IMPACT SPORTS NEWS
Goings and Comings
After this past Saturday a number of the true contenders started to emerge. With half of the Top 22 losing last week, change was certainly in order. In the NFL Road Favorites continue to dominate was you will see below. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses. What we have discovered is the select teams that cover the spread as winners are a respectable 43-30 58%. The real gem in this study is that teams that lose and fail to cover are a dreadful 41-8 ATS 83%. That is real opportunity when looking at selective losers. Impact Sports would be happy to send you a list of the Winners and Losers. Send us an email at rndsportz@cox.net.
This information was a harbinger of things to come this past weekend by the fact that the Winners were 10-4 ATS and the Losers were an eye-popping 14-0 ATS for a combined 24-4 85%. That brings the updated totals to 53-34 60% on the Winners and a 55-8 87% for the Losers. This tool is very useful in helping you determine if the teams you like to win or lose are something you should consider.
80 percent + (-) Club
Here is a list of all the CFB teams that are 80 % as winners or losers ATS.
Winners- Utah 6-0> Purdue 5-1 > Iowa 5-1> Texas Tech 5-1> Temple 4-1> Nevada 4-1> Navy 4-1> Houston 4-1-1> Okla. State 4-1> Tulsa 4-1
Losers - C.Florida 0-4-1> Penn State 1-6> Hawaii 1-5> Ohio State 1-5> SMU 1-5> Texas A&M 1-5> Washington 1-4-1
Linemakers will make adjustments to compensate for some of these teams. Opportunities will exist on the Winners list when they are in underdog roles or short favorites, conversely the Losers list can enhance your bankroll when these teams are favorites or in short dog roles.
Quick Hits…………
Every week the announcers of the Michigan games talk about the GREAT Wolverines
O-line. The last four weeks this GREAT? line-up of studs are blowing people to the tune of 83.25 yards per game. IMPRESSIVE…..Big 12 football had the week off as far as defense is concerned, as 6 teams allowed 40 or more points including Texas, Colorado and Nebraska…..Ohio State with all 5 O-Linemen returning from last year’s National Championship team are currently ranked #87 in rushing. M.Clarett was an important loss, but this?.....The Hokies are marching towards their November 1 showdown with Miami, with a solid performance by out gaining Syracuse 439-172 and holding a good Orangemen rushing game to just 81 yards on 35 tries…..Texas Tech amazes every week. Last week’s line: 49 FD’s- 767 yards on 110 plays- 240 yards rushing…..Texas A&M got a chance to move down in class, after four tough games and pulverized Baylor 73-10. That included a 703-153 total offense advantage…..New Mexico State has a FD advantage of 28-9, total yards advantage of 525-293 and a rushing advantage of 318-85 and lost by 18 points to Middle Tennessee State due to a 4-0 turnover ratio…..After watching Florida State’s gameplan against Miami, it doesn’t appear Bobby Bowden’s son Jeff will be receiving a lot of coaching offers…..
Team of the Weak
Before I announce this week’s weak squad, the previous teams I’ve listed are teams to look to play against as the season continues to unfold. I’ve received some criticism for picking on teams that are good teams, just currently not playing their best football. My retort is SO WHAT! If this team is under performing and is costing people money, then they should be exposed to the wagering public. Teams I’ve written about like N.C.State, Buffalo and C.Florida are draining people’s wallets. I digress…….
This week’s team has been having trouble since June. I know that was two months before the season started, but that is when their problems really started. I’m speaking of none other then the Huskies of Washington. The coach gets jettisoned for making money on college hoops. ( If former C. Neuheisel had just lost his initial investment and not made a profit would all this have occurred?) They elevate K.Gilbertson to head coach because he was now viewed as the mastermind behind the Washington offense. (Right) This newfound genius was the same one who was fired as the Cal. Bears coach after just three seasons. After a difficult opening assignment at Ohio State, the Huskies rattle off 4 wins against mediocre competition. Then as two point RF’s they get caught in an avalanche of of UCLA points and get blown out by 30 points. Next up, a nice room service 17-point dog at home to make you feel better, right? Huskies play like dogs, and lose outright to Nevada of the WAC. Good coaches have their teams prepared and ready to play despite disappointing losses. The lack of effort and attitude earns Washington our Team of the Weak.
