Looking ahead to next season

GoSooners · May 6, 2009

russ1945 said:
I would be absolutely floored if OU didn't make it to the Texas game unscathed. You may be selling OU short or giving too much credibility to the OL and the WR picture. I can tell you OU can score like they did last year again this year if that is what they want to do. Their defense is going to be much better. Special teams will be a big time focus this year and that facet let down big time LY especially against Texas. The OU team is on a mission and playing BYU, Miami Fl, and Tulsa will better prepare them for the Texas game. I think defense is the key to the OU-Texas game and Texas lost a lot on defense. The OU OL will have some quality games under their belt. How they do against BYU, Miami Fl, Tulsa remains to be seen but I see it unflolding OU's way. I think the Texas DC may level out this year and I think their defense will diminish enough to make a difference in at least 3 games.

OU will be going to Miami with a new OL and WR's having to deal with what will probably be a very rowdy crowd in the Orange Bowl. They'll be facing a Miami defense that may rival Texas on that side of the ball this season. Our defense will be going up against a very dangerous QB Jacory Harris, a mobile QB who can make things happen. They'll be having to deal with a new and innovative OC in Whipple who I guarantee will have some surprises waiting for OU. And then OU will also be dealing with the heat and humidity of Miami, which is terrible that time of year. And where many good teams have wilted in September.. And Shannon and Miami will be looking for revenge from the beating OU gave them in Norman two years ago in Shannon's first year as HC....Besides that it should be a cakewalk for the Sooners.

russ1945 · May 6, 2009

GoSooners said:
OU will be going to Miami with a new OL and WR's having to deal with what will probably be a very rowdy crowd in the Orange Bowl. They'll be facing a Miami defense that may rival Texas on that side of the ball this season. Our defense will be going up against a very dangerous QB Jacory Harris, a mobile QB who can make things happen. They'll be having to deal with a new and innovative OC in Whipple who I guarantee will have some surprises waiting for OU. And then OU will also be dealing with the heat and humidity of Miami, which is terrible that time of year. And where many good teams have wilted in September.. And Shannon and Miami will be looking for revenge from the beating OU gave them in Norman two years ago in Shannon's first year as HC....Besides that it should be a cakewalk for the Sooners.

You began by saying that OU would not be "unscathed" before they get to the Texas game. And then you wind up using the word "cakewalk". Those were your words not mine. I am wondering whether or not you attended the Spring game at OU this year. Not that a spring game tells you much. If you were there and watched the warmups they actually told you more than the scimmage. Demarco Murray looked spectacular catching passes like a wide receiver. The money players took it easy and played limited time or not at all. As for Miami, OU is very deep, much deeper in the defenive line and LB than Miami. That will payoff in the heat and humidity you described. Miami was 75th against the run LY and OU was 20th in rushing offense LY. Would you rather have Jacory Harris or Sam Bradford. Too early to get serious about specific matchups but if you are going on record saying that OU's OL and WR will do them in I think you will be proven wrong. I will save this posting and refer back to it after the BYU game and we can continue our discussion then. For now we can agree to disagree.

russ1945 · May 6, 2009

Interesting Slant

Apparently the U.S.C./Ohio State game at Ohio State will be just the ninth night game in Ohio Stadium history when the two teams meet on Sept. 12th.
Ohio State has lost their last two night games - LY to Penn State and 2005 to Texas.

russ1945 · May 6, 2009

GS on one his threads refers to a listing from Keeper's that evidentally does pretty much what I do with ret starters and returning points except I take into consideration point differential (offensive- defensive margin). If you were to take my top ten rated teams (which at this point is for matchup purposes only) and put it next to the toughest schedule list shown above for my top 10 rated teams it would be like this shown in random order.
Oklahoma State - 2nd toughest schedule in the nation
Miami Fl - 10th toughest schedule
O.U. - 12th toughest schedule
Georgia Tech - 23rd toughest schedule
Kansas - 41st toughest schedule
Florida - 44th toughest schedul
B.Y.U. - 55th toughest schedule
Arizona - 57th toughest schedule
So. Cal - 87th toughest schedule
T.C.U. - 89th toughest schedule

