IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
What was and what will be.
With the World Series over (As soon as the future line on baseball lines come out POUND the Under on the Marlins. Teams that improvement by 15 or more games, Play Against the following season when looking at the total wins. This is a 70% system.) Now that the Lebron and Carmelo era is just beginning our focus can be distracted. To our benefit the lines makers also have a full plate of activities, so opportunities exist if you choose wisely. I’m going to change things up a bit today and focus some thoughts a “Survival Saturday.” These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses.
Last week’s Winners 7-4 70-40 63.4% Last week’s Losers 9-1 69-12 85.1%
This unique tool just keeps working right along.
These Bears not out of the woods.
Baylor loses 56-0 to Texas. The responses last week were anywhere from 130 to 310 accumulated points for Baylor to lose by. Thanks to everyone for responding. Obviously the higher number is looking pretty good right now.
Quick Hits…………
Every week the exploits of Texas Tech are covered. This week couple of teams from Texas surpassed the Red Raiders. TCU and Houston put on quite an offensive show. The Horned Frogs scores 62 points, had 36 FD 407 yr. 375 yp. for total of 782. The Cougars had 55 points, 27 FD 250 yr. 434 yp. Houston QB Kolb accounted for 578 yards running and passing. FYI: Houston covered the spot by a ½ point……The Golden Gophers off two SU losses at home crushed the Illini on the road 36-10 and out gained them 575-310……New Mexico ended Utah 7-0 ATS record with a 47-35 road dog upset. This was no fluke as The Lobos out rushed the Utes 407-80……Arkansas State has now been shutout in back to back games 56-0 and 49-0…..N.C. State is still struggling with their running game. In spite of 7-point victory over Duke, they were out rushed 229-58 by a so-so Blue Devil rushing attack……Tenn/Bama contest was a classic…..If Impact Sports has a Heismann ballot WR Fitzgerald would be in the top slot.
Team of the Weak
Ohio U. has had a couple of wins this season, and had a few near misses with just seven point losses to W. Michigan and Northern Illinois. This past weekend the Bobcats fell under the mystical spell of U. Buffalo football. Maybe is was the Buffalo wings sauce that was still left on their fingers that caused the 4 TO’s. Or possibly Ohio U. thought their bye week started last week. Whatever the reason, they became the Bulls first victim in 19 tries. For this underwhelming effort the Bobcats have earned our Team of the Weak.
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 13-3 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game.
NFL Notes
Pass this week to talk about “Survival Saturday”.
Road Favorites continue to be unreal with 22-9 ATS and 12-2 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56% of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable and profitable if you’re paying attention. I will discuss possible reasons for this next week.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-0 ATS record 7-1 To Date SU 71-11 86% ATS 65-17 79%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close.
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 2-2
Season to Date 34-27
Last Week NFL 3-1
Season to Date 8-12
Survival Saturday
Michigan @Michigan State
The Wolverines are clearly the more talented team. For the Spartans to win, they must stop the Michigan running game and take away QB Navarre’s first pass option. If the Spartans can force this issue, Navarre will throw a couple of up for grabs, that can turn into turnovers. QB Smoker is experienced and should keep is team in the game at home. The Michigan State is +15 in the turnover department and has gone four straight games without committing one themselves. The Wolverines special teams have not been that all year and Coach Smith of the Spartans prides himself in the area. The home team is 13-4 ATS in this instate rivalry and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS.
Georgia vs. Florida
The world’s outdoor cocktail party should be dandy. Three weeks ago this looked like an easy Bulldogs win. However, Georgia is off two uninspired victories and Florida is off two huge road dog wins. The Bulldogs injuries continue to mount which would certainly explain the problems they’ve been having. Florida is young team riding the wave of momentum they have created. One area this game could turn on is coaching. As many of you are aware, I think C. Zook is a dolt. I give him all the credit for the last two games for having a prepared team and finally utilizing his talent. Both of those games were in a strong underdog role. This is a more even game with Gators just 2.5 point underdogs. Georgia Coach Richt is proving to be a solid pigskin coach who’s only loss last year was to Florida. This contest looks like a trustworthy No Play to me.
