Looking ahead to next season

[russ1945]

Conan

How clear can I be. I did not keep track of my W/L ATS because I had no reason to. For me it was all about going to the bank, period. I thought if I told you how many times I rolled my bankroll you could figure out that I was very successful. Do you want me to make up a figure just to please you? How do I substantiate my W/L ATS? Besides I increment my betting and bet parlays. I hit a five team parlay for 50 and collect 1000 is that one win or one bet or five bets or five wins or wtf do you want here. Again just for clarity I did not keep track and I did not give a damn as long as I was winning. Honestly man, where are you going with this and why?
When Randizzle was winning were you drilling him for the what, why, where, whens and how he picked them or just going to the bank. You say you asked a simple question but I don't know and I don't have an honest documented answer other than to say I won a shit load. So you are going to harp on this now. I have told you I don't need anybody else's picks so post them where ever you want. I bet real money, on real games, and I am not on here for any reason other than to share information. I have never kept records or a W/L percentage, I just move on to the next week. You say I am beating around the bush and I say I can't give you and honest accurate answer. That is the straightest answer I can give you.

 

[GoSooners]

I actually never doubted the fact that he did go 13-3, it is putting your money where your mouth is part that left doubts. You can post something, not actually bet them (or at least all of them), and still take credit if they hit and not pay a price if they don't. So posting picks is better than not posting them and then coming back with claims that at least cannot be substantiated. Still a fine line for me. I too started well in Sept LY but I did not document it because it really did not serve a purpose. But that was then this is now, and that is what gambling is all about. I prefer college football to other sports including horse racing because there are more variables, more things can go wrong or at least not the way you envisioned it and you can still win a bet. I have found a little more of an edge betting it than anything I have tried.
One clarification, the 28 year old, we do not live together and she has two kids who demand a lot of attention. We both like our space and I am definitely getting the better end of that deal.

Russ...if a handicapper is giving out 65 to 70% winners every week and explaining to us why or how he likes a team, I don't care if he's betting 5 cents or $500 a game. he's still getting the same results. And I'm still paying attention. It's the posters with no history that come in here with a thread titled "Lock Of The Year"! And claiming to put $2000 on a game but giving no good explantation why he's playing that team, those are the threads that i don't even bother to open. You're going to find out that if you stick through football season that cappers like SoonerBS, Boxslayer, Prodigy, Trentmoney, Conan, Ducks, Pezgordo and Voice Of Reason are all damn good cappers that don't fart around with pretense. I would advise that you write those names down and remember them. They've all been around a long time. And are all proven cappers here. And they're the best in the best college football forum on the net. This place is getting so crowded when football season starts that i really only bother to open a couple other posters threads that I've known since day one. I don't even bother with those "Lock" threads. You'll see what I mean when the shit starts hitting the fan in the first week in September. It will be completely different then than it is now.

 

[russ1945]

Gs

When I see how many hits Randizzle alone had last season that alone gets my attention. I really did come on here to share info, do some research, and see what goes on in a forum in general. I am not sure if I can be a part of the frenzy or not. If people the caliber that you just spoke of post on here I would give them a look and if someone got hot I know how to do that too. But that would be a bonus. In all honesty probably all of them like to share just like me. Up to now I have shared all of my findings even a spreadsheet to work from. I will share my picks but not to prove myself to Conan or whoever, just in the hope that I can help somebody beat the man. I really like the way Randizzle handled himself during and after the frenzy ended. Truly a class act and admittedly not a heavy hitter. I read both of his threads and the post he made on mine tells me this guy has his feet firmly planted on the ground and he does his homework. There are a lot of parasites that come out of the wood work when the season starts I would imagine, non-contributors, etc. I may have been in a few frays in here but at least I am a contributor.

 

[SoonerBS]

This is week #1 of 2008 season. My UNIT = $100. I'll post the bank receipts whenever you post proof of having a 28 year old girlfriend. By the way, where I come from, a 64 year old man who fiddles with a 28 year old girl is called a PERVERT!