Now this does not necessarily have anything to do with pulling points because all my numbers are meant for comparing Team A to Team B.
However, in terms of winning a national championship it appears that So Cal has the inside track to be one of the teams because they are the highest ranking team with the path of least resistance. I know some people scoff when I show Arizona but all I can say is look at the numbers yourself.
I have probably mentioned this somewhere in another posting but I don't see Ohio State, Utah, Oregon, Nebrasksa, N.C. St, Cinn, Mary, Pitt, Ariz St or Mich St improving and possibly declining from LY's performances.
Don't take my word for it though. Crunch your own numbers and see what you come up with.
Just for the record again, I see the following teams flying under the radar for a while: Arizona, So. Mississippi, Illinois, Minnesota, Wyoming.

russ1945 · May 7, 2009

</TD><TD class=col1>Cory McCartney</TD><TD class=col2>></TD><TD class=col3><SCRIPT>setWritersBranding( "inside.c.football" );</SCRIPT>INSIDE COLLEGE FOOTBALL

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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=col0>The Beaver state, Mizzou's offensive evolution, more mailbag

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Oregon and Oregon State were intriguing but hard-to-read teams this spring

Injuries and vanilla play-calling aside, Missouri's offense has underwhelmed

Ryan Mallet gives Arkansas all it needs, the helmet cam era begins and more

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Darrell Catchings' deep-play ability should open up the field for the Rodgers brothers at Oregon State.
Rob Holt/Icon SMI
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>I know Mandel is off on a sabbatical, but doesn't anyone over there answer questions?
-- Derek Stevenson, Mobile, Ala.
Ask and ye shall receive.
Ever seen Smokey and the Bandit Part 3, Derek? With Burt Reynolds lurking in the shadows, Jerry Reed dons the Bandit's hat, slaps on a fake mustache and climbs behind the wheel of a Trans Am. Well, with Stewart Mandel on sabbatical and spring football in the books, someone has to (try to) don the mailbag cap. Like the third Smokey film, the template of this mailbag will seem awfully familiar, but it's going to be a slightly different ride. Also, there won't be any mustaches.
My pieces on 10 stars poised to break out in 2009 and spring winners and losers sparked so many questions, my inbox appears more crowded than the Ole Miss bandwagon. So let's get to it.
Apparently you haven't been paying attention to the Northwest. Jamere Holland, WR, Oregon. He has been having a terrific spring. By October the whole nation will know who he is.
-- Bruce, Portland, Ore.
Cory, no mention of the Ducks on the winners? What the frack?
-- Andy, Eugene, Ore.
I never see any [Oregon State] players get preseason hype, yet we had the second most players drafted this year and had a few All-Americas. Watch out for Stephen Paea, he is a lock for a first-round choice and I doubt he stays after this year; also Darrell Catchings will have a breakout year since he moved into Sammie Stroughter's spot and is having a huge spring.
-- T.J. Hyde, Lorane, Ore.
I'll acknowledge a lack of Beaver State coverage, but there's a reason: If I'm handing out grades for spring game performances, I'm giving Oregon and Oregon State incompletes.
That's not to say the Ducks and Beavers won't contend in the Pac-10 this fall -- in fact, the teams checked in at No. 8 and No. 18, respectively, in Andy Staples' post-spring Top 25. But it's hard to get excited about these teams when their situations make it hard to know what's real and what's fake (in stark contrast to the Rock of Love cast).
Oregon State's defense, which returns just three starters, looked great in the spring game, picking off five passes and recovering two fumbles. Junior tackle Stephen Paea and senior linebacker Keaton Kristick could vie for all-conference honors. But even with those two plugging up the middle, the defense's spring domination loses much of its cachet because coach Mike Riley held his most potent offensive weapons, brothers Jacquizz and James Rodgers, out of contact drills.
With the Rodgers brothers out, Darrell Catchings starred for the Beavers this spring, catching 16 balls for 454 yards and four touchdowns in the scrimmages and erasing any doubts about which receiver will line up opposite James Rodgers this season. He could break out, but it's still too soon to put him in Sammie Stroughter's class. At the very least, Catchings should serve the Beavers well as a downfield threat who will open up the middle of the field for Jacquizz, the reigning Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, and take pressure off James on his trademark fly sweeps.
We just didn't get to see any of that this spring.
The Ducks, meanwhile, are a serious work-in-progress. The offensive line must replace NFL-bound center Max Unger, guard Mark Lewis and left tackle Fenuki Tupou. Whoever fills those sizeable shoes will block for LeGarrette Blount, the Ducks' top returning rusher, whose weight ballooned to nearly 250 pounds this offseason after a suspension and ankle injury. It's no wonder the first-team defense dominated the first-team offense in the spring finale and held the bloated Blount to 14 yards on nine carries.
Admittedly, receiver Jamere Holland could have cracked the breakout players list. The USC transfer displayed his game-changing speed on a 47-yard flea flicker catch in the Holiday Bowl and drew rave reviews from new head coach Chip Kelly this spring. Holland will prove a threat in Kelly's spread-option offense, but let's take his spring success with a grain of salt. With Patrick Chung and Jarius Byrd gone, the secondary has as many holes to fill as the offensive line. When Holland locked up with Walter Thurmond, Oregon's best remaining corner, he managed only three catches for eight yards.
These are two intriguing, but hard-to-read teams. It'll take some time, as Brett Michaels would say, to figure out who wants to stay and rock our world.
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russ1945 · May 7, 2009

