"Dangerous on the Lead"
72-1 winner at Parx yesterday prompted me to write this factoid on Jockey Lery Pinero.
I've been aware of this jock since watching him coax 45-1 shot FULL OF COURAGE to a wire-to-wire shocker on 12-8-2015 at MVR. That horse has not hit the board since.
Pinero is particularly effective with frontrunners and longshots. Both categories yield high percentages and ROI's.
-- breakdown by styles --
Front Runners 19/112 (17%) roi 2.20 (Return On Investment $2.20 for each $1)
Pace Pressers 6/56 (11%) roi 0.38
Stalkers 2/139 (1%) roi 0.01
Closers 2/94 (2%) roi 0.02
Deep Closers 1/106 (1%) roi 0.01
-- breakdown by winning style --
Front Runners 19/30 (63%)
Pace Pressers 6/30 (20%)
Stalkers 2/30 (2%)
Closers 2/30 (2%)
Deep Closers 1/30 (1%)
-- breakdown by odds --
4/5 to 2: 2/13 (15%) roi 0.43
2 to 4: 4/39 (10%) roi 0.47
4 to 8: 5/61 (8%) roi 0.55
8 to 16: 7/87 (8%) roi 1.01
16 to 32: 7/124 (6%) roi 1.22
over 32: 5/183 (3%) roi 1.49
How many betting angles do you know that have a triple-your-money roi?? Pinero on a front-runner ... that's one.
Pinero is a bug boy with 30 wins currently, and gets a 7-pound break. This will be a contributing factor. I think weight changes to 5 after 50?
Longshots. He has dropped a bomb each month in the last 5. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the Parx longshot winning trainers are the same ones that used Mychel Sanchez to bring in the bombs when he had his bug.
Longshot winners (19-1 or more)
--------------------------------------------------
12/8/2015 MVR race 1 (8f DIRT MAIDEN CLAIMING)
Horse: FULL OF COURAGE
Trainer: SILVA_FERNANDO
Odds: 45.4
RunStyle: Frontrunner
6/8/2016 PEN race 7 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: RAVEN GYPSY
Trainer: BOBADILLA_JOSE
Odds: 24.1
RunStyle: Stalker
6/16/2016 PEN race 2 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: RAVEN GYPSY
Trainer: BOBADILLA_JOSE
Odds: 20.3
RunStyle: Pace Presser
10/9/2016 PRX race 1 (8f 70yds DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: EMPRESS CARO
Trainer: DAY_DIANE
Odds: 19.0
RunStyle: Frontrunner
10/25/2016 PRX race 2 (8f 70yds DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: FOREST FRIENDS
Trainer: STLEWIS_URIAH
Odds: 57.7
RunStyle: Frontrunner
11/13/2016 PRX race 3 (6f DIRT MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT)
Horse: COURT NOTE
Trainer: STLEWIS_URIAH
Odds: 38.4
RunStyle: Closer
12/26/2016 PRX race 6 (5.5f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: TROUBLE WITH GIRLS
Trainer: TAPSAS_ELIAS
Odds: 28.9
RunStyle: Frontrunner
1/31/2017 PRX race 9 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: REPENTANT
Trainer: DOTOLO_DAVID
Odds: 53.6
RunStyle: Frontrunner
2/27/2017 PRX race 4 (8f 70yds DIRT MAIDEN CLAIMING)
Horse: COOL HUMOR
Trainer: DAY_DIANE
Odds: 72.9
RunStyle: Frontrunner
72-1 winner at Parx yesterday prompted me to write this factoid on Jockey Lery Pinero.
I've been aware of this jock since watching him coax 45-1 shot FULL OF COURAGE to a wire-to-wire shocker on 12-8-2015 at MVR. That horse has not hit the board since.
Pinero is particularly effective with frontrunners and longshots. Both categories yield high percentages and ROI's.
-- breakdown by styles --
Front Runners 19/112 (17%) roi 2.20 (Return On Investment $2.20 for each $1)
Pace Pressers 6/56 (11%) roi 0.38
Stalkers 2/139 (1%) roi 0.01
Closers 2/94 (2%) roi 0.02
Deep Closers 1/106 (1%) roi 0.01
-- breakdown by winning style --
Front Runners 19/30 (63%)
Pace Pressers 6/30 (20%)
Stalkers 2/30 (2%)
Closers 2/30 (2%)
Deep Closers 1/30 (1%)
-- breakdown by odds --
4/5 to 2: 2/13 (15%) roi 0.43
2 to 4: 4/39 (10%) roi 0.47
4 to 8: 5/61 (8%) roi 0.55
8 to 16: 7/87 (8%) roi 1.01
16 to 32: 7/124 (6%) roi 1.22
over 32: 5/183 (3%) roi 1.49
How many betting angles do you know that have a triple-your-money roi?? Pinero on a front-runner ... that's one.
Pinero is a bug boy with 30 wins currently, and gets a 7-pound break. This will be a contributing factor. I think weight changes to 5 after 50?
Longshots. He has dropped a bomb each month in the last 5. I don't think it's a coincidence that many of the Parx longshot winning trainers are the same ones that used Mychel Sanchez to bring in the bombs when he had his bug.
