Football Live Lines Betting Premium Picks for October 25, 2003
Saturday`s Selections
NCAA Football
5 Units on Minnesota U -15 -110
MINNESOTA (6-2 SU/5-2-1 ATS) at ILLINOIS (1-7 SU/1-6 ATS) Minnesota dropped their second straight game last week as they fell to Michigan State in a 44-38 home loss as -7 point favorites. QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq threw for 377 yards on 27-of-40 passing with four touchdowns, but had a costly fumble for Minnesota, which couldn't rebound after losing a heartbreaking 38-35 game to Michigan the previous week. The Gophers gave up 31 fourth quarter points in that loss. Minnesota lost despite holding edges in total "O" (525-413) and first downs (29-23). Illinois is coming off a 56-14 loss at Michigan last week as +27 point road underdogs. Illinois, which has lost six in a row, played without starting quarterback Jon Beutjer, who has been bothered by persistent back pain for the past couple of weeks. He is also expected to miss this week's game. Chris Pazan filled in and was 11-of-23 for 100 yards and an interception for Illinois, while Mark Kornfeld had five receptions for 77 yards. The Fightin' Illini were totally outplayed in the game with deficits in total "O" (519-252), first downs (30-13) and rushing yards (275-89). Minny is 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings with Illinois, but are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS the last 8 meetings in Champaign. The Gophers won last years meeting 31-10 as -3½ point chalks.
5 Units on South Carolina -16½ -110
VANDERBILT (1-7 SU/2-4-1 ATS) at SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3 SU/3-4 ATS) Vandy is off a 27-8 home loss to 4th-ranked Georgia last week, but covered as +26½ point underdogs. QB Jay Cutler completed 10-of-17 passes for 86 yards with a touchdown and one interception for the Commodores. Cutler also ran for 64 yards on 15 attempts and Norval McKenzie added 34 yards on 15 carries. Matthew Tant caught two balls for 35 yards and a score, as Vanderbilt lost its sixth straight game. Vandy actually led at halftime 2-0, but got outscored 27-6 in the second half. The 'Dores were outgained in total "O" 343-218. Vandy has yet to beat a Division I-A team in 2003, with its lone victory coming against I-AA Chattanooga. The Gamecocks did not look good last week in a 33-7 home loss to LSU as +5 point underdogs. QB Dondrial Pinkins completed 15-of-32 attempts for 254 yards and a touchdown pass for the Gamecocks, who fell 4-3 on the season. It was a poor showing for SC as they had deficits in total "O" (486-272), first downs (29-10) and time of possession ( 41:43 to 18:17). Vanderbilt is 2-9 SU and ATS the last 11 meetings with SC and 0-5 ATS the last five visits to Columbia and come in 3-10-1 ATS the week before a bye. SC is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 homecoming games and won last years meeting 20-14 as -9 point road chalks.
3 Units on Texas Tech -3½ -110
TEXAS TECH (5-2 SU/6-1 ATS) at MISSOURI (5-2 SU/4-2 ATS) The Red Raiders are off a wild 51-49 loss at Oklahoma State last week, but covered as +5 point underdogs. QB B.J. Symons had another great game, throwing for 552 yards and five touchdowns on 42-of-67 passing. He was picked off twice. Wes Welker and Nehemiah Glover each had a pair of TD receptions in the loss for the Red Raiders, who had a three-game winning streak snapped. Tech was outgained in total "O" by a slight margin (673-661) but held a 38-29 edge in first downs. Tech trailed 48-21 heading into the 4th quarter, but outscored the Cowboys 28-3 to get the cover. Mizzou comes in off a 34-13 loss at Oklahoma last week, but covered as +26½ point underdogs. QB Brad Smith went 15-of-31 for 180 yards with an interception for the Tigers, who were coming off a 41-24 upset win over Nebraska the previous week. Smith also carried the ball 14 times for 50 yards with a touchdown. Missouri didn't stand much of a chance at the outright win as they had deficits in total "O" (424-266), first downs (20-14) and return yards (121-24). The home team in this series is 3-1 SU and ATS. Mizzou comes in 6-3 ATS in the first game of back-to-back home games. Tech won last years meeting 52-38 as -6½ point home favorites.
