IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
What was and what will be.
I will explain why the Miami Dolphins can not win the Super Bowl. I will ask an interesting question for you to reply to about the Baylor Bears. I will explain the importance of running the ball and stopping the run to make you Money. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses.
Last week the Winners were fabulous with a 10-2 record, bring the updated total to 63-36 63%. That means the Winners are 20-6 77% over the last two weeks. This could very important given that these teams are now in their stretch runs and will continue to pile up the victories and the covers for the rest of the season based on history. The Losers had a rare off week, with Only a 5-3 record to fall to 60-11 84%. ( I wish we could all fail like this.) This tool is very useful in helping you determine if the teams you like to win or lose are something you should consider.
These Bears not out of the woods.
Baylor has had a nice season to date, with a 3-4 record. However, before the wild throng of Waconians (best guess) gets to excited about 2003 check out the rest of the schedule: 10/25 Texas -11/1 @K-State – 11/8 Texas Tech – 11/15@Oklahoma – 11/22 Okla. State
Just for fun send me an email what you think the combined number of points Baylor will lose by in these five contests. My private email is rndsportz@cox.net I will post results that are amusing.
Quick Hits…………
Miami showed no letdown from beating FSU with a through whipping of Temple 52-14. 601-171 total yards and a 28-6 FD advantage…...Purdue won and covered against the Badgers with a last second FG. The Boilermakers held a 477-293 yardage advantage, including a rare 100 offensive plays. Badgers stayed in game with fumble recovery and punt return for touchdowns.…..Ohio State won and covered as a -2.5 HF while producing NO offensive TD’s and 56 yards rushing on 42 attempts for a robust 1.3 ypc….. Buckeyes O-Line is brutal and QB Krenzel can’t throw it in Lake Erie….. Okie State and Texas Tech combined for 1,334 total yards which to certain degree was no surprise, yet still impressive. The two teams passing line looked like this 61-97 873 yards….. The 180 degrees contrast was Navy and Rice who passed for a combined 93 yards on 12-24…..Auburn’s 2003 model ‘Cadillac” Williams ran for 6 TD’s vs. Miss. State…..Who are the last two unbeaten teams in the SEC? Surprisingly Auburn and Mississippi who looked anything but unbeatable on 9/6 when they lost to Georgia Tech and Memphis respectively…..K-State Wildcats won impressively on the scoreboard by 29 points, but were out gained 420-371 by a poor Colorado squad……Northern Illinois bounced back off two uneven performances by corralling the Broncos 37-10. 29-11 in FD’s and holding Western Michigan to -2 yards on 18 carries…..With a minor upset of Notre Dame (notice we said ‘minor’) Navy could go 10-2 this season.
Why we wager.
North Texas (-14.5) was cruising to an easy victory when they gave up a late 4th quarter TD to win 37-27 and to spoil a 3-1 record for this newsletter.
California was dominating UCLA but kept making silly mistakes including having a blocked FG for a Bruins TD. Trailing 20-12 as a 3-point dog, a 4th down 35 yard touchdown prayer is answered. Impact Sports was thrilled (one of our selections) to have a chance and was now hoping the Bears miss the 2-point conversation. No such luck. The game goes to OT and the Bruins make a 41 yard FG, while the Bears miss a 50 yarder. This was the full range of emotion. Frustrating throughout, defeated, unbelievable joy, disappointment yet hopeful and finally left with blandness over a Push. This is called serious fun.
Team of the Weak
Last season New Mexico State Coach T. Samuel was getting lots of love (obscure Stuart Scott reference) in leading the Aggies to a 7-5 record and competing for the Sun Belt title. Including the last two games of last season, Coach Tony’s squad is 2-8 SU. That includes a loss last week to the previous 0 for 2003 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
If you’re a loyal Las Cruces graduate who wagers on the Aggies, I was wondering how your new part-time job was working out at Home Depot since your alma mater is a 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen lined games. GO AGGIES!
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 11-3 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game. This week’s teams to look at are Tampa Bay and Carolina.