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With the core of Missouri's potent 2008 offense gone, 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington must take the pressure off new starting QB Blaine Gabbert.
David E. Klutho/SI
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Did you even watch Mizzou's spring game? Our top two receivers didn't play because of injury and we obviously ran a very vanilla version of our play book. Good lord, journalism at it's best.
-- Elliott, Kansas City
You can't base your opinion of Mizzou football's entire spring off one scrimmage. That's just poor reporting. I'm not arguing that Missouri didn't lose a lot of players, but to say the Tigers looked "abysmal this spring," is inaccurate.
-- Michael Gaio, Minneapolis, Minn.
Granted, receivers Danario Alexander and Jared Perry, both coming off injuries, didn't play in the spring-ending scrimmage, and new offensive coordinator Dave Yost may have played things close to the vest. But let's not kid ourselves here, folks; the Tigers were underwhelming.
Without Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman, 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Washington and fellow tailback De'Vion Moore will be responsible for taking pressure off sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert. In the spring scrimmage, however, Washington and Moore combined for a paltry 17 yards on seven carries. The offense could only muster one score (a one-yard TD set up by a fumble) against a defense that ranked 98th in total defense and 69th in points allowed in 2008 and is replacing seven starters. That tells me there's a problem.
It's unlikely we'll see that level of ineptitude this season, but these Tigers still resemble a Saturday Night Live crew that just lost Eddie Murphy, Adam Sandler and Will Ferrell in one offseason. The stars left for bigger paydays, and Gary Pinkel and Co. will experience some growing pains while searching for their new identity in a conference defined by passing attacks.
The question for Tigers fans is: Will Gabbert end up more closely resembling John Belushi, who became a star after Chevy Chase left, or the appalling Charles Rocket? His 9-of-17, 97-yard, one interception performance in the Black and Gold game wasn't great, but it doesn't mean he'll fail as Daniel's successor, either. Could have been jitters. Regardless, Gabbert's development will likely decide whether Missouri factors in the Big 12 North race, or simply concerns itself with performing respectably against Todd Reesing, Kerry Meier and Kansas.
By the way, before you branded me as hypocritical or a Mizzou hater, remember the Tigers' spring differed greatly from Oregon's and Oregon State's because the Ducks and Beaves have well-defined cores, while we simply don't know what to expect from the Tigers. They could go 4-8, they could go 8-4.
Do you think Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks can win at least 11 games next season and go to a BCS bowl game?
-- Gary, Paragould, Ark.
Not a hog fan, but Bobby can turn them around quickly. I personally think he will challenge LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss for the West title. Someone better be able to guard the Razorback offense. They will be tough to beat. DARK HORSE.
-- Joseph Barr, Simmesport, La.
Ryan Mallett should give Bobby Petrino's offense everything it needs. He's big (6-foot-7), strong-armed and understands the offense (he sat out last year, but this will be his second season in the power-spread, a luxury predecessor Casey Dick didn't have). Plus, let's not forget Mallett gained invaluable game experience by appearing in 11 games as a freshman at Michigan.
Petrino hasn't formally named Mallett the starter over Tyler Wilson, who himself made a compelling case to be the starter this spring, but it'd be a surprise if anyone but Mallett took the first snap on Sept. 5 against Missouri State.
As for whether Mallett can lead the Razorbacks to a BCS game, however ...
Running back Michael Smith's return will benefit Mallett, but there's the matter of replacing Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs at center and shoring up a defense that returns all 11 starters but gave up 375 yards and 31 points per game in '08. Oh, and the schedule includes trips to Alabama, Texas A&M, Florida, Ole Miss and LSU. And though Petrino gave the Hogs something to build off of by leading them to a win over LSU in the final game of '08, it's premature to assume he'll turn them into a true SEC West threat in '09. The Hogs should return to a bowl game this season, but it won't be of the BCS variety.
Hey Cory, just wondering what your take is on Dan Hawkins' latest at Colorado? HELMET CAMS for the quarterbacks??? There is even a blog on the subject!
-- Jeff Granger, Boulder, Co.
Thanks for the tip, Jeff. I really can't believe more teams aren't using these. Helmet cams give coaches an invaluable first-hand look at exactly what the QB sees as he goes through his progressions and at what he sees developing down field. It's a pretty simple concept and I wouldn't be surprised to see other teams implement it.
It is, however, a little ironic that Hawkins is using technology to aid his program, but closed practices 10 days into spring after ripping fans for posting too much information on blogs and message boards. It's the nature of the beast because after all ... It's Division I football. ... It's the Big 12. ... It's not intramurals. Sorry, couldn't resist.
As far as those QB tapes go, you have to think there's at least one Hawkins rant on there that could find its way onto YouTube. No coach has a bigger propensity to shoot from the hip, and candid camera Hawkins is the stuff of pay-per-view dreams. I know I'd pay $59.99 to see Hawkins: Uncut and Uncensored.
What about Taylor Mays, USC safety, as a household name?
-- Roderick Powe, Los Angeles
You mean first-team All-America Taylor Mays? I'm going to act like you didn't ask that question.


