Event: Novak Djokovic - Rafael Nadal
29.01.2012 09:30 CET
Sport: Tennis
Tournament: Australian Open
H2H
Rafael Nadal leads 16:13
Novak Djokovic leads 10:4 on Hard
Novak Djokovic Won last 6 in a row
(Lastest: US Open 2011 Final 6:2 6:4 6:7 6:1)
Analysis: Novak Djokovic, world number 1 and player to beat on this Australian Open reached the final by losing thee overall sets, he defeated in straight sets Lorenzi, Giraldo, Mahut and Ferrer, in 4 Hewitt and in an epic 5 sets match two days ago Andy Murray where Nole won 7:5 but where he was down 2:1 sets and as well on the final set saved 3 massive break points at 5 all (15:40 down and 40:ad) closing the match finally the game later.
Novak was the absolut dominator of the last season winning 10 titles out of 11 finals with an incredible records as 70:6 WL, as well in 2010 he was a top player being runner up at US Open defeated by Nadal, but his keys for so big change were to perform physically better and working on his forehand, he did and right now he is a complete player with a great service, two big strokes and a great physical condition although sometimes there's some rumors about his shape as happened as well on this Australian Open.
Rafal Nadal instead got into this Australian Open Final by losing only two sets, defeating in straight Kuznetsov, Haas, Lacko and Lopez, losing a set to Berdych and Roger Federer where he was a set and break down.
Rafael Nadal last season suffered Djokovic's domination, in fact he lost 6 times on 6 against the Serb and for that the mental frustration is becoming bigger and bigger, almost the same as Federer got against him.
Rafa got to this Australian Open with a lot of doubts about his physical shape, he decleared in a lot of interviews to not to be at the best of his shape, he lost as well in Doha very easily to Monfils but apparently he got the shape match by match, improving on each one and playing absolutely a superb semifinal against RF, so solid on the baseline running on whichever ball, making his game with the forehand and very few unforced errors, just in style.
So similar condition there were as well during the last US Open Final, because on last september Djokovic beated on the semifinal Roger Federer by saving two match points 7:5 on the final set, same result as he got against Andy Murray here and he finished as this time very tired and as well on that tournament getting some physical problems that he paid in some way on the final where he called twice medical time out, the only differences we might say is that time Nadal didn't had a day off more then Djokovic as it is happening here at the Australian Open and as well the surface in our opinion helps Nadal here in Melbourne, because the bounces at the US Open are higher (Nadal pays that a lot on the backhand) and the surface is decidedly faster regarding here in Melbourne.
Of course right now Novak Djokovic is a better player then Nadal on hard surface, because he serves better and he plays more offensively having the chance to make the winner with both strokes and as well mentally looking the last head to head looks another big key for Novak and for that in a normal condition match he would have been the biggest favourite and let's say that if this match would have been played just three days ago, just before the semifinals, the odds would say at least 1.45-1.50 on Djokovic and 3.00-3.20 on Nadal.
We believe as most of the people for sure that if Djokovic had a good rest, had not any physical problem as he partly showed against Ferrer (The Serb spoke about some stomach problem) or is still not too tired after the big match against Murray, would be surely the biggest favourite of this match and 1.70 would be decidedly too much, but in case the things would not work on this way and Djokovic would not be 100% fit and ready for this, then on a long match Nadal would have a lot of chances more, because he is a fighter, he doesn't give almost no free points and then for that would be very very difficult for the Serb and on this situation the 2.40 for Nadal would be as well too much.
It's really too tough to analyze this match and all those situation, it's everything too doubtful for a normal analysis based on a simply knowledge and moreover you know the goal of betting is to find a value, everyone knows about those players, this match and all what is happening right now, then it's almost impossible that a bookmaker would mistake a market like this.
Finally we really believe that on some way the odds are showing the real truth of this match, of course according to all the analysis if you wanna kill yourself on some way you should go with the price cause +140 on a long run playing always this kind of match in our opinion would give you a better payback then what that 1.70 shows for Djokovic, but you know tomorrow will start few upcoming tournaments and for sure on the first rounds there will be more chances to find a real good value then what there really are on this match.
Sometimes the real biggest bet, is no bet, you gonna winning anyway doing this on Djokovic v Nadal, Australian Open 2012 Final.
So, If you are based in Australia, spend a good dinner watching the match, if you are based in Europe spend a good breakfast watching the match, if you are based on the US or South America take some cofee and biscuits(Beer for the younger ones) with you watching the match and if you are based in Asia we wish you a good afternoon, but please stay without any bet, at least if you got confidence on US... otherwise Good Luck, needed on this match...