Vanderbilt ML +150 for 2 UNITS WINNER! -- Guys, I think this game fits the category of "Don't Fucking Think About It Too Much." Have we forgotten how bad the MAC was last season? To help you remember here is some statistics on the whole MAC vs. Non-Conference opponents: 23-28-1 ATS and 17-46 SU in non-conference games for 2007. Miami (OH) was a dismal 1-4 in their non-conference schedule and their only win came against a horrible Minnesota team. Vanderbilt lost several players off their offense from last year, but they retain most of their skill players including their QB. Defensively they have been touted as having the best secondary in the SEC this season. Their defense should be fairly solid. The only question I have about this team is the offensive line. But, here is a recent quote from Coach Johnson, "We're just trying to get the very best combination. We've worked several in case somebody gets hurt now or during the season. We've got to have guys be able to play multiple positions. Coach (Robbie) Caldwell does a great job of that. Are they going to be dead-letter perfect the first day? No, but I think they've got a great understanding of what we want to do offensively. We've designed some things around them. We're not as big as we were last year, but I think we're more athletic. We'll try to use their speed and quickness to our advantage and not ask them to do some of the things we'd ask a 325-pounder like Chris Williams to do." I don't need for Vandy to win 6 games this season and go to a bowl. I just need for them to win this game. I'm laying money on an SEC team to win SU over a MAC team.

Kansas -35 for 2.5 UNITS LOSER

Nevada -20.5 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I have Nevada as a "play-on" team this season as I think they are coming together to be an impact team in the WAC conference. Offensively they will be explosive. There is no weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball as they bring back 8 starters with depth. Colin Kaepernick has won the starting QB job, but Nick Graziano will play a lot this season as well. Kaepernick is a running style QB and Graziano is the passer. The only thing that needs to get better for this team is the defense, and in a conference where offense wins games, does it really matter? It's not going to matter much in this game against Grambling St, Nevada should run all over them . . . .

Texas -23 for 2.5 UNITS and FAU +24.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- I bought this bet back. Small opportunity to middle here.

South Carolina -12 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- Last season during the Bowl season, I started looking at games in a very simple way -- who is the better team and who is capable of covering the spread? Answering those simple questions turned out giving me one of the most successful Bowl seasons to date. I vowed to use some of that same capping whenever the new season started. This game is one of those games where I am implementing the method of "keeping it simple." Last year, was touted as the year South Carolina would have a "break out" season and compete for the SEC title. After starting 6-1, they lost the rest of their games. They have had to live with that failure for 7 months. Not much has changed since last year personnel wise, but South Carolina will have to find a new QB. They have three good ones to choose from but as yet, Spurrier is not revealing who has chosen. It will not matter. Whoever wins the job they will do well behind an experienced line and with good skill players. To top that, they bring back 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball. NCST is a lower tiered team in a weaker conference. They also received the bad news of losing their bets WR this week. An SC two TD cover is very doable here as we keep it simple and just take the better team from a stronger conference playing on their home turf.

Northwestern -12 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- You can see some great info and thoughts made by TicketMan in his thread on this game, but here are my thoughts originally posted in the "Big Ten 'Play On Games'" thread in the Offseason Forum: In order for lowly Syracuse to win this game, they have to score more points than Northwestern. That's not likely to happen for a Syracuse team that only averaged 16.5 ppg last season but allowed nearly 35 ppg from their opponents. Syracuse, as we all know, is nothing special, but they are even less special away from the dome and on the road. Syracuse is going to a new style of offense this year that emphasizes the run game. It just so happens that Northwestern strongest feature defensively this year will be the defensive line. Last season they defended the run game better than the passing game. So, Syracuse looks to play into the strengths of Northwestern both offensively and defensively.

Colorado -11 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I am still waiting to see if the line will go down on this game before I make the wager, but I WILL be making the wager on Colorado. About the only good thing thing Colorado State had going for them last season (and the two seasons before that) was QB, Caleb Hanie. Hanie threw for 2,455 yards and had a completion percentage of 64.2 percent. Even with that though they finished 3-9 SU and 5-6 ATS. I had them pegged as a "play on" team with all the returning experience they had, including their star RB, Kyle Bell. But, it appears that poor recruiting over the past several years has settled into this team giving pitiful results. It was time for Sonny Lubick to retire, but the inadequacy of his job performance will linger on with this team for 3 or 4 years I am afraid. As it stands, they will be breaking in a new QB with little to no game experience. Thy will try to rely on the run, but Colorado's strength will be against the run as they return several starters and a lot of experience on their defensive line and at the linebacking spots. On the other side of the ball, we know that Hawkins' offenses are usually full of surprises and he likes to pass. It just so happens that CSU will be breaking in a new defensive secondary this year. Can you say, "checkmate?" CSU cannot exploit any of Colorado's weaknesses and Colorado can exploit all of CSU's weaknesses. This game is a no-brainer to me.