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 10-2 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game.
NFL Notes
Baltimore wins and covers on the road, in spite of not scoring a offensive touchdown…..If you had the Bucs the previous Monday night and the Packers last Sunday, you deserve a pity refund…..Dolphins win despite being out-gained by nearly a hundred yards…..Our only loss in the NFL, was on the Giants who lost despite being inside the Patriots 35 yard line SEVEN times and only scored six points…..Why won’t Oakland rush the ball?......How does QB Plummer look on the sidelines?
Road Favorites are now 17-5 ATS and 10-1 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56%of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-1 ATS record 7-2 To Date SU 57-9 86% ATS 52-14 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 5-5
Season to Date 25-20
Last Week NFL 0-0
Season to Date 5-11
Surprising Spreads
Boston College -3 over Syracuse Should a team that averages over 200 yards rushing at home be a Home Dog?
Minnesota -7.5 over Michigan State Based purely on numbers is Michigan 10-points better then the Spartans on a neutral field?
Carolina -2.5 over Tennessee Should a team being out-gained by 40 yards per contest be favored against a team with >.500 record?
N.Y. Jets -2 over Houston Just because the Jets won their first game should do they deserve to be a road favorite?
Goings and Comings
After this past Saturday a number of the true contenders started to emerge. With half of the Top 22 losing last week, change was certainly in order. In the NFL Road Favorites continue to dominate was you will see below. These pages are about last week’s games, useful wagering information and upcoming situations. Let’s keep the wins rolling………
Winners Win and Losers Lose
Another area of research that Impact Sports investigates is how often do teams that win cover spreads and how often that teams lose fail to cover the number. Our research goes back twelve years to 1990. To quantify the information, teams need to cover as winners 80% or better and losers need to fail at least 80% of the time in their respective losses. What we have discovered is the select teams that cover the spread as winners are a respectable 43-30 58%. The real gem in this study is that teams that lose and fail to cover are a dreadful 41-8 ATS 83%. That is real opportunity when looking at selective losers. Impact Sports would be happy to send you a list of the Winners and Losers. Send us an email at rndsportz@cox.net.
This information was a harbinger of things to come this past weekend by the fact that the Winners were 10-4 ATS and the Losers were an eye-popping 14-0 ATS for a combined 24-4 85%. That brings the updated totals to 53-34 60% on the Winners and a 55-8 87% for the Losers. This tool is very useful in helping you determine if the teams you like to win or lose are something you should consider.
80 percent + (-) Club
Here is a list of all the CFB teams that are 80 % as winners or losers ATS.
Winners- Utah 6-0> Purdue 5-1 > Iowa 5-1> Texas Tech 5-1> Temple 4-1> Nevada 4-1> Navy 4-1> Houston 4-1-1> Okla. State 4-1> Tulsa 4-1
Losers - C.Florida 0-4-1> Penn State 1-6> Hawaii 1-5> Ohio State 1-5> SMU 1-5> Texas A&M 1-5> Washington 1-4-1
Linemakers will make adjustments to compensate for some of these teams. Opportunities will exist on the Winners list when they are in underdog roles or short favorites, conversely the Losers list can enhance your bankroll when these teams are favorites or in short dog roles.
Quick Hits…………
Every week the announcers of the Michigan games talk about the GREAT Wolverines
O-line. The last four weeks this GREAT? line-up of studs are blowing people to the tune of 83.25 yards per game. IMPRESSIVE…..Big 12 football had the week off as far as defense is concerned, as 6 teams allowed 40 or more points including Texas, Colorado and Nebraska…..Ohio State with all 5 O-Linemen returning from last year’s National Championship team are currently ranked #87 in rushing. M.Clarett was an important loss, but this?.....The Hokies are marching towards their November 1 showdown with Miami, with a solid performance by out gaining Syracuse 439-172 and holding a good Orangemen rushing game to just 81 yards on 35 tries…..Texas Tech amazes every week. Last week’s line: 49 FD’s- 767 yards on 110 plays- 240 yards rushing…..Texas A&M got a chance to move down in class, after four tough games and pulverized Baylor 73-10. That included a 703-153 total offense advantage…..New Mexico State has a FD advantage of 28-9, total yards advantage of 525-293 and a rushing advantage of 318-85 and lost by 18 points to Middle Tennessee State due to a 4-0 turnover ratio…..After watching Florida State’s gameplan against Miami, it doesn’t appear Bobby Bowden’s son Jeff will be receiving a lot of coaching offers…..
