Concluding my quick review of the game I think that the line is *FAIR* in comparison to what the true line should be. Ball State excell's at every level and thus should be favored by 15+ here. BST also wins the T.o.P battle which is important in having the offensive chance to score. The ONLY trend I can forsee (which isn't that large) is a letdown spot because they have TOLEDO on their plate next which, IMO, is probably 25% better than this KENT ST team. I say GO BALL STATE!
An over might be nice too.
An over might be nice too.
Lol - I know right. Ball St isn't really shutting anyone down. They don't play nearly as well on D as that explosive offense but from the 3 games I've watched, they bend but don't break. I will say that with the exception of Navy, Akron and Indiana fell behind and started throwing to get back into it. Maybe that made the BSU D look a little better. That being said, I still think they will give up 20 points to Kent, but they will probable score 50.
<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-24-2008 09:03 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5790252" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>EMM</TD><TD class=alt2>Lol - I know right. Ball St isn't really shutting anyone down. They don't play nearly as well on D as that explosive offense but from the 3 games I've watched, they bend but don't break. I will say that with the exception of Navy, Akron and Indiana fell behind and started throwing to get back into it. Maybe that made the BSU D look a little better. That being said, I still think they will give up 20 points to Kent, but they will probable score 50.
My feelings as well. My computer leans to the UNDER *BUT* its in the percentage I refer to as the gray zone because it's random when it's in that vicinity. Gut and research says OVER this game. I'm thinking 62 total.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here are some official plays for now. Might want to double check my spreads cuz they may have moved, I tried updating them but it's a pain in the ass to do it manuall. I need to figure out how excel can download teams and spreads >:\
OFFICIAL PLAYS:
BOWLING GREEN OVER 41
NC ST OVER 43.5 *MEDIUM*
TROY +17 *SMALL*
KAN ST -20.5 *SMALL*
PURDUE +2.5
CINCY -10 *MEDIUM*
OPINIONS:
UAB OVER could be a play. People are moving it the wrong direction but it's not strong enough yet.
PENN ST UNDER is 1.5 points from being played as an under... not sure if it'll get there. Looks to be sharp but you know I hate losing totals. The line there is pretty close. Nothing to venture on a side.
AUBURN OVER--bad news is... I have AUB as one of the best D's in the nation.
My feelings as well. My computer leans to the UNDER *BUT* its in the percentage I refer to as the gray zone because it's random when it's in that vicinity. Gut and research says OVER this game. I'm thinking 62 total.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here are some official plays for now. Might want to double check my spreads cuz they may have moved, I tried updating them but it's a pain in the ass to do it manuall. I need to figure out how excel can download teams and spreads >:\
OFFICIAL PLAYS:
BOWLING GREEN OVER 41
NC ST OVER 43.5 *MEDIUM*
TROY +17 *SMALL*
KAN ST -20.5 *SMALL*
PURDUE +2.5
CINCY -10 *MEDIUM*
OPINIONS:
UAB OVER could be a play. People are moving it the wrong direction but it's not strong enough yet.
PENN ST UNDER is 1.5 points from being played as an under... not sure if it'll get there. Looks to be sharp but you know I hate losing totals. The line there is pretty close. Nothing to venture on a side.
AUBURN OVER--bad news is... I have AUB as one of the best D's in the nation.
ADDED PLAY:
Ville -3.5 *MEDIUM*
Ville UNDER 51 *SMALL*
Both teams are monster runners but also--they play good rush D. If UCONN can learn to throw the ball... they will be golden here. Question is, can they really give up on the run that's worked so well for them? I like Louisville here at home coasting to a win.
Ville -3.5 *MEDIUM*
Ville UNDER 51 *SMALL*
Both teams are monster runners but also--they play good rush D. If UCONN can learn to throw the ball... they will be golden here. Question is, can they really give up on the run that's worked so well for them? I like Louisville here at home coasting to a win.
<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 08:04 AM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5795694" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Ogata</TD><TD class=alt2>Interested what you think of TCU and Oaklahoma -18.5
any lean here?
Edge to TCU... almost the same reasoning as yesterday's game. Too many points to be giving to them IMO but my sheet says "not strong enough a play"
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 06:55 AM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5795611" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Ogata</TD><TD class=alt2>JP nice call bro....
Thanks >
I have your requested plays below too!
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 01:39 AM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5795418" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>echamp76</TD><TD class=alt2>I see it as strength against strength, chewing up tons of clock. Their may be a few big plays but not much in the game. Lorenzen has a 1 to 6 td to pick ratio and as long as the game is close Edsall will probably keep the ball on the ground.
This is an in conference game though so anything could happen. You'd think they'd play heavy D but they're also gonna want to play heavy O. If their running isn't gonna make it--they're going to HAVE to throw. I hvae the UNDER small.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
USC -25 - I know it's Sunday Quartbacking but I had them at -13... which is still SU... so I'm wrong.
