Season Record (6-5)
1-1 on the night as long beach state wins SU against CSU and north texas shits the bed against texas arlington. Congrats to those who stuck to their guns and picked the obviously better team!
Two plays for tomorrow:
Maryland -24.5 vs. St. Francis (PA): The terps come back home after losing at UNC tuesday and face off against an extremely outcoached & outmatched team. Notre Dame beat St. F by 31 in november, and since then they have lost to Kent State by 19 & MD Eastern Shore by 13. Typically i would say theres no motivation for the fav in a game like this, but i think that MD is still pissed off about the tarheels knocking them off a few days ago. Players, Coaching, Atmosphere, Emotion, and the location of the are all in marylands favor. Go terps -
Siena -10 vs. Manhattan: This one required no in depth research, after i looked at the recent performance of both teams Siena was the obvious choice. They have played Duke & Wisc, and that prepared them well for their normal caliber level opponents like Radford & Bryant. They also just lost by 1 point @ cornell, which im sure left a bad taste in their mouth. A motivated team is a dangerous team!! Manhattan has struggled to keep it close in all three of their loses (29,13,23) and the win they got was only by 2. Manhattan may hang around in the first half because they need a solid win to get the ball rolling, 99% of the time the better team wins, and has the advantage of shooting free throws at the end if they are winning & the game is close.
Hope yall picked em right tonight, cheers to this weekends cold beer and college basketball.
-ville
1-1 on the night as long beach state wins SU against CSU and north texas shits the bed against texas arlington. Congrats to those who stuck to their guns and picked the obviously better team!
Two plays for tomorrow:
Maryland -24.5 vs. St. Francis (PA): The terps come back home after losing at UNC tuesday and face off against an extremely outcoached & outmatched team. Notre Dame beat St. F by 31 in november, and since then they have lost to Kent State by 19 & MD Eastern Shore by 13. Typically i would say theres no motivation for the fav in a game like this, but i think that MD is still pissed off about the tarheels knocking them off a few days ago. Players, Coaching, Atmosphere, Emotion, and the location of the are all in marylands favor. Go terps -
Siena -10 vs. Manhattan: This one required no in depth research, after i looked at the recent performance of both teams Siena was the obvious choice. They have played Duke & Wisc, and that prepared them well for their normal caliber level opponents like Radford & Bryant. They also just lost by 1 point @ cornell, which im sure left a bad taste in their mouth. A motivated team is a dangerous team!! Manhattan has struggled to keep it close in all three of their loses (29,13,23) and the win they got was only by 2. Manhattan may hang around in the first half because they need a solid win to get the ball rolling, 99% of the time the better team wins, and has the advantage of shooting free throws at the end if they are winning & the game is close.
Hope yall picked em right tonight, cheers to this weekends cold beer and college basketball.
-ville
adding for today:
(#) = amount of points won or lost by
Alabama -13.5 @ Southern Miss: the golden eagles may have been able to pull their weight in football this year, basketball is a different story. They are 0-5 and have no momentum, their last four losses were @ troy (10), @ morehead state (16), vs. William Carey (6) and what i believe to be their worst lost at home against vs. Jackson St (18). Bama on the other hand, whos record is not overly impressive has competed against quality competition and won. This will be their fourth straight road game tonight, their last 4 games played out like so: Win @ notre dame (1), Win @ wichita state (4), Loss @ Xavier (19), and finally Win vs/ Louisiana Lafayette (12). Normally i would be worried about carelessness and fatigue on game 4 of a 5 game road trip, but the last time they played was Sunday. With a full week of recovery and being home for a bit, the crimson tide should be refreshed and ready to play ball tonight. Bama has the advantage in players, coaching, recent performance, and atmosphere (i highly doubt a game at SM will be crazy on a friday night). The x-factor for me was the impressive road victories over good teams with recognized programs. There will be some emotional factor in 1H leading to a close played 20 mins. Bama's lead should be around 8, and in the second half the better team should show, especially since the nerves will have calmed down. Roll Tide!!
