Complete prep race recap, good reference material
The
Road to the Kentucky Derby has drawn to a close, and the Run for the Roses is coming up May 6, 2023, at Churchill Downs! Though the field will not be drawn and finalized until May 1, the points preps are over, and the likely horses in the field are doing their final workouts and getting ready for the 1 1/4-mile, $3 million classic race.
As a handicapper, some of the best work you can do now is to make sure you know which horses from each major prep are bound for the Kentucky Derby and how they performed. It can help you both assess their class, as well as understand their running style and how it may contribute to the Kentucky Derby pace scenario.
100-Point Prep Races
The 100-point prep races, run between March 25 and April 8, are the most important races leading into the Kentucky Derby. They ensure the winner a spot in the Derby, and though a second- or third-place finish was not enough for a bid like it has been some years, many of the underneath finishers have earned points in other races and thus earned a spot as a
Contender in the Run for the Roses.
Arkansas Derby
With a win in the Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire stamped himself as a serious Kentucky Derby prospect for trainer Brad Cox. Though Angel of Empire took advantage of a pace collapse in front of him when he posted his longshot victory in the Risen Star, he sat a bit closer to the pace, mustered a rally, and closed even more strongly to win the Arkansas Derby by 4 1/4 lengths. His pedigree interests on top and bottom for the stretch out to the Classic distance, and though the quality of the field he beat in Arkansas is questionable, he did so the right way.
Three others from the Arkansas Derby remain under Kentucky Derby consideration, with two in the main field as of April 19 and one other on the outside looking in.
Reincarnate finished a troubled third in the Rebel, leading to sharp betting interest in the Arkansas Derby. He reverted back to his close-to-the-pace style in the Arkansas Derby, but flattened out a bit in the lane and checked in 4 3/4 lengths behind Angel of Empire. His ability to track near the pace is a plus, but he will need to move forward for trainer Tim Yakteen, who took over for Bob Baffert for Derby eligibility reasons.
Rocket Can, fourth in the Arkansas Derby, looked like an exciting prospect after his two prep races in Florida. He won the Holy Bull (G3) in February, then finished a clear second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth. That form on the Gulfstream spur earned this stalking-to-midpack type favoritism for trainer Bill Mott, but the way he finished in the Arkansas Derby suggests distance limitations.
King Russell, second in the Arkansas Derby, had only run in maiden races before that outing and therefore is hoping for a few defections to get into the Derby. He stepped forward well on the class rise, outfinishing Reincarnate and Rocket Can to grab place honors. He has some stamina in his pedigree hand has gotten better as the distances get longer, but he still needs another step forward and may be disadvantaged by a lack of pace in the Derby.
Blue Grass Stakes
The Blue Grass has carried increased Kentucky Derby importance in recent years. 2023 looks no different, as the top five finishers all have enough points to make the Kentucky Derby and are primed to compete.
Tapit Trice, the likely second favorite for the Run for the Roses behind Forte, improved off of his Tampa Bay Derby win. The Todd Pletcher charge got away better than he had in that race, made it to the clear early despite drawing the fence in an eleven-horse field, ran on gamely in the lane despite being bumped by Verifying, and won by a neck. It showed increased maturity from the son of Tapit, and was a positive since Verifying had a more forward trip in a race with modest pace.
The aforementioned Verifying, trained by Brad Cox, took a good step forward in the Blue Grass after running a somewhat troubled fourth as the chalk in the Rebel. Verifying does have more speed than most of the runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby, and his pedigree (he is a Justify half to Midnight Bisou) offers some upside for the step up in trip.
Third-place Blazing Sevens is trained by Chad Brown; Brown’s 2022 Blue Grass winner Zandon went on to run third in the Kentucky Derby. Blazing Sevens has far more to prove, though; his late-running third was a good step up compared to a no-show eighth in the Fountain of Youth, but he was no match for Tapit Trice or Verifying, and he stands to be pace-disadvantaged.
