Hi all,
I've been using some basic reasoning to bet on quarters and have gone 6 for 6 the last 2 weeks.
To start, I look for dogs that are playing against teams without particularly potent offenses. I then see if these dogs have either a. some scoring ability or b. a good defense.
When I find a matchup that fits this criterion, I'll bet the underdog at +.5 for the 1st and 3rd quarters. In one of these quarters, the dog will start with the ball, and in the other, the favorite will start, barring a big return, near their own 20. All the dog has to do is at least push the favorite for the quarter and they cover. The favorite can be at the dog's 1 yard line when the quarter expires and you still get the cover. There's no rush to score before the 1st and 3rd quarters end, unlike the 2nd and 4th. The juice on these quarters has ranged from -120 to -146.
The 6 for 6 I've hit has been 1st and 3rd quarters with the Chargers versus the Titans week 4, the Falcons versus the Panthers week 4, and the Jaguars versus the Titans week 3.
This week I like the Chargers again, versus the anemic Jaguars offense. The game spread being at +2.5, however, I'm not certain that there will be +.5 quarter lines available. I like, but don't love, the Giants versus the Cowboys.
I haven't done it yet, but if you were to play a favorite in a quarter, the only value is probably in the 2nd quarter, where the fav. could be deep in the dog's territory when the quarter starts, or kick a last second field goal before the half that covers. The fourth quarter makes no sense, as the favorite could be coasting the whole quarter with a big lead. Just look at how the 49ers outscored the Rams 14-0 in the fourth last week!
I'm sure this analysis is nothing new under the sun, the -140 vig reflects that, but a winner loses no juice, no matter how potent the juice is. I'd be interested to see some stats for the last years on these trends.
Good luck all,
The Cruncher :howdy:
I've been using some basic reasoning to bet on quarters and have gone 6 for 6 the last 2 weeks.
To start, I look for dogs that are playing against teams without particularly potent offenses. I then see if these dogs have either a. some scoring ability or b. a good defense.
When I find a matchup that fits this criterion, I'll bet the underdog at +.5 for the 1st and 3rd quarters. In one of these quarters, the dog will start with the ball, and in the other, the favorite will start, barring a big return, near their own 20. All the dog has to do is at least push the favorite for the quarter and they cover. The favorite can be at the dog's 1 yard line when the quarter expires and you still get the cover. There's no rush to score before the 1st and 3rd quarters end, unlike the 2nd and 4th. The juice on these quarters has ranged from -120 to -146.
The 6 for 6 I've hit has been 1st and 3rd quarters with the Chargers versus the Titans week 4, the Falcons versus the Panthers week 4, and the Jaguars versus the Titans week 3.
This week I like the Chargers again, versus the anemic Jaguars offense. The game spread being at +2.5, however, I'm not certain that there will be +.5 quarter lines available. I like, but don't love, the Giants versus the Cowboys.
I haven't done it yet, but if you were to play a favorite in a quarter, the only value is probably in the 2nd quarter, where the fav. could be deep in the dog's territory when the quarter starts, or kick a last second field goal before the half that covers. The fourth quarter makes no sense, as the favorite could be coasting the whole quarter with a big lead. Just look at how the 49ers outscored the Rams 14-0 in the fourth last week!
I'm sure this analysis is nothing new under the sun, the -140 vig reflects that, but a winner loses no juice, no matter how potent the juice is. I'd be interested to see some stats for the last years on these trends.
Good luck all,
The Cruncher :howdy:
