Nice week QL. Keep it going.
I reloaded on SKF Friday afternoon when I got to the computer. 128.50. Not such a good price. I gave away about $26.00 by not buying it off the 100 support on Thursday when I didn't get to the computer 'till after the close.
You asked earlier why SKF as opposed to FAZ. The primary reason is because I have been following SKF closely for about a year now. I have a better feel for it. These double and triple ETFs are dangerous. Although I have had days where SKF has gained thirty odd points, I have also been burned similarly. Their volatility also makes reading their charts more difficult for me. So I need to stay with what I have the confidence to trade. That's all. Have been doing quite well lately.
You, SSI, and Tiz have helped me alot, mostly with reassurances. Confidence is a huge part of this game. Thanks again.
Here's to continued successes.
I reloaded on SKF Friday afternoon when I got to the computer. 128.50. Not such a good price. I gave away about $26.00 by not buying it off the 100 support on Thursday when I didn't get to the computer 'till after the close.
You asked earlier why SKF as opposed to FAZ. The primary reason is because I have been following SKF closely for about a year now. I have a better feel for it. These double and triple ETFs are dangerous. Although I have had days where SKF has gained thirty odd points, I have also been burned similarly. Their volatility also makes reading their charts more difficult for me. So I need to stay with what I have the confidence to trade. That's all. Have been doing quite well lately.
You, SSI, and Tiz have helped me alot, mostly with reassurances. Confidence is a huge part of this game. Thanks again.
Here's to continued successes.
Thanks Mike. You've helped me out a lot as well with your analysis and you have done well with this ATM machine.
I too have been bitten by these multiple ETF's, losing 40 points in one day. joelatti and SSI always emphasize the importance of putting in stops. The problem I have is putting them in loosely enough so they don't get triggered on a head fake. I've had a spike down cause the ETF to get sold also.
I'm thinking 10 points is enough for FAZ. I can watch during the day every 15 minutes so I can change the stop or re-buy the stock if it gets spiked. That's almost a guarantee that I will get to sell the stock at that price without having to settle for that price if it goes up.
The thing I really don't have a grasp of is when the stock starts going down, when will it stop? I've sold stock that was going down only to have it go up right again.
hno:I guess that's where exprience comes in. It's nice to know that our experience will only make us get better.
:toast:
QL: support is where you want to buy it............ resistance is where you want to sell it, the chart will show you these points..
also get you a notebook and each trading day,,,,,,,,,, write down,,,,,,,,, with your own hand, the Open, the High, the Low and the Close....
look for things such as Higher Highs and Lower Lows..... great indicator is an outside day......... look for the retracement points...
your doing well, so just keep it up..
SSI
also get you a notebook and each trading day,,,,,,,,,, write down,,,,,,,,, with your own hand, the Open, the High, the Low and the Close....
look for things such as Higher Highs and Lower Lows..... great indicator is an outside day......... look for the retracement points...
your doing well, so just keep it up..
SSI
I remember you saying this before regarding setting stops at resistance. I previously neglected to remark that I thought it was a good idea. Thanks for the tip.
:toast:
Another thing I've learned is when the market may change. I'm not sure that Elliot Wave Theory is completely correct but one principle is Wave 4 up should not exceed Wave 1 down.
Wave 1 down started at the beginning of January and ended January 20th at just above 800. Wave 4 started March 10th and ended March 19th at the same level as the bottom of Wave 1 which was just above 800 (see the black drawn line).
If I had been playing this number and waiting to buy then I wouldn't have bought FAZ at 43. Instead, if I would have listened to you and others stating that 800 would be resistance, I would have waited to buy FAZ at 25 like I did on the 19th. I would have bought 750 of my shares at 25 instead of 43 and would have a difference of 18*750 = $13,500.
Monday will be an interesting day for the markets as investors anticipate Treasurey Secretary Tim Geithner's speech at 6pm Eastern. Reports are that he will provide more details on buying toxic assets from banks. Some reports state that he will be using $100 billion from TARP which will be nothing new. Other reports mention that he will be using $1 trillion of new money to buy these troubled assets.
The reason I am posting this now is because I believe futures will reflect how investors feel about this. Futures should be available in a couple hours. Most of the time I believe futures are worthless this early. However, in times of extreme change they can tell the direction of the market in the short-term.
I was considering selling my FAZ if the market shows signs of tanking quickly. On second thought though I may just buy more FAZ causing me to average down. The reason I say this is because I still don't know how to time the market accurately. I am getting better at it though. I do believe any pop up in the markets due to Geithner's speech will be followed by a tanking later on and my FAZ will come back to its current price anyway (in my opinion).
One thing I've been reading is that the markets will behave how they want regardless of news. I do believe news does create a short-term change. However, markets react to how the economy will be in the future.
I've been reading a lot about resistance and support levels in the market. We have reached a resistance level not only in American markets but the British FTSE market and the German DAX market as well. It will be interesting to see if Geithner's news will cause the market to pop up above current resistance.
The reason I am posting this now is because I believe futures will reflect how investors feel about this. Futures should be available in a couple hours. Most of the time I believe futures are worthless this early. However, in times of extreme change they can tell the direction of the market in the short-term.
I was considering selling my FAZ if the market shows signs of tanking quickly. On second thought though I may just buy more FAZ causing me to average down. The reason I say this is because I still don't know how to time the market accurately. I am getting better at it though. I do believe any pop up in the markets due to Geithner's speech will be followed by a tanking later on and my FAZ will come back to its current price anyway (in my opinion).
One thing I've been reading is that the markets will behave how they want regardless of news. I do believe news does create a short-term change. However, markets react to how the economy will be in the future.