3 Units on Clemson -14 -110
NORTH CAROLINA (1-6 SU/5-2 ATS) at CLEMSON (4-3 SU/4-2 ATS) North Carolina hung tough last week in a 33-31 home loss to Arizona State as +7 point underdogs. QB Darian Durant was 13-of-23 passing for 167 yards with one touchdown in the loss. Jarwarski Pollock was the leading receiver for North Carolina with four catches for 98 yards. Despite the close score, Arizona State dominated Carolina with edges in total "O" (603-320) and first downs (29-18). Clemson is off a tough 17-15 road loss at NC State last Thursday Night as +5 point underdogs. QB Charlie Whitehurst completed 23-of-37 passes for 196 yards and an interception. WR Kevin Youngblood caught five balls for 47 yards, while RB Duane Coleman led the ground attack with 51 yards on 11 carries. Clemson outgained NC State in total "O" 323-283 and held a 127-70 edge in rushing. Offensively, North Carolina comes in ranked 60th in the nation, averaging 377 ypg, while Clemson ranks 55th, with a 383 ypg average. On defense, it's a different story though, as the Tar Heels rank almost dead last in the nation (116th), allowing 498 ypg, while the Clemson "D" has been solid, ranking 22nd in the nation with a 322 ypg average. North Carolina won't be able to run the ball on that Clemson "D”, which allowed 45, 53, and 70 yards rushing to Georgia Tech, Virginia and NC State, respectively. The favorite in this series is an impressive 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 meetings and the SU winner is 15-2-1 ATS as well. Clemson is just 2-5 ATS the last seven meetings, but won last year 42-12 as -10 point road chalks. Cannot recommend anything but Clemson in this one. Lay the points.
3 Units on Tennessee U -3½ -110
TENNESSEE (4-2 SU/1-5 ATS) at ALABAMA (3-5 SU/3-5 ATS) The reeling Vols had a much needed bye last week after getting embarrassed at home two weeks ago in a 41-14 loss to 5th-ranked Georgia as +1½ point dogs. QB Casey Clausen finished just 11-of-23 passing for 165 yards and touchdown with two costly third-quarter interceptions for the Volunteers, who suffered their worst home loss since a 31-0 setback to Florida in 1994. The Vols were trailing 13-7 with less than a minute to go in the first half and were in a position to score on the Georgia one-yard line. However, Tennessee fumbled and Georgia's Sean Jones returned it for a TD that seemed to break Tennessee's back. It was a poor effort by the Vols, who were outgained in total "O" (414-248) and had deficits in first downs (19-15) and time of possession (36:19 to 23:41). Alabama continued to struggle last week in a 43-28 loss at Mississippi as +3 point underdogs. QB Brodie Croyle threw 248 yards on 21-of-29 passing for Alabama, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Shaud Williams added two scores and 63 rushing yards in the loss, which was the fourth in five outings for the Crimson Tide. Alabama had deficits in total "O" (446-364) and rushing yards (216-116). Tennessee is 7-3-1 SU and 7-4 ATS the last 11 meetings with the Tide and are playing with revenge after last years 34-14 home loss to Alabama as -2 point favorites. Alabama counters with an 8-4 ATS mark the week before a bye.
5 Units on Nebraska -23½ -110
IOWA STATE (2-5 SU/1-5 ATS) at NEBRASKA (6-1 SU/4-3 ATS) The Cyclones continued to reel last week in a 40-21 home loss to Texas as +19 point underdogs. QB Cris Love was 6-for-16 for 49 yards for the Iowa State, who lost their fifth straight matchup against the Longhorns. Their other QB Austin Flynn connected on 5-of-18 passes for 123 yards and a score, and also ran for 43 yards and two two-point conversions, as Iowa State lost their fifth straight game. The Cyclones were dominated in the game with deficits in total "O" (578-277), first downs (28-16) and time of possession (37:26 to 22:34). 11th-ranked Nebraska bounced back from their loss at Missouri two weeks ago with a resounding 48-12 home win over Texas A&M as -10 point chalks. QB Jammal Lord rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns and David Horne and Josh Davis each added a rushing touchdown for the Cornhuskers, who were off a 41-24 loss at Missouri. Nebraska held edges in total "O" (384-244), first downs (21-15) and time of possession (33:59 to 26:01). Iowa State comes in ranked 78th in the nation in total "O" with a 351 ypg average, while Nebraska ranks 69th (363 ypg). But that shouldn't matter much because this game will be decided by the defenses. Iowa State ranks a paltry 108th in the land in total "D", yielding 458 ypg, while Nebraska sports the nation's 2nd ranked stop unit, allowing just 255 ypg. Nebraska also ranks number-one in the nation in turnover margin. Iowa State has not fared well against Nebraska, going 2-13 SU and 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Iowa State has been outscored 170-14 in the first half alone in the last four visits to Lincoln. The home team in this series is 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings and the 'Huskers are playing with revenge after last years 36-14 loss at Iowa State as +1 point dogs, the first loss to the Cyclones since 1992. Nebraska, with revenge, should roll in this one. Lay the points.
