Is Denver -3 at Tampa a trap?

[chonce]

Was listening to Behind the Bets with Schooch. He said that this game is the largest divergence between the public (12-1 ticket count in favor of Denver) and the sharps (who are almost all on TB).

On that note, this week is filled with games like this: short road favs that will get public support: Sea - 2.5, Dallas - 2, Detroit -3, Carolina -3.

The books have been killing it so far, so maybe the public wins some of that back this week if Denver, Carolina etc... cash. But this is a tricky, tricky week.

 

[awnp]

I follow TB closely and the line doesn't make sense. The LA game was a gut kick. Defense is real susceptible to chunk plays. Offense is the strong suit, but Denver is top 3 defensively.

Only thing that makes sense is the situation. 2 road games for Denver East of the Mississippi (right?), 2nd home game in a row for TB.

The one thing that makes TB attractive is they're usually in it til the end with Winston, save for week 2 getting away cause of TOs. But that's really subjective on my part.

 

[chonce]

I follow TB closely and the line doesn't make sense. The LA game was a gut kick. Defense is real susceptible to chunk plays. Offense is the strong suit, but Denver is top 3 defensively.

Only thing that makes sense is the situation. 2 road games for Denver East of the Mississippi (right?), 2nd home game in a row for TB.

The one thing that makes TB attractive is they're usually in it til the end with Winston, save for week 2 getting away cause of TOs. But that's really subjective on my part.

I lost 3.3 units on TB last week (my largest bet of the week. I think if the kicker didn't screw up so much I probably would've won. Any insight to how he is doing? Are they riding him out through his struggles? It was a real problem last week. Missing PAT's easy kicks, and then forced them to go for two, or go for it on 4th down because they couldn't trust the kicker/

EDIT: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/bucs-k...nd-round-pick-keeps-on-missing-223451230.html

For some perspective on the kicker.

 

[1sob]

My favourite team is Denver and I know how they play
their defence is far superior than any other teams, Sieman is good as long as he doesn't force the ball since he knows the D
will keep the team in. This is there 2 nd game on the road which is tough for any team in the NFL.
tb looked awful against the Rams but look how the Rams played against the 49'ers.
TB will be ready for the champs.
my play would be TB or no play

 

[awnp]

Chonce, that's the million dollar question. He used to be a machine, but since being taken with a 2nd Rd pick the pressure is getting to him. In the preseason he hit a bad steak and word slipped he was seeing a sports shrink to deal with it. I'm super concerned. If he can figure it out he has a ability to be a Gostkowski type kicker. I know for sure they're stuck with him baring injury.

 

[sendacash]

I will let the cat out of the bag in noting that Denver is 3-7 SU in the state of Florida since 1998. I'm sure there is a worse stat than that, but I can't find it right now. Basically, this is an environmental reverse altitude effect. Just as its difficult for teams from sea level to come up and play in altitude, there is a reverse effect with teams from altitude who have to go in play at sea level in high humidity. That being said, I'm not sure its going to be enough to help this sorry Tampa outfit to overcome. And yes I had Tampa last week, full disclosure.

 

[dsong]

For some reason it seems like sharps are in on Tampa Bay. Shocked they didn't wait until the inevitable +3.5. They must really like this play.

 

[sendacash]

I think the absence of Doug Martin could be big here. Denver is weaker against the run this year for sure, Shane Ray is not as good as Demarcus Ware against the run but he has blossomed as a pass rusher with 3 sacks last week and they kept Von Miller on a pitch count. If Tampa can't run the ball, they will get devoured by this defense. Siemian is getting lots of props this week, I like him for what he is a 7th round pick but he has accuracy issues imo.

 

[billbeater]

Tampa back where they are comfortable, AS A DOG!!!!
Denver more travel and expect Simeon to suck..
Bucs Monlyline!!!
There is a reason why the ML is short, under +150..... Vegas isn't stupid.
Cash it!

 

[billbeater]

Denver as Champs should also get the best TB effort..
GL

 

[sendacash]

Vegas is pretty tough to beat at -110, probably not even worth the effort of trying

 

[billbeater]

Vegas is pretty tough to beat at -110, probably not even worth the effort of trying

Good point, I was just telling a friend how there is really no competition in vegas offering -105 or any discounted lines that I have ever seen....
10% and alot of bets makes Booking Very profitable...
And they all just lay any big money difference off to the casino down the street to maximize the -110 profit...
GL to ya

 

[MoneyMiller]

Don't over think this one, kid from northwestern is a upgrade from the Qb play last yr and we know they are defending the title with best player in league Von Strip Sack Miller. Bucs defense is turrable, denv by two scores or more. Maybe way more, tb is the hunted here not laying traps with that defense.

 

[kid31]

TB DEFENSE has some players

Alexander and David are All Pro at LB
Good rookie Corner
Mccoy on the Dline and a pass rusher in Howard Jones who is underrated. They have some players who could cause a rookie on the road some problems. Don't kid yourself. Their offense arguably better than Denvers.

There is a reason; a weird reason that this line has not moved from 3 despite being pounded by Denver bets.

 

[iamnomad]

Denver minus the points. TB among bottom 5 in opponent passer rating, also losing turnover battle, two stats i key off of...

 

[Pstar]

Non conference - far travel, Denver will walk away with the AFC west...will they be as motivated as TB??

If Denver D shows up they win, TB, has much more to play for IMO. Would expect Denver laying 7.

 

[Pstar]

I would expect EKG to need TB. We'll see...

 

[kid31]

I would expect EKG to need TB. We'll see...

he isnt picking TB in this one. Not his style. I've kept notes on his trends. He likes the Packers and in games like this "need Den" is coming if you see something

he's a sucker for those stanford cards too lol

 

[john towers]

What? Every single Bookie everywhere is going to need Tampa. NO one is betting the BUCS. Denver wins 19-17

 

[fightgood]

What? Every single Bookie everywhere is going to need Tampa. NO one is betting the BUCS. Denver wins 19-17

That's my concern with this game. Its a late start and funny things happen in those late games.