LSU -24 - Now my sheet is telling me they are -22... go with your gut on their opponents strength--if it outweighs LSU will there... play the other way.
Alabama +7 -- Myline says GA -13 >:X yikes... UGA has downplayed this year though so... that's all I got.
Ball St. -17.5 - wow... ball state should be -22... I'm *ALL ABOUT* this play now.
Florida -23 -- Good. > well laying on -24
Nebraska -7 - well my system is overvalueing VA TECH but it's saying VA TECH -3. Situationally--I like NE at home and they are vastly improved from last year.
*****KEEP IN MIND***** Only BALL ST out of these is going to be a play for me. I see deep value in CINCY and am raising it to a medium play--look into it!
any lean here?
Edge to TCU... almost the same reasoning as yesterday's game. Too many points to be giving to them IMO but my sheet says "not strong enough a play"
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 06:55 AM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5795611" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Ogata</TD><TD class=alt2>JP nice call bro....
Thanks >
I have your requested plays below too!</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 01:39 AM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5795418" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>echamp76</TD><TD class=alt2>I see it as strength against strength, chewing up tons of clock. Their may be a few big plays but not much in the game. Lorenzen has a 1 to 6 td to pick ratio and as long as the game is close Edsall will probably keep the ball on the ground.
This is an in conference game though so anything could happen. You'd think they'd play heavy D but they're also gonna want to play heavy O. If their running isn't gonna make it--they're going to HAVE to throw. I hvae the UNDER small.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
USC -25 - I know it's Sunday Quartbacking but I had them at -13... which is still SU... so I'm wrong.
LSU -24 - Now my sheet is telling me they are -22... go with your gut on their opponents strength--if it outweighs LSU will there... play the other way.
Alabama +7 -- Myline says GA -13 >:X yikes... UGA has downplayed this year though so... that's all I got.
Ball St. -17.5 - wow... ball state should be -22... I'm *ALL ABOUT* this play now.
Florida -23 -- Good. >
well laying on -24Nebraska -7 - well my system is overvalueing VA TECH but it's saying VA TECH -3. Situationally--I like NE at home and they are vastly improved from last year.
*****KEEP IN MIND***** Only BALL ST out of these is going to be a play for me. I see deep value in CINCY and am raising it to a medium play--look into it!
FINAL RELEASES
Overall: 24-14
Louisville -3.5 *NORMAL* (i've bought back my play a bit, too much pub $)
Louisville UNDER 51 *SMALL*
BOWLING GREEN OVER 41
NC ST OVER 43.5 *MEDIUM*
TROY +17 *SMALL*
KAN ST -20.5 *SMALL*
PURDUE +2.5
CINCY -10 *MEDIUM* (almost a large play)
BALL ST -17.5
NAVY +16 *MEDIUM*
PITT -15.5 (sbg) *SMALL*
Overall: 24-14
Louisville -3.5 *NORMAL* (i've bought back my play a bit, too much pub $)
Louisville UNDER 51 *SMALL*
BOWLING GREEN OVER 41
NC ST OVER 43.5 *MEDIUM*
TROY +17 *SMALL*
KAN ST -20.5 *SMALL*
PURDUE +2.5
CINCY -10 *MEDIUM* (almost a large play)
BALL ST -17.5
NAVY +16 *MEDIUM*
PITT -15.5 (sbg) *SMALL*
<TABLE class=tborder style="BORDER-TOP-WIDTH: 0px" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>-26-2008 04:42 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5797177" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Selectrick</TD><TD class=alt2>:drink:Hey JP, what size are plays like Purdue that have no S, M, or L beside them? Great work BTW. Thanks!
Plays with no denotation are "NORMAL" plays which should be your set unit. My guage is MEDIUM=2-3 LARGE=4-5 units (but I usually risk around 25% of my whole bankroll on them... SJST hurt, but I try to hit 70%+ on them). SMALL=action play so whatever you can do away with for fun, but they are still plays nonetheless.
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 04:24 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5797085" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>whity</TD><TD class=alt2>Good luck my friend...solid card...
WHITY:toast:
Thanks Whity, I'll see you on the plus side.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Plays with no denotation are "NORMAL" plays which should be your set unit. My guage is MEDIUM=2-3 LARGE=4-5 units (but I usually risk around 25% of my whole bankroll on them... SJST hurt, but I try to hit 70%+ on them). SMALL=action play so whatever you can do away with for fun, but they are still plays nonetheless.
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-26-2008 04:24 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 5797085" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>whity</TD><TD class=alt2>Good luck my friend...solid card...
WHITY:toast:
Thanks Whity, I'll see you on the plus side.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
