New NFL odds don’t paint pretty picture for Raiders
LV Review Journal Subscription4/12/23
After the Raiders won 10 games and made the playoffs in 2021, they slid to 6-11 last season and oddsmakers don’t expect them to be much better this year.
Caesars Sportsbook recently posted NFL regular season win totals and division and playoff odds. The Raiders’ win total is 7½, with under a -140 favorite, after they went under 8½ last season.
“A lot of people were expecting them to get back to the playoffs last season and it didn’t happen. There are definitely some lower expectations than last season,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “They play in a tough division. They have a very tough schedule and there are a lot of question marks.
“But you never know. Sometimes when expectations are lower, the pressure’s off.”
The Raiders, who most notably parted ways with quarterback Derek Carr and tight end Darren Waller and signed QB Jimmy Garoppolo, are +350 to make the playoffs and -430 to miss them.
“They’ll probably need at least nine wins to get to the playoffs,” Pullen said. “The quarterback position is sort of a wash. Carr didn’t have his best year last year. The jury’s still out on Garoppolo. We’ll see if he can stay healthy. He’s serviceable. He got to a Super Bowl. But he’s not the guy that’s going to throw consistently for 300-plus yards every game.
“Maybe they’ll focus more on the running game. They’ve got a great running back with (Josh) Jacobs.”
The Raiders are the 12-1 long shots to win the AFC West, where the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are the -150 favorites to claim their eighth straight division title. The Chargers are +340 and the Broncos are +450 in their first season under Super Bowl-winning coach Sean Payton.
“We’re a huge loser in division futures already. So far, all the action’s been on the Raiders,” Pullen said. “No matter what we put up in Nevada, we’re going to get heavy Raiders action and it’s going to be a big liability for us.”
Caesars also has posted NFL awards odds. Garoppolo is 15-1 to be Comeback Player of the Year and 100-1 to be MVP. Wide receiver Davante Adams is 150-1 to win the MVP award and Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby are each 300-1.
Crosby is the 12-1 fifth choice to win the Defensive Player of the Year award and Josh McDaniels is 30-1 to earn Coach of the Year honors.
The Chiefs (11½, o-115) lead a pack of five teams with double-digit win totals. The others are the Bengals (11½, u-125), 49ers (11½, u-155), Eagles (10½, o-130) and Bills (10½, o-125).
“The Chiefs are the defending champions. There’s no reason to discount them until we see otherwise,” Pullen said. “They’ve been the most consistent team for quite some time and have won two Super Bowls.”
Early sharp action at Caesars in Nevada has been on the Ravens over 8½, which is -135 after opening at -120, and on the Buccaneers under 6½, which is -110 after opening at -105.
Thirteen of the Raiders’ 17 games are against teams with win totals of 8½ or more, including six division meetings with the Chiefs, Chargers (9½, o-115) and Broncos (8½, o-115). They’ll also play the Bills, Jets (9½, o-125), Dolphins (9½, u-130), Lions (9½, o-130), Vikings (8½, o-125), Steelers (8½, o-115) and Giants (8½ u-145).
“A lot can happen between now and kickoff in Week 1. We’ll see how teams help themselves in the draft,” Pullen said. “The NFL win totals didn’t used to go up pre-draft. This is definitely the earliest we’ve put these out.
“Stuff is coming out earlier and earlier as the years go by. The NFL season, there’s never an offseason. It’s always at the forefront of people’s minds and what people want to talk about.”