Fourth-place Sun Thunder and fifth-place Raise Cain, likewise, are late-running horses who will be up against it in Kentucky. Sun Thunder finished a good second in the Risen Star, which did collapse, but was no threat in either the Louisiana Derby or the Blue Grass. Raise Cain won a weak Gotham, but proved no match in a deeper Blue Grass.
Florida Derby
Putative Kentucky Derby favorite Forte had to work for this win for trainer Todd Pletcher, but he got there and proved that he not only has the talent to be a serious Kentucky Derby prospect, but also the grit. Things looked hopeless for him in the upper stretch, even as far as the midstretch, with Mage and Cyclone Mischief battling for the lead and Forte still a few lengths in arrears over the notoriously speed-friendly Gulfstream strip. But, Forte never gave up, and he fought best of all late, getting up to win by a length.
One other Florida Derby runner is Kentucky Derby bound, with another ready to enter the field if a few defect. Second-place Mage stepped straight up into the Fountain of Youth off of an impressive maiden win. Mage gained a lot of experience from his troubled fourth in the Fountain of Youth; he showed again in the Florida Derby that he isn’t a great gate horse yet, though he made a good move and just failed to contain Forte late. Mage will need to break better but if he does, he may be able to get a good forward trip in the Derby.
Third-place Cyclone Mischief only racked up 45 points after a pair of thirds in the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth, putting him three below the cutoff as of April 19. His tactical speed makes him an interesting contender from a pace perspective, though he will need to improve, and anything past 1 1/8 miles may be testing it stamina-wise.
Jeff Ruby Steaks
The only 100-point prep on a surface other than dirt, this race is run over the Tapeta track at Turfway Park. Only one horse from the race is in the main field, though another remains hopeful for some defections.
The winner, Two Phil’s, is becoming a bit of a wise-guy horse in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Larry Rivelli, a prodigious winner in Chicago, Two Phil’s tracked midfield and took over in dominant fashion down the lane, winning by 5 1/4 lengths. And, no matter what speed figures you like, he is king: he stands alone with the fastest prep-race Beyer and Brisnet, and ties with Practical Move for fastest TimeformUS figure. He also has solid dirt form, though: he won the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill last year, and hit the board in both the Lecomte (G3) and the Risen Star (G2), quality dirt preps in Louisiana.
Second-place Major Dude only has the 40 points from the Jeff Ruby, leaving him waiting for some scratches for Todd Pletcher. Major Dude has a maiden win and a stakes placing on dirt at age two, but ran in no Derby preps on dirt. With tactical speed, he could find a good spot; with the right draw, he could be an interesting long shot to hang on for a share.
Louisiana Derby
Kingsbarns was a buzz horse after open-lengths maiden and allowance wins in Florida. Though he did not set the early pace in either of those races, he took over on the front end of a Louisiana Derby that lacked pace, and blew the affair wide open in the upper stretch. In a race without as much pace on paper as previous editions of the Kentucky Derby, Kingsbarns has the right running style for trainer Todd Pletcher, and both sides of his pedigree suggest he will be fine with the extra half-furlong of ground.
The second- and fifth-place finishers from the Louisiana Derby are also expected in the Kentucky Derby, with the third-place finisher waiting for a defection.
Second-place Disarm closed up ground for second in the Louisiana Derby in his stakes debut. With 40 points not enough for a spot in the Derby, trainer Steve Asmussen ran him back in the Lexington (G3) as a last-ditch chance for points; the 6 points for third place were just enough to get him into the field. Though finishing only third in that race raises class questions, the longer trip of the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby give Disarm a bit of upside.
Fifth-place Sun Thunder, who ran fifth in the Blue Grass after contesting the Louisiana Derby, may be both pace-challenged and distance-challenged.
Jace’s Road, third in the Louisiana Derby after stalking the pace and flattening late, was pushed out to the wrong side of the Derby bubble after Disarm ran in the Lexington. His tactical speed could be an asset in the Derby, but he ran the Louisiana Derby like a horse who may have some distance limitations.
