I ask the same question. And if you look at this years tracking, closing lines have been more accurate to the final score than the openings.
Closing Line absolute error: 8.9692
Opening Line absolute error: 9.0808
Thanks for the analysis.
Only thing is the gross analysis will contain a lot of data points where the line movement has been negligible or very small, so may miss some useful info.
Could you run the analysis for.
1. Games that have moved more than 2pts.
2. Games that have move through/off key numbers.
3. Games where the lines show RLM, not sure if this is possible to get the data points for.
I'd be happy to run if I could get the raw data.
Thanks