Keep your eyes on these 6 states. If Obama wins 1 of these, he wins the election

[gtc08]

so you still got McCain winning PA then right?

 

[D2bets]

Morning Call poll has a 14% democrat edge (53-39) when it was 2 (41-39) in 2000, and never more than 5 any other year.

The Survey USA has a 19% democrat edge (54-35)


How can you post with a straight face and think they are anything close to legimate samples?

2006 - 43-38
2004 - 41-39


53-54% democrats? 35% republicans?

These polls are BOGUS! Just like the ones that had Gore up 12 on Bush and Clinton up 20 on Dole in this state.

Not sure about those polls but I've seen the targets on the major polls at roughly 39dem-32rep-29indep. I think that is about right. Country has trended far more dem than 4 years ago and 2 years ago. Those are the numbers. I don't know about your 19% national dem edge. If that's what they're using, that is wrong. Zogby's weighting is I believe as I stated. About 6 to 7 point dem edge is right. McCain has to win indep's by a healthy margin to be close and he is simply not doing so right now in any of the polls.

 

[D2bets]

Take your pick of polls in PA....

Polling Data

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/05 - 10/15</td><td>--</td><td>53.8</td><td>39.8</td><td class="spread">Obama +14.0</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Morning Call Tracking</td><td>10/11 - 10/15</td><td>595 LV</td><td>53</td><td>37</td><td class="spread">Obama +16</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">SurveyUSA</td><td>10/11 - 10/13</td><td>516 LV</td><td>55</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +15</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Marist</td><td>10/05 - 10/08</td><td>757 LV</td><td>53</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +12</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>1200 LV</td><td>54</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +14</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen</td><td>10/06 - 10/06</td><td>700 LV</td><td>54</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +13</td></tr></tbody></table>

I happen to think McCain had a better shot in MI than in PA.

 

[Sekrah]

Not sure about those polls but I've seen the targets on the major polls at roughly 39dem-32rep-29indep. I think that is about right.

Nonsense. This is nothing but mass media hype. The Democrats couldn't outnumber the Republicans by more than 4% nationally when we had another Republican named Bush in the White House during a recession.

The electorate hasn't been more than Dem +4% since the 1940's and the demographics have been trending GOP/Conservative for decades. Contrary to media myth, when turnouts are high, Republicans win!

 

[gtc08]

Nonsense. This is nothing but mass media hype. The Democrats couldn't outnumber the Republicans by more than 4% nationally when we had another Republican named Bush in the White House during a recession.

The electorate hasn't been more than Dem +4% since the 1940's and the demographics have been trending GOP/Conservative for decades. Contrary to media myth, when turnouts are high, Republicans win!

your trying too hard sekrah.

 

[Whoson1st]

I would not be surprised to see him win all those mentioned except NC (Very racist state--imo)

 

[gtc08]

I would not be surprised to see him win all those mentioned except NC (Very racist state--imo)

who win all those. mccain or obama

 

[cussin'it]

BigO

 

[Whoson1st]

who win all those. mccain or obama

Obama (not saying he will win them all, but NC would be a surprise to me). I think they are racist like a deep south state.

 

[Buster]

all these people in Tampa have now been told how to vote...

The Tampa (Fla.) Tribune endorsed McCain on Oct. 17:

Hard economic times, a disappointing Republican administration and the seductive promises of a master orator are pushing America toward a European-style social democracy. If you don't want that to happen, vote for Republican Sen. John McCain. ...

McCain brings a lifetime of useful experience, including his grueling captivity in Vietnam and long Senate service. He believes in federalism, a strong defense and disciplined self-interest.

McCain has been willing to cross party lines to work on tough problems. He co-authored a campaign finance law that failed to fulfill its objective, but he did muster the bipartisan support needed to try to control the buying and selling of public office. ...

(Barack) Obama's vision of hope shines like a rainbow, appealing but just out of reach. McCain's call to freedom and responsibility is less exciting, but you know it works. The Tribune encourages voters to vote what they believe, not what they wish were true. The nation needs a stable leader in these unpredictable times.




The Florida key

The 10-county Tampa Bay area is a bellwether of Florida presidential sentiment, having voted with the winner in the last six elections. HereÕs how it compares to the rest of the state and the United States.

Tampa* Population: 2.5 million Median age: 39.8 Median income: $39,286 White: 74% Latino: 12% Black: 11% Asian: 2% Other: 1% ** Florida Population: 16.6 million Median age: 39.1 Median income: $39,871 White: 63% Latino: 19% Black: 15% Asian: 2% Other: 1% ** United States Population: 283 million Median age: 36 Median income: $43,564 White: 68% Latino: 14% Black: 12% Asian: 4% Other: 2%