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russ1945 · May 7, 2009

The story above goes back to January and is from si.com. Thought I would put it on again. Has some pretty good takes, espeicially on Arkansas.

russ1945 · May 8, 2009

They are Sophmores now

TRUE FRESHMEN PLAYED IN 2008

2008 FBS FRESHMEN LEADERS

russ1945 · May 8, 2009

2008 Fresman All Americans

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</TD><TD class=text align=right width="50%">Jan. 8, 2009
For Immediate Release
Contact: Mike Griffith
865-755-5599</TD></TR><TR><TD class=deckhead colSpan=2>116 players nominated for 8th annual team</TD></TR><TR><TD class=headline align=middle colSpan=2>FWAA NAMES 2008 AON INSURANCE
FRESHMAN ALL-AMERICA TEAM</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text colSpan=2>FT. LAUDERDALE, Fla. (FWAA) – The Football Writers Association of America and Aon Insurance announced their eighth annual Freshman All-America Team on Thursday morning during the association's annual awards breakfast. Each member of the team will receive a custom-designed mini helmet courtesy of Schutt Sports, the world's leading maker of football helmets and faceguards.

The Atlantic Coast, Big Ten, Southeastern, Big 12 and Pacific-10 conferences each placed four players on the 27-man team. Conference USA was the only other conference with multiple players on the team with two. Of the 27 players selected, 14 were true freshmen and 12 were redshirt freshmen.
In addition, Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson was named the top first-year coach at his school after leading the Yellow Jackets to a 9-4 season and a berth in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.
The team and coach are selected by a 11-person panel of writers led by Mike Griffith of the Knoxville News Sentinel. Both true freshmen and redshirt freshmen were considered for the team and are so noted. A total of 116 players were nominated for the team and considered by the committee.
<TABLE class=text cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="90%" align=center bgColor=#000000><TBODY><TR><TD class=navigation align=middle colSpan=5>2008 AON INSURANCE FWAA FRESHMAN ALL-AMERICA TEAM</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tabledeck colSpan=5>OFFENSE</TD></TR><TR><TD class=reversetext align=middle>Pos.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Player, School</TD><TD class=reversetext>Ht.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Wt.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Hometown</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>QB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Kellen Moore, Boise State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-0</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>187</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Prosser, Wash.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>RB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Darren Evans, Virginia Tech</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-0</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>210</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Indianapolis, Ind.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>RB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-7</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>193</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Richmond, Texas</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>WR</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• DeAndre Brown, Southern Miss</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-6</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>228</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Ocean Springs, Miss.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>WR</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• A.J. Green, Georgia</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-4</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>200</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Summerville, S.C.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>WR</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Julio Jones, Alabama</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-4</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>210</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Foley, Ala.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>T</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Andrew Datko, Florida State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-6</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>276</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Weston, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>T</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Matt Reynolds, BYU</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-6</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>321</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Provo, Utah</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>G</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Joel Foreman, Michigan State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-3</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>308</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Highland, Mich.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>G</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Moe Petrus, Connecticut</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-2</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>276</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>St. Laurent, Quebec</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>C</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Michael Brewster, Ohio State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-5</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>296</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Orlando, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tabledeck colSpan=5>DEFENSE</TD></TR><TR><TD class=reversetext align=middle>Pos.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Player, School</TD><TD class=reversetext>Ht.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Wt.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Hometown</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>DE</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Brandon Harold, Kansas State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-6</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>264</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>East St. Louis, Ill.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>DE</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Thomas Keiser, Stanford</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-5</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>252</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Wexford, Pa.