UNLV +2 vs. Oregon: there were a few factors that played into this one: Location, Emotion, and the recent misleading low line spreads for favorites that have lost in the past couple days (UK, Mich St, Ok St, Cuse). The undefeated ducks travel to vegas to take on a 6-1 UNLV team that in all honesty hasnt had any impressive wins so far. Here is their last four game outcomes: Win vs. Prairie View A&M (18), Win vs. Indiana (3), Win @ Chaminade (20), and a loss @ UCLA (2). We obviously saw yesterday vs. UK that the bruins are solid at home. They also proved that a motivated team can be very dangerous! UNLV can score some points, in each of their games they have put up 70 or more with an AVG of 83. Oregon on the other hand has played a cupcake schedule IMO with some victories that are less than impressive, their last four games played out like this: Win vs. Fresno St (5), Win vs. Ark State (23), Win vs. Valpo (6), Win vs. Savannah St (18). Playing at home against the number 15 team in the country should be more than enough motivation, but if its not: Oregon has beaten UNLV in their last two meetings. I actually believe the one loss UNLV has will help them in this game, more than hurt them, the pressure is off and they can just go out and play ball. Other than routine factors such as location, players, ect..there is one x-factor for me: Oregon has not played a single road game all year. All six games were at home, so they havent been exposed to an atmosphere which would effect their gameplay. Look for UNLV to come out & take a 10 point lead early in the 1H and oregon to cut it within 5-6 headed into half. The ducks will be in unfamiliar territory if they are down, and i would imagine they would come out and tie or take the lead back within the first 6 minutes. UNLV will use their ability to score points in a hurry, and the home crowd to take over the game late in the 2H.
Elon/FIU Over 146: In the three games Elon has won, they have scored totals of 103, 79, and 84. Apparently the money is on them this morning, and if i was to wager that would be the play. IMO this game has no middle ground for the total, either its significantly under or it goes into the 160's. Elon shoots almost 72% free throws, gets 13 offensive boards a game, and makes an impressive 9-10 three's per game. FIU wont back down, they will play them close until the end and hopefully run the score up in the 80's. The golden panthers take more quality shots (or make more lol) than tonights opponent: 47% -> 43% and make three less outside shots per game. In order to compensate the difference, they will need to score more than their AVG of 70 to compete. Should be a fun one to watch! My prediction is Elon 84 FIU 78.
Goodluck with all your plays today, time to start looking at tomorrow already!
-ville
(#) = amount of points won or lost by
Alabama -13.5 @ Southern Miss: the golden eagles may have been able to pull their weight in football this year, basketball is a different story. They are 0-5 and have no momentum, their last four losses were @ troy (10), @ morehead state (16), vs. William Carey (6) and what i believe to be their worst lost at home against vs. Jackson St (18). Bama on the other hand, whos record is not overly impressive has competed against quality competition and won. This will be their fourth straight road game tonight, their last 4 games played out like so: Win @ notre dame (1), Win @ wichita state (4), Loss @ Xavier (19), and finally Win vs/ Louisiana Lafayette (12). Normally i would be worried about carelessness and fatigue on game 4 of a 5 game road trip, but the last time they played was Sunday. With a full week of recovery and being home for a bit, the crimson tide should be refreshed and ready to play ball tonight. Bama has the advantage in players, coaching, recent performance, and atmosphere (i highly doubt a game at SM will be crazy on a friday night). The x-factor for me was the impressive road victories over good teams with recognized programs. There will be some emotional factor in 1H leading to a close played 20 mins. Bama's lead should be around 8, and in the second half the better team should show, especially since the nerves will have calmed down. Roll Tide!!
