The following is my daily disclaimer. Anything in bold is something I added recently.
FWIW...
For those that are unfamiliar with my plays, I play games based on the announced referee matchups for each game. I have compiled sides and totals ATS records for every NBA ref for the past 8 years and ranked them all. My rankings are weighted more toward more recent seasons to take into account refs that change their style over the years. They're also weighted more heavily toward refs with more games officiated to downplay short term trends that may be just coincidental (ie. I rank Marc Davis, a ref with a career 23-13 home/away record below Joe Derosa, a ref with a career 242-234 record). Just this past month I added each ref's fouls/game average to the rankings, with the assumption that more fouls/game equates to a better chance for the over. Indeed, I have found that there is a pretty decent correlation factor between the two.
The results are quite interesting. There are numerous refs with a definite bias in one way or other. For example, one of my favorite refs is Joey Crawford who has made money for under bettors every year AND he's one of the best ref's for playing road teams every year, too. Very often, when he's reffing, I'll play the home team to go under the individual team total as a way of combining both trends. Of course, this is assuming that the other 2 refs do not have tendancies in the other direction. My go / no-go decision on playing the game is based on ALL 3 REFS in other words.
Each game has 3 refs assigned to it, so what I'll do is compare the relative rankings of all 3 refs to see if they all have the same bias in some particular direction (home, road, over, or under). When I find a combination of refs whose biases combine to exceed my predetermined "go / no-go" level, I make the game a play.
I have used this system for 3 years and have hit 55% sides and nearly 60% on the totals. It has always worked best in the 2nd half of the season. I believe that is due to some refs that change their reffing style. My guess is that they are most likely to change their style between seasons, and consequently the early season games are more of a crapshoot. This season is showing the same trend. I was 17-19 before I stopped playing the games in early Dec. Since I started up again in early Jan, and after updating my data with fouls/game stats, I've gone 40 -36.
The one downside to posting these plays, however, is that the ref matchups are very often not announced til just a couple of minutes prior to gametime. Consequently, many of you wishing to play these games will miss out if you don't catch my post right away. My suggestion is this - if you miss out on the game start, wait til halftime and make the same play for the 2nd half. The refs don't change at halftime, so theoretically it should work just as well for 2nd half totals. I have checked this out for myself and the plays win the 2nd half just as often, regardless of what happened in the 1st half *** (SEE IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW).
I have started adding my rating for each game that I'm playing. My rating is a numerical value of how strong the play is. The number is basically the ADJUSTED sums of the ATS career records of the 3 assigned refs for each game. For example: The refs for last night's Phil/Dallas game were Bennie Adams, Blane Reichelt, and Greg Willard. The career (adjusted) ATS average winning pct for Home teams when one of these refs were officiating were 51.3%, 47.1%, and 52.6% respectively. I calculate my rating by summing the averages and subtracting the result from 150% (3 times a perfectly "average" ref). Therefore in this case we had 51.3 +47.1 + 52.6 = 151.0. 151.0 -150 = +1.0. This indicates there was a slight bias toward the home team by this trio of refs, but not enough to make the game a play. I make a game a play if the number is higher than 7.2, so this game was far below the level I judge to be a play. After completing the analysis for Home/Away, I do the same analysis for the over/under. Note: I still make all plays for 1 unit regardless of the strength of the play.
Here's my list of top 5's:
Top 5 Refs for playing home teams
Sean Corbin 55.7% ATS
Tom Washington 54.4% ATS
Gary Zielinski 53.7% ATS
Ron Olesiak 53.4% ATS
Ed Rush 52.8%
Top 5 Refs for playing Road teams:
Joe Crawford 45.3% ATS
Jim Clark 45.4% ATS
Monty McCutchen 45.8% ATS
Bob Delaney 46.9% ATS
Jason Phillips 46.9% ATS
Top 5 Refs for playing overs:
Joe Forte 56.5% ATS
Jim Clark 56.0% ATS
Ed Rush 54.7% ATS
Leroy Richardson 54.7% ATS
Phil Robinson 54.3% ATS
Top 5 Refs for playing unders:
Kevin Fehr 41.8% ATS
Joe Crawford 42.3% ATS
Scott Foster 44.5% ATS
Mark Wunderlich 44.6% ATS
Ron Olesiak 45.1% ATS
A couple of things to note from these rankings. First, notice that the ATS percentages are more extreme for the over/unders than the home/aways. This goes a long way toward explaining why I have been more successful playing totals than sides.