Adiós
La12
29.01.2012 09:30 CET
Sport: Tennis
Tournament: Australian Open
H2H
Rafael Nadal leads 16:13
Novak Djokovic leads 10:4 on Hard
Novak Djokovic Won last 6 in a row
(Lastest: US Open 2011 Final 6:2 6:4 6:7 6:1)
Analysis: Novak Djokovic, world number 1 and player to beat on this Australian Open reached the final by losing thee overall sets, he defeated in straight sets Lorenzi, Giraldo, Mahut and Ferrer, in 4 Hewitt and in an epic 5 sets match two days ago Andy Murray where Nole won 7:5 but where he was down 2:1 sets and as well on the final set saved 3 massive break points at 5 all (15:40 down and 40:ad) closing the match finally the game later.
Novak was the absolut dominator of the last season winning 10 titles out of 11 finals with an incredible records as 70:6 WL, as well in 2010 he was a top player being runner up at US Open defeated by Nadal, but his keys for so big change were to perform physically better and working on his forehand, he did and right now he is a complete player with a great service, two big strokes and a great physical condition although sometimes there's some rumors about his shape as happened as well on this Australian Open.
Rafal Nadal instead got into this Australian Open Final by losing only two sets, defeating in straight Kuznetsov, Haas, Lacko and Lopez, losing a set to Berdych and Roger Federer where he was a set and break down.
Rafael Nadal last season suffered Djokovic's domination, in fact he lost 6 times on 6 against the Serb and for that the mental frustration is becoming bigger and bigger, almost the same as Federer got against him.
Rafa got to this Australian Open with a lot of doubts about his physical shape, he decleared in a lot of interviews to not to be at the best of his shape, he lost as well in Doha very easily to Monfils but apparently he got the shape match by match, improving on each one and playing absolutely a superb semifinal against RF, so solid on the baseline running on whichever ball, making his game with the forehand and very few unforced errors, just in style.
So similar condition there were as well during the last US Open Final, because on last september Djokovic beated on the semifinal Roger Federer by saving two match points 7:5 on the final set, same result as he got against Andy Murray here and he finished as this time very tired and as well on that tournament getting some physical problems that he paid in some way on the final where he called twice medical time out, the only differences we might say is that time Nadal didn't had a day off more then Djokovic as it is happening here at the Australian Open and as well the surface in our opinion helps Nadal here in Melbourne, because the bounces at the US Open are higher (Nadal pays that a lot on the backhand) and the surface is decidedly faster regarding here in Melbourne.
Of course right now Novak Djokovic is a better player then Nadal on hard surface, because he serves better and he plays more offensively having the chance to make the winner with both strokes and as well mentally looking the last head to head looks another big key for Novak and for that in a normal condition match he would have been the biggest favourite and let's say that if this match would have been played just three days ago, just before the semifinals, the odds would say at least 1.45-1.50 on Djokovic and 3.00-3.20 on Nadal.
We believe as most of the people for sure that if Djokovic had a good rest, had not any physical problem as he partly showed against Ferrer (The Serb spoke about some stomach problem) or is still not too tired after the big match against Murray, would be surely the biggest favourite of this match and 1.70 would be decidedly too much, but in case the things would not work on this way and Djokovic would not be 100% fit and ready for this, then on a long match Nadal would have a lot of chances more, because he is a fighter, he doesn't give almost no free points and then for that would be very very difficult for the Serb and on this situation the 2.40 for Nadal would be as well too much.
It's really too tough to analyze this match and all those situation, it's everything too doubtful for a normal analysis based on a simply knowledge and moreover you know the goal of betting is to find a value, everyone knows about those players, this match and all what is happening right now, then it's almost impossible that a bookmaker would mistake a market like this.
Finally we really believe that on some way the odds are showing the real truth of this match, of course according to all the analysis if you wanna kill yourself on some way you should go with the price cause +140 on a long run playing always this kind of match in our opinion would give you a better payback then what that 1.70 shows for Djokovic, but you know tomorrow will start few upcoming tournaments and for sure on the first rounds there will be more chances to find a real good value then what there really are on this match.
Sometimes the real biggest bet, is no bet, you gonna winning anyway doing this on Djokovic v Nadal, Australian Open 2012 Final.
So, If you are based in Australia, spend a good dinner watching the match, if you are based in Europe spend a good breakfast watching the match, if you are based on the US or South America take some cofee and biscuits(Beer for the younger ones) with you watching the match and if you are based in Asia we wish you a good afternoon, but please stay without any bet, at least if you got confidence on US... otherwise Good Luck, needed on this match...
Adiós
La12