UNLV +2 vs. Oregon: there were a few factors that played into this one: Location, Emotion, and the recent misleading low line spreads for favorites that have lost in the past couple days (UK, Mich St, Ok St, Cuse). The undefeated ducks travel to vegas to take on a 6-1 UNLV team that in all honesty hasnt had any impressive wins so far. Here is their last four game outcomes: Win vs. Prairie View A&M (18), Win vs. Indiana (3), Win @ Chaminade (20), and a loss @ UCLA (2). We obviously saw yesterday vs. UK that the bruins are solid at home. They also proved that a motivated team can be very dangerous! UNLV can score some points, in each of their games they have put up 70 or more with an AVG of 83. Oregon on the other hand has played a cupcake schedule IMO with some victories that are less than impressive, their last four games played out like this: Win vs. Fresno St (5), Win vs. Ark State (23), Win vs. Valpo (6), Win vs. Savannah St (18). Playing at home against the number 15 team in the country should be more than enough motivation, but if its not: Oregon has beaten UNLV in their last two meetings. I actually believe the one loss UNLV has will help them in this game, more than hurt them, the pressure is off and they can just go out and play ball. Other than routine factors such as location, players, ect..there is one x-factor for me: Oregon has not played a single road game all year. All six games were at home, so they havent been exposed to an atmosphere which would effect their gameplay. Look for UNLV to come out & take a 10 point lead early in the 1H and oregon to cut it within 5-6 headed into half. The ducks will be in unfamiliar territory if they are down, and i would imagine they would come out and tie or take the lead back within the first 6 minutes. UNLV will use their ability to score points in a hurry, and the home crowd to take over the game late in the 2H.
Elon/FIU Over 146: In the three games Elon has won, they have scored totals of 103, 79, and 84. Apparently the money is on them this morning, and if i was to wager that would be the play. IMO this game has no middle ground for the total, either its significantly under or it goes into the 160's. Elon shoots almost 72% free throws, gets 13 offensive boards a game, and makes an impressive 9-10 three's per game. FIU wont back down, they will play them close until the end and hopefully run the score up in the 80's. The golden panthers take more quality shots (or make more lol) than tonights opponent: 47% -> 43% and make three less outside shots per game. In order to compensate the difference, they will need to score more than their AVG of 70 to compete. Should be a fun one to watch! My prediction is Elon 84 FIU 78.
Goodluck with all your plays today, time to start looking at tomorrow already!
-ville
thanks i appreciate it, i try to just point out easy to read factors that a mathematical system doesnt. With that being said, i thought i was going to out of town tonight, some plans changed so i was able to sit down and review some more game & i have some afternoon action:
Wright St +2 vs. Georgia St: Mid day money is being put on the 3-2 panthers of GSU, which is fine by me. The line has changed from a PK to -2 in the last 24 hours. The core factors that played into this one were: Strength of Schedule, Location, atmosphere, and emotion. Neither team is overly impressive or has a major edge in this one, wright st has played much better teams, which will help them during tough in-game situations when the most experienced team has the edge. Lets take a look at wright states last four outings: Win vs. Albion (18), bad loss @ george mason (37), Win vs. Mt St Joseph (14) and finally a loss @ UK (15). Its important to note that they have also sqaured off against Northern Illinois, South Dakota, and CSU Northridge (SOS). On the other hand georgia state has played two less games than wright, and and even less impressive schedule, the last 4 games are as such: Loss @ UAB (7), Win vs. IUPUI (6), loss @ mississippi (9), and a victory at home vs Emmanuel (19). The first team they played was middle georgia state, which i had no idea existed until tonight, and im sure their basketball program isnt that impressive. One outside factor that needs to be mentioned is the two loses GSU suffered were on the road with atleast 4-5 days of rest. If youre not ready to play after a weeks recovery, it says something about the coaches ability to keep the team motivated and focused. This is the first game of a much more difficult schedule for GSU, and i believe wright will sneak in and win this game. The x-factor for me was the fact that wright has played in environments much tougher than the ones they will normally see, which again helps them with in game management. With the last game at home being a double digit win, the ball is rolling and wright will come out with the mission to break down their opponent. Should stay close most of the game, with various runs from both sides but a 7-8 W for wright seems about "right" lol
Best of luck to everyone tonight, feel free to comment anytime! Thanks
Ville
Money, thanks for the nice words! Yeah the SOS was the big one here for me. Lots of value in playing good teams early.
Final Play for the night is listed below, I dot have much time for a write up sorry!!
