AFC, NFC title games a pair of intriguing matchups
By JOHN McCLAIN
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle
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ABOUT THE WRITER: John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle.
On Sunday night, Houston will find out which teams the city will host in Super Bowl XXXVIII. What do you believe is the perfect game for Super Sunday, when a worldwide audience will be focused on Reliant Stadium?
Indianapolis plays at New England in the AFC Championship Game. Carolina visits Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. Which teams do you want to win to set up the best possible game on Feb. 1?
Nothing against Carolina, but if Super Bowl XXXVIII features Philadelphia against New England or Indianapolis, few will complain. But if it's the Panthers against the Patriots or Colts, the Super Bowl almost will be anticlimactic to the AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs. Eagles is a confrontation between teams that earned home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Colts vs. Eagles is a matchup of two of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, both of whom have been outstanding in the playoffs.
Patriots or Colts vs. Panthers might turn out to be a superb game, perhaps even the greatest in history, but on the Richter scale of hype it might barely register.
That's what the Super Bowl is about, hype, right? It's easy to hype Manning and Tom Brady. Manning is on the kind of incredible hot streak that might close a casino in Vegas. All Brady does is win. But it's easier to hype them against the Eagles, who haven't won an NFL title since 1960 when they dealt Vince Lombardi his only championship game loss with Green Bay.
All four teams are on a roll. The Patriots have a 13-game winning streak. If they defeat the Colts, they will tie the 1972 unbeaten Dolphins, the only team to win 14 in a row.
The Eagles have won 11 of 12, the Colts nine of 12 and the Panthers seven of 10. Put those streaks together, and they're a combined 40-7.
All but Carolina have recent playoff experience. New England is trying to win its second Super Bowl in three years. Philadelphia is playing in a third consecutive NFC Championship Game and is trying to avoid becoming the first in history to lose back-to-back games at home. Indianapolis made the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.
No matter what happens at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the AFC Championship Game might be better than the Super Bowl. The Patriots allowed the fewest points in the league. They are 9-0 at Gillette Stadium and have allowed only 5.1 points during their last seven games.
It would be too much to ask for the Patriots and Colts to produce a finish like the one at the RCA Dome, where New England escaped with a 38-34 victory when outside linebacker Willie McGinest stopped running back Edgerrin James for a one-yard loss on fourth down.
Manning is getting more attention than Brady after leaving a vapor trail through the Broncos and Chiefs. Manning's passer rating of 156.9 is the highest in NFL history through two playoff games.
As great as Manning has played, he's still two playoff victories shy of Brady, who is 4-0 in the postseason. Brady beat Tennessee's Steve McNair, the NFL's co-MVP. Now Brady can defeat Manning, the other co-MVP.
Manning and McNair are ticketed for Hawaii to play in the Pro Bowl. Brady wasn't voted to the team, but his consolation prize might be a second Super Bowl ring in three years.
Brady has become the best big-game quarterback in the league, even though his stats don't reflect it. He's unbeaten in overtime games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home this season. Brady just doesn't make many mistakes.
When Brady does make a mistake, he rarely puts the defense in bad field position. The best way to defeat Indianapolis is to control the ball. New England has a mediocre running game, but Brady spreads the ball all over the field to help move the chains.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball against the Colts. The Chiefs generated 408 yards in the divisional loss to Indianapolis. Kansas City moved the ball so well it didn't have to punt.
But the Colts haven't punted since the regular season. Punter Hunter Smith refers to himself as the NFL's "least valuable player."
If the AFC Championship Game isn't the best game Sunday, a lot of experts are going to be surprised.
At Philadelphia, the Eagles have suffered more season-ending injuries to key players than the Patriots, but New England has done a more effective job of publicizing them. Bill Belichick was voted NFL Coach of the Year. The Eagles' Andy Reid should have been second but wasn't.
Reid has done an exceptional job. Philadelphia started 0-2 after losing at home to Tampa Bay and New England. Fans in the City of Brotherly Love were howling for his scalp. Reid and McNabb were blasted by fans and media, but neither lost his composure or his confidence.
