Jesus Christ!!! UFC giving away free money on 12/10 with Kennedy? What in the hell is this?

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Here it is. Right out of his mouth.

Start at 0:59

"I can either be a mediocre middleweight or the welterweight champion...." -- words straight out of his mouth.

I have news for you. Kennedy beat Romero.... despite Romero's usual cheating. Ask yourself, "What would happen if Romero faced Gastelum?"

Come on, you know it. Romero would crush Gastelum with his size and strength. Kennedy is on par with Romero, IMO, and already beat him... except for the cheating.

Then he says: "Honesty, I don't think I could beat Weidman, Rockhold or Jacare.. those guys are beasts." Those are literally his words. And he is not feigning shit or anything there. He is straight-up telling the truth. And then he goes on to talk about he is at a huge disadvantage re... height, reach, strength and size disadvantage. And now here you have Kennedy coming in dominating all those factors....

You know Gastelum would get pounded by Weidman, Rockhold, Jacare, Bisping, Romero.... there is no doubt.

But you count out Kennedy? ... and throw -140 odds out there..... GTFOH

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

That video is the exact diagnosis of this fight. And after the fight is over (if Gastelum manages to make through all the rounds), they'll simply say,

"Look, it was just a mismatch. Size, power, strength. They should be in separate divisions. That's all there is to it."

And I will tell you that I called this from a mile away.

The only mitigating factor is if Kennedy got hurt or some shit going into the fight... otherwise, best UFC bet I've ever seen.

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Kennedy only lost 2 fights in the last approximate 9 years -- Rockhold and Souza both by decision. (The Romero fight was a joke)

Gastelum would've ate a sandwich against Rock and Souza.

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Someone commented:

Gastelum wins via cheeseburger.

I can respect that. That would be the only scenario where Kennedy loses.

NewYorkKnight · Dec 9, 2016

Kennedy might win ... sure ... whatever.

lol but there is ZEEERO value in him as a favorite.

You have given NO valid insight why he is a "Lock"

If you know the sport ... a guy 25 months removed from the sport with a career outside the octagon is no sure thing.

Good Luck

NewYorkKnight · Dec 9, 2016

RunMaker said:
Someone commented:

Gastelum wins via cheeseburger.

I can respect that. That would be the only scenario where Kennedy loses.

You might want to update your material Sinbad

Gastelum now fighting at his Real weight (NO cut / Healthy)

NewYorkKnight · Dec 9, 2016

also LOVE how you factor in "body type" to a fight ...

Amateur.

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

NY Knight said:
Kennedy might win ... sure ... whatever.

lol but there is ZEEERO value in him as a favorite.

You have given NO valid insight why he is a "Lock"

If you know the sport ... a guy 25 months removed from the sport with a career outside the octagon is no sure thing.

Good Luck

Unlike you, my points have not have been attacks on you but on Gastelum.

The "value" is absolutely on Kennedy, which is the whole point of this thread. This is an incredible opportunity at an incredible price. Kennedy is the picture of value, IMO.

I gave you an analysis of the fight not in my words but from the actual mouth of the fighter; ie, Kelvin, how would you fare against the big boys in the next division? Kelvin's words: "Uh, yeah, I'd get crushed" (paraphrasing)

I don't claim to be an expert and provide incredible analysis like Dominick Cruz, who provides some of the most crisp analysis in the game. And if you care to break down the fight (since you're an "expert" and not an amateur), then go ahead. But Gastelum will not overcome his severe disadvantages in this fight. The best he can do is survive the 3 rounds and lose by decision.

You will see after the fight after Kennedy wins. You can make some money or you can watch Kelvin walk into the ring with extra layers of blubber on his body. It's you're money.

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

NY Knight said:
also LOVE how you factor in "body type" to a fight ...

Amateur.

This comment is laughable. Did you even watch the video with Gastelum talking about it?

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Gastelum: "My body pulled a quick one."

Blames everything but himself. His body pulled a quick one on him when he was 10 lbs overweight against Woodley at the weigh in, lolz.

I like Gastelum as a person. He's a good kid and from a good family. But I've seen this many times before in sports. It's like an NFL team that is 6-1 and then finishes the season 7-9. The wheels fall off. You can just see the team before it's about to crash.

