Well, I don't really post in public much anymore, but now that I am at Diamond Sportsbook as their featured Football writer (Soccer, whatever you call it, I just hate the word soccer LoL) I figured I can share what I post there with therx community.
Yes I am Ej by the way, in case you don't know me by now. I was featured in Beckett's World Cup 2014 Guide book as well, where I profiled 10 of the 32 Clubs for them.
Anyway, I have had my own Italian Football Radio Show for years, and have now expanded to the big 4 European Leagues to write full time for Diamond. If you would like my take on what I expect on the Spanish pitch, here is what I have posted for all an any to read..... (I have Italy, Germany and England posted, and I will cover all Champions League matches)
Week 10 of La Liga gets the weekend started on Friday, October 31, and runs through Monday November 3. The featured match of the weekend brings us to Camp Nou where Barcelona hosts Celta Vigo and both clubs only have 1 loss on the campaign. Barcelona is coming off a 3 - 1 loss to Madrid over the weekend in El Clasico, but still sits atop the table tied with Sevilla at 22 points.In other matches this weekend, Sevilla heads to Athletic Bilbao to try and keep pace with Barcelona, and Valencia heads to Villareal in an important match as both clubs are in the top 10 of the table.
Let's take a look at the weekend and see what we can expect on the pitch in Spain.
Friday, October 31- 1 Match Getafe vs La Coruna
3-Way: 1: Getafe +305 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: La Coruna +105 Home
Home Spread: Getafe +0.5 -125 ; La Coruna -0.5 +105
Total : Over 2 -115 ; Under 2 -105
Analysis and Prediction:
Both clubs are basically giving up too many goals this year with close to a 1 - 2 ratio on the campaign. La Coruna has found a little more success finding the net, scoring 11 goals so far, while Getafe has only scored 6 goals through 9 matches.
The lines are fair, considering La Coruna won their last home match and Getafe is 1 - 3 away from home. I will take this Over 2 with minimal juice expecting neither club to be sound on defense for 90 minutes. I’m expecting, at the worst, a 1 - 1 match to push the action.
Saturday, November 1 - 4 Matches
Featured Match Celta Vigo vs Barcelona
3-Way 1x2 Lines:
Vigo +1650
Barcelona -700
Draw +800
Spread:
Vigo +2.5 -120
Barcelona -2.5 +100
Total 3.5:
Over -130
Under +110
Analysis and Prediction:
Barcelona is expected to get back on track coming off a3 - 1 loss, their first of the year, while also letting in the only goals they have allowed all season. Celta Vigo has not lost an away match this season and only have 1 loss the entire campaign.
This is not going to be the cake walk everyone expects it to be.
Celta Vigo has not beaten Barca since the ‘04 season, and last year Barcelona took both matches 3 - 0.
There is no doubt Barcelona will come out irate and angry but also have to look ahead to Champions League after the weekend vs Ajax.
Celta Vigo will score here as they can muster up enough offense to at least keep it close early.
I expect this Over 3.5 as a solid play here, due to the fact that Barcelona will not sit back and be defensive-minded. They will try to keep Vigo frustrated, but it will not be as easy as it sounds. Larrivey and Nolito are at the top of the scorers group together with 6 and 5 GF and I expect one of them to break through and help the cause. I will make the call 4 - 2 Barca. Play it accordingly.
Real Madrid vs Granada
3-Way: 1: Madrid -350 Away ; X: +480 Draw ; 2: Granada +1045
Home Spread: Madrid -1.5 -135 ; Granada +1.5 +115
Total 3: Over -145 ; Under +125
Analysis and Prediction:
Real also has a Champions League match on deck mid-week, but no matter what they have in front of them, no one is stopping them. Pick your poison because you can try to keep Ronaldo at bay, but he is one of many who can deliver on any given day. No one expects any type of upset here, and the lines reflect that as well. Madrid -1.5 is the safest play, despite the -135. They will win by 2 and you should also look at some 1st Half props that all point to Madrid as well. You will/should be able to get the Over 1.5 1st Half at a reasonable line and Madrid -1 1st Half should have an acceptable price as well.
Cordoba vs Atletico Madrid
3-Way: 1: +1500 Away ; X: +525 Draw ; 2: Madrid -450
Home Spread: Cordoba +2 -125 ; Madrid -2 +105
Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
Atletico has the pleasure of facing the last team yet to win a match this campaign, but Cordoba does lead the league with 5 draws, so they are at least finding points here and there.