As players began to fall like autumn leaves, Reid never flinched. He and his superb staff continued to outcoach most opponents. When McNabb got healthy, the Eagles took off and put together one of their most impressive seasons.
What makes the Eagles' appearance in the NFC Championship Game unusual is that they can't stop the run. How many times have you heard that defenses have to stop the run in order to win? Not true if you play for Philadelphia.
The Eagles have surrendered at least 200 yards rushing three times, including 210 in the divisional-round victory over Green Bay. They've allowed at least 150 yards seven times. A back has reached the century mark in eight games.
Despite being soft against the run, the Eagles are 2-1 when surrendering 200 yards, 6-1 when giving up 150 and 7-1 when allowing an opponent to reach triple digits.
The Eagles are 11-1 over their last 12 games, but during that stretch, they're allowing 161.9 yards rushing and a 5.3-yard average per carry.
Who needs to stop the run? Certainly not the Eagles.
The Panthers shouldn't be too worried if running back Stephen Davis can't play because of a pulled thigh muscle. His backup, DeShaun Foster, came off the bench to rush for 95 yards in the upset at St. Louis. And truthfully, it wouldn't matter if they combined for 150. Odds are that they will lose to Philadelphia.
Of the four quarterbacks starting Sunday, only Carolina's Jake Delhomme has thrown an interception in the playoffs. But he also engineered victories over Dallas and St. Louis. Playing at Philadelphia won't intimidate the Panthers because they've won more games by three or fewer points than any team in history.
It's hard to explain, but it says here the NFC Championship Game will be more exciting. Why? Because no one expects it to be.
So bring on the new M & M Twins -- McNabb and Manning.
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John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle. His column appears Fridays.
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McClain's picks
America's Line McClain's pick
Carolina (13-5) plus-4 1/2 at Philadelphia (13-4) Eagles 27-20
Indianapolis (14-4) plus-3 at New England (15-2) Patriots 21-20
·Last week: 2-2 straight up, 0-4 against spread.
·Season: 176-88 straight up, 128-126-10 against spead.
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By JOHN McCLAIN
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABOUT THE WRITER: John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle.
On Sunday night, Houston will find out which teams the city will host in Super Bowl XXXVIII. What do you believe is the perfect game for Super Sunday, when a worldwide audience will be focused on Reliant Stadium?
Indianapolis plays at New England in the AFC Championship Game. Carolina visits Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game. Which teams do you want to win to set up the best possible game on Feb. 1?
Nothing against Carolina, but if Super Bowl XXXVIII features Philadelphia against New England or Indianapolis, few will complain. But if it's the Panthers against the Patriots or Colts, the Super Bowl almost will be anticlimactic to the AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs. Eagles is a confrontation between teams that earned home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Colts vs. Eagles is a matchup of two of the NFL's best quarterbacks in Peyton Manning and Donovan McNabb, both of whom have been outstanding in the playoffs.
Patriots or Colts vs. Panthers might turn out to be a superb game, perhaps even the greatest in history, but on the Richter scale of hype it might barely register.
That's what the Super Bowl is about, hype, right? It's easy to hype Manning and Tom Brady. Manning is on the kind of incredible hot streak that might close a casino in Vegas. All Brady does is win. But it's easier to hype them against the Eagles, who haven't won an NFL title since 1960 when they dealt Vince Lombardi his only championship game loss with Green Bay.
All four teams are on a roll. The Patriots have a 13-game winning streak. If they defeat the Colts, they will tie the 1972 unbeaten Dolphins, the only team to win 14 in a row.
The Eagles have won 11 of 12, the Colts nine of 12 and the Panthers seven of 10. Put those streaks together, and they're a combined 40-7.
All but Carolina have recent playoff experience. New England is trying to win its second Super Bowl in three years. Philadelphia is playing in a third consecutive NFC Championship Game and is trying to avoid becoming the first in history to lose back-to-back games at home. Indianapolis made the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.
No matter what happens at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, the AFC Championship Game might be better than the Super Bowl. The Patriots allowed the fewest points in the league. They are 9-0 at Gillette Stadium and have allowed only 5.1 points during their last seven games.