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>DT</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Marcus Forston, Miami</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-2</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>302</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Miami, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>DT</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Lawrence Guy, Arizona State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-5</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>270</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Las Vegas, Nev.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>LB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Dont'a Hightower, Alabama</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-4</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>250</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Lewisburg, Tenn.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>LB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Travis Lewis, Oklahoma</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-2</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>232</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>San Antonio, Texas</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>LB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Brandon Maye, Clemson</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-2</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>215</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Mobile, Ala.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>CB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Janoris Jenkins, Florida</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-10</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>185</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Pahokee, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>CB</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Jordan Mabin, Northwestern</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-11</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>180</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Northfield Center, Ohio</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Sean Baker, Ball State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-1</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>205</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Canfield, Ohio</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>S</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Earl Thomas, Texas</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-10</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>195</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Orange, Texas</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tabledeck colSpan=5>SPECIALISTS</TD></TR><TR><TD class=reversetext align=middle>Pos.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Player, School</TD><TD class=reversetext>Ht.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Wt.</TD><TD class=reversetext>Hometown</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>P</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Bryan Anger, California</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-4</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>196</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Camarillo, Calif.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>K</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Philip Welch, Wisconsin</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>6-3</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>190</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Fort Collins, Colo.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>KR</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Leonard Johnson, Iowa State</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-10</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>179</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Clearwater, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>PR</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• T.Y. Hilton, Florida International</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-10</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>175</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Miami, Fla.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text align=middle bgColor=#ffffff>ATH</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>• Damaris Johnson, Tulsa</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>5-8</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>175</TD><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff>Norco, La.</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tabledeck colSpan=5>HEAD COACH</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=5>Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech</TD></TR><TR><TD class=text bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=5>• Denotes true freshman</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The Football Writers Association of America, a non-profit organization founded in 1941, consists of nearly 1,000 men and women across North America who cover college football for a living. The membership includes journalists, broadcasters and publicists, as well as key executives in all the areas that involve the game. 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russ1945 · May 11, 2009

LSU/Washington

I see some other threads are already anticipating first week matchups even without spreads. The LSU/Washington game has been discussed with a lot of focus on Jake Locker, etc. Well it is a little early and with no line I will discuss what I see as a mismatch right upfront, coaching.

LSU's head coach, OC and DC have all been coaching since the early 1980's. Washington's HC, OC, and DC are all in their first years in those positions at Washington. Anyone suffering from the delusion that Washington is going to pull off the upset of the century in week one against LSU better wake up and thank goodness you have a few months to have that reality check. Now with no line it is way too early to speculate about who is going to pull the spread, so we shall wait on that.

Meanwhile, although Washington has the home field advantage I am afraid that will be a moot point once the game begins. Among other technical points that we have all summer to discuss LSU had the #30 rated scoring offense and they are going against Washintons defense which rated 116th in scoring defense with a new DC and a new scheme. OUCH! LY Washington was 116th in total offense and they will be going against LSU's defense that rated 32nd in total defense. And the new LSU DC, John Chavis who came over from Tennesee this year, will be throwing the book at Locker as he begins an new era.

This game being moved to national TV just about puts an end to any mercy on LSU's part as they now have the added incentive of "showing off" to a national audience instead of just sneaking in and out of Washington with just a win. This may be showtime as some really exceptional athletes receiving experienced coaching from seasoned veterans who are hungry going against a team who is used to losing and some coaches who have never proved they can. Enough said.