Atletico is another of the Spanish teams headed for a mid-week Champions League match, as they will head to Sweden after the match to take on Malmo.
If not for Barcelona only giving up 3 goals this season, Madrid is the next closest club with only 7 goals allowed and they sit with 20 points and everyone in sight above them.
With Cordoba not expected to have much success offensively, the -2 Handicap with + Money on Madrid should probably be the best way to go here.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad
3-Way: 1: Malaga +270 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Sociedad +110
Home Spread: Malaga +0.5 -130 ; Sociedad -0.5 +110
Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115
Analysis and Prediction:
Sociedad had a major victory over Real Madrid back on the last day of August, and have since gone 7 matches without a victory. Now they find themselves facing a Malaga club who has won 3 straight matches and are climbing up the table with 15 points on the campaign.
Malaga is coming off an impressive 4 - 0 win over Vallecano and will try to keep their momentum going in the right direction.
I would recommend taking the Malaga Pk if you can find that, instead of the +0.5 with -130 juice, expecting them to get a result regardless. I would also suggest taking this Total and the Over 2.5 with minimal juice of -105.
Sunday. November 2 - 4 Matches
Sevilla at Athletic Bilbao
3-Way: 1: Sevilla +200 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Bilbao +145
Home Spread: Sevilla Pk +110 ; Bilbao Pk -130
Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115
Analysis and Prediction:
Sevilla and Barca are neck and neck at 7 - 1 - 1 with 22 points on top of the table, and we have mentioned plenty that Bilbao is simply not the club they were last year.
Bilbao will be another one of the Spanish clubs looking towards a Champions League match mid-week. They are also not making a showing there at the bottom of Group G and are likely not going anywhere past the group stage.
They both will need these points and a draw for either has no value. I expect a 2 - 1 type match at the worst, so we look to the Over 2.5 with minimal juice.
Valencia vs Villareal
3-Way: 1: Valencia +145 Away ; X: +255 Draw ; 2: Villareal +115
Home Spread: Valencia +0.5 -135 ; Villareal -0.5 +115
Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100
Analysis and Prediction:
Now this will be fun. If you like shootout-style football and have a good commentator calling the match, he will be saying one thing again and again -- GOL!
I am eating this Over 2.5 for lunch and then buying myself a nice steak for dinner with the money we make. Neither club will have much success stopping the other.
Almeria vs Levante
3-Way: 1: Almeria +225 Away ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: Levante +140
Spread: Almeria Pk +125 ; Levante Pk -145
Total 2: Over -130 ; Under +110
Analysis and Prediction:
Does anyone feel bad for Levante yet? I am not feeling that upset that they have not been able to put anything together this season and, from a betting standpoint, why would we care?
To see Almeria come in here and at least get a draw is worth a play on the Pk +125 line with plenty of value behind it. Let them draw if they must, it won't hurt a bit.
Espanyol vs Elche
3-Way: 1: Espanyol +175 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Elche +175
Home Spread: Espanyol Pk -110 ; Elche Pk -105
Total 2: Over -115 ; Under -105
Analysis and Prediction:
The outcome of this match might be the toughest to predict. Elche sits near the bottom of the table due to the fact that they have had no success stopping anyone, but Espanyol is not exactly an offensive power house to say the least.
At least Espanyol can score, although neither have done much of it, but I will take the club that has a semblance of defensive ability and take the Pk on Espanyol with minimal juice.
Monday. November 3 - 1 Match
Eibar vs Vallecano
3-Way: 1: Eibar +280 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; Vallecano +110
Home Spread: Eibar +0.5 -130 ; Vallecano -0.5 +110
Total 2: Over -140 ; Under +120
Analysis and Prediction:
These two clubs haven't met in 5 years, so there is no familiarity with their approaches, but we know Eibar really does not have the presence up front to concern anyone. Vallecano is in the same boat, so where are these goals supposed to come from is the question. This is why the total sits at 2 and they will gladly pay you for knowing we won't see more than two goals at +120.
Expecting a low-scoring 1 - 1 type match, I will look to the Handicap +0.5 on Vallecano with some value at +110.
______________________________________________________________________
If you would like the other previews, post in my thread and I'll throw the other ones for the weekend on the board.
Otherwise, hey! In Bocca A Lupo A Tutti!