5 Units on TCU -6 -110
TCU (7-0 SU/2-5 ATS) at HOUSTON (5-2 SU/4-2-1 ATS) The 13th-ranke3d Horned Frogs survived a scare last week in a 27-24 home win over UAB as -12 point favorites. QB Tye Gunn threw for just 136 yards on 14-of-26 passing with an interception for TCU, while RB Lonta Hobbs ran for a pair of touchdowns and RB Robert Merrill rushed for 85 yards on 16 carries for the Horned Frogs, whose eight-game winning streak dating back to last season ties them with Miami-Florida for the longest active streak in the nation. TCU outgained UAB in total "O" 405-393 and had edges in first downs (23-14) and time of possession (34:38 to 25:22). Houston was shell-shocked last week in a 45-14 home loss to Memphis as -4 point favorites. The quarterback combination of Kevin Kolb and Blade Bassler completed 16-of-28 for 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Kolb was sacked three times and intercepted once in the setback for Houston, which had its four-game win streak broken. Houston was down 45-0 at one point and had deficits in total "O" (487-323), first downs (25-19) and time of possession (31:19 to 28:41). TCU is 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 14 meetings with Houston and are 7-1 ATS the last eight trips to Houston. TCU won last years meeting 34-17 as -10½ point home favorites.
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[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on October 25, 2003 at 09:54 AM.]
Saturday`s Selections
NCAA Football
5 Units on Minnesota U -15 -110
MINNESOTA (6-2 SU/5-2-1 ATS) at ILLINOIS (1-7 SU/1-6 ATS) Minnesota dropped their second straight game last week as they fell to Michigan State in a 44-38 home loss as -7 point favorites. QB Asad Abdul-Khaliq threw for 377 yards on 27-of-40 passing with four touchdowns, but had a costly fumble for Minnesota, which couldn't rebound after losing a heartbreaking 38-35 game to Michigan the previous week. The Gophers gave up 31 fourth quarter points in that loss. Minnesota lost despite holding edges in total "O" (525-413) and first downs (29-23). Illinois is coming off a 56-14 loss at Michigan last week as +27 point road underdogs. Illinois, which has lost six in a row, played without starting quarterback Jon Beutjer, who has been bothered by persistent back pain for the past couple of weeks. He is also expected to miss this week's game. Chris Pazan filled in and was 11-of-23 for 100 yards and an interception for Illinois, while Mark Kornfeld had five receptions for 77 yards. The Fightin' Illini were totally outplayed in the game with deficits in total "O" (519-252), first downs (30-13) and rushing yards (275-89). Minny is 6-3 ATS the last nine meetings with Illinois, but are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS the last 8 meetings in Champaign. The Gophers won last years meeting 31-10 as -3½ point chalks.
5 Units on South Carolina -16½ -110
VANDERBILT (1-7 SU/2-4-1 ATS) at SOUTH CAROLINA (4-3 SU/3-4 ATS) Vandy is off a 27-8 home loss to 4th-ranked Georgia last week, but covered as +26½ point underdogs. QB Jay Cutler completed 10-of-17 passes for 86 yards with a touchdown and one interception for the Commodores. Cutler also ran for 64 yards on 15 attempts and Norval McKenzie added 34 yards on 15 carries. Matthew Tant caught two balls for 35 yards and a score, as Vanderbilt lost its sixth straight game. Vandy actually led at halftime 2-0, but got outscored 27-6 in the second half. The 'Dores were outgained in total "O" 343-218. Vandy has yet to beat a Division I-A team in 2003, with its lone victory coming against I-AA Chattanooga. The Gamecocks did not look good last week in a 33-7 home loss to LSU as +5 point underdogs. QB Dondrial Pinkins completed 15-of-32 attempts for 254 yards and a touchdown pass for the Gamecocks, who fell 4-3 on the season. It was a poor showing for SC as they had deficits in total "O" (486-272), first downs (29-10) and time of possession ( 41:43 to 18:17). Vanderbilt is 2-9 SU and ATS the last 11 meetings with SC and 0-5 ATS the last five visits to Columbia and come in 3-10-1 ATS the week before a bye. SC is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 homecoming games and won last years meeting 20-14 as -9 point road chalks.