Oregon -13.5 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- Oregon lost Dixon at QB and Stewart at RB from last year and I expect a bit of a drop off from those positions early in the season, but they still have some great talent they will be plugging into these positions. Whoever they plug into the skill positions they will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the PAC 10. So, with Washington's inexperienced defensive front and LBs, I expect Oregon to control the line of scrimmage which is a huge factor in my capping. Defensively, Oregon will be solid this year. With a new RB and new receiving corps for Washington, the Huskies are going to have to rely on Locker to to run the ball for them again this season. Locker has been sidelined the last couple of days with a strained hamstring. That's an injury that is hard to heal with the rigors of an intense Fall practice schedule. I expect this injury to linger for several weeks if not get worse. Couple this with the fact that their leading tackler, linebacker EJ Savannah is ineligible for the season, and Washington, a 4-9 team from last year, is starting in a very deep hole to begin the season. I love leaning to the home teams at the beginning of the season for ATS wins and I think Oregon has Washington at a distinct disadvantage in this game.

Tennessee -5.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- This is another one of those "line" situations where Tennessee should control the the line on both sides of the ball. UCLA has to replace their entire offensive line and most of their defensive line and linebackers. Tennessee brings back their entire offensive line and great talent on their defensive line along with their entire defensive backfield. Last season's road opener on the West Coast didn't go well for Tennessee, but California was a much better team than UCLA is expected to be and that experience should help Tennessee this season in this game. Word is Ben Olson, one of the players contending for the starting position at QB, has reinjured his foot again. This is not verified yet, but even if it isn't true, Tennessee is the obvious play in this game.

Oklahoma -48 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- This one is simple, guys. Last year after coming off a bowl loss to Boise, Oklahoma opened up the season with North Texas and hung 79 points on them beating NT by 69 points. This year they start with Chattanooga who is worse than North Texas was last season. Although there are some questions that will have to be answered for the Sooners at linebacker and in the defensive backfield, the defense will not get tested with Chatty's offense. Word is that Chatty lost their QB as well. Oklahoma will cover easily by 50+.

Arizona -27.5 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I was pretty high on Arizona in the preseason last year because I thought with their defense they could have a good year as new offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes looked like the savior to the former stale offense of Arizona. For the first year of a new offensive system, Arizona didn't do too bad. They averaged 28 ppg on the season and Tuitama stayed healthy and looked very good. What I didn't plan on was Arizona's defense not showing up. They were suppose to be one of the top 4 defenses in the conference, but they ended up tying for 6th place defensively in the conference. Several sources in the "know" cited internal problems between players. Whenever the season was all said and done, they went a disappointing 5-7 SU & 6-5 ATS. This year, expectations are very high offensively as 10 starters return in the second year of the offensive system. I think Arizona is really going to put up some points this season. Defensively, the problem elements of last season are gone. While you will not recognize any BIG names on the defensive roster, you will likely see a team playing more unified than they did last year. Plenty of stopping power remains on this side of the ball. Their opener is at home against the weakest team in a weak conference -- Idaho. Idaho allowed 37 ppg last season with an experienced defensive unit. This year, they bring back only 4 starters defensively. Offensively they bring back 10 -- off a unit that only averaged 21 ppg in a weak conference. Stoops' job is in the balance this season and the Wildcats need to get off to a fast start. I don't look for him to call off the hounds in this opener in front of the fans that have some doubt about him and his team.

Troy -6 fro 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- Once again, we have a major mismatch on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Whenever Troy has the ball, they will be defending their backfield with an offensive line that brings back everybody from last year 2 DEEP! They will be breaking in new starters at QB and RB, but both their starters have experience and are expected to be good. On the defensive side of the ball, Troy brings back 3 of their 4 defensive line starters and plug some holes in LB position and DL with JUCO transfers that carry some experience. They will be going against a depleted Middle Tennessee St offensive line that has lost the starters and second string reserves at both center and right tackle. They were already breaking in a new starter at right guard. MTSU brings back an experienced QB and RB, but behind a depleted line like this, they will not be very successful. To make matters worse, they only have one starter coming back at receiver. 3 of the 4 receivers, including the TE, will be new starters. Guys, it's very simple here, Troy will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is an obvious bet on Troy.

Oklahoma State -5.5 (bought hook) for 5 UNITS WINNER! -- I could be getting my ass in a ringer laying these early bets. If something happens to QB, Zac Robinson for O-State or Willie Tuitama in the Arizona bet, I could be shit out of luck (I'd have to buy the bets back and lose what juice I would lose.) BUT, that sometimes is the risks you take betting early games. The thing is, I don't think these lines are going to be getting any better, so I want to play some of these games at the lines I can get now. I've mentioned in another thread that Oklahoma State is probably looking the best they have looked since Les Miles left the program. Gundy has definitely put together a team this season that will compete in the Big 12 South. Not only will they be proficient offensively . . . . again . . . . . but they are also showing good speed and playability on the defensive side of the ball. In order to win on the road, you have to be able to play defense. This has been Oklahoma State's problem in the past. I see them much improved defensively this season and WSU will be taking a step backwards in their program. This is a really good valued line for a game being played on a semi-neutral field.

