Jets at Pats -6

bblight · Oct 19, 2004

By the numbers, these two teams appear to be evenly matched:

The Patriots are a good team that usually play down to the level of their opponent. The combined record of their opponents is 10-16:they've played two teams with winning records, Indy and Seattle;

The Jets are a good team that have played their best ball week to week. The combined record of their opponents is 6-21; the Jets haven't played a team with a winning record.

The Jets might not be as good as their record suggests.

There is a long history of friendly rivalry between these two teams.

Tom Brady can thank the Jets for where he is now - the Jets are the team that injured Drew Bledsoe, allowing Mr Brady to go on to bigger and better things.

These two teams know each other very well, but the Jets have never had to face a potent Pats running game, so their defense might not be as good vs the Pats as it has been in the past.

This will also be a battle to determine the division leader as well as to set another NFL record.

Take the Pats -6

jaypaw · Oct 20, 2004

If they are evenly matched why take the pats?

LEYKIS101 · Oct 20, 2004

Jaypaw,

Like your picks this week. I think Atl + has good value. Really like the Jets though. I think they sleepwalked past the 49ers and were pointing to this game. It's tough to go against the Pats, but they were tested hard last week by SEA, regardless of how easy the score made it seem. The 6+ points with the Jets seems to be the right side.

Good luck

:suomi:

bblight · Oct 20, 2004

I said that "by the numbers these two teams APPEAR to be evenly matched"

The Jets record has been compiled against teams with a combined record of 6-22 - that's 21%, while the record of Patriots opponents is 9-17, 38% - not a lot better than the Jets - but includes two teams with winning records, Seattle and Indy ( I entered incorrect opponents records on the first post - sorry)

Excepting Indy, whom the Pats beat by 3 points, the Patriots have won all of their games by double digits. NY has won all of their games by and average of 6 points.

I'm not saying that the Jets are a bad team - if this game were at the Meadowlands, I'd think a bit differently - but it's in Foxboro - where it's very hard for an opponent to win.

The Patriots are at home, and they have Dillon.

At -6 I think the Patriots are a value.

bblight · Oct 20, 2004

LEYKIS101,

Seattle never tested the Pats - the Seahawks were out of the game from the first interception. The goal line stand by the Pats with seconds to end the game - when the Pats had the game sewn up with a ten point lead, is a prime example of how the Pats dominated.

Meanwhile, the Jets were nearly beaten at home by the 1-4 SF 49ers. Their second half comeback was just as much due to sloppy SF play on both sides of the ball as it was to better NY play.

There is always a possibility that the Jets could win ats - but I don't see it!

Good luck!

jaypaw · Oct 20, 2004

I agree about seattle and the goal line play of the pats - they did it a bunch of times vs miami as well but if you give curtis martin that chance he is much more likely to be able to capitalize. Not saying he will for sure but you must agree that he is more likely.

Both of these teams are improved but I think the jets are clearly more improved comparatively. There is little chance that the jets will come close to winning this game but to get nearly a TD in a matchup with 2 teams that are atop the league this far into the season is worth a shot.

Good luck

Glaken · Oct 20, 2004

ESPN INsider Advance Look

<TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD width=65>

</TD><TD class=sport>ESPN.com: NFL</TD><TD align=right>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Insider Preview: Jets at Patriots

<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>Scouts Inc.

Why To Watch
It's still relatively early in the season, but this game should have a substantial impact on the AFC East, as both teams have already beaten Buffalo and Miami. With so much on the line expect both teams to play to their strengths.

The Jets will look to RB Curtis Martin to shoulder the offensive load and help keep an aggressive Patriots' defense off balance. New England will use RB Corey Dillon to keep the Jets honest while allowing QB Tom Brady to continue to spread the ball around. Brady has done a great job of taking advantage of an underrated supporting cast. Will Martin lead the Jets to a victory over his former team or will New England continue to roll?

When the Jets have the ball
Rushing: New England is giving up an average of 4.1 yards a carry and the Jets will try to exploit this weakness by giving Martin 25-plus carries for the fourth time this year. While Martin has shown great burst this year and the Jets will pull OC Kevin Mawae around the play-side corner, expect Martin to have his most success running inside.