Oklahoma State @Oklahoma
When you watch the Sooners play, does the game seem frantic to you? Everything just appears to be moving very fast and border line out of control. This is the style C.Stoops likes to play at. The key for Okie State is the same as the previous two years. Control the tempo by running effectively with RB Bell and pick your spots with WR Fields. One disadvantage the Cowboys will have is that they will have the Sooners full attention this year. The last two years this was the last regular season game for both teams which helped the Cowboys immensely. Oklahoma has that swagger again of a champion and they realize they are a great team. Oklahoma State is 15-6 ATS against Oklahoma in their last 21 meetings. If the Sooners can jump to an early lead, look for them to step on the Cowboys throat just like they did against Texas earlier this season.
Nebraska @Texas
In many ways to Impact Sports, this is the most interesting game for just one reason. MANHOOD. The Cornhuskers are about going out and attempting to run the ball down your throat for 60 minutes. Texas has faced two of these types of physical teams and been lassoed by both Arkansas and Oklahoma. Can the Longhorns finally step up and play tough football against a strong opponent? Or will the physicality of the Cornhuskers once again be the demise of Texas? All you need to watch is the line play for this Big 12 beauty to see who will win. Underdog is 4-1 ATS.
Washington State @USC
As of this writing the only team that would a touchdown or less dog to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl would be the Trojans in our opinion. C. Carroll’s team is playing great football and laying the wood to their opposition. No real weakness on this club. Washington State has not covered a game since September. The Cougars have evolved into a one dimensional team having gained over a 100 yards rushing once over their last five games. This element is very important in trying to control a game on the road. With Trojans offense so effective and the Wild Bunch 2 licking their chops at this kind of opportunity we’re not certain how Washington State wins. Just like the Georgia game, the only contest USC lost last year was to WSU up in Pullman. If the Cougars can capitalize on a few big plays they could sneak under the number. Historically speaking, Washington State is just 6-16 in November road games.
Miami-Fl @Virginia Tech
What a difference a week makes! This marquee match-up was the most intriguing one of the bunch. Now it is just one of the top games on the slate this weekend. An obvious key is the psyche of Tech. They did not lose by some unusual circumstance, they got blown off the ball on both sides for 3+ hours by West Virginia. A problem that we noticed with this team early on was the linebackers get caught up inside on perimeter plays or can not get off blocks up the gut. Look for the ‘Canes to continue to exploit this weakness Saturday Night. In looking to wager on this game, either play Miami or pass is our recommendation.
What was and what will be.
With the World Series over (As soon as the future line on baseball lines come out POUND the Under on the Marlins. Teams that improvement by 15 or more games, Play Against the following season when looking at the total wins. This is a 70% system.) Now that the Lebron and Carmelo era is just beginning our focus can be distracted. To our benefit the lines makers also have a full plate of activities, so opportunities exist if you choose wisely. I’m going to change things up a bit today and focus some thoughts a “Survival Saturday.” These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses.
Last week’s Winners 7-4 70-40 63.4% Last week’s Losers 9-1 69-12 85.1%
This unique tool just keeps working right along.
These Bears not out of the woods.
Baylor loses 56-0 to Texas. The responses last week were anywhere from 130 to 310 accumulated points for Baylor to lose by. Thanks to everyone for responding. Obviously the higher number is looking pretty good right now.
Quick Hits…………
Every week the exploits of Texas Tech are covered. This week couple of teams from Texas surpassed the Red Raiders. TCU and Houston put on quite an offensive show. The Horned Frogs scores 62 points, had 36 FD 407 yr. 375 yp. for total of 782. The Cougars had 55 points, 27 FD 250 yr. 434 yp. Houston QB Kolb accounted for 578 yards running and passing. FYI: Houston covered the spot by a ½ point……The Golden Gophers off two SU losses at home crushed the Illini on the road 36-10 and out gained them 575-310……New Mexico ended Utah 7-0 ATS record with a 47-35 road dog upset. This was no fluke as The Lobos out rushed the Utes 407-80……Arkansas State has now been shutout in back to back games 56-0 and 49-0…..N.C. State is still struggling with their running game. In spite of 7-point victory over Duke, they were out rushed 229-58 by a so-so Blue Devil rushing attack……Tenn/Bama contest was a classic…..If Impact Sports has a Heismann ballot WR Fitzgerald would be in the top slot.
Team of the Weak
Ohio U. has had a couple of wins this season, and had a few near misses with just seven point losses to W. Michigan and Northern Illinois. This past weekend the Bobcats fell under the mystical spell of U. Buffalo football. Maybe is was the Buffalo wings sauce that was still left on their fingers that caused the 4 TO’s. Or possibly Ohio U. thought their bye week started last week. Whatever the reason, they became the Bulls first victim in 19 tries. For this underwhelming effort the Bobcats have earned our Team of the Weak.