Longshot winners (19-1 or more)
--------------------------------------------------
12/8/2015 MVR race 1 (8f DIRT MAIDEN CLAIMING)
Horse: FULL OF COURAGE
Trainer: SILVA_FERNANDO
Odds: 45.4
RunStyle: Frontrunner
6/8/2016 PEN race 7 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: RAVEN GYPSY
Trainer: BOBADILLA_JOSE
Odds: 24.1
RunStyle: Stalker
6/16/2016 PEN race 2 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: RAVEN GYPSY
Trainer: BOBADILLA_JOSE
Odds: 20.3
RunStyle: Pace Presser
10/9/2016 PRX race 1 (8f 70yds DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: EMPRESS CARO
Trainer: DAY_DIANE
Odds: 19.0
RunStyle: Frontrunner
10/25/2016 PRX race 2 (8f 70yds DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: FOREST FRIENDS
Trainer: STLEWIS_URIAH
Odds: 57.7
RunStyle: Frontrunner
11/13/2016 PRX race 3 (6f DIRT MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT)
Horse: COURT NOTE
Trainer: STLEWIS_URIAH
Odds: 38.4
RunStyle: Closer
12/26/2016 PRX race 6 (5.5f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: TROUBLE WITH GIRLS
Trainer: TAPSAS_ELIAS
Odds: 28.9
RunStyle: Frontrunner
1/31/2017 PRX race 9 (6f DIRT CLAIMING)
Horse: REPENTANT
Trainer: DOTOLO_DAVID
Odds: 53.6
RunStyle: Frontrunner
2/27/2017 PRX race 4 (8f 70yds DIRT MAIDEN CLAIMING)
Horse: COOL HUMOR
Trainer: DAY_DIANE
Odds: 72.9
RunStyle: Frontrunner
Nice recap Prof. Since he is an apprentice rider I always look at horses he rides. I was shown an angle by a former NY leading trainer regarding trainers using apprentice riders. I have used it with pretty good success. I tracked over 500 races when I started using it and it produced a 16% win ratio with the avg mutual being $17 plus. At 1 time it was over $23. Additionally these horses were in the exacta over 50% of the time. Still works today.
Irad Oritz Jr.'s 5th place finish aboard 1/5 shot at Oaklawn Saturday prompted some research.
Stats when riding the Odds-On favorite in a Stakes race during last 18 months.
Non-NewYork and Graded numbers are low.
Odds-on Fav : 23
Finished 1st: 11 (48%)
Finished 2nd: 8
Finished 3rd: 1
Finished Off: 3 (odds: 2/5, 1/5, 1/5)
Odds 1/5: 3/5
Odds 2/5: 5/7
Odds 3/5: 1/4
Odds 4/5: 2/7
NewYork: 10/19
non-NY : 1/4
GradedStk : 2/10
Non-Graded: 9/13
List of graded stakes in code box
Stats when riding the Odds-On favorite in a Stakes race during last 18 months.
Non-NewYork and Graded numbers are low.
Odds-on Fav : 23
Finished 1st: 11 (48%)
Finished 2nd: 8
Finished 3rd: 1
Finished Off: 3 (odds: 2/5, 1/5, 1/5)
Odds 1/5: 3/5
Odds 2/5: 5/7
Odds 3/5: 1/4
Odds 4/5: 2/7
NewYork: 10/19
non-NY : 1/4
GradedStk : 2/10
Non-Graded: 9/13
List of graded stakes in code box
Code:
9/19/2015 PRX race 8
6f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 3YO OPEN
Purse:$300k
LIMOUSINE LIBERAL
Post:2 of 7
Finished:2 Beaten:0.25 Odds:0.8
WinnerPubPickNum:5
WinnerOdds:13.2
Trainer:COLEBROOK_BEN
1/30/2016 AQU race 4
8.5f INNER DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 3YO OPEN
Purse:$250k
FLEXIBILITY
Post:2 of 6
Finished:4 Beaten:2.0 Odds:0.55
WinnerPubPickNum:2
WinnerOdds:3.75
Trainer:BROWN_CHAD
8/14/2016 SAR race 9
6.5f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade2 2YO OPEN
Purse:$200k
RECRUITING READY
Post:5 of 5
Finished:2 Beaten:1.0 Odds:0.45
WinnerPubPickNum:3
WinnerOdds:9.2
Trainer:DEPAZ_HORACIO
8/27/2016 SAR race 12
8.5f TURF FIRM
STAKES Grade2 3YO+ FM OPEN
Purse:$400k
LADY ELI
Post:2 of 7
Finished:2 Beaten:0.75 Odds:0.9
WinnerPubPickNum:5
WinnerOdds:27.75
Trainer:BROWN_CHAD
10/8/2016 BEL race 6
10f INNER TURF FIRM
STAKES Grade1 3YO+ FM OPEN
Purse:$500k
LADY ELI
Post:5 of 6
Finished:1 Beaten:-0.75 Odds:0.85
WinnerPubPickNum:1
WinnerOdds:0.85
Trainer:BROWN_CHAD
10/29/2016 BEL race 4
8.5f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 3YO+ FM OPEN
Purse:$200k
LEWIS BAY
Post:2 of 7
Finished:1 Beaten:-5.25 Odds:0.45
WinnerPubPickNum:1
WinnerOdds:0.45
Trainer:BROWN_CHAD
11/24/2016 AQU race 8
6f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 3YO+ OPEN
Purse:$200k
STALLWALKIN'DUDE
Post:8 of 8
Finished:2 Beaten:0.25 Odds:0.9
WinnerPubPickNum:8
WinnerOdds:32.25
Trainer:JACOBSON_DAVID
11/26/2016 AQU race 3
9f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 3YO FM OPEN