3 Units on Texas Tech -3½ -110
TEXAS TECH (5-2 SU/6-1 ATS) at MISSOURI (5-2 SU/4-2 ATS) The Red Raiders are off a wild 51-49 loss at Oklahoma State last week, but covered as +5 point underdogs. QB B.J. Symons had another great game, throwing for 552 yards and five touchdowns on 42-of-67 passing. He was picked off twice. Wes Welker and Nehemiah Glover each had a pair of TD receptions in the loss for the Red Raiders, who had a three-game winning streak snapped. Tech was outgained in total "O" by a slight margin (673-661) but held a 38-29 edge in first downs. Tech trailed 48-21 heading into the 4th quarter, but outscored the Cowboys 28-3 to get the cover. Mizzou comes in off a 34-13 loss at Oklahoma last week, but covered as +26½ point underdogs. QB Brad Smith went 15-of-31 for 180 yards with an interception for the Tigers, who were coming off a 41-24 upset win over Nebraska the previous week. Smith also carried the ball 14 times for 50 yards with a touchdown. Missouri didn't stand much of a chance at the outright win as they had deficits in total "O" (424-266), first downs (20-14) and return yards (121-24). The home team in this series is 3-1 SU and ATS. Mizzou comes in 6-3 ATS in the first game of back-to-back home games. Tech won last years meeting 52-38 as -6½ point home favorites.
3 Units on Clemson -14 -110
NORTH CAROLINA (1-6 SU/5-2 ATS) at CLEMSON (4-3 SU/4-2 ATS) North Carolina hung tough last week in a 33-31 home loss to Arizona State as +7 point underdogs. QB Darian Durant was 13-of-23 passing for 167 yards with one touchdown in the loss. Jarwarski Pollock was the leading receiver for North Carolina with four catches for 98 yards. Despite the close score, Arizona State dominated Carolina with edges in total "O" (603-320) and first downs (29-18). Clemson is off a tough 17-15 road loss at NC State last Thursday Night as +5 point underdogs. QB Charlie Whitehurst completed 23-of-37 passes for 196 yards and an interception. WR Kevin Youngblood caught five balls for 47 yards, while RB Duane Coleman led the ground attack with 51 yards on 11 carries. Clemson outgained NC State in total "O" 323-283 and held a 127-70 edge in rushing. Offensively, North Carolina comes in ranked 60th in the nation, averaging 377 ypg, while Clemson ranks 55th, with a 383 ypg average. On defense, it's a different story though, as the Tar Heels rank almost dead last in the nation (116th), allowing 498 ypg, while the Clemson "D" has been solid, ranking 22nd in the nation with a 322 ypg average. North Carolina won't be able to run the ball on that Clemson "D”, which allowed 45, 53, and 70 yards rushing to Georgia Tech, Virginia and NC State, respectively. The favorite in this series is an impressive 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 meetings and the SU winner is 15-2-1 ATS as well. Clemson is just 2-5 ATS the last seven meetings, but won last year 42-12 as -10 point road chalks. Cannot recommend anything but Clemson in this one. Lay the points.
