"Reality check: Would Alberta benefit by letting COVID-19 spread among young people to build up herd immunity?
As Albertans largely stay home to follow public health orders and recommendations related to the COVID-19 pandemic, some people are musing over whether different approaches to the health crisis should be considered in an effort to build up herd immunity.
While holding a news conference Wednesday to offer Albertans a look at provincial modelling so far with respect to COVID-19, Premier Jason Kenney acknowledged that some have questions about whether the province could employ a different approach.
“I’ve seen online and some of the chatter and discussions here, people saying, ‘Well why don’t you just kind of close down the seniors’ homes and quarantine the seniors and let the rest of society continue to function?'”
A recent article in the MIT Technology Review explains herd immunity as a concept that applies to a virus spreading until so many people have been infected that the outbreak begins to recede because people build up immunity and the virus finds it more difficult to find a susceptible host.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, tweeted on April 5 that she has also heard questions about whether to let COVID-19 spread among young and healthy groups to increase the population’s immunity to the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
“We don’t know who will have a severe case of COVID-19,” she tweeted. “Some who are young and healthy will have severe illness and even die.
“Until we know more about who may be at greatest risk and more evidence about treatments, the best way to prevent severe illness is for all of us to perform physical distancing, stay home when possible and avoid non-essential activities.”
Two infectious disease specialists, both based in Alberta, agree and tell Global News unequivocally that allowing COVID-19 to spread among young people with the aim of building up herd immunity is simply a bad idea.
“It is true that infection can range from being almost unnoticeable through deathly, however, a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases who are critically ill and die are young people,” says Dr.Lynora Saxinger, a physician specializing in infectious diseases at the University of Alberta.
“I see no benefit to this, because if we can control the disease in the population through carefully staged public health measures, hopefully we can get through to an effective vaccine with fewer deaths overall.”
Saxinger adds that if a large number of young people get sick in a short period period of time and health-care resources are unable to cope, there is a higher risk of death from COVID-19, not to mention other diseases since “unchecked transmission increases deaths of all causes” because there aren’t enough resources to care for medical episodes like heart attacks, given that people could spend weeks on ventilators.
Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Calgary, agrees.
“We do know that severe disease and mortality is lower in younger people, however, they do still get sick, they do still end up in the hospital and they do still end up dying,” he says. “Currently there is no way of predicting who will have minor symptoms and who will have severe disease or death.
“Even if this strategy worked, only this population of people would have herd immunity — this is not a transferrable protection. That is, the older people who are not exposed to the virus would have not protection.”
Jenne noted that herd immunity differs for each virus.
“[It is] difficult to determine what we need for COVID-19 herd immunity at this point,” he says. “Based on other respiratory viruses, we need 60 to 70 per cent of the population to have immunity for the herd effect to work.
“With influenza, we typically approach this level of protection through a combination of natural exposure with recovery along with vaccination. Currently we do not have a vaccine option for COVID-19 and overall mortality rates are much higher than influenza, meaning more people will die from COVID-19 than from the flu during natural exposure and recovery. This is not a good approach to dealing with the current situation.”
Saxinger also says it’s too early to know what will be enough to achieve herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“[We] don’t know if the threshold for herd immunity to this virus [is] 70 per cent? Ninety-five per cent? No idea,” she notes. “In other places, when public health restrictions have been relaxed, they’ve seen secondary epidemics which would suggest that they have not reached that threshold yet.
Jenne also explains there are ethical components to discussing herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“I am not sure if there is a ratio that would justify a disease management strategy that intentionally involves exposing healthy individuals to a virus that may kill them, leading to otherwise preventable deaths,” he says.
“By easing social distancing, you would essentially be ensuring higher levels of transmission not only within the younger cohort of patients, but also to other family members, household members and community members.
“Though the idea of herd immunity through natural exposure may seem appealing, it is nearly impossible to keep it within one group of patients.”
Jenne also explains there are ethical components to discussing herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“I am not sure if there is a ratio that would justify a disease management strategy that intentionally involves exposing healthy individuals to a virus that may kill them, leading to otherwise preventable deaths,” he says.
“By easing social distancing, you would essentially be ensuring higher levels of transmission not only within the younger cohort of patients, but also to other family members, household members and community members.
“Though the idea of herd immunity through natural exposure may seem appealing, it is nearly impossible to keep it within one group of patients.”
Jenne adds that even vaccines that are less than optimal are still likely to reduce the severity of illness and reduce mortality.
Saxinger says there are currently a number of promising developments on the vaccine front.
“Hopefully that will work out [and] people who did not become infected in initial waves can be protected,” she says. “If the pool of susceptible people is reduced a great deal by people who recover from natural infection, and people getting immunized, the virus spread in the population is reduced or eliminated.”
Saxinger used a fire analogy to explain how the successful development of a vaccine could be a game-changer.
“Imagine you have a fire that is spreading across a dirt field — jumping from dry twig to dry twig — with the twigs representing susceptible people. Now remove the twigs.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6802755/coronavirus-covid-19-young-people-herd-immunity/
As Albertans largely stay home to follow public health orders and recommendations related to the COVID-19 pandemic, some people are musing over whether different approaches to the health crisis should be considered in an effort to build up herd immunity.