Purse:$250k
LEWIS BAY
Post:2 of 7
Finished:2 Beaten:0.25 Odds:0.65
WinnerPubPickNum:5
WinnerOdds:20.8
Trainer:BROWN_CHAD
1/16/2017 AQ2 race 5
6f INNER DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade3 4YO+ OPEN
Purse:$125k
STALLWALKIN'DUDE
Post:5 of 6
Finished:3 Beaten:0.37 Odds:0.9
WinnerPubPickNum:2
WinnerOdds:2.65
Trainer:JACOBSON_DAVID
3/18/2017 OP race 7
8.5f DIRT FAST
STAKES Grade2 4YO+ FM OPEN
Purse:$350k
TERRA PROMESSA
Post:2 of 7
Finished:5 Beaten:5.0 Odds:0.3
WinnerPubPickNum:3
WinnerOdds:12.1
Trainer:ASMUSSEN_STEVENWell if you're reading this one, pay close attention cuz you will make some money tailing a 2-way fiddler.
DEFER HEAVEN and SHAFT OF LIGHT (mentioned above) blew up 2 more tote boards at GP over the winter, finishing off the board at 3:5 and 1:5 respectively, after the incident at Parx.
Obvious dumping to cash on short fields. Note: this type of dumping is becoming more and more common in 6-7 horse fields because it is cheap to wheel the rest of the field.
Common denominator = Monster Racing Stables owns both horses.
Navarro has won 44% and finished ITM 74% in the East this year, excluding Florida and New York where his stats are human-like.
The tell-tale sign of a fiddler is a notable ROI increase with tote odds and lack of normal win% drop off :
less than 4:5 (23/38) 61% ROI$0.86
4:5 to 2 (35/78) 45% ROI$1.02
2.1 to 4 (13/36) 36% ROI$1.36
4.1 to 8 ( 3/13) 23% ROI$1.38
8.1 to 16( 1/3) 33% ROI$3.07
Navarro w/Monster 24 starts 15 wins (63%), 3 place, 4 show ... ITM 92% ROI $1.72
less than 4:5 ( 4/5) 80% ROI$1.12
4:5 to 2 ( 7/12) 58% ROI$1.35
2.1 to 4 ( 2/4) 50% ROI$1.87
4.1 to 8 ( 2/2) 100% ROI$6.00
8.1 to 16( 0/1) 33% ROI$0
Here's Monster owner with Navarro video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAemuEqNZYE
ointer:Libel prevents us from calling people cheats. Instead I post data evidence that supports theories and/or conspiracies.
If you've read my posts over the past year about heavy favorites losing intentionally, you'll see a trend that is predictable and bettable, and/or avoidable. Data evidence postulates breaking of the rules as ALL horses are supposed to be running to win the race to the best of their ability. That is the rules.
So if 4:1 horses are winning at 25% clip and 1:1 horses are winning at 10% clip, it doesn't take a genius to see what is going on .... cheating. The underlying cause doesn't matter to me, the result does.
When Navarro horses left GP, their speed figures (performances) drastically improved at MTH. And specifically their final fractions, or finish. I would use the term 'stamina enhanced' because these horses have many races recorded and nothing else can explain sudden drastic changes to many runners.
I would think jurisdiction plays a role as these patterns aren't maintained in Florida or New York.
The numbers I've posted about the barn are seriously abnormal. You should realize that without me saying it.
My take on the video ...
They were watching the late stretch run of the race when recording started. With all eyes on the TV, they didn't notice YET they were being recorded.
Shouting "Adios amigos" and "The Juice", at this stage implies horse was likely drawing away and clear with reference to a stamina enhancer. Once they realized they are being recorded, it is changed to "Vegetable Juice" as a crude cover-up. After all the hoop-lah and "F*ck'em" comments it is apparent the loud-mouth's heart-rate is up substantially. Either he just lost a ton of money or just won a ton of money. The hi-five with the trainer confirms he won. And of course more "F*ck'em" comments to conclude the show. Don't think he was THAT excited from winning the taxable purse money. More likely, the untaxable.
If you missed my Delaware post yesterday, heavy Navarro favorites lost the first 2 races in short fields creating a big Double payoff. Ferrer was named to ride. He doesn't have a history of losing with heavy odds-on Navarro favorites. So I didn't suspect the dump when I posted my initial picks. When switched to Castro, that is a whole nother thing. As a matter of fact, his only run for barn at Delaware was a 3-5 loser, and lost 54% (7/13) of the time with barn runners 3:5 or lower.