It would be too much to ask for the Patriots and Colts to produce a finish like the one at the RCA Dome, where New England escaped with a 38-34 victory when outside linebacker Willie McGinest stopped running back Edgerrin James for a one-yard loss on fourth down.
Manning is getting more attention than Brady after leaving a vapor trail through the Broncos and Chiefs. Manning's passer rating of 156.9 is the highest in NFL history through two playoff games.
As great as Manning has played, he's still two playoff victories shy of Brady, who is 4-0 in the postseason. Brady beat Tennessee's Steve McNair, the NFL's co-MVP. Now Brady can defeat Manning, the other co-MVP.
Manning and McNair are ticketed for Hawaii to play in the Pro Bowl. Brady wasn't voted to the team, but his consolation prize might be a second Super Bowl ring in three years.
Brady has become the best big-game quarterback in the league, even though his stats don't reflect it. He's unbeaten in overtime games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home this season. Brady just doesn't make many mistakes.
When Brady does make a mistake, he rarely puts the defense in bad field position. The best way to defeat Indianapolis is to control the ball. New England has a mediocre running game, but Brady spreads the ball all over the field to help move the chains.
The Patriots should be able to move the ball against the Colts. The Chiefs generated 408 yards in the divisional loss to Indianapolis. Kansas City moved the ball so well it didn't have to punt.
But the Colts haven't punted since the regular season. Punter Hunter Smith refers to himself as the NFL's "least valuable player."
If the AFC Championship Game isn't the best game Sunday, a lot of experts are going to be surprised.
At Philadelphia, the Eagles have suffered more season-ending injuries to key players than the Patriots, but New England has done a more effective job of publicizing them. Bill Belichick was voted NFL Coach of the Year. The Eagles' Andy Reid should have been second but wasn't.
Reid has done an exceptional job. Philadelphia started 0-2 after losing at home to Tampa Bay and New England. Fans in the City of Brotherly Love were howling for his scalp. Reid and McNabb were blasted by fans and media, but neither lost his composure or his confidence.
As players began to fall like autumn leaves, Reid never flinched. He and his superb staff continued to outcoach most opponents. When McNabb got healthy, the Eagles took off and put together one of their most impressive seasons.
What makes the Eagles' appearance in the NFC Championship Game unusual is that they can't stop the run. How many times have you heard that defenses have to stop the run in order to win? Not true if you play for Philadelphia.
The Eagles have surrendered at least 200 yards rushing three times, including 210 in the divisional-round victory over Green Bay. They've allowed at least 150 yards seven times. A back has reached the century mark in eight games.
Despite being soft against the run, the Eagles are 2-1 when surrendering 200 yards, 6-1 when giving up 150 and 7-1 when allowing an opponent to reach triple digits.
The Eagles are 11-1 over their last 12 games, but during that stretch, they're allowing 161.9 yards rushing and a 5.3-yard average per carry.
Who needs to stop the run? Certainly not the Eagles.
The Panthers shouldn't be too worried if running back Stephen Davis can't play because of a pulled thigh muscle. His backup, DeShaun Foster, came off the bench to rush for 95 yards in the upset at St. Louis. And truthfully, it wouldn't matter if they combined for 150. Odds are that they will lose to Philadelphia.
Of the four quarterbacks starting Sunday, only Carolina's Jake Delhomme has thrown an interception in the playoffs. But he also engineered victories over Dallas and St. Louis. Playing at Philadelphia won't intimidate the Panthers because they've won more games by three or fewer points than any team in history.
It's hard to explain, but it says here the NFC Championship Game will be more exciting. Why? Because no one expects it to be.
So bring on the new M & M Twins -- McNabb and Manning.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
John McClain covers the NFL for the Chronicle. His column appears Fridays.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McClain's picks
America's Line McClain's pick
Carolina (13-5) plus-4 1/2 at Philadelphia (13-4) Eagles 27-20
Indianapolis (14-4) plus-3 at New England (15-2) Patriots 21-20
·Last week: 2-2 straight up, 0-4 against spread.
·Season: 176-88 straight up, 128-126-10 against spead.
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