Howard Dean to win Democratic Nom. +450

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I threw $200 to win $900
on this eventuality.
I think Dean is the rising star
on the Dem side. His popularity could
be peaking come decision time. I like his
views on politics, and he seems to be a
man of conviction, and common sense.

PINNACLE WAGER RECOMMENDATION:
DEAN TO WIN DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION +450.

enjoy.
 

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unfortunately conviction and common sense are not highly valued by the majority of voters in this country
icon_rolleyes.gif
a fact which is likely to hurt dean's chances.
 

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While he certainly is the rising star (and the darling of the internet) he is not currently the darling of the DLC.

Though with 4.5 to 1 odds there certainly is some value in the bet.
 

There's always next year, like in 75, 90-93, 99 &
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I'd say no. It looked early on as if the Dems hoped Edwards would forge ahead as the next "JFK", but for whatever reason that has lost it's steam ...

... the consensus is that Kerry is "leading", but Dean & (my favorite) Gephardt have been gaining popularity ...

sadly though, I can't see any of these guys winning over Bush as I think the Bush Terror Wand has one last frightening wave left in it.
 

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I would gladly lay -450 he doesn't get it. I think it would be more likely he run for President as the discarded Democrat and goes on some other party or an independent ticket. He will fool a lot of people right now because fact is the only people that really care right now, the ones that put out money this early in the game or vote in these mock polls are hard-core politicos and in the case of the Democrats that takes them WAY over to the left. The people who can make or break the Democrats are the soccer moms and the techies and those freaked out by the fiscal deficits (namely seniors). These people don't care and aren't paying much attention right now. These people will care and will help drive the decision once its time to do so and that is when Dean will run out of gas. Add to that the fact that the Dems desperately want an "electable" guy and Dean has little chance. Right now there are people rallying around a few others, but a couple will drop out and then the camps will be set. Lieberman will be the "almost Republican" camp, Kerry will be the "establishment choice camp", and Dean will be the "we are flaming liberals camp". Guess which one most smart money would back?
 

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Dean is not the choice of the flaming liberals. That would be Kucinich.

Second, the techies like Dean as he has embraced them by running a web-campaign.
 

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Lets see how long the "web-campaign" works for. Yeah Kucinich is the flaming liberal, but I made the point that the final camp of them will be with Dean because Dennis the Menace won't make it anywhere in this race. Worst thing about Dean is that he faces the specter of Ralph Nader. If Dean gets a little too far to the center and tries to do things that make him electable to a bigger population, he risks getting Nader out to sink him like he sunk Gore. While Dean is far more palatable to Nader than Gore will ever be, I just speculate that we haven't heard the last of Mr. Nader, especially if he thinks someone is stealing his base of fans while trying to be more inclusive of the middle that would get a Dem elected. And never underestimate the power of the machinery. They control the big bucks, they can line up the big name stump speakers, they can get the Hollywood crowd onto someone's side...its all stuff that makes it just very hard for Dean to win. He strikes me as the guy who could have a voice in the party and get out some voters, but not the guy that can take it over and put it all behind him. He is good for the party though, he will energize some that may not care much to vote at first and some of those may eventually go to the polls and vote whoever gets the nomination.
 

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Dean has some advantages to with which to gain those centrist votes. His near-perfect rating from the NRA will be a big plus in states like West Virginia.
 

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Don't count out Hillary yet to make a run. She gave an interview overseas, and unlike her unequivical denials here, over there she was very non committal. She's testing the waters, seeing if she gets too much negative pub for lying; first overseas, soon to follow here. Her WSEX Interactives jumped a couple of points today. Something to watch, since no one running captures the imagination.
 

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Hillary wouldn't surprise me, I think she could win the Dem nomination fairly easily as long as Kerry doesn't get too entrenched in the establishment there. Thing is Hillary would have a hard time winning an election itself because her negative "never going to vote for her rating" is too high to win.
 

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