While holding a news conference Wednesday to offer Albertans a look at provincial modelling so far with respect to COVID-19, Premier Jason Kenney acknowledged that some have questions about whether the province could employ a different approach.
“I’ve seen online and some of the chatter and discussions here, people saying, ‘Well why don’t you just kind of close down the seniors’ homes and quarantine the seniors and let the rest of society continue to function?'”
A recent article in the MIT Technology Review explains herd immunity as a concept that applies to a virus spreading until so many people have been infected that the outbreak begins to recede because people build up immunity and the virus finds it more difficult to find a susceptible host.
Dr. Deena Hinshaw, Alberta’s chief medical officer of health, tweeted on April 5 that she has also heard questions about whether to let COVID-19 spread among young and healthy groups to increase the population’s immunity to the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
“We don’t know who will have a severe case of COVID-19,” she tweeted. “Some who are young and healthy will have severe illness and even die.
“Until we know more about who may be at greatest risk and more evidence about treatments, the best way to prevent severe illness is for all of us to perform physical distancing, stay home when possible and avoid non-essential activities.”
Two infectious disease specialists, both based in Alberta, agree and tell Global News unequivocally that allowing COVID-19 to spread among young people with the aim of building up herd immunity is simply a bad idea.
“It is true that infection can range from being almost unnoticeable through deathly, however, a significant proportion of COVID-19 cases who are critically ill and die are young people,” says Dr.Lynora Saxinger, a physician specializing in infectious diseases at the University of Alberta.
“I see no benefit to this, because if we can control the disease in the population through carefully staged public health measures, hopefully we can get through to an effective vaccine with fewer deaths overall.”
Saxinger adds that if a large number of young people get sick in a short period period of time and health-care resources are unable to cope, there is a higher risk of death from COVID-19, not to mention other diseases since “unchecked transmission increases deaths of all causes” because there aren’t enough resources to care for medical episodes like heart attacks, given that people could spend weeks on ventilators.
Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Calgary, agrees.
“We do know that severe disease and mortality is lower in younger people, however, they do still get sick, they do still end up in the hospital and they do still end up dying,” he says. “Currently there is no way of predicting who will have minor symptoms and who will have severe disease or death.
“Even if this strategy worked, only this population of people would have herd immunity — this is not a transferrable protection. That is, the older people who are not exposed to the virus would have not protection.”
Jenne noted that herd immunity differs for each virus.
“[It is] difficult to determine what we need for COVID-19 herd immunity at this point,” he says. “Based on other respiratory viruses, we need 60 to 70 per cent of the population to have immunity for the herd effect to work.
“With influenza, we typically approach this level of protection through a combination of natural exposure with recovery along with vaccination. Currently we do not have a vaccine option for COVID-19 and overall mortality rates are much higher than influenza, meaning more people will die from COVID-19 than from the flu during natural exposure and recovery. This is not a good approach to dealing with the current situation.”
Saxinger also says it’s too early to know what will be enough to achieve herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“[We] don’t know if the threshold for herd immunity to this virus [is] 70 per cent? Ninety-five per cent? No idea,” she notes. “In other places, when public health restrictions have been relaxed, they’ve seen secondary epidemics which would suggest that they have not reached that threshold yet.
Jenne also explains there are ethical components to discussing herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“I am not sure if there is a ratio that would justify a disease management strategy that intentionally involves exposing healthy individuals to a virus that may kill them, leading to otherwise preventable deaths,” he says.
“By easing social distancing, you would essentially be ensuring higher levels of transmission not only within the younger cohort of patients, but also to other family members, household members and community members.
“Though the idea of herd immunity through natural exposure may seem appealing, it is nearly impossible to keep it within one group of patients.”
Jenne also explains there are ethical components to discussing herd immunity when it comes to COVID-19.
“I am not sure if there is a ratio that would justify a disease management strategy that intentionally involves exposing healthy individuals to a virus that may kill them, leading to otherwise preventable deaths,” he says.
“By easing social distancing, you would essentially be ensuring higher levels of transmission not only within the younger cohort of patients, but also to other family members, household members and community members.
“Though the idea of herd immunity through natural exposure may seem appealing, it is nearly impossible to keep it within one group of patients.”
Jenne adds that even vaccines that are less than optimal are still likely to reduce the severity of illness and reduce mortality.
Saxinger says there are currently a number of promising developments on the vaccine front.
“Hopefully that will work out [and] people who did not become infected in initial waves can be protected,” she says. “If the pool of susceptible people is reduced a great deal by people who recover from natural infection, and people getting immunized, the virus spread in the population is reduced or eliminated.”
Saxinger used a fire analogy to explain how the successful development of a vaccine could be a game-changer.
“Imagine you have a fire that is spreading across a dirt field — jumping from dry twig to dry twig — with the twigs representing susceptible people. Now remove the twigs.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/6802755/coronavirus-covid-19-young-people-herd-immunity/