Rice -3 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I liked this bet whenever the lines first came out because June Jones' system is so complex I knew it would be hard for SMU to start the season with any kind of consistency on the team. Now, as of today (8/19), we get word that the veteran QB and Mustang record holder, Willis, will be dropped to 3rd string in favor of two younger QB prospects. It's now less than 2 weeks from gameday and Jones has still not decided on a starting QB. You can expect mistakes and inconsistency for the play of the traveling QB in this game as well as with his team mates. On the other side of the ball, Rice is in the second year of their new coach's system and they return 16 starters off last year's team. This will be a Friday night game with everyone's eyes focused on Houston to see Jones' debut as the new Mustang's coach. Great spot here for a Rice win and cover.

USC -19.5 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I've been telling you about this bet since early May. There are bits and pieces of reasons why this is a great bet scattered all over this forum and the offseason forum. I'll wait and allow one of our other great posters to give you more info on this play.

TOTAL Plays

Tulsa/UAB UNDER 68 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- I know that people will look at this play and think, "Neither one of these teams play any defense, I'm not playing an UNDER on this game." BUT, both teams have been emphasizing the defensive play in the offseason and BOTH teams will start this game with rookie QBs. Usually, first games between teams with new QBs is a good UNDER play. I'm expecting a game where the offense struggles a bit and the defense will look better than it actually is . . .

Wyoming/Ohio UNDER 54.5 for 2.5 UNITS WINNER! -- Ohio is starting a new QB and RB on the road here in this game, but Solich's teams have always played decent defense. Wyoming is known to be subject to turnovers and I am factoring that in to this UNDER as well. I have Wyoming down as an UNDER type team this season.

California/Michigan State UNDER 59 for 2.5 UNITS LOSER! -- I just think this score is too high for two teams that will likely be better defensively than they will offensively this season, especially at the start of the season.

 

[GoSooners]

Russ...I respect what Randizzle did last season. And I wish nothing but the best for him. But I really don't know him. Last year was the first year that I can recall seeing him on this board. Maybe I'll get to know him better this season if he elects to keep posting here.

 

[SoonerBS]

When I see how many hits Randizzle alone had last season that alone gets my attention. I really did come on here to share info, do some research, and see what goes on in a forum in general. I am not sure if I can be a part of the frenzy or not. If people the caliber that you just spoke of post on here I would give them a look and if someone got hot I know how to do that too. But that would be a bonus. In all honesty probably all of them like to share just like me. Up to now I have shared all of my findings even a spreadsheet to work from. I will share my picks but not to prove myself to Conan or whoever, just in the hope that I can help somebody beat the man. I really like the way Randizzle handled himself during and after the frenzy ended. Truly a class act and admittedly not a heavy hitter. I read both of his threads and the post he made on mine tells me this guy has his feet firmly planted on the ground and he does his homework. There are a lot of parasites that come out of the wood work when the season starts I would imagine, non-contributors, etc. I may have been in a few frays in here but at least I am a contributor.

Be sure to check out MistaFlava's threads this Fall then if you are impressed with viewer counts. He gets lots of viwer counts as well and will post a page long full of shit for every play he makes. He's also full of SHIT and plays with monopoly money.

Russ, you really don't know shit about these forums, do you? It seems all the more reason why you should listen instead of doing this all the time . . . .

 

[russ1945]

Bs

Who in their right mind would save bank receipts for that long of a period?
Let me describe my girlfriend as a f-buddy and and a friend who is a girl.
She keeps her receipts so she can take shit back where she bought it.
As always, I am your Huckleberry.

 

[SoonerBS]

Who in their right mind would save bank receipts for that long of a period?
Let me describe my girlfriend as a f-buddy and and a friend who is a girl.
She keeps her receipts so she can take shit back where she bought it.
As always, I am your Huckleberry.

Again, you make very little sense. I think maybe you spend too much time in sports bars, or maybe you're just a senile old fart. What was your ATS W/L record last season, Russ? Why don't you just answer Conan's questions?

You bring this shit on yourself. Please tell me you were born in another state, so I don't have to be embarrassed that you are from this state.

If you are going to talk shit about me in other threads, then I'll come at you the rest of this Summer with both barrels blazing dipshit. If you want a war, I'll give you a war, because I know the true meaning of this phrase -- IM YOUR HUCKLEBERRY!