Yes I am Ej by the way, in case you don't know me by now. I was featured in Beckett's World Cup 2014 Guide book as well, where I profiled 10 of the 32 Clubs for them.
Anyway, I have had my own Italian Football Radio Show for years, and have now expanded to the big 4 European Leagues to write full time for Diamond. If you would like my take on what I expect on the Spanish pitch, here is what I have posted for all an any to read..... (I have Italy, Germany and England posted, and I will cover all Champions League matches)
Week 10 of La Liga gets the weekend started on Friday, October 31, and runs through Monday November 3. The featured match of the weekend brings us to Camp Nou where Barcelona hosts Celta Vigo and both clubs only have 1 loss on the campaign. Barcelona is coming off a 3 - 1 loss to Madrid over the weekend in El Clasico, but still sits atop the table tied with Sevilla at 22 points.In other matches this weekend, Sevilla heads to Athletic Bilbao to try and keep pace with Barcelona, and Valencia heads to Villareal in an important match as both clubs are in the top 10 of the table.
Let's take a look at the weekend and see what we can expect on the pitch in Spain.
Friday, October 31- 1 Match Getafe vs La Coruna
3-Way: 1: Getafe +305 Away ; X: +225 Draw ; 2: La Coruna +105 Home
Home Spread: Getafe +0.5 -125 ; La Coruna -0.5 +105
Total : Over 2 -115 ; Under 2 -105
Analysis and Prediction:
Both clubs are basically giving up too many goals this year with close to a 1 - 2 ratio on the campaign. La Coruna has found a little more success finding the net, scoring 11 goals so far, while Getafe has only scored 6 goals through 9 matches.
The lines are fair, considering La Coruna won their last home match and Getafe is 1 - 3 away from home. I will take this Over 2 with minimal juice expecting neither club to be sound on defense for 90 minutes. I’m expecting, at the worst, a 1 - 1 match to push the action.
Saturday, November 1 - 4 Matches
Featured Match Celta Vigo vs Barcelona
3-Way 1x2 Lines:
Vigo +1650
Barcelona -700
Draw +800
Spread:
Vigo +2.5 -120
Barcelona -2.5 +100
Total 3.5:
Over -130
Under +110
Analysis and Prediction:
Barcelona is expected to get back on track coming off a3 - 1 loss, their first of the year, while also letting in the only goals they have allowed all season. Celta Vigo has not lost an away match this season and only have 1 loss the entire campaign.
This is not going to be the cake walk everyone expects it to be.
Celta Vigo has not beaten Barca since the ‘04 season, and last year Barcelona took both matches 3 - 0.
There is no doubt Barcelona will come out irate and angry but also have to look ahead to Champions League after the weekend vs Ajax.
Celta Vigo will score here as they can muster up enough offense to at least keep it close early.
I expect this Over 3.5 as a solid play here, due to the fact that Barcelona will not sit back and be defensive-minded. They will try to keep Vigo frustrated, but it will not be as easy as it sounds. Larrivey and Nolito are at the top of the scorers group together with 6 and 5 GF and I expect one of them to break through and help the cause. I will make the call 4 - 2 Barca. Play it accordingly.
Real Madrid vs Granada
3-Way: 1: Madrid -350 Away ; X: +480 Draw ; 2: Granada +1045
Home Spread: Madrid -1.5 -135 ; Granada +1.5 +115
Total 3: Over -145 ; Under +125
Analysis and Prediction:
Real also has a Champions League match on deck mid-week, but no matter what they have in front of them, no one is stopping them. Pick your poison because you can try to keep Ronaldo at bay, but he is one of many who can deliver on any given day. No one expects any type of upset here, and the lines reflect that as well. Madrid -1.5 is the safest play, despite the -135. They will win by 2 and you should also look at some 1st Half props that all point to Madrid as well. You will/should be able to get the Over 1.5 1st Half at a reasonable line and Madrid -1 1st Half should have an acceptable price as well.
Cordoba vs Atletico Madrid
3-Way: 1: +1500 Away ; X: +525 Draw ; 2: Madrid -450
Home Spread: Cordoba +2 -125 ; Madrid -2 +105
Total 2.5: Over -135 ; Under +115
Analysis and Prediction:
Atletico has the pleasure of facing the last team yet to win a match this campaign, but Cordoba does lead the league with 5 draws, so they are at least finding points here and there.
Atletico is another of the Spanish teams headed for a mid-week Champions League match, as they will head to Sweden after the match to take on Malmo.