Team of the Weak
Before I announce this week’s weak squad, the previous teams I’ve listed are teams to look to play against as the season continues to unfold. I’ve received some criticism for picking on teams that are good teams, just currently not playing their best football. My retort is SO WHAT! If this team is under performing and is costing people money, then they should be exposed to the wagering public. Teams I’ve written about like N.C.State, Buffalo and C.Florida are draining people’s wallets. I digress…….
This week’s team has been having trouble since June. I know that was two months before the season started, but that is when their problems really started. I’m speaking of none other then the Huskies of Washington. The coach gets jettisoned for making money on college hoops. ( If former C. Neuheisel had just lost his initial investment and not made a profit would all this have occurred?) They elevate K.Gilbertson to head coach because he was now viewed as the mastermind behind the Washington offense. (Right) This newfound genius was the same one who was fired as the Cal. Bears coach after just three seasons. After a difficult opening assignment at Ohio State, the Huskies rattle off 4 wins against mediocre competition. Then as two point RF’s they get caught in an avalanche of of UCLA points and get blown out by 30 points. Next up, a nice room service 17-point dog at home to make you feel better, right? Huskies play like dogs, and lose outright to Nevada of the WAC. Good coaches have their teams prepared and ready to play despite disappointing losses. The lack of effort and attitude earns Washington our Team of the Weak.
Learning Curve
We found this nugget for the 2003 season. In the NFL, teams that commit 4 or turnovers are 10-2 ATS in their next contest. The logical conclusion is that the head coach stresses protecting the ball thus the team plays better and wins and covers their next game.
NFL Notes
Baltimore wins and covers on the road, in spite of not scoring a offensive touchdown…..If you had the Bucs the previous Monday night and the Packers last Sunday, you deserve a pity refund…..Dolphins win despite being out-gained by nearly a hundred yards…..Our only loss in the NFL, was on the Giants who lost despite being inside the Patriots 35 yard line SEVEN times and only scored six points…..Why won’t Oakland rush the ball?......How does QB Plummer look on the sidelines?
Road Favorites are now 17-5 ATS and 10-1 ATS when priced at 3.5-6.5 points. If you played every dog over the previous last four years, you would have won 56%of the time. What is currently occurring in the NFL is truly remarkable.
One of our favorite stats and indicators in the NFL is rushing attempts. In the NFL if you rush the ball 25 times you will be in position to win. Week Five results:
SU record 8-1 ATS record 7-2 To Date SU 57-9 86% ATS 52-14 78%
How can you tell if a team is going to rush 25 or more times? Of course a variety of factors need to be assessed, but we recommend the following:
*Coach’s patience and commitment to running game
*History of running the ball
*Strength of offense line
*Weakness of defensive line
*Lead running back who can close game
LINE MOVEMENT
One feature that Impact Sports likes to follow is line movement early in the week. This is considered when the “sharps” look to take advantage of weak lines and help move them accordingly. Once posted, we review them later in the day on Tuesday and see what direction these guys are thinking. Thus far this season this system has been nondescript. We will still keep track for you, but not waste the space on the specific situations unless the numbers improve.
Last Week CFB 5-5
Season to Date 25-20
Last Week NFL 0-0
Season to Date 5-11
Surprising Spreads
Boston College -3 over Syracuse Should a team that averages over 200 yards rushing at home be a Home Dog?
Minnesota -7.5 over Michigan State Based purely on numbers is Michigan 10-points better then the Spartans on a neutral field?
Carolina -2.5 over Tennessee Should a team being out-gained by 40 yards per contest be favored against a team with >.500 record?
N.Y. Jets -2 over Houston Just because the Jets won their first game should do they deserve to be a road favorite?