Santa Anita Derby
Practical Move has shined since stretching out and switching to Ramon Vazquez in the irons. He tallied his third win in a row in the Santa Anita Derby; despite breaking a step slow and getting keen down the back straight, he had enough to take the lead in the lane and holds off the late runs of both Mandarin Hero and Skinner. It wasn’t the easy romp he had in the San Felipe, but it did show that he has the tenacity to fight on when he is challenged, something that helps the chances of a Derby horse.
Practical Move is the only Santa Anita Derby entrant in the Kentucky Derby field as of April 19, though two are on the outside looking in. Third-place Skinner, who also finished third in the San Felipe, is improving and he has enough in his pedigree to make him credible as the distances get longer. Pace may be his downfall since he is a closer, but he has closed for shares into modest paces in California and could be interesting for lower exotics if he draws in.
Mandarin Hero, who shipped in from Japan to contest the Santa Anita Derby, battled Practical move well late and only missed by a nose. It was a good enough effort to allay any concerns about him coming from Japan’s second-level circuit. He handled some bumping well enough to suggest he could take the Derby chaos, and the way he finished in the Santa Anita Derby would make it no surprise to see him outkick other midpack or closing horses if a few horses defect and he draws in.
UAE Derby
Japanese horses dominated the UAE Derby, with horses trained there running 1-2-3-4 in the race. The dominant winner was Derma Sotogake, who set the pace and ran on strongly down the lane to win by 5 1/2 lengths. Though the record of UAE Derby horses in the Kentucky Derby is poor, Japan-trained horses have shined at the biggest international meets in recent years, and Derma Sotogake’s frontrunning style should play well. He also looked strong enough in the 1 3/16-mile prep to be interesting at the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby.
The third-place finisher, Continuar, is also bound for the Kentucky Derby; between his performance in the UAE Derby and the Catteleya Sho on November 22 at Tokyo, he earned the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby bid. A tracking to midpack type, he may get the jump on the real closers, but it is also a significant concern that Derma Sotogake beat him on the square in the UAE Derby, the Saudi Derby, and in the Mochinoki Sho last November at Hanshin.
Wood Memorial
Lord Miles was dismissed at 59-1 after being well beaten in two other Kentucky Derby prep races in Florida earlier in the season, but put things together in the Wood. From a good draw (post 7), he tracked the pace, engaged in the lane, and outslugged both Hit Show and Dreamlike to win by a nose. It was the best tactical speed he had shown yet, and a significant step up from his Florida form, though the Wood has not been a great source of Kentucky Derby winners or even board-hitters.
The only other Wood entrant expected in the Kentucky Derby is Hit Show, the favorite who lost by a nose to Lord Miles. He had to overcome a tough draw in the 12-hole in the Wood, and the experience in that race could benefit him going into a chaotic race like the Kentucky Derby. However, the New York spur’s poor recent record as a Derby prep raises serious questions about a runner who prepared in the Wood and the Withers.
50-Point Prep Races
The second-to-the-last round of Road to the Kentucky Derby races offers 50 points to the winners. In 2023, this stage ran from February 18 through March 26. The winner’s share in these seven races proved to be enough to land the horse in the top 20, even without points for any other races. Underneath shares were not enough alone to get a horse into the Kentucky Derby starting gate, though, as with the 100-point preps, some of the underneath finishers ran well enough in other points races in order to earn their way into the starting gate.
Risen Star
Only the top three finishers from this race are expected in the Kentucky Derby, and all have run in one or two 100-point preps. Angel of Empire, who took advantage of a pace collapse to win this race by a length, franked that form with an even more authoritative win next-out in the Arkansas Derby, rallying into a less blazing pace. Second-place Sun Thunder got only minor awards in both the Louisiana Derby and the Blue Grass, raising distance questions. Like the winner, third-place Two Phil’s also burnished the form of the Risen Star, blowing clear to win that race with authority despite not getting the same pace help he got in the Risen Star.
