GL, Danny, but odds of +1100 means you're assigning approximately an average 74.5% probability that the Chiefs will win one game, and do so over 8 games. Football isn't coin-flipping of course, with injuries a potential wild card, and of course the pressure that will build for them not to fail. As far as I can tell, wouldn't you be better off just betting them on the ML in each game? Or failing that, not betting at all? Not arguing with you, just don't think it's a very good risk.
+1100, huh? My first reaction to this question was no f'in way, but those are decent odds with that easy schedule of theirs. At Denver and Minnesota are tough, of course, but if your parlayed the moneyline for all of these games, which of course is impossible to do, right, what would the odds be? better than +1100? proably, right?
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by WEEKENDALKI:
WHY NOT. AFTER SEEING THE CAMARADERIE THEY DISPLAYED ON A MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL HALFTIME SEGMENT, AND THE FACT THAT THEIR COACH HAS NO FLAWS, 16-0 COULD HAPPEN HERE.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
After seeing the emotion (comraderie) I started looking at going against them following their bye week. This is the NFL and you will get beat...eventually. And when emotion gets extreme that is usually about the end of it. Those guys were yuking it up and still gunning for the end-zone late in the game. Bad idea IMO
WHY NOT. AFTER SEEING THE CAMARADERIE THEY DISPLAYED ON A MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL HALFTIME SEGMENT, AND THE FACT THAT THEIR COACH HAS NO FLAWS, 16-0 COULD HAPPEN HERE.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
After seeing the emotion (comraderie) I started looking at going against them following their bye week. This is the NFL and you will get beat...eventually. And when emotion gets extreme that is usually about the end of it. Those guys were yuking it up and still gunning for the end-zone late in the game. Bad idea IMO
Jazz,
It seems to me that I would still be risking $300 right of the bat.
Is this what you mean
Game 9 - risk $300 on ML
Game 10 - risk $300 + winnings from week 9 on ML
Game 11 - Risk whole pot on ML
and so On
I think if I did this it would be pretty close to the $3300, but many books arent offering ML's on big line games like Detroit, Chicago, Cincinatti, San Diego, etc.
If I found a ML on those games it would likely be -1000 or higher anyway. The Chiefs will very likely be 12-0 and then I will consider the hedge. If they lose between games 9 and 12, I will lose $300. I can live with that, after all it won't be the first time.
It seems to me that I would still be risking $300 right of the bat.
Is this what you mean
Game 9 - risk $300 on ML
Game 10 - risk $300 + winnings from week 9 on ML
Game 11 - Risk whole pot on ML
and so On
I think if I did this it would be pretty close to the $3300, but many books arent offering ML's on big line games like Detroit, Chicago, Cincinatti, San Diego, etc.
If I found a ML on those games it would likely be -1000 or higher anyway. The Chiefs will very likely be 12-0 and then I will consider the hedge. If they lose between games 9 and 12, I will lose $300. I can live with that, after all it won't be the first time.
Michael777
Actually, the members of the 72 Dolphins still celebrate whenever a team is still undefeated going into the second half of the season, and then loses.
They also show up in droves, if that team happens to be playing the current Dolphins. They take great pride in their accomplishment and don't want to see anyone match it.
Actually, the members of the 72 Dolphins still celebrate whenever a team is still undefeated going into the second half of the season, and then loses.
They also show up in droves, if that team happens to be playing the current Dolphins. They take great pride in their accomplishment and don't want to see anyone match it.
Lou, should the list read....
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49'ers
Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals
Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
Oakland Raiders
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers
San Diego Chargers
San Francisco 49'ers
Washington Redskins
Danny: yeah, that's what I meant - you'd have to come up with some good estimates for the ML, and though the amt you could lose overall wouldn't be much less, you'd have total flexibility if you ever decided to stop the betting - here, you're committed for the first 4 or so games before you can ever try hedging.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jazz:
Danny: too late now, I was going to suggest simply betting the KC ML and creating a time-delayed parlay yourself - this way you wouldn't be risking the $330 right off the bat, instead considerably smaller amts, and you could always stop if something like an injury happened.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
If the ML is a constant -300 then the future is a better return while a constant -250 ML returns +1475. So it depends on your estimate of what the ML will be on each game.
Danny: too late now, I was going to suggest simply betting the KC ML and creating a time-delayed parlay yourself - this way you wouldn't be risking the $330 right off the bat, instead considerably smaller amts, and you could always stop if something like an injury happened.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
If the ML is a constant -300 then the future is a better return while a constant -250 ML returns +1475. So it depends on your estimate of what the ML will be on each game.
The Chiefs will not go 16-0. The Goal is to win the Superbowl, not to be 16-0. Those goals are not compatible, IMO. If, by some chance, they are 14-0, they will likely have homefield thru the playoffs clinched. Vermiel will not play the last 2 games all out. Injuries are the last thing they will need. He knows, from his Ram experience the playoffs are the thing. When the Rams were 14-1, they basically took the last game off, against Philly I believe. They were gearing for the playoffs and didn't care. That will happen again. I think the Chiefs will win the Superbowl, they're the best team in Football, but they will not go 16-0. 14-2 sounds about right.