 

[SoonerBS]

Oh, and thanks for posting those spreadsheets with all the numbers on them. I was needing something to put me to sleep last night.

 

[russ1945]

Bs

Oh, and thanks for posting those spreadsheets with all the numbers on them. I was needing something to put me to sleep last night.

Well for a guy who said he ignores my postings we sure are a busy little guy. Well if you live in OKC you can come by BWW on the NW highway any old time. I'll even buy you a shirley temple. That's just the kind of guy I am. Ok tell the truth, you taped the spreadsheets on the ceiling over your bed so you can study them until you pass out. That is impressive, I mean the fact that you can read. Is that where you put your pick sheet and throw darts at, on your ceiling? Give me a break man. I saw your picks and I am really im pressed. Excuse I almost fell asleep.

 

[SoonerBS]

Well for a guy who said he ignores my postings we sure are a busy little guy. Well if you live in OKC you can come by BWW on the NW highway any old time. I'll even buy you a shirley temple. That's just the kind of guy I am. Ok tell the truth, you taped the spreadsheets on the ceiling over your bed so you can study them until you pass out. That is impressive, I mean the fact that you can read. Is that where you put your pick sheet and throw darts at, on your ceiling? Give me a break man. I saw your picks and I am really im pressed. Excuse I almost fell asleep.

I can see that happening with you. My plays and comments are to the point, logical and they make good football sense -- all things you are not into. I have a feeling I would not be into the things you are into though. For one, I have a wife that is 3 years older than me and we have been married for 23 years. I am a little worried for my 7 year old daughter being so close to you though. Whenever your 28 year old girlfriend comes to her senses and leaves you, you might try to move in on my daughter.

So, again, what was your ATS W/L record last year, Russ? Why do you keep dodging the question?

 

[russ1945]

Bs

All I can say is she is your daughter, enough said. And you were the one that brought her into the conversation.
And..........Gotta go my girlfriend is here.

 

[SoonerBS]

No, I didn't ask about any of that
.
Some of what I said was said for the purpose of cluing you into how things are done around here, since you are new to the online forum thing.

You appear to have read way more into what I wrote than what was really said. Records are a quantifiable way of determining success which is what you have claimed. All I asked for was your W/L record ATS... just a little accountability for starters.

Forget it, Conan, he doesn't have any. He'd rather spout a bunch of numbers and opinions. What we have here is a guy who bet on some games last season and won a couple. Now, he thinks he is a college football guru so he comes on a forum he knows nothing about and gives his opinions on games based almost solely on some numbers he got off a spreadsheet. This is also a guy who judges posters not by what they know or say, but by how many hits they have on their threads. Like I have posted in another post, he is a moron.

 

[Conan]

How clear can I be. I did not keep track of my W/L ATS because I had no reason to. For me it was all about going to the bank, period. I thought if I told you how many times I rolled my bankroll you could figure out that I was very successful. Do you want me to make up a figure just to please you? How do I substantiate my W/L ATS? Besides I increment my betting and bet parlays. I hit a five team parlay for 50 and collect 1000 is that one win or one bet or five bets or five wins or wtf do you want here. Again just for clarity I did not keep track and I did not give a damn as long as I was winning. Honestly man, where are you going with this and why?
When Randizzle was winning were you drilling him for the what, why, where, whens and how he picked them or just going to the bank. You say you asked a simple question but I don't know and I don't have an honest documented answer other than to say I won a shit load. So you are going to harp on this now. I have told you I don't need anybody else's picks so post them where ever you want. I bet real money, on real games, and I am not on here for any reason other than to share information. I have never kept records or a W/L percentage, I just move on to the next week. You say I am beating around the bush and I say I can't give you and honest accurate answer. That is the straightest answer I can give you.

Russ, whatever you post counts. Whether it be parlays or sides or totals or halfs. I would keep parlays separate but as long as you can account for units, for example if $100 is one unit then a $100 parlay on 3 teams that wins and pays 6-1 means you won 6 units. or +6 counted with each unit bet on sides or totals. In other words, if you went 3-1 on sides and won a single unit parlay on 3 teams you would net 2 units on the side bets and 6 on the parlay... +8 for the week. A very good week. It's common sense.

Here is a typical post for me last year. These plays were made several days before game day. Note the information that was included. I kept a running total each week of my record to date.

Recap through week 3:
11-5 total record (69%) +9 units

This week:
AZ-1/UCLA** (up to -4 as a regular pick)
SJSU+9.5/Stanford* (over a TD)
Boise St.+12/OR* (too risky <10, but I think Oregon will have to earn this win)
UCLA/AZ U54*

I'd also recommend a small shot on the SU win for SJSU if you have it to spare and would like a little extra entertainment. I don't count these plays as regular selections but I've got 1/2 unit on it.

