Live Handicapping Thread Saturday 4/3/21

[Michelangelo]

OK, guys and gals. Do we have any gals? We were getting caught up in trying to handicap too fast at too many tracks at once. The results were not good. WE should know better.

Solid handicapping requires full attention to all aspects of handicapping, the form and every little symbol in it, the odds, and any number of intervening circumstances.

I personally need to slow down and do a thorough job and be more selective.

Gonna try my best to adhere to those rules today.

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We've got a big card going as there are three Derby Prep races running today - THe Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, The Blue Grass at Keenland, and the Santa Anita Derby in Cali.

Tampa Bay kicks off the card at 12:10.

The weather looks great for most of the country. Expecting to see all races run as carded.

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Again, gonna try to be more disciplined. Let's see if I can pull it off.

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All welcome to participate. Please keep a running record. Thanks. And good luck.

 

[Michelangelo]

Starters (all thoroughly handicapped):

12:10 post time
TBY
1st
$24.00 Win
#3 Abby Hatcher
- great turf breeding
- 1st start on turf
- stretching out
- upgrading to best jockey (Gallardo)

///

12:50
Aqu
1st
$24.00 Win
#3 My Delicious
- Best early speed off last race
- Confirmed by second place finish by 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the third place finisher
- second race off drop into claiming ranks after drop out of MSW
- Small stable trainer with 26% win percentage
- Upgrades to super jock (Irad)

1:00
GP
1st
$6.00 exactas
#10 over #s 3, 4, 7
$2.00 exactas
#s 3, 4, 7 over #10

///


Will do the accounting when these three races are complete.

 

[Jack1999]

OK Michel sounds good will be following the action. Good Luck

 

[Longsilver]

MAH-R1) #2 Mighty Fast 6$WP

 

[Longsilver]

MAH-R1) #2 Mighty Fast 6$WP

2nd paid 17$

 

[Longsilver]

+5$. TAM-R2) Ex Box 3$: 4,5

 

[MrGandT]

AQU Race 1

$4WP 4,6
$4Ex 4/3,6

Risking $24

As much as I agree with Mich and Mel; and hate to go against them. But the reason that I like the 4 more is because after 6 dismal tries on the turf, the 4 has done so much better on dirt (4 tries, 2 seconds, 1 third, 1 lost jock). She was claimed by Englehart, and now it the trainer and owner; switched to the other Ortiz, Should be solid exacta, 4/3; gonna throw it the 6 because she is the unknown. 1 is also unraced, but don't care much about the bug.

GL all

 

[Jack1999]

good call Michel Tampa r1 7/2 score

 

[Longsilver]

+5$. TAM-R2) Ex Box 3$: 4,5

winner paid 55$

 

[Jack1999]

winner paid 55$

nice score LS

 

[Melniko]

Good luck today, guys, I see Mich got us kicked off with a winner in the 1st at TB. Longsilver followed with a game 2nd at Mahoning and a nice exacta at Tampa. G&T hit his 4/3,6 ex box as well. Gonna be a great Saturday following a Good Friday.

GP race 1 - I'll kick off my day with a bomb
$4 WP #5 Mister Fernando - gets the bug boy for his 2nd off the layoff and 2nd time Lasix. Worth a shot at more than 25-1.

 

[Longsilver]

+54$. GP-R1) Ex Box 3$: 7,9

 

[Michelangelo]

AQU Race 1

$4WP 4,6
$4Ex 4/3,6

Risking $24

As much as I agree with Mich and Mel; and hate to go against them. But the reason that I like the 4 more is because after 6 dismal tries on the turf, the 4 has done so much better on dirt (4 tries, 2 seconds, 1 third, 1 lost jock). She was claimed by Englehart, and now it the trainer and owner; switched to the other Ortiz, Should be solid exacta, 4/3; gonna throw it the 6 because she is the unknown. 1 is also unraced, but don't care much about the bug.

GL all

And you, sir, were correct in your assessment. Nice start.

 

[Michelangelo]

Starters (all thoroughly handicapped):

12:10 post time
TBY
1st
$24.00 Win
#3 Abby Hatcher
- great turf breeding
- 1st start on turf
- stretching out
- upgrading to best jockey (Gallardo)

///

12:50
Aqu
1st
$24.00 Win
#3 My Delicious
- Best early speed off last race
- Confirmed by second place finish by 7 3/4 lengths ahead of the third place finisher
- second race off drop into claiming ranks after drop out of MSW
- Small stable trainer with 26% win percentage
- Upgrades to super jock (Irad)

1:00
GP
1st
$6.00 exactas
#10 over #s 3, 4, 7
$2.00 exactas
#s 3, 4, 7 over #10

///


Will do the accounting when these three races are complete.

TBy Win 9.00 x 12 = 108.00
Aqu second Rip.
GP Comes 3-4 Rip.

-24.00 -24.00 -24.00 = -72.00
+108.00

 

[Melniko]

$8/$0 - (-$8.00)

TB Race 3
$4 WP #6 Misty Express
$1 ex key box 6/3,4

 

[Melniko]

$20/$0 - (-$20.00)

Oaklawn Race 1
$2 ex box 3,9
$1 ex 3,9/3,7,8,9

 

[Melniko]

Gotta run for a while but just placed a couple of Pick 3's

GP Race 2 - 1/2,3,4,5/1,3,4

Kee Race 2 - 2/6,7,9,11/1,10,12

 

[Michelangelo]

Oak
1st
$12.00 Win
#9 Gentle Knight
$6.00 ex Box
#s 3, 9
($24.00 total bet)
1 min

 

[Longsilver]

+48$. MAH-R4) #2 Monsoon Rain 6$WP

 

[Michelangelo]

Oak
1st
$12.00 Win
#9 Gentle Knight
$6.00 ex Box
#s 3, 9
($24.00 total bet)
1 min

My first total stinker for today. Ugh.

-72.00 -24.00 = -96.00
+108.00