If not for Barcelona only giving up 3 goals this season, Madrid is the next closest club with only 7 goals allowed and they sit with 20 points and everyone in sight above them.
With Cordoba not expected to have much success offensively, the -2 Handicap with + Money on Madrid should probably be the best way to go here.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad
3-Way: 1: Malaga +270 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Sociedad +110
Home Spread: Malaga +0.5 -130 ; Sociedad -0.5 +110
Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115
Analysis and Prediction:
Sociedad had a major victory over Real Madrid back on the last day of August, and have since gone 7 matches without a victory. Now they find themselves facing a Malaga club who has won 3 straight matches and are climbing up the table with 15 points on the campaign.
Malaga is coming off an impressive 4 - 0 win over Vallecano and will try to keep their momentum going in the right direction.
I would recommend taking the Malaga Pk if you can find that, instead of the +0.5 with -130 juice, expecting them to get a result regardless. I would also suggest taking this Total and the Over 2.5 with minimal juice of -105.
Sunday. November 2 - 4 Matches
Sevilla at Athletic Bilbao
3-Way: 1: Sevilla +200 Away ; X: +235 Draw ; 2: Bilbao +145
Home Spread: Sevilla Pk +110 ; Bilbao Pk -130
Total 2.5: Over -105 ; Under -115
Analysis and Prediction:
Sevilla and Barca are neck and neck at 7 - 1 - 1 with 22 points on top of the table, and we have mentioned plenty that Bilbao is simply not the club they were last year.
Bilbao will be another one of the Spanish clubs looking towards a Champions League match mid-week. They are also not making a showing there at the bottom of Group G and are likely not going anywhere past the group stage.
They both will need these points and a draw for either has no value. I expect a 2 - 1 type match at the worst, so we look to the Over 2.5 with minimal juice.
Valencia vs Villareal
3-Way: 1: Valencia +145 Away ; X: +255 Draw ; 2: Villareal +115
Home Spread: Valencia +0.5 -135 ; Villareal -0.5 +115
Total 2.5: Over -120 ; Under +100
Analysis and Prediction:
Now this will be fun. If you like shootout-style football and have a good commentator calling the match, he will be saying one thing again and again -- GOL!
I am eating this Over 2.5 for lunch and then buying myself a nice steak for dinner with the money we make. Neither club will have much success stopping the other.
Almeria vs Levante
3-Way: 1: Almeria +225 Away ; X: +215 Draw ; 2: Levante +140
Spread: Almeria Pk +125 ; Levante Pk -145
Total 2: Over -130 ; Under +110
Analysis and Prediction:
Does anyone feel bad for Levante yet? I am not feeling that upset that they have not been able to put anything together this season and, from a betting standpoint, why would we care?
To see Almeria come in here and at least get a draw is worth a play on the Pk +125 line with plenty of value behind it. Let them draw if they must, it won't hurt a bit.
Espanyol vs Elche
3-Way: 1: Espanyol +175 Away ; X: +210 Draw ; 2: Elche +175
Home Spread: Espanyol Pk -110 ; Elche Pk -105
Total 2: Over -115 ; Under -105
Analysis and Prediction:
The outcome of this match might be the toughest to predict. Elche sits near the bottom of the table due to the fact that they have had no success stopping anyone, but Espanyol is not exactly an offensive power house to say the least.
At least Espanyol can score, although neither have done much of it, but I will take the club that has a semblance of defensive ability and take the Pk on Espanyol with minimal juice.
Monday. November 3 - 1 Match
Eibar vs Vallecano
3-Way: 1: Eibar +280 Away ; X: +230 Draw ; Vallecano +110
Home Spread: Eibar +0.5 -130 ; Vallecano -0.5 +110
Total 2: Over -140 ; Under +120
Analysis and Prediction:
These two clubs haven't met in 5 years, so there is no familiarity with their approaches, but we know Eibar really does not have the presence up front to concern anyone. Vallecano is in the same boat, so where are these goals supposed to come from is the question. This is why the total sits at 2 and they will gladly pay you for knowing we won't see more than two goals at +120.
Expecting a low-scoring 1 - 1 type match, I will look to the Handicap +0.5 on Vallecano with some value at +110.
______________________________________________________________________
If you would like the other previews, post in my thread and I'll throw the other ones for the weekend on the board.
Otherwise, hey! In Bocca A Lupo A Tutti!