BOL to everyone

PS... good luck on the ASU play UoD... I'd like to play it but I'd feel a little better about if if ASU didn't have a history of blowing it vs marquee opponents. They have yet to post a defining win under Erickson. Maybe this will be the week they do.

Of all the damn weeks to bring up in my search. That was the week that CoachLT mentioned in his recent post about Harbaugh when a gratuitous TD at the end of the game vs SJ St. cost a lot of people a win. Also notice that I had a double unit play on your hallowed Wildcats. I point that out so you will get that freakin idea out of your head that I have any prejudice towards them and I intend to use them in spots again this season.

I will also mention that I ended up the season with a 64% record ATS... a very good year for me but like this year, I am studying heavily. I earned my wins the old fashioned way. I studied a lot.

Now do you see? I am accountable and you are just talking about it. I really don't want or need that distinction or separation from you or anyone. It serves no useful purpose. Accountability does serve a worthwhile purpose.

I am surprised but also I find it discouraging knowing that you keep records on everything but yourself. How can you not keep track of yourself or improve without knowing a statistic like your rate of wins vs the book? How can you have "investors" who don't care about your record? C'mon. What investor wouldn't want to know something as important as a W/L ATS record?

Your W/L ATS record is everything and includes everything but the money management part of how you bet. Your bank balance includes both handicapping and money management which means that it is vague as far as helping to evaluate how your handicapping system is working on its own. For all I know, you lost a lot of money but you got lucky chasing your losses. Horrible record, great bank account. Desperate and lucky. Fortunately.

Now please don't start running your mouth off on how you never chased anything in your life because that has nothing to do with my point. How you got there matters in here. That's the point. It's not just for you but it's for everyone. W/L ATS is the only way to grade your own self at the very least, much less grading others.

Now just go to your offshore account and look up your history and get back to me. I aint' buyin into your "opinion" of trying to convince me or anyone that you are legitimately taking care of things right if you refuse to research even your own record.

You make it so fucking hard. I am only asking you legitimate simple every day question that is a very commonplace question here. In fact, it's so commonplace people post their record so nobody needs to ask. It would be considered a common courtesy if you would please be honest and direct with a relevant answer instead of all these elaborate stories and ruses.

It is you who is backing yourself into a corner yet again with a lot of beating around the bush and refusing to communicate directly or even honoring a simple statement or question.

We speak the same language in here. W/L ATS. That's how we relate. Apples to apples. That's the way things are done here because it's fair. Pay attention because I am telling you the God's honest truth, nothing but.

Please just do me the courtesy of answering my question. That's all I ask. Nothing more. It's not even an unusual or trick question in any way. Go find your W/L ATS record at the offshore book or books that you use, be truthful and get back to me. Even if you can only come up with a few months. Maybe you will learn something about yourself.

ASAP please.

 

[Conan]

You cannot tell me that you are not shocked that Arizona was ranked on any poll ahead of Oregon. I figued that out myself, on my own.

Russ, I have to comment on this and it's experience that compels me to say what I am about to say.

Steele is not a good prognosticator. He has a lot of info but his predictions are often pretty ridiculous, and I say that because of his history of being way off a lot of the time. UCLA #3 in the Pac? Geeezus man. To be perfectly honest, nothing Steele writes anymore shocks me. I just shake my head when I see some of his off the wall crap. On the other hand, Athlon is much more accurate as far as their overall appraisals of team strengths and rankings go. I just posted a Paul Buker piece in the Pac-10 thread that reiterates that very point.

And one more thing of value here I want to say. If I see someone post an ATS record of something like 31-27 ATS, that tells me more about the guy than just what a marginal winning record suggests. It says that he's honest and has the guts to tell it like it is. Knowing that much about someone makes everything they say real and worthwhile. I may not follow his picks but I will follow his words and pay him respect because he's straight with people. A guy like that will eventually get hot and have good weeks. I'd jump on his action for something to do on a Thursday night in a minute if he's hitting. I'd take him in a lick over a guy that boasts as if he is some kind of gift to handicappers around the world, making money hand over fist but without any accountability. Guys like him show up here in droves and they take all forms, even some resembling your style of numbers crunching etc.

Someone that shows up and lays his neck on the line with his own plays and write-ups has my respect. Even moreso when he shows that he can bend in the face of superior reason. An honest thinker... a real human being that is not here to get into pissing matches.

