Hey guys, kind of new to this forum but have a lot of experience capping the NBA. I base my picks on key stats that I have found to be most significant when capping games, and also on the way Vegas moves lines/totals in correlation to the public's betting percentage. I wager the same amount on each game, and have gone 33-21 with the NBA this year. I hope you can profit off my picks so starting today, I will be posting plays with analysis each day! And I am not here to say that these picks are guarantees or that I can hit 70% because anybody who says that is lying. A winning percentage between 57-60% is a reasonable and obtainable goal for me and will make anybody very profitable with smart money management. I only focus on high-percentage plays so expect anywhere between 2-4 plays per day.
Good luke and here we go!
Hey guys, kind of new to this forum but have a lot of experience capping the NBA. I base my picks on key stats that I have found to be most significant when capping games, and also on the way Vegas moves lines/totals in correlation to the public's betting percentage. I wager the same amount on each game, and have gone 33-21 (60.3%) with the NBA this year. I hope you can profit off my picks so starting today, I will be posting plays with analysis each day! And I am not here to say that these picks are "guarantees" or that I can hit 70% because anybody who says that is lying. A winning percentage between 57-60% is a reasonable and obtainable goal for me and will make anybody very profitable with smart money management. I only focus on high-percentage plays so expect anywhere between 2-4 plays per day.
Good luck and here we go!
TODAY'S PLAYS:
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS @ NEW JERSEY NETS:
Maybe I am the only one in the world with the balls to play on the Bobcats but this seems like a solid play. 70%+ are on the Nets right now and the line has stood still at 8.5 the entire day. Vegas clearly knows something here because they want more action on the Nets. Yes, the Nets got their asses kicked in the last 2 against the Bucks/Raptors but I expect this game to be reasonably close. The Bobcats have covered 5 of their past 6 games and are finally getting used to life with Okafor back in the lineup. As for the Nets, take a look at their rebounding numbers in their past 2: 35-45, 43-48. The Nets are having trouble on the boards and both were against small teams (Raptors/Bucks). Charlotte is outrebounding opponents 43-41 over their past 5. I personally think people exaggerate the fact that this is a "must-win" for the Nets. Do I hear the players talking about this game as a must-win? All I hear is complaining and whining about their offence. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS following a 10-19 PT loss on the road. The Bobcats hang around in this one.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +8.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ INDIANA PACERS:
The power numbers for both teams averaged out is about 188 yet the total sits at 186. Also consider that 65% are on the over yet the total has stood still and leaning more towards the under with the odds at Pinnacle. Under is 5-1 in IND last 6 at home while the Pacers are 10-17 as an over-under at home. The Pacers are shooting 40% and giving up just 39% over their past 5. Cavaliers are 2-6 and Pacers are 4-11 as an over-under when the total is between 185-189.5.
UNDER 186
I am also considering the Cavaliers as a lean at +2 but not a pick because it doesn't look like enough of the public is on the Pacers (58%). If it goes above 62-63%, I will pull the trigger and let you know.
DETROIT PISTONS @ LA LAKERS:
And now for the money pick. Well, all my picks are "money" picks but this one stands out because it has been very publicized in the forums. Again, dogs in the NBA have so much more value than the favourites because people simply love them. If you just look at the board tonight, the majority of the public is on the favourites in 8 of the 9! The public loves the favourites even though both sides technically have a 50/50 chance of winning. So in order to compensate for the opinions of Joe Public, Vegas can make the favourite lines larger because they know most of the public will bet heavy on the favourite anyways, regardless if the line is -4 or -5, for example. Just reading some of the quotes from the Pistons in the preview today, I noticed this team is booming with confidence and it is almost getting to the point where they are getting cocky about it. "When it comes down to it, we'll smack 'em in the mouth with the trophy again." -Rasheed Wallace. The Pistons will eventually lose a game and I think tonight is a good chance that this happens. I have found that teams that are hot, do not stay hot and when it reaches a point where the team is extremely cocky and arrogant, it is a good time to pounce on the other side. Kobe has been in court almost the entire day. Some may view this as a negative effect because of the fatigue factor of being in court all day, but the last time he was in court and had to play the same night, he lit it up. I expect more of the same tonight. Kobe has not let down at all this year and I think the boos/court stuff fuels him. The Pistons are still only 13-12 on the road while the Lakers are 19-10 at home. And what I like the most about this pick is the fact that 76% of the public is on the Pistons yet the line is hovering around 3, exactly where it opened. I consider the Vegas oddsmakers the most intelligent and knowledgeable people in the sports betting business and they "trick" people into betting on the wrong side. I have seen it time and time again. Play the Lakers
LA LAKERS +3
Good luke and here we go!