Second, notice that there are 4 refs that appear in the top 5 in two different categories. When one of these refs is officiating, I often use this info to combine his tendancies into a single play on an individual team total. For example, in these four cases I'll play it like this:
With Joe Crawford (42.3% overs, 45.3% home), I'll play the home team to go under.
With Ed Rush (54.7% overs, 52.8% home), I'll play the home team to go over.
With Jim Clark (56.0% overs, 45.4% home), I'll play the road team to go over.
With Ron Olesiak (45.1% overs, 53.4% home), I'll play the road team to go under.
This of course assumes that the other 2 refs are not biased significantly in the other direction. Anyway, good luck to anyone wishing to use this info. Tonight's plays coming up soon.
*** NOTE: ALTHOUGH I ORIGINALLY RECOMMENDED PLAYING THE 2ND HALVES OF GAMES, I AM NOW RECOMMENDING PLAYING ONLY FIRST HALVES. I have decided to change my strategy for implementing my plays for now on. So many times this year, my plays have looked good through 3 1/2 quarters only to fall victim to the last minute "quick shot, foul, foul shot, time out, repeat" strategy that poisons so many games. Or a play on a dog or an under is ruined when the game goes O.T.
To remedy this situation, I've decided to play all my plays as first half plays only. The first half is far more likely to be influenced by the referee matchups than the 2nd half. The last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter, in particular, are almost totally influenced by the game situation and score, and the refs have little influence on what happens from this point on. The problem is, most games the final spread and total are greatly influenced by this part of the game.
The first half is much less random, so therefore the referee matchups will have much more of an influence. My picks from a couple of night's ago were a glaring example of this. All 3 of my picks were 1st half winners, yet all 3 lost because of the randomness of the final 2 minutes.<!-- / message -->
FWIW...
For those that are unfamiliar with my plays, I play games based on the announced referee matchups for each game. I have compiled sides and totals ATS records for every NBA ref for the past 8 years and ranked them all. My rankings are weighted more toward more recent seasons to take into account refs that change their style over the years. They're also weighted more heavily toward refs with more games officiated to downplay short term trends that may be just coincidental (ie. I rank Marc Davis, a ref with a career 23-13 home/away record below Joe Derosa, a ref with a career 242-234 record). Just this past month I added each ref's fouls/game average to the rankings, with the assumption that more fouls/game equates to a better chance for the over. Indeed, I have found that there is a pretty decent correlation factor between the two.
The results are quite interesting. There are numerous refs with a definite bias in one way or other. For example, one of my favorite refs is Joey Crawford who has made money for under bettors every year AND he's one of the best ref's for playing road teams every year, too. Very often, when he's reffing, I'll play the home team to go under the individual team total as a way of combining both trends. Of course, this is assuming that the other 2 refs do not have tendancies in the other direction. My go / no-go decision on playing the game is based on ALL 3 REFS in other words.
Each game has 3 refs assigned to it, so what I'll do is compare the relative rankings of all 3 refs to see if they all have the same bias in some particular direction (home, road, over, or under). When I find a combination of refs whose biases combine to exceed my predetermined "go / no-go" level, I make the game a play.
I have used this system for 3 years and have hit 55% sides and nearly 60% on the totals. It has always worked best in the 2nd half of the season. I believe that is due to some refs that change their reffing style. My guess is that they are most likely to change their style between seasons, and consequently the early season games are more of a crapshoot. This season is showing the same trend. I was 17-19 before I stopped playing the games in early Dec. Since I started up again in early Jan, and after updating my data with fouls/game stats, I've gone 40 -36.
The one downside to posting these plays, however, is that the ref matchups are very often not announced til just a couple of minutes prior to gametime. Consequently, many of you wishing to play these games will miss out if you don't catch my post right away. My suggestion is this - if you miss out on the game start, wait til halftime and make the same play for the 2nd half. The refs don't change at halftime, so theoretically it should work just as well for 2nd half totals. I have checked this out for myself and the plays win the 2nd half just as often, regardless of what happened in the 1st half *** (SEE IMPORTANT NOTE BELOW).
