be afoot to drop one of the nine conference games and add another non-conference contest. (The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC have eight-game conference schedules.) Raise your hand if you think that extra non-conference game will be used to schedule a marquee non-conference foe. … Come on, there has to be somebody.
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The next time someone mentions the poor officiating in a college football game – and if you're watching a Pac-10 game that surely is going to happen – I want you to laugh, then say, "Well, at least it's not as bad as the officiating in the 2009 NBA playoffs."
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Two of the higher-profile graduate assistants in recent memory will be in the SEC this season. Mitch Browning, who has been an offensive coordinator at Minnesota and Syracuse, will be a GA at Tennessee. Mike Groh, a former offensive coordinator for his dad, Al, at Virginia, will be a GA at Alabama.
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Former Arizona State defensive lineman Jeremy Staat recently received his ASU diploma after returning from a tour of duty as a Marine in Iraq. Staat, who also played some in the NFL and in the Arena League, joined the Marines after former college teammate Pat Tillman was killed in action in Afghanistan.
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Marshall coach Mark Snyder hasn't had a winning record in any of his four seasons with the Herd and he's squarely on the hot seat entering the season. But it hasn't been the best of offseasons for Marshall. Two of the Herd's best players – tailback Darius Marshall and cornerback DeQuan Bembry – recently were placed on probation for misdemeanor drug charges; it was Bembry's second arrest since the end of last season. In addition, wide receiver Courtney Edmonson – a potential starter – was cited for underage drinking and backup linebacker Corey Hart was arrested after an on-campus incident during the spring. Then, last week, one of the Herd's prized recruits was arrested, and Snyder quickly rescinded the school's scholarship offer. The recruit was Tallahassee (Fla.) Godby quarterback A.J. Graham, who was Florida's "Mr. Football" for 2008. Graham was arrested on charges of robbery with a firearm.
Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be heard on Rivals Radio every Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET and can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com.
 

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