Rebel Stakes
Rebel winner Confidence Game is one of the few Kentucky Derby horses this year who won a 50-point prep but did not return in another race later on the trail. He thrived on the slop at Oaklawn that day, chasing midpack and taking command in the lane. After the race, trainer Keith Desormaux floated the idea of returning in another prep like the Blue Grass or Lexington, but instead decided to train him to the Derby. He has to have improved since that race to have a shot, though earlier races suggest he has more speed than he showed in the Rebel, which could be an asset.
Third-place Reincarnate and fourth-place Verifying are also expected in the Run for the Roses, though both have raced since. Reincarnate had a nightmare trip in the rebel, not only losing position at the start but dealing with traffic and checking in the lane. He had a better trip in the Arkansas Derby, however, and had no answer for Angel of Empire, suggesting some possible distance limits. Verifying bounced back from his troubled fourth as the Rebel favorite to finish a good second behind Tapit Trice; he is going the right way, and his tactical speed is a legitimate point in his favor.
Fountain of Youth Stakes
Forte, the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby, won this in easy fashion as a strong beginning to his three-year-old season. He returned in the Florida Derby, working harder for that victory but showing a tenacious dimension, proving he does not need things as easy as he had it in the Fountain of Youth.
Three other Fountain of Youth horses are expected in the Derby, with another just on the wrong side of the bubble; all of them prepared in a 100-point prep, too. Second-place Rocket Can, who stalked and chased on a clear second in the Fountain of Youth, suggested when fourth in the Arkansas Derby that the lengthening distances may play against him. Fourth-place Mage took a step forward in the Florida Derby, still starting poorly but only crossing the wire a length behind Forte in that final prep. Blazing Sevens, a no-factor eighth in the Fountain of Youth, chased on for a mild third in the Blue Grass, cementing a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
Third-place Cyclone Mischief is on the outside looking in. He is versatile: he set the pace in the Fountain of Youth and chased midfield in the Florida Derby. Still, he needs a few defections in front of him and a step forward in Kentucky, a lot to ask.
Gotham Stakes
Although fourteen horses started in the Gotham, only one will contest the Kentucky Derby: Raise Cain, who won the Gotham by 7 ½ lengths at 23-1 odds. Raise Cain came back to finish only fifth in the Blue Grass, which was a much deeper field than the Gotham. Add to that the fact that second- and third-place Slip Mahoney and General Banker disappointed in the weaker Wood next out, and Raise Cain does not fit the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner.
San Felipe Stakes
Practical Move won this race emphatically in his three-year-old debut, tracking the pace before taking complete command in the lane. Though his finish margin was not as big next out in the Santa Anita Derby, this race was a good warm-up for that, and he proved a level of tenacity in that final prep that should serve him well in Kentucky.
Second-place Geaux Rocket Ride scratched out of the Santa Anita Derby, so form cannot be traced through that horse. Skinner, who ran on for a belated third in the San Felipe, returned to finish a significantly better third behind Practical Move and Mandarin Hero in the Santa Anita Derby.
Tampa Bay Derby
Tapit Trice made his fourth career start, and his stakes debut, in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was slowest away in this race and was still 4 1/4 lengths off the lead with a furlong remaining, but he closed monstrously to win by two lengths in the end. Tapit Trice followed that up with an even better effort in the Blue Grass. He broke better, maneuvered off the rail despite the big field, and got himself in the race sooner.
The only other runner from the Tampa Bay Derby who will contest the Kentucky Derby is fifth-place Lord Miles. He was never better than midpack in Tampa, but took a step forward to upset the Wood by a nose over favored Hit Show. He is going the right way, but still must improve even further if he is to hold his own with the leading contenders in the Kentucky Derby.
Sunland Park Derby
The longest shot on the board at 35-1 in a six-horse field, Wild On Ice tracked a fiery early pace in the Sunland Park Derby and took over in the lane to win by 1 1/4 lengths. It was enough to earn him 50 points and convince his connections to pay the late nomination fee to get him into the Kentucky Derby. However, he has yet to race outside of New Mexico and has yet to run a race that suggests he fits with the top echelon of Kentucky Derby contenders.
