8 picks today (6 teams involved ILL, NCST, FSU, OK, USC, KY)
Illinois -1.5:
I hate road teams in the big 10 but the exception here is because I think Illinois is on a serious tear. 8-1 in their last 9 games - with the only loss coming at Wisky. Prior to that stretch they lost at Northwestern and vs purdue (by 4) and won 6 games before that after losing to providence and NC early on in the season. Iowa is the opposite - They haven't won more than 2 in a row since before big 10 play against teams like Drake, Wisc Green Bay, Eastern Wash, NIU, and asheville (yes and they beat louisville by 1 at louisville). To their credit they have split with Michigan, beat Ohio State twice, Minny at Minny, PSU, and Indiana. Illinois is a better team and I'll take them at -1.5
Oklahoma +7.5 (-170) and Oklahoma ML +170
This is a solid play IMO because Colorado comes into this high on themselves after a couple of easy wins. Oklahoma on the other hand has just had 2 tough losses to a higher level of competition. I consider Colorado medium competition but the fact is that Oklahoma has not lost by very much to the medium level teams that they did lose to. I bought the points because I think that its pretty much a given that they wont get blown out here, and I took the ML because I think they'll actually win. If not I can be sure that all I'll lose is a little bit.
FSU +9
A lot of points for a team that has been relatively competitive in conference play. This one is more of a guess, I'm not a big believer in letdowns - but if Wake was ever due for one now is the time and FSU is sneaky like that...
NCState +9.5 (-170)
I struggled with this incredibly because I know how good GT can be. I did a detailed breakdown of the performance of these teams at home, on the road, vs common opponents, vs ranked opponents, and vs medium level competition - amazingly the two teams were almost identical in every category - of course the home team has an edge, but other than that they are very balanced. GT may suprise me and come out blasting (which will only work if the refs take a chill pill) but even so I don't see NCState losing by 10 pts.
ALSO:
USC ML -180
I expect USC to win and I'm willing to give away some cash to gaurentee it by taking the ML. USC handled UCLA by 7 at UCLA so there's no reason they shouldnt repeat that performance coming home to their own arena.
AND:
a 5 team 5 pt tease (+350)
Ill +3
FSU +14
OK +9.5
USC +1
***Kentucky -3
AND:
a 4 team 10 pt tease (-120)
North Carolina State +16½
Illinois +8
Florida State +19
Oklahoma +14½
***NOTE ABOUT KY: I hate big point spreads so I'm not taking KY at -13 (though they very well may cover) but expecting Kentucky to win by 4 or more seems like a great choice in the context of this teaser. Tennessee likes to get killed on the road and Kentucky is pissed and needs to gain some momentum.
Illinois -1.5:
I hate road teams in the big 10 but the exception here is because I think Illinois is on a serious tear. 8-1 in their last 9 games - with the only loss coming at Wisky. Prior to that stretch they lost at Northwestern and vs purdue (by 4) and won 6 games before that after losing to providence and NC early on in the season. Iowa is the opposite - They haven't won more than 2 in a row since before big 10 play against teams like Drake, Wisc Green Bay, Eastern Wash, NIU, and asheville (yes and they beat louisville by 1 at louisville). To their credit they have split with Michigan, beat Ohio State twice, Minny at Minny, PSU, and Indiana. Illinois is a better team and I'll take them at -1.5
Oklahoma +7.5 (-170) and Oklahoma ML +170
This is a solid play IMO because Colorado comes into this high on themselves after a couple of easy wins. Oklahoma on the other hand has just had 2 tough losses to a higher level of competition. I consider Colorado medium competition but the fact is that Oklahoma has not lost by very much to the medium level teams that they did lose to. I bought the points because I think that its pretty much a given that they wont get blown out here, and I took the ML because I think they'll actually win. If not I can be sure that all I'll lose is a little bit.
FSU +9
A lot of points for a team that has been relatively competitive in conference play. This one is more of a guess, I'm not a big believer in letdowns - but if Wake was ever due for one now is the time and FSU is sneaky like that...
NCState +9.5 (-170)
I struggled with this incredibly because I know how good GT can be. I did a detailed breakdown of the performance of these teams at home, on the road, vs common opponents, vs ranked opponents, and vs medium level competition - amazingly the two teams were almost identical in every category - of course the home team has an edge, but other than that they are very balanced. GT may suprise me and come out blasting (which will only work if the refs take a chill pill) but even so I don't see NCState losing by 10 pts.
ALSO:
USC ML -180
I expect USC to win and I'm willing to give away some cash to gaurentee it by taking the ML. USC handled UCLA by 7 at UCLA so there's no reason they shouldnt repeat that performance coming home to their own arena.
AND:
a 5 team 5 pt tease (+350)
Ill +3
FSU +14
OK +9.5
USC +1
***Kentucky -3
AND:
a 4 team 10 pt tease (-120)
North Carolina State +16½
Illinois +8
Florida State +19
Oklahoma +14½
***NOTE ABOUT KY: I hate big point spreads so I'm not taking KY at -13 (though they very well may cover) but expecting Kentucky to win by 4 or more seems like a great choice in the context of this teaser. Tennessee likes to get killed on the road and Kentucky is pissed and needs to gain some momentum.