What a pleasure it is to find people like that in these forums. It doesn't make them any less of a handicapper, it makes them more of a real person and that in itself makes them a better handicapper. He's a straight shooter; he is honest. And I wish him luck.

We are not talking about your way or my way or Frank Sinatra's way, we are talking about logical thinking and making choices. If you don't examine the source, that's the stupid way.

 

[russ1945]

Conan

I closed my offshore account after the superbowl. I do not know if I can access it or not. Last year I was with Bet US. This year I am set up somewhere else and do not have to make a deposit. I will work off of a weekly limit. So I cannot access my old account.
I guess what differentiates online guys is this accountability thing. I talked to a couple of friends tonight who bet offshore. One is a medium player and the other is a big player. Neither one of them keep any kind of records much less store them. They did not care about a W/L ATS. They, like me, just want to collect every week. We actually laughed about it because to us there is no accountability just collectability. None of us really see how you could expect someone to keep records like that. I think you guys have been doing this online thing so long that you forget that people make lots of money without using a forum or posting bets online.
You ask why people would invest or back someone who did not have a W/L ATS record. Well it could be that they have won money using my picks and want to win more. They know my long term handicapping plans and know first hand how much time I spend studying and doing research.
Why do people use stockbrokers, same thing. They have the resources but don't have time to do all of the research, etc.
The reality of this whole W/L ATS is not important to anyone but you guys on the forum I guess. The rest of us are just happy to cash the checks. You throw terms around like credibility but you can't relate to the fact that not everyone operates like you guys, and that lots of guys win a lot of money not doing it your way.
I made it clear as a bell when I started posting here that I wanted to up my game. I have also stated that money management takes a back fiddle to good handicapping. If you bet 10 college games for 12 weeks for $100 each and hit 60 percent you would have wagered $12,000 and netted a grand total of $1,920 after the juice. So a 60% W/L ATS would net you a whopping $192.10 a week. Are you shitting me. I wouldn't even bet if that's all I could collect but boy that is a really nice W/L ATS. I am not trying to be disrespectful but not everybody thinks like you guys. Out here in the real world we just do it for the bucks. In all honesty we all discussed this thing tonight and in fact, none of us had ever had anyone ask them for their W/L ATS. Look at poker you might lose ten hands and take everyones money on the 11th hand. His percentage of winning sucked but he walked off with all the money. In the end that is all that matters.

 

[russ1945]

Tcu

Just a little tidbit. TCU does not get big name recruits but they have one of the best S & C programs around. 75% of their roster can bench press 400 lbs or more. Coach has stressed the importance of a good S & C program and I would be interested to know if he or anyone else thinks this is exceptional or not. I even think back to the seventies when Nebraska took their weights with them to a bowl game. A friend of mine helped train at Oklahoma State one year. He said that Thurman Thomas was lazy and not motivated to lift weights. Because of his ability he excelled anyway and look what he did in the pros. At TCU and other places they are taking less talented but highly motivated athletes and competing with the best of them, the reason S & C. Ask OU (and that was at OU). As an athlete (football player) one of the biggest shockers is when you come across an opponent who exceeds your expectations and isn't going to go away. There is more there than you saw on film or read in the scouting report. If a whole team comes at you like that it sometimes becomes a long long day.

 

[russ1945]

Experience Chart - Steele

If you pick up a copy of Steele's Preseason Magazine I would suggest reading his NCAA Experience Chart (new and improved) on page 311, and his Lettermen returning/lost system on page 319 as they are directly related. He at a much higher level, does what I have been trying to do which is to find a continuum to try to quantify how a team might transform from the 2008 version into the 2009 version in any predictable manner. All that means is that every team has X amount of experienced players coming back. By looking at verified statistics like points scored by returning players, tackles made by returning players this gives each team a number that is relative to other teams. He is big on returning seniors and has come up with some percentages that seem to relate to whether or not a team is more likely to improve on its 2008 record or head the other direction. I don't want to reveal everything or do a copy and paste, I would rather have you look at it yourself and draw your own conclusions.
If you are not going to get the magazine post on here at that time and I will try to get you what you are after. I will reveal only that his top 3 teams with an 89% chance of improving their record are Toledo, UAB, and Stanford. The three teams with an 82% chance of having a weaker or same record are Navy, Missouri and S. Carolina.
I have to admit the guy has a ton of charts and reference material. Since I am taking my first shot at the numbers side of handicapping I find it a little encouraging that I had been basically using the same approach. He is more interested in returning seniors and I am more concerned with returning points. I can tell you this. Next year I will do my own research but I will be able to do it much quicker just by learning from experience. But I can tell you that it is tempting to just wait for his magazine to come out next year. I am going to incorporate his experience rating into my matchup format so that the two teams can be compared in that area.
Pretty boring stuff huh. But this is all very relative to week one more than anything else. After that you have to make adjustments until you have any particular team zeroed in on in terms of competitveness and predictable performance. Strength of schedule is also important specifically whether or not a team is playing stronger or weaker schedule in 2009 than in 2008 and how that relates to the team they are matched up against that particular week.
If I change my matchup format I will post it on here.

