Las Vegas Hilton contest picks

[quantumleap]

The Vegas Hilton holds a contest each year where people put up their hard-earned money to make picks on NFL games. I hear it's quite a bit of money ($10,000 each?) so it's not a bunch of hacks. All the picks are added and put into a table (below).

For example, 154 people in the contest picked NE to beat Cle by 7 1/2 or more. That was the most frequently picked bet. The second-most frequently picked bet was Buffalo beating Miami by 3 1/2 or more.

Last week I bet the top 5 picks and went 4-1. I think the web site has previous week's picks as well. Perhaps I'll tabulate the weekly record.

Good luck.

http://www.jimfeist.com/Contests/HiltonContest.aspx?FT=WL

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width=610 border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=navy><TD colSpan=4>Favorite</TD><TD>|</TD><TD colSpan=4>Dog</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Line</TD><TD>Team</TD><TD>Score</TD><TD>Picked</TD><TD>Rank</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>26</B></TD><TD>28</TD><TD></TD><TD>NYJ</TD><TD>6½</TD><TD>Hou</TD><TD></TD><TD>42</TD><TD>19</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>12</B></TD><TD>59</TD><TD></TD><TD>BAL</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Cin</TD><TD></TD><TD>49</TD><TD>16</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>1</TD><TD>154</TD><TD></TD><TD>Ne</TD><TD>7½</TD><TD>CLE</TD><TD></TD><TD>18</TD><TD>29</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>17</B></TD><TD>47</TD><TD></TD><TD>DET</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Arz</TD><TD></TD><TD>27</TD><TD>27</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>10</B></TD><TD>66</TD><TD></TD><TD>IND</TD><TD>11½</TD><TD>Ten</TD><TD></TD><TD>31</TD><TD>25</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>15</B></TD><TD>52</TD><TD></TD><TD>Min</TD><TD>7½</TD><TD>CHI</TD><TD></TD><TD>58</TD><TD>13</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>2</TD><TD>121</TD><TD></TD><TD>Buf</TD><TD>3½</TD><TD>MIA</TD><TD></TD><TD>43</TD><TD>18</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>6</B></TD><TD>89</TD><TD></TD><TD>TAM</TD><TD>1½</TD><TD>Atl</TD><TD></TD><TD>54</TD><TD>14</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>12</B></TD><TD>59</TD><TD></TD><TD>STL</TD><TD>10½</TD><TD>Sfo</TD><TD></TD><TD>13</TD><TD>30</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>28</B></TD><TD>21</TD><TD></TD><TD>NOR</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Car</TD><TD></TD><TD>93</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>21</B></TD><TD>38</TD><TD></TD><TD>OAK</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>Kan</TD><TD></TD><TD>34</TD><TD>24</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>5</TD><TD>92</TD><TD></TD><TD>SDG</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>Den</TD><TD></TD><TD>77</TD><TD>8</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>11</B></TD><TD>62</TD><TD></TD><TD>WAS</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>Nyg</TD><TD></TD><TD>35</TD><TD>23</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>17</B></TD><TD>47</TD><TD></TD><TD>PHI</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>Grb</TD><TD></TD><TD>76</TD><TD>9</B></TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=lavender><TD>7</B></TD><TD>84</TD><TD></TD><TD>Pit</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>JAX</TD><TD></TD><TD>103</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD>22</B></TD><TD>37</TD><TD></TD><TD>SEA</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>Dal</TD><TD></TD><TD>41</TD><TD>20</B></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[quantumleap]

Here is the weekly record of the top 5 picks:

Week 1: 4-1
Week 2: 1-4
Week 3: 3-2
Week 4: 3-2
Week 5: 3-2
Week 6: 2-3
Week 7: 2-3
Week 8: 3-2
Week 9: 3-2
Week 10: 0-5
Week 11: 5-0
Week 12: 4-1

 

[ShedClub]

THanks for the good Info ... this is definately an asset to the forum!!!
SHED

 

[TomKing]

The fee is $1,500 to get in and the top 20 get paid this year's contest drew right about 384 sing-ups.

 

[quantumleap]

Glad you like it Shed. Keep in mind that a couple weeks ago the top 5 picks went 0-5. However I believe these people will have a better idea in the later weeks as they have gone 9-1 for the top 5 picks the last 2 weeks. Overall the top 5 picks are 36-24 (60%). Feel free to bet the top 10, etc.

Thanks for the info Tom.

Thanks to wilheim for giving me the link.

I think I'll continue to post this information weekly.

 

[Schouest]

Not sure where you got that number..

We have 410 this year in the contest..Biggest field ever !!

And be careful of NE...
Most folks took em for line value..

The contest had em at 7.5 as the Hilton puts the spreads out early...

By gametime it may be 11.5/12 ....

The other top plays look OK..but be leary of NE !!

 

[Schouest]

....and the payouts are SWEET ass SWEET..
Check these out for a $1500 investment !!

11th-20th pays $6165.00
5th-10th $21577.50
4th $30,825.00
3rd $49,320.00
2nd $98,640.00
1st $246,000.00

 

[quantumleap]

Excellent point on the line movement Schouest. I believe these picks are published late Friday each week so it's a good possibility the line has moved. Never follow a bet blindly.

 

[quantumleap]

Another thing I think needs to be pointed out here is the discrepancy between picks. For example, Jax was the 3rd most popular pick but Pitt was the 7th most popular pick. This tells me that neither can be favored by a lot even though a lot of people picked that particular team because they have a lot of people on either side.

I put this info into a spreadsheet and did a difference of opposing teams' rankings. One example would be Carolina/NOR. Carolina was ranked 4th while NOR was ranked 28th, a difference of 24. This would lead me to believe that Carolina was more of a favorite than Jax.

My picks for this week's games based upon differential (throwing out the differential of 28 for NE because of the line change)-

Carolina pk over NOR (24 ranking differential)
StL -11 over SFO (18 ranking differential)
Buffalo -4 over Mia (16 ranking differential)
Ind -12 over Ten (15 ranking differential)
Skins -2.5 over NYG (12 ranking differential)

 

[Jarbo]

Nice info. Keep up the good work!



Luck

 

[redrocket]

Why have you not included TB?

 

[butt-kiss]

Good Discussion...This is my third year in the Hilton Contest. Remember the lines are released on Tuesday evening and must be submitted by 1:00 pm on Fridays. Only 4 game lines (of 16) from the Hilton Contest this week remain the same. ...SD, Seattle,Pitt., and Detroit.... 1/2 point differences on up in the other twelve games. So comparing picks without line changes lacks some correlation. So if one blindly picks ie: the top five consensus selections, you are most likely betting into a different spread. On the flip side, going against the botton five choices has been profitable in the first 12 weeks, as well. Schouest is that last years payoffs you listed above?

 

[quantumleap]

bk:

I was thinking about fading the bottom picks as well. You have a good analytical mind. Perhaps I can come up with a list of the records of fading the bottom 5.

Another good point you make is to take into consideration the line changes. My table of weekly results does not factor that in. Making intelligent bets can never be done by following a formula or table. It has to take other pertinent information into consideration.

 

[quantumleap]

Top 5 Hilton picks went 4-0-1 even with the line changes. SD/Den was the push.
My picks went 4-1 with STL being the only loser.
Fading the bottom 5 picks went 4-1 with SF being the only bottom-5 team to cover.

See you next week.