Warren

After a slow start Patriots LDE Ty Warren is developing into a quality starter opposite perennial Pro Bowl RDE Richard Seymour. Seymour and Warren both have the size and power to hold their ground working against the run. With the Jets OTs Jason Fabini and Kareem McKenzie struggling to consistently drive them off the ball, Mawae will have to get deeper when he pulls around the corner. As a result, the play will take a little longer to develop, which should give New England's active linebackers enough time to get to Martin.

NT Vince Wilfork also possesses excellent size and he too has shown steady progress, but he tries to do too much and will get caught out of position at times. Martin is a very smart runner who will read his blocks and make a cut as soon as he sees Wilfork commit to one side. He also has the power to pick up some yards after contact and should give the Jets an effective interior running game between the twenties.

Passing:

Pennington

Seattle had some success rolling QB Matt Hasselbeck out of the pocket against the Patriots. While Jets QB Chad Pennington isn't much of a threat to scramble, he is mobile enough to throw on the run, so expect the Jets to take a similar approach.

Moving Pennington out of the pocket helps keep New England defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel off balance. Crennel will throw a number of different looks at Pennington and he will blitz at times. If he plays man coverage behind the blitz and brings pressure from one side of the field when Pennington rolls to the opposite side, Pennington should be able to find a receiver downfield.

However, Pennington cannot force the big play when it isn't there whether it's in the vertical passing game or the red zone. The Patriots have allowed just three rushing touchdowns this year. They will bring massive DT Keith Traylor into the game to play opposite Wilfork and SS Rodney Harrison, who is outstanding in run support, will move into the box. As a result, the Jets will likely throw some fade routes and run some play-action near the goal line. Pennington must put the ball where only the receiver can catch it when throwing outside and he must be certain to put excellent velocity on his passes when throwing over the middle.

When the Patriots have the ball
Rushing: DTs Dewayne Robertson and Jason Ferguson are a big reason why the Jets' run defense is currently ranked eighth in the league, but New England will test their discipline with its wham play. The blocking scheme for the wham calls for the play-side guard to block the defensive end, the play-side tackle to head up to the middle linebacker and the tight end to block down on the defensive tackle. Robertson and Ferguson must anchor when the guard lined up over their head disappears to the outside. If they can stack the tight end up at the point of attack rather than flowing outside or allowing the tight end to get into a good blocking position, Dillon will have a much harder time locating a seam.

The defensive tackles need to defend this play well because Vilma is undersized. He will struggle to make the play once the front-side offensive tackle reaches him. It's also important to note that the Jets must wrap up and take good pursuit angles working against Dillon. He will consistently pick up yards after contact and has the speed to break some long runs once he gets into the open field. The Patriots will help Dillon fresh by giving RB Kevin Faulk five to 10 carries in relief and frequently using him on obvious passing downs.

Passing: The Jets ran a lot more 3-4 fronts last week and they may take the same approach on obvious passing downs this week. New England will continue to spread the field with multiple-receiver sets in an effort to create some quality single-coverage opportunities for Brady to exploit. While RDE John Abraham will move to outside linebacker when the Jets go to the 3-4-front and he will frequently rush the passer, he is capable of dropping into coverage. This will give defensive coordinator Donnie Henderson the option of dropping eight men into coverage and crowding the underneath where Brady does most of his damage.

Brady

In addition, allowing Abraham to rush from the outside linebacker position lets him move around and attack different gaps, making it difficult for the Patriots to adjust their protection to account for him. If Brady can't find anything downfield and starts to feel the pocket collapsing around him, he should pick up what he can on the ground and then slide.

One of the dangers of the league making it such a high priority to protect quarterbacks is the quarterback sometimes forgets to protect himself. Last week Brady scrambled in an effort to pick up the first down and ended up fumbling after taking a big hit. While he probably couldn't have slid and still picked up the first down, Brady could have run lower to the ground and wrapped the ball up with both hands. If he makes the same mistake this week, he'll continue to take some big hits and the result could be some turnovers for the Jets.

Scouts' Edge
While none of the five teams the Jets have beaten currently has a winning record, New England has wins over playoff contenders Seattle and Indianapolis. It's not that the Jets aren't a quality team capable of challenging the Patriots for the AFC East title. They just haven't played in a game of this magnitude yet. That, coupled with the fact that this game is in New England, will be the difference, as both backs will put their teams in a position to win. Look for Brady to make a big play at a critical time and for Pennington to make a mistake that results in a turnover or a stalled drive late in the game.