Kansas State +2.5 @ Georgia: The last two games for KSU have been rough, loss to UNC (10) and a small margin victory at home South Carolina state. It's safe to say that there was no motivation after keeping it close against the Tar Heels & coming up short, that would be extremely disappointing. The first four victories were solid wins against low-mid level competition, there were signs of consistency within that stretch and I think that KSU has the advantage in: coaching, emotion, and discipline. UGA is a good team, but haven't had a anything close to a blowout victory, they just sort of slip by. Their losses include chatanooga and seton hall. The X factor here was: the recent poor play of KSU has raised some questions about the season, with a solid coaching staff that I guarantee was in the players asses before this game, which will give them the edge mentally and with situational awareness. KSU wins by 11
-ville
Season Record: 9-6
6 out of 7 games complete for the night, so far 4-2 with UNLV +2 pending.
I have to work tomorrow until 3 or so while the games are going on so i went ahead and did my research. Here what i like for tomorrow:
Purdue -14.5 vs. New Mexico: Purdue is a top 15 ball team, no doubt. We saw the way they were able to control the temp @ pitt to get the win by 13. Other notable wins are over Florida (15) and old dominion (22). The boilermakers are competing at a very high level and have momentum headed into this one. On the other hand USC knocked off NM by 8 two or so weeks ago to give them their one and only loss. The least impressive game that should be noted is the 12 point win over Nichols state right after losing to southern cal. Location, atmosphere, coachinng, experience, players and all the works point in the direction of Purdue so im gonna take a chance & say they're 15 or more pts better than NM.
William & Mary +13.5 @ Virginia: riskiest play of the day if you ask me, but thats the beauty of CBB, anything can happen and like united told me once college hoops are weird sometimes. There is so much truth in that statement its ridiculous. What i saw here was an underrated WM team that hasnt earned respect from oddsmakers yet, which makes them valuable (to us atleast). The two games that they have lost were by a combined grand of total of 5 points. I can play devils advocate , and see why those loses against lower level teams could be concerning. My money is on the ability of WM to keep it close and in order to challenge their opponent. Emotions are running high on both ends and iwoudlnt be surpised to see this game go over. Advantages for WM: Motivation and the will to play up to their opponent, Knocking off old dominion at home has re-vitalized this team who is severly underrrated.
Northeastern -4.5 @ Detroit:NE is a solid team, and they convered for me the other night so i liek my chances here. Detroit is horrible and there will be no motivation to win. The classic matchup that alot of people overlook. Lots of value in making a national presence.
Duke -24 vs Buffalo: after demolishing IU in their last game, duke has finally found themselves in a position where they can shine again. Duke has played well since the UK loss a few weeks back. Players, coaches, location, and the desire to beat the hell out of anyone in their way wis what convinced me.
Morehead St 13 @ Indiana: if youve been paying any attention to CBB over the last few years, youve noticed that IU constantly under-performs. Tom Crean is on a never ending hot seat and by the looks of it this could the end of the road for him if hes not careful. Although the hoosiers need a solid bounceback W, it doesnt discount the fact that morehead state has played decent teams and won, home and on the road. Any good team that IU has played has beat them, and added to the list on TC's loser list (if they werent already there). I think Indiana wins the game but by aroun 7-8 not double digits, morehead will fight and claw their way through this game and make it closer than the average joe would think. Thyeve defeated St Louis, Southern miss, marshall, and northern ky in their last 4 games and have momentum & motivation that cannot be overlooked.
Georgetown -5.5 vs. Syracuse: At first glance you might wonder why the gmen are the favorites here, especially with a 3-3 record. If you dig a little deeper into the schedules youll see that the hoyas have played top 10 teams & had chances to win in the final minutes. Losing at Duke by 2 & at Maryland by 4. Another notable game was the 10 point victory over Wisconsin. They have one bad early season loss at home vs radford that wouldnt tell the story of this team. Solid all around ball club here playing a now obviously beatable Syracuse at home. The big factor for this game is the eagerness & motivation to knock off a ranked opponent in front of the home crowd. The team, fans, and city are waiting for an explosion into the potential they know is in store if they can pull it together. I believe that starts tomorrow. .
Sorry the writeups arent my best but ive gotta get up early, GL and have a good saturday.
-ville
6 out of 7 games complete for the night, so far 4-2 with UNLV +2 pending.