NFL Notes
The Chargers broke into the win column with sensational performance from RB Tomlinson who rushed for 200 yards…..Giants keep finding ways to lose. 25-9 FD advantage and 339-134 total yards dominance. A basically unforced error by K. Collins turns this game around…..Bucs are finding out what Super Bowl Champs mean the next year…..Possible trouble brewing in Washington as team is no-show on the emotion meter in Buffalo…..QB Vick not coming back anytime soon and possible coaching change possible after this season. Just last season, this team was “the team of the future” for the foreseeable future…..Only two teams do not have a RB who has had a 20+ yard gain this season, can you name them? Ready, Cincinnati and Indy.
Road Favorites continue to be unreal with 21-7 ATS and 11-2 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56%of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable and profitable if you’re paying attention.
Fish Fried in Miami
The reason why Miami WILL NOT play in the Super Bowl. Answer is Coach Wannstedt. Chicago fans were elated to have this guy out of town. Only because he was a Coach Jimmy disciple did he so quickly land on his feet in Miami. If you saw the unbelievable conservative play calling the Fish utilized at the end of regulation, which ended in a blocked field goal you understand exactly what I mean. Coaches that WIN Super Bowls have to have the courage to lose games, not hang on to win games.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 6-2 ATS record 6-2 To Date SU 63-11 85% ATS 58-16 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
Why Run?
As you have followed my musings, you understand that I am a huge proponent of running the ball and stopping the run. Here is the necessary proof of why I believe in this from the NFL season to date:
The top eight rushing teams in rushing attempts have a combined record 38-13 SU and 34-17 ATS 66%.
The top eight teams in holding their opponents to the fewest rushing attempts have a combined record of 37-12 SU and 35-12-2 ATS 74%.
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 7-5
Season to Date 32-25
Last Week NFL 0-0
Season to Date 5-11
Surprising Spreads
Kansas State -20 over Kansas Don’t kid yourself into believing the Wildcats are all the way back.
Georgia -29 over UAB Bulldogs have Florida next week and Blazers off 3 straight ATS wins.
Pittsburgh -1 over St. Louis Not saying Steelers can’t win game but favored?
Dallas/TB total 36.5 Both teams are playing good to very good defense, but aren’t these the #3 and # 4 offenses in the NFL?
What was and what will be.
I will explain why the Miami Dolphins can not win the Super Bowl. I will ask an interesting question for you to reply to about the Baylor Bears. I will explain the importance of running the ball and stopping the run to make you Money. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses.
Last week the Winners were fabulous with a 10-2 record, bring the updated total to 63-36 63%. That means the Winners are 20-6 77% over the last two weeks. This could very important given that these teams are now in their stretch runs and will continue to pile up the victories and the covers for the rest of the season based on history. The Losers had a rare off week, with Only a 5-3 record to fall to 60-11 84%. ( I wish we could all fail like this.) This tool is very useful in helping you determine if the teams you like to win or lose are something you should consider.
These Bears not out of the woods.
Baylor has had a nice season to date, with a 3-4 record. However, before the wild throng of Waconians (best guess) gets to excited about 2003 check out the rest of the schedule: 10/25 Texas -11/1 @K-State – 11/8 Texas Tech – 11/15@Oklahoma – 11/22 Okla. State
Just for fun send me an email what you think the combined number of points Baylor will lose by in these five contests. My private email is rndsportz@cox.net I will post results that are amusing.
Quick Hits…………
Miami showed no letdown from beating FSU with a through whipping of Temple 52-14. 601-171 total yards and a 28-6 FD advantage…...Purdue won and covered against the Badgers with a last second FG. The Boilermakers held a 477-293 yardage advantage, including a rare 100 offensive plays. Badgers stayed in game with fumble recovery and punt return for touchdowns.…..Ohio State won and covered as a -2.5 HF while producing NO offensive TD’s and 56 yards rushing on 42 attempts for a robust 1.3 ypc….. Buckeyes O-Line is brutal and QB Krenzel can’t throw it in Lake Erie….. Okie State and Texas Tech combined for 1,334 total yards which to certain degree was no surprise, yet still impressive. The two teams passing line looked like this 61-97 873 yards….. The 180 degrees contrast was Navy and Rice who passed for a combined 93 yards on 12-24…..Auburn’s 2003 model ‘Cadillac” Williams ran for 6 TD’s vs. Miss. State…..Who are the last two unbeaten teams in the SEC? Surprisingly Auburn and Mississippi who looked anything but unbeatable on 9/6 when they lost to Georgia Tech and Memphis respectively…..K-State Wildcats won impressively on the scoreboard by 29 points, but were out gained 420-371 by a poor Colorado squad……Northern Illinois bounced back off two uneven performances by corralling the Broncos 37-10. 29-11 in FD’s and holding Western Michigan to -2 yards on 18 carries…..With a minor upset of Notre Dame (notice we said ‘minor’) Navy could go 10-2 this season.