UoweDucks · May 11, 2009

russ1945 said:
I see some other threads are already anticipating first week matchups even without spreads. The LSU/Washington game has been discussed with a lot of focus on Jake Locker, etc. Well it is a little early and with no line I will discuss what I see as a mismatch right upfront, coaching.

LSU's head coach, OC and DC have all been coaching since the early 1980's. Washington's HC, OC, and DC are all in their first years in those positions at Washington. Anyone suffering from the delusion that Washington is going to pull off the upset of the century in week one against LSU better wake up and thank goodness you have a few months to have that reality check. Now with no line it is way too early to speculate about who is going to pull the spread, so we shall wait on that.

Meanwhile, although Washington has the home field advantage I am afraid that will be a moot point once the game begins. Among other technical points that we have all summer to discuss LSU had the #30 rated scoring offense and they are going against Washintons defense which rated 116th in scoring defense with a new DC and a new scheme. OUCH! LY Washington was 116th in total offense and they will be going against LSU's defense that rated 32nd in total defense. And the new LSU DC, John Chavis who came over from Tennesee this year, will be throwing the book at Locker as he begins an new era.

This game being moved to national TV just about puts an end to any mercy on LSU's part as they now have the added incentive of "showing off" to a national audience instead of just sneaking in and out of Washington with just a win. This may be showtime as some really exceptional athletes receiving experienced coaching from seasoned veterans who are hungry going against a team who is used to losing and some coaches who have never proved they can. Enough said.

I can only hope that the lsu players and the bookmakers underestimate UW like that.

Depending on the number I'll take the poodles, hoping for high teens/low twenties. Last yrs numbers won't tell you much. Locker missed most of the season and the huskies add EJ Savanah at LB. I know you read Phil Steele, see what his opinion is of Savanah. This game is a not a rollover, I expect uw will give lsu a fight that they may not be prepared for, at least in the first half. They'll taper off once the adrenalin wears down.

I've gone in depth with my points on the P10 thread.

russ1945 · May 11, 2009

Ducks

My numbers point toward LSU -21.8 +/- homefield for Washington. If this was not the first game of the season and on national TV I would be like you and look for Washington to give a battle. I do not think I am understimating Washington and I have not committed to who I would bet on yet either. However, with this much time to prepare and Chaves out to make a statement and win the confidence of his defensive players I don't know. Washington must score more than 17 points to have a chance of pulling in my opinion. The crowd, new coaches, etc. may fuel the fire for a while but if LSU gets control early the fans will lose interest and it will be dejevu all over again.

UoweDucks · May 11, 2009

russ1945 said:
My numbers point toward LSU -21.8 +/- homefield for Washington. If this was not the first game of the season and on national TV I would be like you and look for Washington to give a battle. I do not think I am understimating Washington and I have not committed to who I would bet on yet either. However, with this much time to prepare and Chaves out to make a statement and win the confidence of his defensive players I don't know. Washington must score more than 17 points to have a chance of pulling in my opinion. The crowd, new coaches, etc. may fuel the fire for a while but if LSU gets control early the fans will lose interest and it will be dejevu all over again.

Sorry for implying that you are underestimating them. Perhaps I am projecting on you what I think the books, LSU's fans, and even players will do. It's early to get too detailed. And for me, I don't crunch numbers much but what I sense is based on a long history of following uw, if LSU doesn't come in ready for a brawl they just might find themselves in one. I am getting a decent vibe on uw and I haven't gotten that for quite a few years.

russ1945 · May 11, 2009

UoweDucks said:
Sorry for implying that you are underestimating them. Perhaps I am projecting on you what I think the books, LSU's fans, and even players will do. It's early to get too detailed. And for me, I don't crunch numbers much but what I sense is based on a long history of following uw, if LSU doesn't come in ready for a brawl they just might find themselves in one. I am getting a decent vibe on uw and I haven't gotten that for quite a few years.

