Let's talk about the NFL Week #1 .... Who do you like ?

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I am leaning: Buff +3;STL +4; BALT+4.5. But I am still pondering
 
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Ok, just a little foot note here..

More than $95 billion will be wagered on NFL and CFB games this year, 96% outside of Vegas.

With an estimated $95 billion expected to be bet -- mostly illegally -- on football this season, research shows that a legal sports betting market in the U.S. would be the largest in the world.
 
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So let's get into a few games as I look over the overnight Lines...

As much as I don't like the fact that there is over 80% on the Green Bay packers, and the line has been level at 6.5 and a few 7's
I just can't see the Chicago Bears being even close in this one.
Yes John Fox the new head coach of the Bears will bring some insight to the Defense, but how will they score on Offense ??

Rodgers will be without Jordy Nelson his favorite target, but still has Cobb ( not 100% )
have a feeling Davante Adams will see a lot of action.

Game Stat : GB is 7-1 SU & ATS the last 8 games vs. Chicago
 
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Next up are the NY Jets ..

Just so you know the Jets are the Only game on the board that is trending with 70%
Meaning there is no reverse line movement here. There were 3's and a couple of 3.5's, now just about all 3.5's or a couple 3's with extra juice

Both teams have been a mess ... With Cleveland, their best WR is out for the season on a suspension. Josh McCown has replaced Manziel as starting QB, which make it their 13th Starting QB since 1999
and they cut Terrelle Pryor.

On the Jets side, well we all know what happened to Geno Smith ... and actually I think ... no, I KNOW that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a Plus over Smith.
The Big Pick up by the Jets though is Brandon Marshall, he's Big, Strong and has Great hands. He will be the main target for Fitzpatrick.
and if the Browns plan to double up on Marshall, i could see Decker finally paying off.... Decker had a slow start last season, but came alive late.

The other Huge pick ups for the Jets came on Defense, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. the question there is Who get's more INT's this season between the two ?
and then we have a New Coach, Todd Bowles ... the great mind behind the AZ Cardinals Defense. Which i would say he's Plus over Sexy Rexy

Anyway, this is not a Homer play... But I believe the Jets have enough skills and talent to win this one, and win by more then a TD
 
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Another game that has over 80% support, the Miami Dolphins , opening at 2.5 and now 3.5 across the board ( guess the NYJ aren't the only team moving up in the spread )

We all know why, because of RG3 not starting. Losing the job to Kirk Cousins who threw for 10 TD's last season to go along with his 9 INT's
but the Skins still have RB Alfred Morris, even though his stats have declined since 2012, going over 1600 yards in 2012, 1200 in 2013 and a little over 1,000 last season. He's still able to do a good job.
Cousins big targets should be DeSean Jackson , Pierre Garcon and Grant.

On the Fish side, well they sure have a lot of talent ... and where they failed at times last season, their huge pick up was Ndamukong Suh, which could mean trouble for both Morris and Cousins.
Just like when he played in Detroit, he's there to plug up any holes, and he sure is big enough to do that. lol
Plus he will face off against a Rookie on the other side for the Skins.

Speaking of Rookies, Miami has 3 Rookies starting ... RG jamil Douglas, Kicker, Andrew Franks who beat out Caleb Sturgis in the preseason. Sturgis led Miami in scoring the past two years but missed 16 field goals over that span.
and Matt Darr, an undrafted rookie, beating out former Pro Bowl punter Brandon Fields was one of the surprises of training camp.

QB Ryan Tannehill has plenty of talent on Offense, and his numbers have been steady, with last season being his best, with over 4,000 yards, 27 TD's and 12 INT's

The game almost seem like a Trap .. But I'm not buying it.
Only knock is the Fish is on the Road and I hate to bet against home dogs... But I just don't see how Miami losing this one.
 

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Ok, just a little foot note here..

More than $95 billion will be wagered on NFL and CFB games this year, 96% outside of Vegas.

With an estimated $95 billion expected to be bet -- mostly illegally -- on football this season, research shows that a legal sports betting market in the U.S. would be the largest in the world.

I have no idea as to how they arrived to the $95 Billion amount, but either way, it's a high amount.


:smoking:

:money8:
 

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Next up are the NY Jets ..

Just so you know the Jets are the Only game on the board that is trending with 70%
Meaning there is no reverse line movement here. There were 3's and a couple of 3.5's, now just about all 3.5's or a couple 3's with extra juice

Both teams have been a mess ... With Cleveland, their best WR is out for the season on a suspension. Josh McCown has replaced Manziel as starting QB, which make it their 13th Starting QB since 1999
and they cut Terrelle Pryor.

