HOW TO BURY YOUR BOOKMAKER THIS WEEKEND IN THE NFL....
written January 17, 2005 by THE SHRINK
The NUMBER 3 has been talked about a lot, especially when it comes to betting NFL football games. What the bookmaker fears the most, whether offshore or in Las Vegas, is when a Football game lands on a closing number of 3.
The chances of this happening varies on certain conditions. As a general rule, the lower the TOTAL on an NFL game, the GREATER is the likelihood that the game lands on that dreaded 3.
In this day and age, gamblers are much more sophisticated and they tend to shop around the Internet for the best price when gambling on a team.
Next Sunday's match up between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers already has the potential to be a nightmare for bookies and a haven for gamblers, IF they know how to play this.
This line originally opened around 2, but currently, gamblers are laying 2 1/2 when betting the Patriots, and taking back plus 3 when wagering on the Steelers. Looking at the point spreads for this game can make one dizzy because so many bookies are afraid to get off of their original position, whether it be 2 1/2 or 3. Instead, many offshore establishments will vary the "juice" before bouncing back and forth off of the 3.
Who can blame them? If I owned one of these places, I'd be doing the exact same thing and here's why.
The importance of the number 3 in the NFL cannot be emphasized enough. Since the advent of the 2 point conversion, Football teams will often pass up on going for the extra point when leading or trailing in order to get to 3, because they consider 2 and 4 to be "dead" numbers.
For those of you who don't understand numbers as well as others, a "dead" number is one which is considered "worthless."
The game between Pittsburgh and New England also has a low Total (37), and how ironic too, because that particular number is considered the most important one when betting "totals." I will save talking about this for another day.
Now that we have established the significance of the number 3, let's talk about "middling." Although it is my personal belief that in most cases, it is mathematically wrong to try and middle Football games, all bets are off when the number 3 is involved and here is why.
For this weekend's match up between New England and Pittsburgh, there are gamblers who will be attempting to cash in BIG IF the Patriots win by exactly 3, which has approximately a 14% chance of happening, according to most number experts I have spoken to.
Now given the above percentage, many gamblers want to know the total amount of juice that they can LAY to have an ADVANTAGE over the bookmaker this weekend.
It is my contention that a bettor can lay 2 1/2 minus $1.20 on The Patriots and take back plus 3 1/2 at minus $1.20 on the Steelers and still have a significant advantage over the bookmaker.
Let's explain why more clearly.
If one were to wager one hundred dollars on the above two scenarios, the most that the gambler would be risking is a total of 20 dollars in Juice IF the number 3 doesn't fall.
However, the reward coming back IF the number 3 lands would be a dead hit middle, so the bettor gets paid from both bookies making it a total of $200.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist with numbers to realize in this case that risking 20 to make 200 is 1 out of 10 or 9:1 against you if you prefer this method of calculating.
Since I already told you that the chances of an NFL game landing on 3 in this particular situation is roughly 14%, making it 1 out of 7 or 6:1, depending on how you prefer to label it.
Therefore, since the gambler is only risking 10% to make 14% if the game lands 3, he holds a 4% ADVANTAGE over the sports book in this case.
And anytime one can capture this big of an edge over the house, it is correct to play it for as much as is humanly possible. These cases just don't happen very often.
THE SHRINK
written January 17, 2005 by THE SHRINK
The NUMBER 3 has been talked about a lot, especially when it comes to betting NFL football games. What the bookmaker fears the most, whether offshore or in Las Vegas, is when a Football game lands on a closing number of 3.
The chances of this happening varies on certain conditions. As a general rule, the lower the TOTAL on an NFL game, the GREATER is the likelihood that the game lands on that dreaded 3.
In this day and age, gamblers are much more sophisticated and they tend to shop around the Internet for the best price when gambling on a team.
Next Sunday's match up between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers already has the potential to be a nightmare for bookies and a haven for gamblers, IF they know how to play this.
This line originally opened around 2, but currently, gamblers are laying 2 1/2 when betting the Patriots, and taking back plus 3 when wagering on the Steelers. Looking at the point spreads for this game can make one dizzy because so many bookies are afraid to get off of their original position, whether it be 2 1/2 or 3. Instead, many offshore establishments will vary the "juice" before bouncing back and forth off of the 3.
Who can blame them? If I owned one of these places, I'd be doing the exact same thing and here's why.
The importance of the number 3 in the NFL cannot be emphasized enough. Since the advent of the 2 point conversion, Football teams will often pass up on going for the extra point when leading or trailing in order to get to 3, because they consider 2 and 4 to be "dead" numbers.
For those of you who don't understand numbers as well as others, a "dead" number is one which is considered "worthless."
The game between Pittsburgh and New England also has a low Total (37), and how ironic too, because that particular number is considered the most important one when betting "totals." I will save talking about this for another day.
Now that we have established the significance of the number 3, let's talk about "middling." Although it is my personal belief that in most cases, it is mathematically wrong to try and middle Football games, all bets are off when the number 3 is involved and here is why.
For this weekend's match up between New England and Pittsburgh, there are gamblers who will be attempting to cash in BIG IF the Patriots win by exactly 3, which has approximately a 14% chance of happening, according to most number experts I have spoken to.
Now given the above percentage, many gamblers want to know the total amount of juice that they can LAY to have an ADVANTAGE over the bookmaker this weekend.
It is my contention that a bettor can lay 2 1/2 minus $1.20 on The Patriots and take back plus 3 1/2 at minus $1.20 on the Steelers and still have a significant advantage over the bookmaker.
Let's explain why more clearly.
If one were to wager one hundred dollars on the above two scenarios, the most that the gambler would be risking is a total of 20 dollars in Juice IF the number 3 doesn't fall.
However, the reward coming back IF the number 3 lands would be a dead hit middle, so the bettor gets paid from both bookies making it a total of $200.
You don't have to be a rocket scientist with numbers to realize in this case that risking 20 to make 200 is 1 out of 10 or 9:1 against you if you prefer this method of calculating.
Since I already told you that the chances of an NFL game landing on 3 in this particular situation is roughly 14%, making it 1 out of 7 or 6:1, depending on how you prefer to label it.
Therefore, since the gambler is only risking 10% to make 14% if the game lands 3, he holds a 4% ADVANTAGE over the sports book in this case.
And anytime one can capture this big of an edge over the house, it is correct to play it for as much as is humanly possible. These cases just don't happen very often.
THE SHRINK
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