Jake...If the pace slows doesn't it make it harder on the closers and not easier since the come from behinders have to hope that the speed gets tired? If the pacesetter sets some slow fractions, if they are any kind of horse they usually have plenty left in the tank for the finish. I think the question you need to ask yourself is will there be a horse in the race that could get out there by itself. And if not, is there a good just off the pace horse that could steal it? I just picked up the racing form while ago and I'll take a look at it tonight. I know when I see horses like Mind That Bird, I always think of second and third place finishes. They usually don't get there unless there is an off track like the Derby. You would think the Belmont would set up perfect for him. But more often than not in a 1 1/2 mile race for survival I've seen the jockeys pull some funny things with the pace. If Mind That Bird is that good it probably won't make a difference. But keep in mind that he's made two HUGE comebacks in a one month period. You wonder how much he has left in his tank. I've seen more than a few Belmont's where these route runners look good all the way to the final turn, and then they just run out of juice from all of that racing in a short period of time. Something tells me that Mind That Bird will either win the race or he won't be there at all.
I've definitely heard people who believe in that train of thought and don't claim to be an absolute horse racing expert by any stretch but for what it's worth I don't feel it's true. I think the slow pace will help the big closers stay close to the front and then the closers will have more left at the end. Some horses are just built to cover a ton of ground at the end and some are not. Just for random info if it helps anyone:
Closers:
Mine That Bird
Summer Bird
Luv Gov
Mr. Hot Stuff
Flying Private
Stalkers:
Charitable Man
Dunkirk
Miner's Escape
Who really knows:
Brave Victory
Chocolate Candy
There really are not many pace setters in this race. A Big Drama or Rachel Alexandra would have made the order a little easier to figure out IMO.
And that goes back to why it is easier finding winners in weeks 1 & 2 than the rest of the year. First, there are many more non-con games. That means teams who are not used to playing each other, and more times than not, a line that is lower than it should be. There are more upsets in conference play than in non-con play. The catch is that the upsets catch the headlines, and the favorites covering do not. Everyone remembers how East Carolina stunned the nation by upsetting Virginia Tech and West Virginia in Weeks 1 and 2 last year. Does anyone remember what Florida did? They went 2-0, as did Michigan State, Cal, and many other teams.
I try to stay away from the "headliner" games. I am much more likely to take, say Clemson at home against Middle Tennessee than to take Alabama or Va Tech in their match up. One game I will be looking at is LSU at Washington. Obviously everything depends on the line, but LSU may be under valued here, with this being an away game for them and all the hype surrounding Washington's new HC and their QB Locker. Washington has been a notoriously slow starter going 1-5 in their first lined game in the past 6 years. Another game I will pay attention to is Mississippi at Memphis. This could be the exact opposite of the LSU-Washington game, with Mississippi being over priced and a huge favorite thanks to a lot of preseason hype. Memphis returns their QB, and gets a bunch of transfers from the likes of LSU and Oregon that may improve their defense. Those are just a couple of games I will be looking at.
I try to stay away from the "headliner" games. I am much more likely to take, say Clemson at home against Middle Tennessee than to take Alabama or Va Tech in their match up. One game I will be looking at is LSU at Washington. Obviously everything depends on the line, but LSU may be under valued here, with this being an away game for them and all the hype surrounding Washington's new HC and their QB Locker. Washington has been a notoriously slow starter going 1-5 in their first lined game in the past 6 years. Another game I will pay attention to is Mississippi at Memphis. This could be the exact opposite of the LSU-Washington game, with Mississippi being over priced and a huge favorite thanks to a lot of preseason hype. Memphis returns their QB, and gets a bunch of transfers from the likes of LSU and Oregon that may improve their defense. Those are just a couple of games I will be looking at.
I'm pretty much the same way. As tempting as they are, I try to stay away from the headliner games in the first few weeks of the season. If the animosity between the two conferences stretches beyond this forum, I think I might stay away from the LSU/Washington game too. There could end up being more hype for this game than we think. I agree about the Ole Miss/Memphis game. Everybody is going to remember how bad Memphis got beat by USF in their bowl game and how Ole Miss took care of Texas Tech. We could really get a nice big number on Memphis this year. And no matter how bad or good these teams have been in the past, Memphis is notorious for giving Ole Miss all they can handle. Especially when the game is being played in Memphis.
Another game to watch is Iowa-Iowa State in week 2. Iowa is 0-5 ATS in the past 5 years and has actually LOST the past two games in Ames straight up. Iowa State is picked to finish in their usual spot in the Big 12. That is 12th out of 12 teams, and dead last in the weak North. I hope I can get some big odds, because Iowa's biggest margin of victory in the past 5 years has been 12 points, and that was last year.
As usual Iowa State will still be slow and talentless in the defensive backfield this year, but I don't think Iowa will be able to take advantage of them like the high octane Big 12 offenses did last season..But I look for the ISU offense to possibly be much improved. So they could score enough points here to keep the game interesting for awhile, if not at least keep it within the line. This game has been a no-brainer for me for the last few years. I just take ISU and let it ride. As bad as they are, they somehow find a way to keep it close. And Iowa finds a way to fuk things up. They were actually a little lucky to beat ISU at home last season. I remember that game well..It was was closer than the 17-5 score. Iowa scored 14 of their points in the 4th quarter. And ISU outgained them by almost 100 yards. But turned the ball over 3 times. Which killed them. So just give me ISU and double digits this season and I'm a happy camper.
Iowa vs. ISU is a favorite of mine as well. I think every average joe gambler plays on Iowa and looses that game. I already know I'm taking ISU and the points this year. This game is the first thing I thought of when I saw Iowa in the top 25. I will probably take ISU in the first half too. The Hawkeye offense won't be clicking out of the gate. They still don't have a feature RB after spring practices and their WR's are pretty green.
:toast: LT