Hey guys, kind of new to this forum but have a lot of experience capping the NBA. I base my picks on key stats that I have found to be most significant when capping games, and also on the way Vegas moves lines/totals in correlation to the public's betting percentage. I wager the same amount on each game, and have gone 33-21 (60.3%) with the NBA this year. I hope you can profit off my picks so starting today, I will be posting plays with analysis each day! And I am not here to say that these picks are "guarantees" or that I can hit 70% because anybody who says that is lying. A winning percentage between 57-60% is a reasonable and obtainable goal for me and will make anybody very profitable with smart money management. I only focus on high-percentage plays so expect anywhere between 2-4 plays per day.
Good luck and here we go!
TODAY'S PLAYS:
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS @ NEW JERSEY NETS:
Maybe I am the only one in the world with the balls to play on the Bobcats but this seems like a solid play. 70%+ are on the Nets right now and the line has stood still at 8.5 the entire day. Vegas clearly knows something here because they want more action on the Nets. Yes, the Nets got their asses kicked in the last 2 against the Bucks/Raptors but I expect this game to be reasonably close. The Bobcats have covered 5 of their past 6 games and are finally getting used to life with Okafor back in the lineup. As for the Nets, take a look at their rebounding numbers in their past 2: 35-45, 43-48. The Nets are having trouble on the boards and both were against small teams (Raptors/Bucks). Charlotte is outrebounding opponents 43-41 over their past 5. I personally think people exaggerate the fact that this is a "must-win" for the Nets. Do I hear the players talking about this game as a must-win? All I hear is complaining and whining about their offence. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS following a 10-19 PT loss on the road. The Bobcats hang around in this one.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +8.5
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS @ INDIANA PACERS:
The power numbers for both teams averaged out is about 188 yet the total sits at 186. Also consider that 65% are on the over yet the total has stood still and leaning more towards the under with the odds at Pinnacle. Under is 5-1 in IND last 6 at home while the Pacers are 10-17 as an over-under at home. The Pacers are shooting 40% and giving up just 39% over their past 5. Cavaliers are 2-6 and Pacers are 4-11 as an over-under when the total is between 185-189.5.
UNDER 186
I am also considering the Cavaliers as a lean at +2 but not a pick because it doesn't look like enough of the public is on the Pacers (58%). If it goes above 62-63%, I will pull the trigger and let you know.
DETROIT PISTONS @ LA LAKERS:
And now for the money pick. Well, all my picks are "money" picks but this one stands out because it has been very publicized in the forums. Again, dogs in the NBA have so much more value than the favourites because people simply love them. If you just look at the board tonight, the majority of the public is on the favourites in 8 of the 9! The public loves the favourites even though both sides technically have a 50/50 chance of winning. So in order to compensate for the opinions of Joe Public, Vegas can make the favourite lines larger because they know most of the public will bet heavy on the favourite anyways, regardless if the line is -4 or -5, for example. Just reading some of the quotes from the Pistons in the preview today, I noticed this team is booming with confidence and it is almost getting to the point where they are getting cocky about it. "When it comes down to it, we'll smack 'em in the mouth with the trophy again." -Rasheed Wallace. The Pistons will eventually lose a game and I think tonight is a good chance that this happens. I have found that teams that are hot, do not stay hot and when it reaches a point where the team is extremely cocky and arrogant, it is a good time to pounce on the other side. Kobe has been in court almost the entire day. Some may view this as a negative effect because of the fatigue factor of being in court all day, but the last time he was in court and had to play the same night, he lit it up. I expect more of the same tonight. Kobe has not let down at all this year and I think the boos/court stuff fuels him. The Pistons are still only 13-12 on the road while the Lakers are 19-10 at home. And what I like the most about this pick is the fact that 76% of the public is on the Pistons yet the line is hovering around 3, exactly where it opened. I consider the Vegas oddsmakers the most intelligent and knowledgeable people in the sports betting business and they "trick" people into betting on the wrong side. I have seen it time and time again. Play the Lakers
LA LAKERS +3
