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Dec. 11, 2003, 11:20PM

Sugar Bowl coaches may field sweet NFL offers
By JOHN McCLAIN
Copyright 2003 Houston Chronicle

If you believe in the domino principle of firing coaches, then you are certain Dan Reeves' regime in Atlanta was the first of many that are going to be toppled after the season.
As many as nine teams could have vacancies, depending on what happens over the last three games. A couple of coaches will be given ultimatums to fire some assistants if they expect to return, so that number could be reduced to six or seven.

Almost certain to join Reeves in the unemployment line are Jim Fassel (Giants), Dick Jauron (Bears), Dave McGinnis (Cardinals), Gregg Williams (Bills) and Bill Callahan (Raiders).

On the abyss are Dave Wannstedt (Dolphins), Marty Schottenheimer (Chargers) and Steve Spurrier (Redskins), despite what Washington owner Daniel Snyder said about Spurrier returning for his third year.

The most difficult thing for an owner isn't firing the coach; it's hiring the proper replacement. Where are the coaching nuggets buried? Before we tell you about the best nugget of all, let's pay tribute to Reeves, who isn't expected to resurface with his fourth team.

Reeves has more victories than any coach who isn't enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. He's a Tom Landry protégé, an old-school coach with dignity and integrity competing with too many contemporaries who are content to primp and prance in prime time to feed their huge egos.

The evolution of NFL coaches, in which owners demand style and hope for substance, is causing recycled dinosaurs like Reeves and Schottenheimer to become extinct.

Look around the league. Owners want leaders and communicators. Knowledge and experience are beneficial but not paramount, although no owner will admit it publicly.

If you expect to be a legitimate candidate, you better not be short or fat. If you are, you better know someone with the owner's ear. Or, in the case of Philadelphia's Andy Reid, you better wait until your hired before ballooning.

Of the 32 coaches, counting Reeves' replacement Wade Phillips, only seven have won Super Bowls. Owners with vacancies are scouring the country for the next Jon Gruden, Brian Billick, Bill Belichick, Dick Vermeil, Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren and Bill Parcells.

There are too many possible candidates among NFL assistant coaches to list all of them as well as their qualifications, but there's one college coach who can name his price when he decides to move up a step.

No, not Bob Stoops. Owners have been sniffing around Stoops since he won his first national championship with Oklahoma. If he were to grow tired of coaching college football, there would be no shortage of offers. But those close to Stoops say he feeds off the college atmosphere and loves being with his family at night, which rules out the NFL.

NFL coaches work so many hours they don't recognize their kids. Some don't even know they have kids.

The college coach we're talking about is Nick Saban, who leads LSU into the national championship game against Stoops and the Sooners.

Veteran scouts, personnel directors and general managers -- those who spend a lot of time watching college games -- say they can't remember a college coach who has just about everyone convinced he'll be successful at the next level.

Saban got his NFL break in 1988 when Jerry Glanville hired him to coach the Oilers' defensive backs. Saban stayed two years and earned the respect of just about everyone in the organization.

Some of his players called him "Nick Satan" because he could be so demanding, but that was a characteristic that impressed then-general manager Mike Holovak. At times, Holovak would sit in the back of the room during position meetings to see how the assistants communicated and interacted with the players.

Holovak became a huge Saban fan, as did linebackers coach, Floyd Reese, who is Titans general manager. Holovak and Reese liked Saban's knowledge of the game, the way he communicated with the players and the way he demanded discipline from them on and off the field.

Holovak and Reese were among the first to predict Saban would become a great head coach if given the right opportunity in college or the NFL.

Saban was hired by the University of Toledo before Glanville was run out of town. After a season at Toledo, he was hired as Cleveland's defensive coordinator under Belichick.

Saban spent four seasons (1991-94) with the Browns and earned a reputation as a shrewd tactician who got the maximum out of his players.

When he was the head coach at Michigan State, Saban was pursued by some NFL teams but rejected them. Since he turned LSU into a perennial powerhouse, Saban's name has been on just about every list of potential NFL candidates.

Those close to Saban insist he loves coaching the Tigers and residing in Baton Rouge. They say he believes there's more security in a top college job than there is in the NFL. Whenever he's asked about the NFL -- every time he's in front of the media, actually -- Saban says all the right things.

Sure Saban's happy at LSU. Why shouldn't he be? He's treated like royalty by devoted fans who worship at his coaching altar. But one reason he's been so successful is his competitiveness, his will to win.

Unlike Stoops, who has never coached in the NFL, Saban played a significant role in helping two teams make the playoffs. He was part of two solid coaching staffs. He knows what it takes to win in the NFL.

When Saban decides he's ready for a new challenge, he can name his price. He's got Jimmy Sexton, agent to the coaching stars, to be his buffer. Sexton negotiated Dom Capers' contract with the Texans and Bill Parcells' deal with the Cowboys, among others. Whenever Saban gives Sexton the go-ahead -- whether after this season or in five seasons -- the offers will pour in.

If the going rate of an elite NFL coach is $5 million a year and a lot of power within the organization, Saban can expect that kind of deal. He could become the NFL's first coach to earn $6 million a year.

Before Saban takes that leap, he'll have to be in the best possible situation to succeed. That situation will have to include the right kind of owner, a patient one who spends money to hire good people, then lets them do their jobs.

It says here that, at some point, Saban finally will accept an offer to coach an NFL team. He'll win a national championship at LSU -- maybe two or three. It's just a matter of who, when and how many Brinks trucks it'll take to cart his millions to the bank.

John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle. His column appears Fridays.



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John McClain's Picks
America's Line McClain's pick
Houston (5-8) plus-10 at Tampa Bay (6-7) Bucs 20-7
Dallas (8-5) minus-1 at Washington (5-8) Cowboys 20-16
Jacksonville (4-9) plus-7 at New England (11-2) Patriots 23-20
Pittsburgh (5-8) plus-3 at NY Jets (5-8) Jets 21-20
San Francisco (6-7) plus-2 1/2 at Cincinnati (7-6) Bengals 24-20
Atlanta (3-10) plus-7 1/2 at Indianapolis (10-3) Colts 27-23
Minnesota (8-5) minus-3 at Chicago (5-8) Vikings 23-21
Buffalo (6-7) plus-6 at Tennessee (9-4) Titans 20-19
Seattle (8-5) plus-7 at St. Louis (10-3) Rams 30-20
Detroit (4-9) plus-14 at Kansas City (11-2) Chiefs 37-13
Cleveland (4-9) plus-10 1/2 at Denver (8-5) Broncos 24-17
Baltimore (8-5) minus-6 1/2 at Oakland (3-10) Ravens 20-17
Carolina (8-5) minus-6 1/2 at Arizona (3-10) Panthers 24-20
Green Bay (7-6) minus-5 at San Diego (3-10) Packers 20-17
NY Giants (4-9) plus-7 at New Orleans (6-7) Saints 27-23
Philadelphia (10-3) plus-1 1/2 at Miami (8-5) Dolphins 20-16

·Last week: 11-5 straight up, 7-9 against spread.

·Season: 134-74 straight up, 104-94-10 against spread.
 

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