Why we wager.
North Texas (-14.5) was cruising to an easy victory when they gave up a late 4th quarter TD to win 37-27 and to spoil a 3-1 record for this newsletter.
California was dominating UCLA but kept making silly mistakes including having a blocked FG for a Bruins TD. Trailing 20-12 as a 3-point dog, a 4th down 35 yard touchdown prayer is answered. Impact Sports was thrilled (one of our selections) to have a chance and was now hoping the Bears miss the 2-point conversation. No such luck. The game goes to OT and the Bruins make a 41 yard FG, while the Bears miss a 50 yarder. This was the full range of emotion. Frustrating throughout, defeated, unbelievable joy, disappointment yet hopeful and finally left with blandness over a Push. This is called serious fun.
Team of the Weak
Last season New Mexico State Coach T. Samuel was getting lots of love (obscure Stuart Scott reference) in leading the Aggies to a 7-5 record and competing for the Sun Belt title. Including the last two games of last season, Coach Tony’s squad is 2-8 SU. That includes a loss last week to the previous 0 for 2003 Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
If you’re a loyal Las Cruces graduate who wagers on the Aggies, I was wondering how your new part-time job was working out at Home Depot since your alma mater is a 2-11 ATS in their last thirteen lined games. GO AGGIES!
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 11-3 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game. This week’s teams to look at are Tampa Bay and Carolina.
NFL Notes
The Chargers broke into the win column with sensational performance from RB Tomlinson who rushed for 200 yards…..Giants keep finding ways to lose. 25-9 FD advantage and 339-134 total yards dominance. A basically unforced error by K. Collins turns this game around…..Bucs are finding out what Super Bowl Champs mean the next year…..Possible trouble brewing in Washington as team is no-show on the emotion meter in Buffalo…..QB Vick not coming back anytime soon and possible coaching change possible after this season. Just last season, this team was “the team of the future” for the foreseeable future…..Only two teams do not have a RB who has had a 20+ yard gain this season, can you name them? Ready, Cincinnati and Indy.
Road Favorites continue to be unreal with 21-7 ATS and 11-2 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56%of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable and profitable if you’re paying attention.
Fish Fried in Miami
The reason why Miami WILL NOT play in the Super Bowl. Answer is Coach Wannstedt. Chicago fans were elated to have this guy out of town. Only because he was a Coach Jimmy disciple did he so quickly land on his feet in Miami. If you saw the unbelievable conservative play calling the Fish utilized at the end of regulation, which ended in a blocked field goal you understand exactly what I mean. Coaches that WIN Super Bowls have to have the courage to lose games, not hang on to win games.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 6-2 ATS record 6-2 To Date SU 63-11 85% ATS 58-16 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
Why Run?
As you have followed my musings, you understand that I am a huge proponent of running the ball and stopping the run. Here is the necessary proof of why I believe in this from the NFL season to date:
The top eight rushing teams in rushing attempts have a combined record 38-13 SU and 34-17 ATS 66%.
The top eight teams in holding their opponents to the fewest rushing attempts have a combined record of 37-12 SU and 35-12-2 ATS 74%.
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 7-5
Season to Date 32-25
Last Week NFL 0-0
Season to Date 5-11
Surprising Spreads
Kansas State -20 over Kansas Don’t kid yourself into believing the Wildcats are all the way back.
Georgia -29 over UAB Bulldogs have Florida next week and Blazers off 3 straight ATS wins.
Pittsburgh -1 over St. Louis Not saying Steelers can’t win game but favored?
Dallas/TB total 36.5 Both teams are playing good to very good defense, but aren’t these the #3 and # 4 offenses in the NFL?