3 Units on Tennessee U -3½ -110
TENNESSEE (4-2 SU/1-5 ATS) at ALABAMA (3-5 SU/3-5 ATS) The reeling Vols had a much needed bye last week after getting embarrassed at home two weeks ago in a 41-14 loss to 5th-ranked Georgia as +1½ point dogs. QB Casey Clausen finished just 11-of-23 passing for 165 yards and touchdown with two costly third-quarter interceptions for the Volunteers, who suffered their worst home loss since a 31-0 setback to Florida in 1994. The Vols were trailing 13-7 with less than a minute to go in the first half and were in a position to score on the Georgia one-yard line. However, Tennessee fumbled and Georgia's Sean Jones returned it for a TD that seemed to break Tennessee's back. It was a poor effort by the Vols, who were outgained in total "O" (414-248) and had deficits in first downs (19-15) and time of possession (36:19 to 23:41). Alabama continued to struggle last week in a 43-28 loss at Mississippi as +3 point underdogs. QB Brodie Croyle threw 248 yards on 21-of-29 passing for Alabama, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Shaud Williams added two scores and 63 rushing yards in the loss, which was the fourth in five outings for the Crimson Tide. Alabama had deficits in total "O" (446-364) and rushing yards (216-116). Tennessee is 7-3-1 SU and 7-4 ATS the last 11 meetings with the Tide and are playing with revenge after last years 34-14 home loss to Alabama as -2 point favorites. Alabama counters with an 8-4 ATS mark the week before a bye.
5 Units on Nebraska -23½ -110
IOWA STATE (2-5 SU/1-5 ATS) at NEBRASKA (6-1 SU/4-3 ATS) The Cyclones continued to reel last week in a 40-21 home loss to Texas as +19 point underdogs. QB Cris Love was 6-for-16 for 49 yards for the Iowa State, who lost their fifth straight matchup against the Longhorns. Their other QB Austin Flynn connected on 5-of-18 passes for 123 yards and a score, and also ran for 43 yards and two two-point conversions, as Iowa State lost their fifth straight game. The Cyclones were dominated in the game with deficits in total "O" (578-277), first downs (28-16) and time of possession (37:26 to 22:34). 11th-ranked Nebraska bounced back from their loss at Missouri two weeks ago with a resounding 48-12 home win over Texas A&M as -10 point chalks. QB Jammal Lord rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns and David Horne and Josh Davis each added a rushing touchdown for the Cornhuskers, who were off a 41-24 loss at Missouri. Nebraska held edges in total "O" (384-244), first downs (21-15) and time of possession (33:59 to 26:01). Iowa State comes in ranked 78th in the nation in total "O" with a 351 ypg average, while Nebraska ranks 69th (363 ypg). But that shouldn't matter much because this game will be decided by the defenses. Iowa State ranks a paltry 108th in the land in total "D", yielding 458 ypg, while Nebraska sports the nation's 2nd ranked stop unit, allowing just 255 ypg. Nebraska also ranks number-one in the nation in turnover margin. Iowa State has not fared well against Nebraska, going 2-13 SU and 5-9-1 ATS the last 15 meetings. Iowa State has been outscored 170-14 in the first half alone in the last four visits to Lincoln. The home team in this series is 9-2 ATS the last 11 meetings and the 'Huskers are playing with revenge after last years 36-14 loss at Iowa State as +1 point dogs, the first loss to the Cyclones since 1992. Nebraska, with revenge, should roll in this one. Lay the points.
5 Units on TCU -6 -110
TCU (7-0 SU/2-5 ATS) at HOUSTON (5-2 SU/4-2-1 ATS) The 13th-ranke3d Horned Frogs survived a scare last week in a 27-24 home win over UAB as -12 point favorites. QB Tye Gunn threw for just 136 yards on 14-of-26 passing with an interception for TCU, while RB Lonta Hobbs ran for a pair of touchdowns and RB Robert Merrill rushed for 85 yards on 16 carries for the Horned Frogs, whose eight-game winning streak dating back to last season ties them with Miami-Florida for the longest active streak in the nation. TCU outgained UAB in total "O" 405-393 and had edges in first downs (23-14) and time of possession (34:38 to 25:22). Houston was shell-shocked last week in a 45-14 home loss to Memphis as -4 point favorites. The quarterback combination of Kevin Kolb and Blade Bassler completed 16-of-28 for 163 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Kolb was sacked three times and intercepted once in the setback for Houston, which had its four-game win streak broken. Houston was down 45-0 at one point and had deficits in total "O" (487-323), first downs (25-19) and time of possession (31:19 to 28:41). TCU is 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 14 meetings with Houston and are 7-1 ATS the last eight trips to Houston. TCU won last years meeting 34-17 as -10½ point home favorites.
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[This message was edited by Patrick McIrish on October 25, 2003 at 09:54 AM.]
