Plays for friday:
Memphis -3.5 vs. Ole Miss: The tigers havent played a road game yet this season, and will play their 10th game once again at home. They are a nice 7-2, losing to oklahoma by 6 and TX arlington by 4. The home court advantage is extremely valuable in CBB, and ole miss rolls in to town at an impressive 8-2. Their two loses both came on the rad against george mason (6) and seton hall (12). Both teams have played an average schedule so far. This game should be a good one from start to finish, both teams are hungry for a solid win. Memphis is 3-4 ATS so far, and Ole Miss is 5-4. Overall both teams seem to be evenly matched: Memph is AVG 78 ppg, and allowing 66, while miss averages 75 while allowing 67. I like the tigers to knock off the rebels tonight at home, by around 6-7.
Murray State -2.5 vs Southern Illinois: SI comes into town at 9-2 to play the 5-5 racers on friday. If we just look at records, the easy play would be SI, lets look into some details that changed my opinion: Murray is 3-1 at home this season, averaging around 74 ppg. Ive preached all season that home court advantage holds major value when playing the spread. Murray has the upper hand in location, and motivation - two of the biggest factors when i consider a play. Another trend that i noticed was out of the 11 games SI has played only 3 have been on the road. They have won all three, but 2 victories by small margins: sam houston state (5), portland (1). They seem to struggle more on the road than anything, and i think that opens the door for murray to knock them off tonight. the racers are 4-4 ATS, and SI is 4-5 - the free throw battle is won by murray tonight, which pushes them to the victory and they win by 9.
Long Beach State +14 @ Oregon: Although the ducks are playing at home tonight, i believe that LBSU is a team that plays up to their competition - they can always beat the better team on any night. The main reason for this play was the large spread that vegas has given. The 49er's are an impressive 8-2-1 ATS so far this season, while oregon is 3-4. I like those numbers a whole lot. LBSU hits nearly 9 threes per game while oregon only hits 6-7, a 6 to 9 point difference is huge for a 14 point spread. I might even play the money line on this one tonight at +750, high risk low reward there. Another big factor is the fact that LB is perfect against the spread on the road this year, and i dont think that changes tonight. Oregon will come out hot because of the home crowd. Lets take a look at the ducks last four games: Win vs. UC Irvine (15), loss @ boise (2), win @ navy (20), and loss at unlv (11). On the other hand LBSU's last four games look like such: W vs. Tampa (27), loss @ pepperdine (2), loss @ UCLA (7), and a victory vs New Mexico state (14). Another important note is the fact that of the 6 losses so far this year for the 49ers five of them have been by 7 or less. They compete well.
goodluck
-ville
