Line Movement Question?

[VicExpressMember#1]

Hi I had a question about line movements and iwas hoping you could help me out. Let's say 12 percent of the public likes an udnerdog to cover a line that opens at +5.5 for the underdog.

However, if the line closes at +4.5 for the underdog, does that mean it moved towards the 88 percent and the favorite, or did it move towards the smaller % since the number increased?

Thanks

 

[Budworth22]

Vic, that would indicate that there was signifigant sharp action on the underdog. Obviously, it would have been more advantageous to bet the underdog early on for more line value. The books are trying to discourage underdog action, and encourage favorite action. A disproportioniate amount of money on a very small pick % team is always an interesting situation.

 

[ensign_lee]

In this instance, the book moved the line to a lower number, so that people would be more inclined to bet on the favorite.

That being said, if they moved the line from +5.5 to +4.5, I doubt it would really make that big of a difference. Very few NFL games are decided by a margin of 5 points.