You can see in this video that he is lying at the end, which is not something that Gastelum regularly does. He says he didn't have confidence in the past about this division, but now he's okay. Lol. Then he follows that up by stating that logically he'll move back down a weight class... if Dana (and the cheeseburgers) will allow him. If you're okay at this level, why would you move back down? He wants to move back down b/c he knows he doesn't have a chance in this division with the size of these guys.

If you need a good laugh, read the comments from this video. Pretty hilarious.

Also, I should say that with all that Gastelum has gone through recently, he is a mess. It's clear in this video. I think moving down a division he is a great fighter and a great contender. But he's not in Rockhold's atmosphere or those other guys and he knows it.

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Kennedy in his interview saying that after he wins he might say something in favor of the fighters and against the UFC.... dumb, dumb, dumb. You don't bite the hand that feeds you, or you at least don't mention it before the fight... b/c from a revenue-generating standpoint, the UFC would probably prefer Gastelum to win. And there's a good chance Kennedy will have to rely on the judges.

MattyMatt · Dec 9, 2016

RunMaker said:
Kennedy in his interview saying that after he wins he might say something in favor of the fighters and against the UFC.... dumb, dumb, dumb. You don't bite the hand that feeds you, or you at least don't mention it before the fight... b/c from a revenue-generating standpoint, the UFC would probably prefer Gastelum to win. And there's a good chance Kennedy will have to rely on the judges.

You making excuses already?!? I kid, I kid...

Kennedy has been making noise for years now (bout the entire 25 months he's been out). I bet I know what he's gonna say already...he's not concerned, why should be be, as the lesser organizations now pay more, and would love to have a guy like Kennedy around for a few fights, which is also great for Kennedy with his age and all...

PatsFan1283 · Dec 9, 2016

I'm riding with RunMaker

He knows

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

That's true. But he said the first thing out of his mouth is Bisping/Romero as an opponent.... He has an argument to squeak into a pre-title fight, IMO. That is, he beats Gastelum and then he fights one dude to set up the title fight as his next fight. I know it sounds like crazy talk, but Wiedman/Rockhold have moved themselves one fight back by loss/no fight. That leaves Jacare/Romero... and Kennedy on the outside.

Nah, fuck it. Too much hypothetical bullshit.

Honestly, I'd like to see Romero/Kennedy again... but it looks like the UFC has lined up Romero/Bisping for May? June? Something like that.

Anyways, let's look at the only way Gastelum can win -- decision.

Rockhold and Jacare had to beat Kennedy by decision. Gastelum will not be submitting or knocking out Kennedy. Especially as the bigger, more powerful dude. And Gastelum does not want to be on the ground with Kennedy. It's almost like Gastelum has no path to victory outside of a decision. Kennedy ate Romero fists and knees for lunch. Gastelum does not have his power by a long shit. Kennedy will eat his strikes like Gastelum eats donuts -- with relish. Honestly, these odds are absolutely out of whack.

MattyMatt · Dec 9, 2016

PatsFan1283 said:
I'm riding with RunMaker

He knows

Never said I wasnt backing Kennedy, in fact, he should win the fight, however, this is probably one of the hardest matches to predict the entire weekend of fighting, and a fight that could and most likely will go to a decision. Far from a 1 minute schlacking of Fat Boy Gastelum. It's a pass for me. That is all...

don't know if I'm even watching because it's not a priority type card, and for sure wouldn't buy it on PPV...

RunMaker · Dec 9, 2016

Matty, just watch it for free on the web.

Listen to Bisping talk about not listening to a doctor. This guy is hilarious:

Start at 2:30

RunMaker · Dec 10, 2016

<small>Kelvin Gastelum vs Tim Kennedy - Middleweight 3 rounds - UFC 206</small>
Sat 12/10	1303 Gastelum / Kennedy goes 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_70" size="4"> -175
10:30PM	1304 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_70" size="4"> +145
Sat 12/10	1305 Gastelum wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_71" size="4"> +502
10:30PM	1306 Not Gastelum inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_71" size="4"> -803
Sat 12/10	1307 Gastelum wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_72" size="4"> +195
10:30PM	1308 Not Gastelum by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_72" size="4"> -255
Sat 12/10	1309 Kennedy wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_73" size="4"> +256
10:30PM	1310 Not Kennedy inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_73" size="4"> -337
Sat 12/10	1311 Kennedy wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_74" size="4"> +170
10:30PM	1312 Not Kennedy by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_74" size="4"> -215
Sat 12/10	1313 Gastelum / Kennedy draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_75" size="4"> +6000
10:30PM	1314 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_75" size="4"> -15000
Sat 12/10	1315 Gastelum wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_76" size="4"> +1025
10:30PM	1316 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_76" size="4"> -2075
Sat 12/10	1317 Gastelum wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_77" size="4"> +1225
10:30PM	1318 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_77" size="4"> -2675
Sat 12/10	1319 Gastelum wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_78" size="4"> +2075
10:30PM	1320 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_78" size="4"> -6225
Sat 12/10	1321 Kennedy wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_79" size="4"> +500
10:30PM	1322 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_79" size="4"> -900
Sat 12/10	1323 Kennedy wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_80" size="4"> +700
10:30PM	1324 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_80" size="4"> -1500
Sat 12/10	1325 Kennedy wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_81" size="4"> +1300
10:30PM	1326 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_81" size="4"> -3000
Sat 12/10	1327 Gastelum wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_82" size="4"> +870
10:30PM	1328 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_82" size="4"> -1780
Sat 12/10	1329 Gastelum wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_83" size="4"> +995
10:30PM	1330 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_83" size="4"> -1995
Sat 12/10	1331 Kennedy wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_84" size="4"> +445
10:30PM	1332 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_84" size="4"> -735
Sat 12/10	1333 Kennedy wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_85" size="4"> +569
10:30PM	1334 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_85" size="4"> -1105
Sat 12/10	1335 Gastelum / Kennedy starts round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_86" size="4"> -245
10:30PM	1336 Fight won’t start round 3		<input id="editx" name="M2_86" size="4"> +185
Sat 12/10	1337 Gastelum / Kennedy starts round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_87" size="4"> -509
10:30PM	1338 Fight won’t start round 2		<input id="editx" name="M2_87" size="4"> +369
<cite>if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action</cite>
Sat 12/10	1339 Gastelum (scorecards = no action)		<input id="editx" name="M1_88" size="4"> +168
10:30PM	1340 Kennedy (scorecards = no action)		<input id="editx" name="M2_88" size="4"> -210
<cite>any victory inside distance is a winner for selected fighter, see sportsbook rules for grading details</cite>
Sat 12/10	1341 Gastelum points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S1_89" size="4"> +3½ -225
10:30PM	1342 Kennedy points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S2_89" size="4"> -3½ +175

These odds tell an accurate story, I believe.

1. (-803) Not Gastelum within distance. -- If there is any bet this whole year that is the lock of holy locks, this is it.

Love TK to win, but that above line is as sure as it gets.

RunMaker · Dec 10, 2016

All those odds have strongly moved with Kennedy:

Sat 12/10

		1305 Gastelum wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_71" size="4"> +502
10:30PM		1306 Not Gastelum inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_71" size="4"> -803

Sat 12/10

		1305 Gastelum wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_71" size="4"> +539
10:30PM		1306 Not Gastelum inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_71" size="4"> -895

///////////////////

Sat 12/10

		1321 Kennedy wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_79" size="4"> +500
10:30PM		1322 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_79" size="4"> -900

Sat 12/10

		1321 Kennedy wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_79" size="4"> +475
10:30PM		1322 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_79" size="4"> -825

////////////////////

Sat 12/10

		1331 Kennedy wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_84" size="4"> +445
10:30PM		1332 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_84" size="4"> -735

Sat 12/10

		1331 Kennedy wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_84" size="4"> +420
10:30PM		1332 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_84" size="4"> -650

/////////////////////

Sat 12/10

		1341 Gastelum points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S1_89" size="4"> +3½ -225
10:30PM		1342 Kennedy points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S2_89" size="4"> -3½ +175

Sat 12/10

		1341 Gastelum points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S1_89" size="4"> +3½ -175
10:30PM		1342 Kennedy points handicap	<input id="editx" name="S2_89" size="4"> -3½ +145

RunMaker · Dec 10, 2016

The points handicap is massive and is probably the most descriptive of all. Trying to get you suckered into taking Gastelum.

Expect a boring fight with Kennedy dominating the floor sex game and possibly impregnating Gastelum by the 2nd room.

TK wins a minimum of 2 rounds. Hard to see KG getting even one round.

RunMaker · Dec 10, 2016

actually money line, however, continues to dip

now -135.... -125 at some places

they must have motivated with the promise of multiple cheeseburgers if he wins... b/c I just dont seei t