On the Jets side, well we all know what happened to Geno Smith ... and actually I think ... no, I KNOW that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a Plus over Smith.
The Big Pick up by the Jets though is Brandon Marshall, he's Big, Strong and has Great hands. He will be the main target for Fitzpatrick.
and if the Browns plan to double up on Marshall, i could see Decker finally paying off.... Decker had a slow start last season, but came alive late.

The other Huge pick ups for the Jets came on Defense, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. the question there is Who get's more INT's this season between the two ?
and then we have a New Coach, Todd Bowles ... the great mind behind the AZ Cardinals Defense. Which i would say he's Plus over Sexy Rexy

Anyway, this is not a Homer play... But I believe the Jets have enough skills and talent to win this one, and win by more then a TD

Will Brandon Marshall have a meltdown before week 8? Over -115
Under -115
 
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So let's get into a few games as I look over the overnight Lines...

As much as I don't like the fact that there is over 80% on the Green Bay packers, and the line has been level at 6.5 and a few 7's
I just can't see the Chicago Bears being even close in this one.
Yes John Fox the new head coach of the Bears will bring some insight to the Defense, but how will they score on Offense ??

Rodgers will be without Jordy Nelson his favorite target, but still has Cobb ( not 100% )
have a feeling Davante Adams will see a lot of action.


Game Stat : GB is 7-1 SU & ATS the last 8 games vs. Chicago

Just Covered which was good for the GB backers...


Next up are the NY Jets ..

Just so you know the Jets are the Only game on the board that is trending with 70%
Meaning there is no reverse line movement here. There were 3's and a couple of 3.5's, now just about all 3.5's or a couple 3's with extra juice

Both teams have been a mess ... With Cleveland, their best WR is out for the season on a suspension. Josh McCown has replaced Manziel as starting QB, which make it their 13th Starting QB since 1999
and they cut Terrelle Pryor.

On the Jets side, well we all know what happened to Geno Smith ... and actually I think ... no, I KNOW that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a Plus over Smith.
The Big Pick up by the Jets though is Brandon Marshall, he's Big, Strong and has Great hands. He will be the main target for Fitzpatrick.
and if the Browns plan to double up on Marshall, i could see Decker finally paying off.... Decker had a slow start last season, but came alive late.

The other Huge pick ups for the Jets came on Defense, Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. the question there is Who get's more INT's this season between the two ?
and then we have a New Coach, Todd Bowles ... the great mind behind the AZ Cardinals Defense. Which i would say he's Plus over Sexy Rexy

Anyway, this is not a Homer play... But I believe the Jets have enough skills and talent to win this one, and win by more then a TD

Easy Win for my New York JETS ... JETS JETS JETS


Another game that has over 80% support, the Miami Dolphins , opening at 2.5 and now 3.5 across the board ( guess the NYJ aren't the only team moving up in the spread )

We all know why, because of RG3 not starting. Losing the job to Kirk Cousins who threw for 10 TD's last season to go along with his 9 INT's
but the Skins still have RB Alfred Morris, even though his stats have declined since 2012, going over 1600 yards in 2012, 1200 in 2013 and a little over 1,000 last season. He's still able to do a good job.
Cousins big targets should be DeSean Jackson , Pierre Garcon and Grant.

On the Fish side, well they sure have a lot of talent ... and where they failed at times last season, their huge pick up was Ndamukong Suh, which could mean trouble for both Morris and Cousins.
Just like when he played in Detroit, he's there to plug up any holes, and he sure is big enough to do that. lol
Plus he will face off against a Rookie on the other side for the Skins.

Speaking of Rookies, Miami has 3 Rookies starting ... RG jamil Douglas, Kicker, Andrew Franks who beat out Caleb Sturgis in the preseason. Sturgis led Miami in scoring the past two years but missed 16 field goals over that span.
and Matt Darr, an undrafted rookie, beating out former Pro Bowl punter Brandon Fields was one of the surprises of training camp.

QB Ryan Tannehill has plenty of talent on Offense, and his numbers have been steady, with last season being his best, with over 4,000 yards, 27 TD's and 12 INT's

The game almost seem like a Trap .. But I'm not buying it.
Only knock is the Fish is on the Road and I hate to bet against home dogs... But I just don't see how Miami losing this one.

Wasn't Pretty and the Fish made you Sweat ... But Hey, a Win is a Win :)
 

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