keeper help

[Robstradamus]

i almost never ask for help when it comes to fantasy football and can count on one hand how much advice i've ever asked for. but this has got me. it's nice to have a second opinion or more.

in the keeper league i'm in, we're allowed to keep 3 players. it's our first year and i lucked out and got the first pick which i used obviously for LT. my draft went well and i made good moves through the year, and i'm now in the championship in a pretty competitive league. keep in mind i made no trades so i will have a normal set of picks in the draft next year.

i'm just stuck on who to keep. i've done fantasy football for many years but this is my first keeper so i'm still getting accustom to it. here's my roster...

qb: drew brees, kurt warner, jeff garcia
running back: tomlinson, earnest graham, marshawn lynch, kolby smith, caddy williams
wr: steve smith, bobby engram, dwayne bowe, shaun mcdonald, brandon stokley, donte stallworthless
te: tony scheffler
k: rob bironas
def: tampa, chicago

i can't believe someone dropped tampa, esp with their cupcake playoff time matchups. and the only reason i haven't dropped stallworth and some others is that with the waiver system, i'm often not getting who i want and the list of FAs is picked clean. but oh well.

right now, i've got my keepers clicked off as tomlinson, lynch and steve smith. but with smith's binary code type production, i'm a little nervous. i know their rotating quarterback door is hurting him but that doesn't inspire me to keep him if he can just flat out fail so miserably without another player to help him. and he's produced like a 3rd stringer in some games, which to me is unacceptable regardless of who is passing. you've gotta gain separation and do something. bowe looks nice but i don't trust that kc passing game and won't for a few years esp with coach clueless at the helm.

this is part of the reason i picked up caddy once someone dropped him. well, i tried to trade him but waited too long. so i'm wondering, do i keep him? or has graham done so well he's turned tampa into a RBBC? cause i want none of that. barber just screwed me in another league and i'm bitter lol

i've also just thought about brees but that's iffy. i guess this isn't the worst problem a person could have but if i lose in the title game, i've got the worst draft position i can have without a title to show for it. so i want to pick these wisely.

any help's appreciated

 

[JakeT.]

LT for sure but I'm guessing you've figured that part out.

Marshawn Lynch is your 2nd best IMO. I was a little worried about Buffalo's O line in recent years but they've made some moves that make me think the RB will have holes for a while.

It's too tough to figure out who will get carries next year between Caddy and Graham and Kolby Smith will be a backup.

I think Brees or S. Smith has to be your choice. Seeing as it's easier to find value with WRs late, I'd keep Brees who should be good to go for a few more years at least as a top 8 fantasy QB.

Bowe isn't worth diddly compared to those four I mentioned. He's a talented WR playing in a run-first offense that favors their TE in passing downs. He won't ever be a top fantasy WR with Edwards running the club.

 

[Robstradamus]

ya i figured bowe could become someone elses problem next year. they'll love him one week then curse him the other 3 when kc passes only to tony g and the other teams corners.

and kolby smith was just depth but man that line is pretty average now and no one fears either qb. i'm glad i didn't draft lj.

 

[FairWarning]

Brees/LT/Lynch

I would then trade LT before the season starts for a boatload. He has about 1-2 prime years left. See SA and LJ for examples of rb's who break down fast. You have a nice problem there. Brees is a top 5 qb too.

 

[TBMIDD]

LT and Lynch for sure. Keep LT then see what his schedule is like for next year. If he can take you to the playoffs again great, if not trade him.

I'd stick wtih Brees, he has been solid and the rest of your RB's are RBBC types.

 

[JakeT.]

Brees/LT/Lynch

I would then trade LT before the season starts for a boatload. He has about 1-2 prime years left. See SA and LJ for examples of rb's who break down fast. You have a nice problem there. Brees is a top 5 qb too.

In my opinion, the problem with SA and LJ has much more to do with their offensive lines than them breaking down. LJ had the best line in football for a while but all the HOF's retired this season, leaving them to rebuild. The holes just aren't there for him. Similarly, SA's decline coincided with the best run-blocking guard in the game (Hutchinson) leaving to Minnesota and Walter Jones (one of the best run-blocking tackles) getting past his prime.

SD's offensive line has some youth on it and I don't see a similar decline happening unless SD makes some bonehead offseason moves.

 

[FairWarning]

In my opinion, the problem with SA and LJ has much more to do with their offensive lines than them breaking down. LJ had the best line in football for a while but all the HOF's retired this season, leaving them to rebuild. The holes just aren't there for him. Similarly, SA's decline coincided with the best run-blocking guard in the game (Hutchinson) leaving to Minnesota and Walter Jones (one of the best run-blocking tackles) getting past his prime.

SD's offensive line has some youth on it and I don't see a similar decline happening unless SD makes some bonehead offseason moves.

LJ held out for 25 days this preseason too. I'm a big believer in selling players once they carry for 350+ times in a year. LJ and SA haven't been the same. In fact, out of 15 RB's coming off a season of 370+ carries, only 7 played the entire season the next year.

Tomlinson's carries year-by-year: 339, 372, 313, 339, 339, 348, 280 (this year). To me, its a great time to sell very high. When these guys break down, it is gradual.