 

[russ1945]

In my own defense

I guess I have been pounded lately to produce a W/L ATS. Other than the perenial posters on here who do post their picks but may or may not put up the money I am wondering how many of you other guys keep track of your W/L ATS. It boils down to how much you win or lose on a week to week basis and the only things that is important is collectability. I guess this credibility thing is very important to these guys and if it works for them power to them. Like Conan says whether you bet them or not the picks stand on their own merit. I say if you don't put up the money you don't pay the price. Now I do not know if any or all of these guys back each and every pick they post on here with money or not. I will take their word for it. But last night I was talking this W/L ATS thing with some friends of mine who do wager real money and they were like WTF. I have to defend myself constantly on here because I am a new kid on the block. Guys like BS think I am on here just to see how many hits I can get on this thread.
Let me set the record straight. Until this forum I had no idea that their was an established group of regular posters and to their credit they put good stuff on here. I guess at some point I am supposed to do the Oboma thing and bow to them in homage. It has nothing to do with that in my mind. All I want to do is share. How is hits on a thread going to put money in my pocket and that is all I am interested in. This whole situation is compounded by the fact that I am older than them and been betting longer than them (and I damn sure don't have my lifetime W/L ATS), so I have a problem with being looked down at. Actually that is BS's biggest problem is his condescending attitude. He actually put good stuff on here and is good at anyalyzing. So where do I go from here. Well I will keep posting on here but I am through with pissing contests.

Bottom line. How many of you other guys give a damn about W/L ATS.
To me it reeks of petty competitiveness and does not put a dime in your pocket. I would be very interested to hear other opinions as to how a W/L ATS effects your personal week to week decision making or money making. I say you either win or you lose and you move on from there.
Maybe we should give out a T-Shirt for best W/L ATS of the week and then everyone who sees the guy who is wearing it can say the same thing I have been saying, WTF.

 

[Conan]

I made it clear as a bell when I started posting here that I wanted to up my game. I have also stated that money management takes a back fiddle to good handicapping. If you bet 10 college games for 12 weeks for $100 each and hit 60 percent you would have wagered $12,000 and netted a grand total of $1,920 after the juice. So a 60% W/L ATS would net you a whopping $192.10 a week. Are you shitting me. I wouldn't even bet if that's all I could collect but boy that is a really nice W/L ATS. I am not trying to be disrespectful but not everybody thinks like you guys. Out here in the real world we just do it for the bucks. In all honesty we all discussed this thing tonight and in fact, none of us had ever had anyone ask them for their W/L ATS. Look at poker you might lose ten hands and take everyones money on the 11th hand. His percentage of winning sucked but he walked off with all the money. In the end that is all that matters.

Russ, if you think money management isn't a key to winning you are deluded. If you think 60% is a hopeless rate, then you don't know a thing. But you even think you know more than the sharps in Las Vegas that run this "sport." If you knew the history of online and offshore gambling, you would realize that this site is an extension of that organized machine.

Once again your ignorance is dominant and has proved itself to be beyond anyone's reach. You can't even tell us what your "winning" rate is and you harp on numbers that have been time tested and proven numerous times and NUMEROUS places, not just here. Professional gamblers in big contests in Las Vegas brag over such winning rates ATS and you don't even have any knowledge of that!

If you and your buddies are so efficient and successful, then you have just obligated yourself to prove it by stating in advance what you intend to play. We don't like going back in time and rewriting history or the books. Liars do that which is why posting picks ahead of games, not afterwards is how it's done. Geezus, you don't even know about money management and you put it down. I find that hard to fathom coming from an "experienced gambler" like yourself.

You are obligated to back your words and show people how you make all this money. If not, you are a liar and everyone will see that. I personally can't believe a word of it but you can prove me wrong all you wish. There's one way of doing that which is to post your plays ahead of the times they go off. Even 1/2 time bets can be posted in advance. A lot of people do it.

You are expected to back your claims up with action and timely posts. Personally, I think your true record is like the Matt Scott video scenario. Only the highlights, none of the misses. Not really 11 for 11 but 11 for 21. That's the part that was edited out. Just like you.

You have your work cut out for yourself if you expect to be believed and taken seriously and ultimately even viewed.