Live In-Play Thread Strategy's

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

Look at the box score Houston scores 2 runs in the top of the 5th
Odds are like +375 because Pitt. coming to bat.
5th inning over + 415 middle of 6th + 390
end of 6th + 465 end of 7th +675
Pitt is at home and they have 6 outs are you trying to tell me Pitt.
can not score 5 runs with just 3 outs much less 6 outs.

 

[blackchina]

What are these bullshit numbers? Hou would be 1 - 1.40[/QUOT

Ok hous. lay 100 to win 140 pregame
after making ins. bet of $20 to win $135 my odds are now risking $65 to win $260 or now houston is 1 to win 4

How did you get 4 to 1 on Houston. They were never losing

 

[blackchina]

Okay you saying bet $20 on pitt

 

[rpark]

Correction for post # 28 calculations wrong.
Assuming Houston wins the game
pregame hous + 140 2u 200 to win 280
ins. Pitt. + 675 .2u $20 to win $135
roi 65 to win 260 = 4 -1 instead of 1.4 - 1.00

I don't think you calculation is correct.

Assume Hou hangs on and wins 90% of the time:


$200 wager means you should wing $280*90% and lose $200 10% of the time


Expected return for this bet is 280 *9/10 - 200*1/10 = 252 - 20 = $232



$220 Wager will have you win ($280-$20)(Hou wins) 90% of the time and lose ($200-135)(Pitt wins) 10% of the time


Expected return for this bet = $260*9/10 - $135*1/10 = $234 - 6.5 = $227.5

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

The reason I started this thread was so hopefully I can find just 1 person that understands how powerful this is.
It does require a lot of time watching the games and waiting for the right opportunity
to increase ROI or Return on Investment. You have to be ready to pull the trigger because the line only up for around 60 seconds due to time delays.
So I normally play 5u pregame this way I have 1 extra unit to make my insurance bet.

The perfect thing that can happen I have Houston + 140 500- 700
Then Houston scores 3 or 4 runs in 3 innings or 4 innings and the score is 4-0
Now when I go to live I will get+3.5 runs close to even money maybe -120
So my rule is 25% of the $500 or $125 in this situation I would most likely
play to win 100 so pitt. + 3.5 runs -120 = 120 to win 100
Then the m/l will be over +500 so I would play 10% of my 500
I bet 50 to win 250
Not counting the + 3.5 runs action my m/l action looks like this
If houston wins the game I win +700 - 50 = 650
If Pitt wins the game I lose -500 + 250 = - 250
so now my roi is 250 to win 650 = 1 to win 2.6 instead of + 140.

The Pitt + 3.5 is just icing on the cake I can not lose Hous. and Pitt.

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

It is obvious you guys do not understand simple math and or money management so I guess I will just go do this myself.
No problem everyone has a opinion.
My math is 100% correct and math does not lie it is a world wide language only people lie when they manipulate the math
to steal someone's money.
I showed you a live example and you still can not comprehend simple math
The bookies are laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[rpark]

I don't think you calculation is correct.

Assume Hou hangs on and wins 90% of the time:


$200 wager means you should wing $280*90% and lose $200 10% of the time


Expected return for this bet is 280 *9/10 - 200*1/10 = 252 - 20 = $232



$220 Wager will have you win ($280-$20)(Hou wins) 90% of the time and lose ($200-135)(Pitt wins) 10% of the time


Expected return for this bet = $260*9/10 - $135*1/10 = $234 - 6.5 = $227.5

Correction:
Expected return for this bet = $260*9/10 - $65*1/10 = $234 - 6.5 = $227.5

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

Correction:
Expected return for this bet = $260*9/10 - $65*1/10 = $234 - 6.5 = $227.5

I understand what you are saying the problem is we are talking about protecting our bankrolls without the bankroll
you are dead so I will buy the ins. all day long to protect my br.

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

If anyone interested I will work with anyone serious.
I know this is not perfect yet but it is very close.
Hopefully I find someone a lot smarter than me so we can get rid of
any mistakes.

 

[rpark]

I guess that depends on what % of your bankroll you have on the outcome of a game pregame. I agree it will reduce variance.

 

[rpark]

I guess that depends on what % of your bankroll you have on the outcome of a game pregame. I agree it will reduce variance.

I assumed Hou wins 90% of the time. I didn't work the numbers but if Hou wins 80% of the time, I think you have a higher ROI due to the hedging.

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

I guess that depends on what % of your bankroll you have on the outcome of a game pregame. I agree it will reduce variance.

I bet 1% , 2%, 3%, or 4% pregame most of the time 4% if I am losing like the last 10 days I cut it to 2% max.
Like I said earlier my max. bet live on a r/l is 25% of my pregame risk
My ins. bet is max. 10% of pregame risk these figures are for the whole game.
So if bet 4% pregame I only bet 1% live on the r/l for the whole game and 10% of the 4% for ins. for the whole game.
So if I lay 400 pregame to win 500 I only allow myself 100 for live r/l action for the whole game sometimes
I might make 2 or 3 r/l bets live but the total is $100 or less and I want + 2.5 runs for that bet.
Ins. allowed is 10% of 400 or $40 same thing I might make 2 or 3 of ins. bets but the total is $40 or less and I want + 500 odds to make these bets sometimes I will take + 400 depending on the situation.
Just need a little fine tuning ex: adding tbay + 2.5 runs was a small mistake but still it was a mistake.

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

I assumed Hou wins 90% of the time. I didn't work the numbers but if Hou wins 80% of the time, I think you have a higher ROI due to the hedging.

The thing is no one knows what is going to happen in any game if we did we would live in a penthouse sweet in Las Vegas with a sportsbook on the first floor and a poker room and bar and a lot of babes

 

[Betallsports]

Boss, Please stay out of this guys threads.

unless you want a vacation.

Thanks

 

[dd_1_pl_4_u_]

​Looking at the board for Tues. I like colo. -130 listed pitcher's lay 130 to win 1U.

 

[rpark]

The thing is no one knows what is going to happen in any game if we did we would live in a penthouse sweet in Las Vegas with a sportsbook on the first floor and a poker room and bar and a lot of babes

I have a math background. My handicapping starts off with stats and then I adjust them based on other variable factors. I do this for everything I bet on. I played the horses starting in 1990, started online poker in 2006, baseball in 2009. I still do all 3 of these now.

If you played poker, then you know pocket pairs beat AK 52% of the time. So, I play my AK or pocket pair based on the expected outcome over the long run and not what would happen the next time I get AK or PP. I believe in Math and everything averages out to a stat over the long run. So my question is why would you not approach the Hou game the same way?

My conclusion based on math is that what you did in the Hou game was a positive to your ROI versus not hedging in game. S, it makes sense in that example.

I was looking at the in game lines last night and it does look like the books want you to put an inline bet on the favorite for ML. Juice at my book is around 8% for OU in game versus 5% pregame and in game ML juice is 10% versus 5% pregame.

Interesting topic, I still need to investigate further.

 

[rpark]

I risk 1% of my bankroll on average, sometimes go to 2%. 4% is too high for my liking. I use to take money out of my bankroll and spend it but I stopped doing that. If I lose my bankroll I'm done. That's the one rule I abide to.