Is soccer the easiest sport to beat?

[Icemantbi]

I'm starting to think soccer is the easiest sport to beat the books at. Anyone else think so? Let's look at a few things:

1. No salary cap, players are bought and sold, so no parity whatsoever. Reading, for example, simply doesn't have the skill level of Arsenal to compete. I mean, I know there are no locks, but was there any way Arsenal would lose this game? In american pro sports, with salary caps and everything, there is alot more parity, hence more upsets occur.

2. Beacause of promotion/relegation systems, there are alot of bad teams playing alot of good teams. Derby in the EPL, for example, shouldn't even be in the top tier of english soccer. This makes it easier to cap, just bet the top teams against the bad teams. (make sure of starting eleven, however)

3. To win the championship in any given league, you have to finish first. This means even the best teams can't afford to take a day off so as not to drop any points. Man United and Arsenal, battling for top spot in the EPL, will play hard every single EPL game. Unlike NA pro sports, where you just have to come top 8 or whatever to make the playoffs, teams tend to take more games off and simply float.

4. Lots of leagues, especially lower tier leagues, where linemakers may make more errors to the line, which you can take advantage of. How many, for example, would bet on lower mexican leagues, for example? I think linesmakers can make mistakes.

I'm thinking about concentrating more on soccer, as I find this the easiest sport to win at.

 

[benrik]

Ive been concentrating on soccer for awhile now. Even though Arsenal was the obvious pick this morning, the odds at kickoff were something like 1.49

You're right, often in the lower divisions (I like all English leagues and French Ligue 2) are somewhat overlooked or forgotten about when everyone focuses on the one big Premier League game. Today, West Brom on the road at Coventry I took for -0 at 1.78

Another thing I like about soccer is that there is pretty much always games to bet on and in the morning before North American sports begin.

 

[MarkieMark+]

My best results are in England League 1 and the Premier League is a close 2nd.

Don't get carried away. I have been betting on Soccer for about 10 years now and just when you think you have it all figured out, WHAM, you get a string of results that turn everything upside down.

Look at Chelsea vs. Everton on Sunday, for example. Chelsea playing at Stamford Bridge should not be dropping points to Everton who travelled mid-week to Germany for a UEFA Cup match on Thursday. Chelsea were -300 favourites but only drew 1-1 after beating a very talented Manchester City 6-0 last home game. And don't even get me started on Liverpool.

 

[fhmesq44]

I think it is. Especially if you are willing to pay the price on PK and +.5 lines for the good teams. They are expensive (often VERY expensive when taking +.5), but the best teams go through the season losing only 2 or 3 games all season, and typically they are against each other. I would venture that of the 128 games Liverpool, Chelsea, ManU and Arsenal will play against the lower 16 this season they will lost no more than 5-8 games. So, if you pay the PK price or +.5 price you would make a nice profit.

I have been playing 2 and 3 team round robins at +.5 a fair amount this season with good success. Payouts aren't the best, but the risk is pretty minimal.

 

[goodcall]

So you'll come out ahead by blindly betting big favorites?

 

[fhmesq44]

So you'll come out ahead by blindly betting big favorites?

No, but the best teams rarely lose when they aren't playing each other, especially at home. I think Chelsea went like 50 some games recently without losing at home, Arsenal hasn't lost at home in like 7 months, and only once since August 2006.

 

[magillagorilla]

I have been wagering off and on for 3 years on soccer and I have done far better at it than most sports but I would really love to see the stats on draws.It seems to me alot of teams sit certain lineups and players for certain tournaments and games,I think knowing which tournament[champions league,fa cup, eufa cup,et al...} and which game means the most in terms of points and standings has alot to do with the lineup a team fields for the match, and also what danger you have of losing on a draw.

I rarely lose on games s.u.,I just seem to lose alot on a draw.

 

[benrik]

No, but the best teams rarely lose when they aren't playing each other, especially at home. I think Chelsea went like 50 some games recently without losing at home, Arsenal hasn't lost at home in like 7 months, and only once since August 2006.

Im not sure what the Chelsea home undefeated streak is at now but its surely over 50. Arsenal haven't lost at home since Easter Saturday.

Draws are a bit tough to pick out. I would say that if you bet draws between every matchup involving the big four you'd come out on top. Arsenal has already drawn Man U and Liverpool.