I have to work tomorrow until 3 or so while the games are going on so i went ahead and did my research. Here what i like for tomorrow:
Purdue -14.5 vs. New Mexico: Purdue is a top 15 ball team, no doubt. We saw the way they were able to control the temp @ pitt to get the win by 13. Other notable wins are over Florida (15) and old dominion (22). The boilermakers are competing at a very high level and have momentum headed into this one. On the other hand USC knocked off NM by 8 two or so weeks ago to give them their one and only loss. The least impressive game that should be noted is the 12 point win over Nichols state right after losing to southern cal. Location, atmosphere, coachinng, experience, players and all the works point in the direction of Purdue so im gonna take a chance & say they're 15 or more pts better than NM.
William & Mary +13.5 @ Virginia: riskiest play of the day if you ask me, but thats the beauty of CBB, anything can happen and like united told me once college hoops are weird sometimes. There is so much truth in that statement its ridiculous. What i saw here was an underrated WM team that hasnt earned respect from oddsmakers yet, which makes them valuable (to us atleast). The two games that they have lost were by a combined grand of total of 5 points. I can play devils advocate , and see why those loses against lower level teams could be concerning. My money is on the ability of WM to keep it close and in order to challenge their opponent. Emotions are running high on both ends and iwoudlnt be surpised to see this game go over. Advantages for WM: Motivation and the will to play up to their opponent, Knocking off old dominion at home has re-vitalized this team who is severly underrrated.
Northeastern -4.5 @ Detroit:NE is a solid team, and they convered for me the other night so i liek my chances here. Detroit is horrible and there will be no motivation to win. The classic matchup that alot of people overlook. Lots of value in making a national presence.
Duke -24 vs Buffalo: after demolishing IU in their last game, duke has finally found themselves in a position where they can shine again. Duke has played well since the UK loss a few weeks back. Players, coaches, location, and the desire to beat the hell out of anyone in their way wis what convinced me.
Morehead St 13 @ Indiana: if youve been paying any attention to CBB over the last few years, youve noticed that IU constantly under-performs. Tom Crean is on a never ending hot seat and by the looks of it this could the end of the road for him if hes not careful. Although the hoosiers need a solid bounceback W, it doesnt discount the fact that morehead state has played decent teams and won, home and on the road. Any good team that IU has played has beat them, and added to the list on TC's loser list (if they werent already there). I think Indiana wins the game but by aroun 7-8 not double digits, morehead will fight and claw their way through this game and make it closer than the average joe would think. Thyeve defeated St Louis, Southern miss, marshall, and northern ky in their last 4 games and have momentum & motivation that cannot be overlooked.
Georgetown -5.5 vs. Syracuse: At first glance you might wonder why the gmen are the favorites here, especially with a 3-3 record. If you dig a little deeper into the schedules youll see that the hoyas have played top 10 teams & had chances to win in the final minutes. Losing at Duke by 2 & at Maryland by 4. Another notable game was the 10 point victory over Wisconsin. They have one bad early season loss at home vs radford that wouldnt tell the story of this team. Solid all around ball club here playing a now obviously beatable Syracuse at home. The big factor for this game is the eagerness & motivation to knock off a ranked opponent in front of the home crowd. The team, fans, and city are waiting for an explosion into the potential they know is in store if they can pull it together. I believe that starts tomorrow. .
Sorry the writeups arent my best but ive gotta get up early, GL and have a good saturday.
-ville
Another play for today:
Oklahoma St/Missouri St over 136: when Ok St wins game they score an average of roughly 83-84 points. Today they will take on a struggling team that had actually played decent competition and knows how to keep it close. I like an underdog who scores a lot and knows how to compete! When mizz St loses they are averaging about 65. I believe this will be a 11-12 point victory for Ok st. Should be a good amount of scoring going on from both sides. Missouri St wants to beat this team and will do everything in their power to make it competetitve including knocking down outside shots and free throws.
-ville
Oklahoma St/Missouri St over 136: when Ok St wins game they score an average of roughly 83-84 points. Today they will take on a struggling team that had actually played decent competition and knows how to keep it close. I like an underdog who scores a lot and knows how to compete! When mizz St loses they are averaging about 65. I believe this will be a 11-12 point victory for Ok st. Should be a good amount of scoring going on from both sides. Missouri St wants to beat this team and will do everything in their power to make it competetitve including knocking down outside shots and free throws.
-ville