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 13-3 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game.
NFL Notes
Pass this week to talk about “Survival Saturday”.
Road Favorites continue to be unreal with 22-9 ATS and 12-2 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56% of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable and profitable if you’re paying attention. I will discuss possible reasons for this next week.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-0 ATS record 7-1 To Date SU 71-11 86% ATS 65-17 79%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close.
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 2-2
Season to Date 34-27
Last Week NFL 3-1
Season to Date 8-12
Survival Saturday
Michigan @Michigan State
The Wolverines are clearly the more talented team. For the Spartans to win, they must stop the Michigan running game and take away QB Navarre’s first pass option. If the Spartans can force this issue, Navarre will throw a couple of up for grabs, that can turn into turnovers. QB Smoker is experienced and should keep is team in the game at home. The Michigan State is +15 in the turnover department and has gone four straight games without committing one themselves. The Wolverines special teams have not been that all year and Coach Smith of the Spartans prides himself in the area. The home team is 13-4 ATS in this instate rivalry and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS.
Georgia vs. Florida
The world’s outdoor cocktail party should be dandy. Three weeks ago this looked like an easy Bulldogs win. However, Georgia is off two uninspired victories and Florida is off two huge road dog wins. The Bulldogs injuries continue to mount which would certainly explain the problems they’ve been having. Florida is young team riding the wave of momentum they have created. One area this game could turn on is coaching. As many of you are aware, I think C. Zook is a dolt. I give him all the credit for the last two games for having a prepared team and finally utilizing his talent. Both of those games were in a strong underdog role. This is a more even game with Gators just 2.5 point underdogs. Georgia Coach Richt is proving to be a solid pigskin coach who’s only loss last year was to Florida. This contest looks like a trustworthy No Play to me.
Oklahoma State @Oklahoma
When you watch the Sooners play, does the game seem frantic to you? Everything just appears to be moving very fast and border line out of control. This is the style C.Stoops likes to play at. The key for Okie State is the same as the previous two years. Control the tempo by running effectively with RB Bell and pick your spots with WR Fields. One disadvantage the Cowboys will have is that they will have the Sooners full attention this year. The last two years this was the last regular season game for both teams which helped the Cowboys immensely. Oklahoma has that swagger again of a champion and they realize they are a great team. Oklahoma State is 15-6 ATS against Oklahoma in their last 21 meetings. If the Sooners can jump to an early lead, look for them to step on the Cowboys throat just like they did against Texas earlier this season.
Nebraska @Texas
In many ways to Impact Sports, this is the most interesting game for just one reason. MANHOOD. The Cornhuskers are about going out and attempting to run the ball down your throat for 60 minutes. Texas has faced two of these types of physical teams and been lassoed by both Arkansas and Oklahoma. Can the Longhorns finally step up and play tough football against a strong opponent? Or will the physicality of the Cornhuskers once again be the demise of Texas? All you need to watch is the line play for this Big 12 beauty to see who will win. Underdog is 4-1 ATS.
Washington State @USC
As of this writing the only team that would a touchdown or less dog to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl would be the Trojans in our opinion. C. Carroll’s team is playing great football and laying the wood to their opposition. No real weakness on this club. Washington State has not covered a game since September. The Cougars have evolved into a one dimensional team having gained over a 100 yards rushing once over their last five games. This element is very important in trying to control a game on the road. With Trojans offense so effective and the Wild Bunch 2 licking their chops at this kind of opportunity we’re not certain how Washington State wins. Just like the Georgia game, the only contest USC lost last year was to WSU up in Pullman. If the Cougars can capitalize on a few big plays they could sneak under the number. Historically speaking, Washington State is just 6-16 in November road games.
Miami-Fl @Virginia Tech
What a difference a week makes! This marquee match-up was the most intriguing one of the bunch. Now it is just one of the top games on the slate this weekend. An obvious key is the psyche of Tech. They did not lose by some unusual circumstance, they got blown off the ball on both sides for 3+ hours by West Virginia. A problem that we noticed with this team early on was the linebackers get caught up inside on perimeter plays or can not get off blocks up the gut. Look for the ‘Canes to continue to exploit this weakness Saturday Night. In looking to wager on this game, either play Miami or pass is our recommendation.