 

[chriscol]

i dont thinkit s easier to beat..it s probably the same as in any sport. yes, you have teams with higher payrolls, but they are also resting players if onvolved in more than one cup/championship.
also it s in general a low scoring game, which makes it dangerous, but also gives so much excitement to us europeans..the underdog has always a chance...in football(soccer) the better team, in terms of possesion time and general domination of play, does often not win.
teams are able to defend with all players and keep it to a 0-0 draw and suddenly they come once on offense and score by a deflection a crazy penalty, a wrong referee decision or something else...people here who follow football know what i mean. as a fan it s exciting, because all the improbabilities, but it makes betting difficult.
if you compare it regarding odd:
lets say you have a fav with a 1.10 line straight up in soccer and the NFL.
i would say the NFL is the safer bet...if you have something like SF yesterday vs. Seattle playing crap and making virtually no first down in first half they have no chance in NFL at all, in soccer they would have a good chance to be at least at a draw.
if you look from a hdc/asian line perspective, the same fav would be like -2 or even -2.5 goals in soccer and about a 14 point fav in NFL... in both cases the back door cover is very much on. i personally feel it s more likely in NFL for the NE to beat Miami by 3 TDs than for Manu to win at home vs. Derby by 3 goals.

What s said here about the lower leagues is right, but how accurate are the lines maker, when it comes to lower league NCAA hoops or AHL hockey or league AAA baseball...if you know your stuff every lower league in every sport should be beatable.

The big advantage in soccer is (and together we have sucessfully the strategy her in the forum) that with all the domestic leagues you can focus on your country much better and are more likely to watch all the teams playing and get more,better infos and news.

 

[fhmesq44]

Im not sure what the Chelsea home undefeated streak is at now but its surely over 50. Arsenal haven't lost at home since Easter Saturday.

Draws are a bit tough to pick out. I would say that if you bet draws between every matchup involving the big four you'd come out on top. Arsenal has already drawn Man U and Liverpool.

I think it is slightly over 50 right now, last home loss was v. Barca in spring of 2006. No idea when they last lost to english competition at home. Arsenal hasn't lost in 27 games in all competitions home or away.

The draws are tough and when you lose on a draw, that sucks. Soccer is a funny game, one team can dominate yet not be able to break through, or the other team can convert their one and only chance for a 1-1 draw. That is why I like the PK and +.5 on the good teams. Like I said, they can be VERY expensive, which is why I like to parlay them in 2s and 3s to get a better price. Betting them at PK or +.5 is like betting NE on the money line each week, probably even stronger than betting NE on the money line, NE wouldn't go 50+ straight at home without a loss or 27 straight games without a loss, neither of which are uncommon amongst the best teams.

Arsenal went an entire season (38) games without losing in the EPL, Inter lost only once last year in Serie A, that is 38-0 and 37-1 on the +.5.

Chriscol, you are 100% right about the excitement, the tension that any kick , the first, last or anyone in between, can determine a game is what makes soccer so great.

 

[afeldm1]

hi fhm-

i follow your hockey picks and want to get started on some other sports that aren't so mainstream in the US and thought that this could do.

If it's possible-could you make a thread with your picks for each match?

I know there is no system like in hockey and you don't have a specific method but if you could do that-I would appreciate it-

BOL

 

[fhmesq44]

hi fhm-

i follow your hockey picks and want to get started on some other sports that aren't so mainstream in the US and thought that this could do.

If it's possible-could you make a thread with your picks for each match?

I know there is no system like in hockey and you don't have a specific method but if you could do that-I would appreciate it-

BOL

I suppose I can, but there are better soccer cappers than me in here. The plays are kind of ridiculous though, which is why I haven't posted them in the past. Also, not all books have +.5 lines for the favorites, so you may not be able to play everything. 5dimes does if you have an account there.

For instance, my last soccer play was on 11/6 in Champions Leage and was a two and three team round robin of Porto +.5, Liverpool +.5, Milan +.5, Chelsea +.5, Valencia +.5 and Real Madrid +.5 for a total risk of 10.5 units (or, .3 units each) to win ~6 units. Valencia lost so the net was a .55 unit loss.

I do play some other regular plays too, but a lot of what I play are plays like that.