So getting +135 on a moneyline win, instead of +125, doesn't matter? But since what you said is irrefutable, I should just stop here.
So getting +135 on a moneyline win, instead of +125, doesn't matter? But since what you said is irrefutable, I should just stop here.
i agree with line movement. I usually watch to see where it goes right off the bat. the overnight movement can tell you a lot. it does for me especially in college hoops.
I look at consensus, public plays but have trouble being selective! I can't just bet one game because I dont want to go 0-1 and think I can go 3-2 most likely ( which doesnt always happen )
I look at consensus, public plays but have trouble being selective! I can't just bet one game because I dont want to go 0-1 and think I can go 3-2 most likely ( which doesnt always happen )
It matters with favorites too, it's just easier to explain with dogs. Over 100's of bets eventually a half point will cost you, save you, or give you a push, which has more profound effect on your ROI than you might think. The thing is opening and closing #'s over the last 8 years are both pretty close to 50/50. From what I've seen they're anywhere from 49-51% accurate, with closing # being the most accurate, which means beating the vig is very hard. It also means the Market is pretty damn accurate, so beating the market by a big enough % to beat the vig is pretty important. If you can beat the number by 5% (on 10 cents of vig) which doesn't come along on every play on the board, but only a few, you will make money. Just a mathematical fact when the market is that accurate, which all the facts show them to be.
This is one of those cases where the math of the situation is irrefutable and makes some folks feel good. But the real life application in one man's lifespan, betting real money, and big money....... all things considered..... very few can begin to understand.
Someday for those who want to become real players...... you will understand the value in this:
"The closing line and the market don't mean crap. In hindsight you would always prefer to have the better of the price when you lose, because that is the only time it matters. (Exception... betting a few underdogs a collecting) Of course, I am talking baseball prices or money line prices.
Point spreads sometimes work like this:
They (the lines makers) know more than us (are smarter than us) in the long run. Sometimes (often) the prices that make us VERY uncomfortable are set that way for good reason and tell us that we need to be on the "uncomfortable" side. The other (losing) side is more comfortable and where you feel like you are beating the market. That is because the line moves that way due to all the sheep lining up to get clipped."
Someday for those who want to become real players...... you will understand the value in this:
"The closing line and the market don't mean crap. In hindsight you would always prefer to have the better of the price when you lose, because that is the only time it matters. (Exception... betting a few underdogs a collecting) Of course, I am talking baseball prices or money line prices.
Point spreads sometimes work like this:
They (the lines makers) know more than us (are smarter than us) in the long run. Sometimes (often) the prices that make us VERY uncomfortable are set that way for good reason and tell us that we need to be on the "uncomfortable" side. The other (losing) side is more comfortable and where you feel like you are beating the market. That is because the line moves that way due to all the sheep lining up to get clipped."
I'd say the first two sentences are pretty accurate. The second two sentences are not always accurate. There's a lot more to line movement than what the sheep are betting. It's a very complicated algorithm and the books get 3% or more breathing room for mistakes. Blindly fading the Public will only put you on the opposite side of 50/50 which is what the public is.
i watch lines and try and figure out why they are that way and where they will go.
injuries are a big part of my game,i have to know if certain players are going to play that day.
don't bet BAD TEAMS id rather stay away from a game then bet on a bad team
scheduling is important to me as my sports are college and there are games played more frequently especially in basketball.
i don't chase teams,nor play against streaks,or double up on bets when they lose early in the day/night
i bet the same amount on every wager i make,unless its a game to just watch on tv then ill just throw some very minor money on it.this way i don't have my winning bets paying less than the losing ones.
