intrade elections market article.

[SportSavant]

close up shop?

there are two sides to every trade

intrade isn't taking a side

ok, you are instilling confidence, and of course I understand that they are not supposed to be taking a side. Kind of like how poker sites are simply sitting back and collecting the rake right? (we all know that isnt true all the time).

matchbook (primarily US facing) is also +500.

im sure its simple paranoia and intrade will be fine, but the discrepency to me is strange.

 

[Mistermj]

edit duplicate

 

[Mistermj]

yes and he is viscious sharp

LOL...the most over used term on the planet...he's a "sharp".

There is no such thing...

Show me one...anywhere.

Sharp...my ass.

 

[steaktartar]

LOL...the most over used term on the planet...he's a "sharp".

There is no such thing...

Show me one...anywhere.

Sharp...my ass.

layed 185 and he can take 350.....you're the biggest idiot on this site by 1000 miles .....keep posting you broke paid assclown....and the guy that bet isnt a DEM i can tell you that....if you only knew anything about gambling you would be dangerous........you wont bet you're a pussy like 95% of your bretheren

 

[D2bets]

Intrade is still far bellow the market if you like OBAMA.

I was thinking of re-uping and buying some more, but frankly I cant understand this, how can they have Obama at -350 when others have Mcain at +500?

woudnt the market system take care of this?

D2, do u have a take on this?

My take on this is that I have been buying Obama (and selling McCain short) at Intrade while simultaneously nibbling on McCain at Matchbook. So the discrepancy is my certainly not my fault. The disccrepancy is also less now than it was before. But yeah, I have no idea why this is. I guess not enough people use both Intrade and Matchbook. My understanding is that Intrade is the "off" side of this equation.

 

[D2bets]

LOL...the most over used term on the planet...he's a "sharp".

There is no such thing...

Show me one...anywhere.

Sharp...my ass.

Spoken like someone who is definitely not a sharp.

 

[steaktartar]

Spoken like someone who is definitely not a sharp.

hes fuckin' clueless......this election has been a scalpers dream i use only three credit shops.......basically boils down to this if obama win i make 7k if mccain wins i make 3....and that was being lazy and not trying ....i can only imagine what guys like you and patswin have going

 

[Mistermj]

Spoken like someone who is definitely not a sharp.

LOL...there is no such thing as a sharp.

Only the betting public fools believe in such things.

:nohead:

 

[D2bets]

Just found this note at Intrade from a few weeks ago. Interesting.

Arbitrage Opportunity in Presidential Markets

Thursday, Sep 25, 2008

Periodically we become aware of differences between the market prices on some of our markets with the same markets on other platforms.

Typically these differences are small, and rarely after accounting for transaction costs do they offer significant $ arbitrage opportunity.

Currently there exists a larger than usual difference between Intrade and others on some of the 2008 US presidential election markets, particularly Barack Obama and John McCain.

It is unclear what caused these particularly discrepancies. It has been suggested that arbitrage opportunities persisting for any meaningful period of time is a sign of a young industry.

 

[D2bets]

Intrade has finally caught up with the market and Obama now trading around 87 (-670). What a gift Obama was in the 50's and 60's and 70's.

 

[SportSavant]

Intrade has finally caught up with the market and Obama now trading around 87 (-670). What a gift Obama was in the 50's and 60's and 70's.

thankful I got the shares in obama that I have, but regretful that I got spooked by Intrades funny markets and didnt buy more....

 

[D2bets]

thankful I got the shares in obama that I have, but regretful that I got spooked by Intrades funny markets and didnt buy more....

Are you nibbling back the other way. I may sell a few shares in the 87's. I don't think it can go toooo much higher before election day. Hard to imagine going into the 90's and trading over 10-1.

 

[SportSavant]

Are you nibbling back the other way. I may sell a few shares in the 87's. I don't think it can go toooo much higher before election day. Hard to imagine going into the 90's and trading over 10-1.

i did a touch of nibbling a betfair and matchbook.... a bit early albeit, got some at +500 while its +600 today.

betfair +620 or more available now.

same at matchbook.

 

[D2bets]

i did a touch of nibbling a betfair and matchbook.... a bit early albeit, got some at +500 while its +600 today.

betfair +620 or more available now.

same at matchbook.

Yeah, for once, it is actually titled the other way at Intrade. Sold some at 87.3 this morning....that's +687...AND as a bid later matched it has no fee and wipes out the eventual expiry fee there too. Better than possibly paying a fee both ways at Intrade/MB/BF.

 

[SportSavant]

fwiw, a solid out by the name of caribsports still has -475, $100 to win max, but you ca bet it over and over again.

ive already hit them 6 times when they were at -240 when the rest of the world was at -400 and they have advised me, no more betting on obama.

 

[SportSavant]

D2, are u an paddy power account holder? i figured you would be?

 

[D2bets]

D2, are u an paddy power account holder? i figured you would be?

No. Do they even accept Americans?

 

[SportSavant]

i thot u were in england

 

[D2bets]

i thot u were in england

Not bloody likely, mate, though I do a pretty good accent. %^_

 

[SportSavant]

paddy power is a giant, but no yanks, i dont play there coz they dont have any unique offerings on US pointing sports, but probably safer than most US banks at this time to hold your money.

i agree with the above post where they say its simply a marketing stunt which costs em a million at most but is well worth the marketing cost.