 

[Robstradamus]

In my opinion, the problem with SA and LJ has much more to do with their offensive lines than them breaking down. LJ had the best line in football for a while but all the HOF's retired this season, leaving them to rebuild. The holes just aren't there for him. Similarly, SA's decline coincided with the best run-blocking guard in the game (Hutchinson) leaving to Minnesota and Walter Jones (one of the best run-blocking tackles) getting past his prime.

SD's offensive line has some youth on it and I don't see a similar decline happening unless SD makes some bonehead offseason moves.

that's what i was thinking. im a fan of a team in the afc west so i watch alot of kc games. that line stinks now. the cornerstones retired, and his fullback went bye bye. and sa, like was said, had his line fall into shambles. he was always a guy who needed that blocking. he wasn't ever really super fast and just read his blocks. someone already offered me alexander and some picks, but i politely declined. sa is done until that line is mended to suit him again and i doubt that'll happen before he's gone.

i swear though, this is the only site where you can get real facts about players. you go anywhere else and ask why lj and sa don't produce like they used to and you'll get "derr cuz they suck!!1" and every type of answer some schmuck on a postgame show told them.

i like tomlinson because of that line. even a few years ago when everyone was jumping on his bandwagon because people love the "does it himself" sanders comparison, i don't think he was. they had one of the best oline coaches in football and he crafted alot of what that line does today. and they're very, very good. they don't get the cred they should with everyone loving tomlinson's underdog image. and they're young. and are committed to being a one back system. that i like. it seems more teams are going towards committees, which is crippling for fantasy ball.

i may be crazy but it seems a reliable workhorse back is getting harder to find. what alternatives would i have? willie parker is allergic to the endzone. westbrook runs the risk of injury weekly. willis is one lineman away from mediocrity again. portis is great but runs in a system not suited to him at all. even chester taylor eats an uncomfortable chunk of peterson's carries sometimes or at least threatens to. the list is full of guys who are getting carries hawked away or play on teams where 7 tds a season is the norm. i think lt is as stable as i can get without taking a huge risk these days.

i'll trade lt if the price is right but some people can be cheapskates, including me so we'll see what happens.

all help's appreciated for sure. i was waiting out on who to choose as my third keeper, by seeing who everyone else would keep. if not alot of qbs were going to be kept and i could snatch a good one next draft i'd let brees go. and vice versa with receivers. but no one's budging and i'm not sure when the deadline is but it doesn't appear to be anytime soon. we're all active owners but one, and he'll be gone.

 

[FairWarning]

Good move not trading for SA. You can always look to the guy who has SJax and see how anxious he is to move him. Taking him off his hands, along with something else would be very nice.

Others I would look to acquire - Gore, Addai, S Young, Parker, R Brown. The price would have to be right though. Things happen during the summer and owners get desperate. Nice spot no matter what you do.

 

[Robstradamus]

i'd go for addai for the right offer. gore i think should produce eventually once the passing game gets going. he's a real natural talent.

were u talking about selvin young? he might be the only one i disagree with. i'm a denver fan and i can say in complete confidence, rarely do these young runners who look good in relief duty keep their jobs. i saw how fast mike bell fell off and young, while he's looked good against kc and oakland, isn't really the total package denver needs right now. i've loved the idea of drafting late round guys or signing undrafted runners but i think denver is getting what they're paying for right now. those late round guys are almost always missing something. quentin griffin had elusiveness second only to barry sanders. but he had the strength of a starved fruit fly. tatum bell (not late but played like he was) had 4.2 speed but absolutely zero vision. reuben droughns was a good pounder but couldn't read his blocks. you go bargain bin long enough and you'll find a stud but even mike shanahan has to go through all the guys who have one awesome trait, but lack another important one. and denver's line isn't what it used to be. and i don't think it's injuries either. i mean yes this year it is, but i think lepsis is losing it fast and i think the idea of the small, quick zone blocker, isn't quite working like it used to. i think shanny's gotta look to a 300lbs+ tackle or guard who has the quickness of a 270lbs player.

and not only for the reasons mentioned above, but their goal line offense sucks because of small linemen. it's been getting worse since portis left. small linemen can't push forward on goal line stands when the opposing defense doesn't let them, like they do between the 10s. can't zone block in the endzone. gotta push. and they're too small. denver runners have absolutely nowhere to go down there most of the time. too much of the time. and shanahan should eventually go back to bootlegs on the goal line. scheffler is a monster.

i wish denver would've drafted marion barber. i also would've loved steven jackson in denver. or a healthy ahman green type. i really wish they could get another portis and a really good tackle to go with him.

if you didn't mean selvin young then i just babbled on for nothing lol

good points about the other runners though. ronnie brown did insanely well and that dolphins offense, well, it can't get worse.

 

[FairWarning]

Young will probably be the starter next year. Forgot, Barber can go on that list too.

 

[Robstradamus]

i'd bet my balls it'll be a committee between young and either henry or whoever they draft, or andre hall. but it'll probably be henry, as it'd cost them too much to cut him. so unless they trade him, which i wouldn't mind if it was for a decent DT or OT.

 

[raiseany]

Henry is going to get cut in the offseason unless he restructures his contract. Don't agree with Alexander, he's been awful all year. LJ was more of a product of a horrible offense and too conservative of a HC. Alexander just lost it. Definitely wouldn't disagree with trading LT for decent value. He can't go forever and usually 5 to 6 years at the top is the maximum.