I have started adding my rating for each game that I'm playing. My rating is a numerical value of how strong the play is. The number is basically the ADJUSTED sums of the ATS career records of the 3 assigned refs for each game. For example: The refs for last night's Phil/Dallas game were Bennie Adams, Blane Reichelt, and Greg Willard. The career (adjusted) ATS average winning pct for Home teams when one of these refs were officiating were 51.3%, 47.1%, and 52.6% respectively. I calculate my rating by summing the averages and subtracting the result from 150% (3 times a perfectly "average" ref). Therefore in this case we had 51.3 +47.1 + 52.6 = 151.0. 151.0 -150 = +1.0. This indicates there was a slight bias toward the home team by this trio of refs, but not enough to make the game a play. I make a game a play if the number is higher than 7.2, so this game was far below the level I judge to be a play. After completing the analysis for Home/Away, I do the same analysis for the over/under. Note: I still make all plays for 1 unit regardless of the strength of the play.
Here's my list of top 5's:
Top 5 Refs for playing home teams
Sean Corbin 55.7% ATS
Tom Washington 54.4% ATS
Gary Zielinski 53.7% ATS
Ron Olesiak 53.4% ATS
Ed Rush 52.8%
Top 5 Refs for playing Road teams:
Joe Crawford 45.3% ATS
Jim Clark 45.4% ATS
Monty McCutchen 45.8% ATS
Bob Delaney 46.9% ATS
Jason Phillips 46.9% ATS
Top 5 Refs for playing overs:
Joe Forte 56.5% ATS
Jim Clark 56.0% ATS
Ed Rush 54.7% ATS
Leroy Richardson 54.7% ATS
Phil Robinson 54.3% ATS
Top 5 Refs for playing unders:
Kevin Fehr 41.8% ATS
Joe Crawford 42.3% ATS
Scott Foster 44.5% ATS
Mark Wunderlich 44.6% ATS
Ron Olesiak 45.1% ATS
A couple of things to note from these rankings. First, notice that the ATS percentages are more extreme for the over/unders than the home/aways. This goes a long way toward explaining why I have been more successful playing totals than sides.
Second, notice that there are 4 refs that appear in the top 5 in two different categories. When one of these refs is officiating, I often use this info to combine his tendancies into a single play on an individual team total. For example, in these four cases I'll play it like this:
With Joe Crawford (42.3% overs, 45.3% home), I'll play the home team to go under.
With Ed Rush (54.7% overs, 52.8% home), I'll play the home team to go over.
With Jim Clark (56.0% overs, 45.4% home), I'll play the road team to go over.
With Ron Olesiak (45.1% overs, 53.4% home), I'll play the road team to go under.
This of course assumes that the other 2 refs are not biased significantly in the other direction. Anyway, good luck to anyone wishing to use this info. Tonight's plays coming up soon.
*** NOTE: ALTHOUGH I ORIGINALLY RECOMMENDED PLAYING THE 2ND HALVES OF GAMES, I AM NOW RECOMMENDING PLAYING ONLY FIRST HALVES. I have decided to change my strategy for implementing my plays for now on. So many times this year, my plays have looked good through 3 1/2 quarters only to fall victim to the last minute "quick shot, foul, foul shot, time out, repeat" strategy that poisons so many games. Or a play on a dog or an under is ruined when the game goes O.T.
To remedy this situation, I've decided to play all my plays as first half plays only. The first half is far more likely to be influenced by the referee matchups than the 2nd half. The last 2 minutes of the 4th quarter, in particular, are almost totally influenced by the game situation and score, and the refs have little influence on what happens from this point on. The problem is, most games the final spread and total are greatly influenced by this part of the game.
The first half is much less random, so therefore the referee matchups will have much more of an influence. My picks from a couple of night's ago were a glaring example of this. All 3 of my picks were 1st half winners, yet all 3 lost because of the randomness of the final 2 minutes.<!-- / message -->