I've been reading a lot about resistance and support levels in the market. We have reached a resistance level not only in American markets but the British FTSE market and the German DAX market as well. It will be interesting to see if Geithner's news will cause the market to pop up above current resistance.
interesting stuff..
markets dont react to how the economy will be in the future, the market dictates how the economy will be in the future..
what you see in the markets right now,,,,,,,,,,,,, is how our economy plays out (3-6) months from now... the markets are always the leader..
ill bet you i will be able to tell by 3:00 pm cst tomorrow afternoon, how the markets will react to the speech by Geithner.. probably alot earlier...
watching the SP (the ES) market, which opens at 5:00 pm cst today, will show us the near term direction..
last price 764.00
low we are watching initially 761.50
high we are watching initially 785.50
after that set comes the 750 area (i have 746 marked) and to the upside we have 801.50 marked.
then ultimately 732 as my big support on the ES... if this fails we are going to test contract lows at 662.75
there lays your road map..
your right QL, tomorrow will be interesting as always..
47 more minutes and we can trade..
SSI
markets dont react to how the economy will be in the future, the market dictates how the economy will be in the future..
what you see in the markets right now,,,,,,,,,,,,, is how our economy plays out (3-6) months from now... the markets are always the leader..
ill bet you i will be able to tell by 3:00 pm cst tomorrow afternoon, how the markets will react to the speech by Geithner.. probably alot earlier...
watching the SP (the ES) market, which opens at 5:00 pm cst today, will show us the near term direction..
last price 764.00
low we are watching initially 761.50
high we are watching initially 785.50
after that set comes the 750 area (i have 746 marked) and to the upside we have 801.50 marked.
then ultimately 732 as my big support on the ES... if this fails we are going to test contract lows at 662.75
there lays your road map..
your right QL, tomorrow will be interesting as always..
47 more minutes and we can trade..
SSI
Interesting how you say the market dictates the economy. I won't argue with you. You could be right.
We're looking at +5.00 on the ES early at 769.00 and Dow futures are up 40. I've rarely seen a jump like this in futures be reversed by the time trading starts pre-market the next day but I only have a few months experience watching futures.
We will see Monday morning at 8am.
if you think about it QL, the market has to dictate the economy, it has to be ahead of "how things really are"..
dont read too much into this early action...
i am 100% neutral on direction tomorrow.......
fridays trading could have been manipulated, there was really no massive chart damage...
(732) and (801.50), which will crack first?
a break of either will mean a minimum of 500pts for the dow and thats minimum, this i can guarantee you... question is, which one breaks first. i have no problem, waiting and seeing and we will have a road map to guide us, along the way..
SSI
dont read too much into this early action...
i am 100% neutral on direction tomorrow.......
fridays trading could have been manipulated, there was really no massive chart damage...
(732) and (801.50), which will crack first?
a break of either will mean a minimum of 500pts for the dow and thats minimum, this i can guarantee you... question is, which one breaks first. i have no problem, waiting and seeing and we will have a road map to guide us, along the way..
SSI
QL: we will go above 801.50 or below 732 soon enough and that will show us the direction for the next 500-1000pts on the dow.....
but in the meantime, watch 761.50 and 785.50 for the early indicator on direction, we should see one of those tomorrow..
we are making quite a nice early high right now at 770.25.
just something real quick for you to pay attention to...... watch 773.50 and see if they can take it above that, say to 777 or so.... 773.50 is the 50% retrace from 785.50 (fridays high) and 761.50 (fridays low)....
here is how they do it..........
if we get back to 777 or so, they will try and take it back to 785.50, if it fails right here around 773.50, they will take it back to 761.50
u see it is quite the "cat and mouse" game that is played intraday, they try and move it one way, if they cant, then they take it back the other.
my broker is always saying,,,,,,,, "if it doesnt go higher, then its going to go lower" and vice versa...... i used to get angry for him saying that,,, until i realized just how true that was..
SSI
but in the meantime, watch 761.50 and 785.50 for the early indicator on direction, we should see one of those tomorrow..
we are making quite a nice early high right now at 770.25.
just something real quick for you to pay attention to...... watch 773.50 and see if they can take it above that, say to 777 or so.... 773.50 is the 50% retrace from 785.50 (fridays high) and 761.50 (fridays low)....
here is how they do it..........
if we get back to 777 or so, they will try and take it back to 785.50, if it fails right here around 773.50, they will take it back to 761.50
u see it is quite the "cat and mouse" game that is played intraday, they try and move it one way, if they cant, then they take it back the other.
my broker is always saying,,,,,,,, "if it doesnt go higher, then its going to go lower" and vice versa...... i used to get angry for him saying that,,, until i realized just how true that was..
SSI
For each of the last 3 months DTO has gained in price the day after options expiration. I was thinking about buying DTO today too except that the market is up. Oil often goes up when the market is up because investors feel the economy is coming back and demand for oil will increase.
I see oil is down a little bit however. I'll continue to keep an eye on it though.
I see oil is down a little bit however. I'll continue to keep an eye on it though.
I got stopped on on my DTO at 139.93.
Net: -1159.00
I'm thinking oil takes a little bit longer to react to large changes in the market since oil was lower at the start before I bought DTO.
I'm going to check other times the market has jumped, either up or down, by a couple hundred points to see if oil is lagged a couple hours from the start. That way, the next time the market jumps I can invest accordingly.
Net: -1159.00
I'm thinking oil takes a little bit longer to react to large changes in the market since oil was lower at the start before I bought DTO.
I'm going to check other times the market has jumped, either up or down, by a couple hundred points to see if oil is lagged a couple hours from the start. That way, the next time the market jumps I can invest accordingly.