Yes, I see where you are coming from but in my opinion there aren't many worse draws under the circumstances than LSU at the onset of the new season. I love Locker who would have been great as a tailback in the old single wing formation. Man, I just cannot think myself out of the coaching edge involved in this matchup it is monumental. I don't know how that translates into points though. Really the only reason I made that post was to talk about the coaching edge. It is not often you find that much of a gap and I just thought it was worth mentioning.

russ1945 · May 12, 2009

Nevada/Notre Dame

I just posted some stuff on this game on another thread (opening games head up). No sense repeating it here. If you are interested in that matchup you can catch it on that thread. I am going to spend the next day of two going back and rereading this thread. I started posting very early and I don't want to get redundant. If you are just joining in you might go back and start this thread from the beginning like I am. It is not all me. I have done a lot of research and truthfully am running out of materials to research. If you see something in an old posting that you think is worth rehashing or is in fact in correct let me know. I have had a lot of fun doing this (my first time on a forum) but I have been handicapping for about 40 years and I have decided to devote more time to it as I look forward to retirement and the possibility of this being more than a hobby. I rely heavily on philsteele.com, rivals.com, espn.com, and the NCAA for statistics and info. Since I am running low on ammo if anyone has something they want me to research lay it on me. Ready, willling, and able. Good luck.

erv · May 12, 2009

Russ-
Do you look at any D1-AA schools?

russ1945 · May 12, 2009

erv said:
Russ-
Do you look at any D1-AA schools?

I have never researched them before. I have noticed the NCAA keeps statistics for them however. In order to do thorough and up to date research on any teams you need to have access to updated info and usually this requires that school to have a good home site for athletics.
Things like depth charts, coaching changes, etc. are often hard to obtain and if you can't get all the information you are on the wrong end of the stick right from the get go. Did you have a particular team or conference in mind?

russ1945 · May 12, 2009

Mighty Ginseng can you hear me now?

I guess I have become an Arizona fan by committee. You had some encouraging words back in April and I just wondered if there was anything new out your way about Arizona. I read some comments about how fit all the players looked this year compared to years past. Does that ring true?
If so that is a good sign that the players are buying in. It is lonely on this Island and I just wondered if you had an extra coconut you could share with a shipwrecked Okie. I feel like the knight guarding the bridge in the Monte Python movie "In search of the Holy Grail."

MightyGinseng · May 12, 2009

russ1945 said:
I guess I have become an Arizona fan by committee. You had some encouraging words back in April and I just wondered if there was anything new out your way about Arizona. I read some comments about how fit all the players looked this year compared to years past. Does that ring true?
If so that is a good sign that the players are buying in. It is lonely on this Island and I just wondered if you had an extra coconut you could share with a shipwrecked Okie. I feel like the knight guarding the bridge in the Monte Python movie "In search of the Holy Grail."

I'm having a hell of a time finding the spring game results from a few weeks ago. I do know that there is a kid named "Bug" Wright who was being talked about as a replacement for Mike Thomas at WR. Bug absolutely killed the spring game. I want to say he included a TD run for like 80 yards. He is billed as a speedster and has some big shoes to fill replacing AZ's leading pass catcher of all time in Thomas.

"Arizona coaches have said they won't mind rotating the two quarterbacks in the opening games of the 2009 season until somebody emerges." Not sure how well that would work.

The offense loses a step at QB, which I do not believe will be a major problem due to both the mobility of the new guys and the short dump passes the offense relies on. I'm wondering how well they'll be able to replace both offensive tackles... That is my only real question for the offense. I'll start posting whatever articles I read in the morning paper.

On the defensive side of the ball: "Seven starters return on a defense that finished third in the Pac-10 in scoring defense, rushing defense and total defense. " They keep their front seven. Great news. AZ consistently has a good secondary, not sure if its great recruits or great coaching. Brooks Reid at DE was an absolute monster with 8 sacks last year and will help out the young secondary with the pressure he can bring.

I look for a notch down on the offense, and the defense to step up a bit from last year (if the secondary holds). Only cause for concern was in 2007 we had 10 starters on D back and they got 7 points per game worse. Yuck. That can't happen again, can it?

MightyGinseng · May 12, 2009

My guess this year:

September 5 Central Michigan W
September 12 Northern Arizona W
September 19 at Iowa (I don't have a feel for Iowa) W/L
September 26 at Oregon State W/L Revenge from last year
October 10 at Washington W
October 17 Stanford W
October 24 UCLA W
November 7 Washington State W
November 14 at California L
November 21 Oregon L
November 28 at Arizona State W
December 5 at USC L

If they can close out games (see last minute wins by Stanford, OSU last year) I really don't think getting back to 8 wins will be a problem.

Looking ahead to next season

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