How to bet the 2016 U.S. Open
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- April in Augusta is great, and the history of the British Open is endearing (though the snobbery of calling it THE OPEN kind of turns me off), but my favorite golf tournament of the year is the U.S. Open.
It's our national championship and, appropriately enough, it's very democratic in its qualifying process -- but I also love that the final round is traditionally on Father's Day. I would watch the final round with my dad a lot growing up, and after moving away, I always knew I could call him at home on Father's Day and we could watch part of the final round together. And even with him passed on, I can now watch it with my own kids (when I can tear them away from their electronic devices long enough).
I also love that it's a challenge, in that it's not played on the same course every year, but always one that really challenges the players -- and this year it returns to Oakmont, one of the toughest courses in the world. In fact, out of the eight times the U.S. Open has been played at Oakmont, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">on three occasions not a single player has finished under par. It's going to take a solid, consistent player to win this weekend.
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That doesn't necessarily mean that the way to bet is to take one of the top contenders -- the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Jason Day as the slight favorite at 13-2, Rory McIlroy at 7-1 and Jordan Spieth at 8-1 -- even though they are the most likely winners. I'm sorry, but in a field of 156 golfers, I'm not willing to take less than double-digit odds on any golfer.
Let's look at some value plays. Because we're getting such big odds, it's OK to bet multiple players. You can easily find your own live long shot to put into your portfolio too, but here are three golfers who stand out among the rest of the field.
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Dustin Johnson (12-1): A lot of people want to throw out Johnson because he has earned a reputation of starting strong in majors and then not coming through on the weekends (and a lot of those same people probably have bet him and felt let down by those letdowns), but he's still one of the top contenders in my book. I wish we had grabbed him at 15-1 at the Westgate earlier in the week, but we have time to shop around. Anyway, there's good news for Johnson in the lead-up to the U.S. Open -- he's coming off a performance in which he shot a 63 at Memphis on Sunday (yes, on Sunday!). Obviously that can be viewed as an aberration, or maybe it "doesn't count" because he wasn't in contention, but when I look at the list of golfers, and who is capable of putting together four solid rounds, I have Johnson right there.
Phil Mickelson (25-1): I know Lefty isn't as good as he was a few years ago (when he was the clear No. 2 on the planet to Tiger Woods, and those two would routinely be the only golfers with single-digit odds in majors), but I have to see value in his current odds of 25-1. Maybe oddsmakers also are raising his odds because of all the distractions of the Wall Street investigations and talk about his betting habits, but Mickelson always has been able to concentrate on the golf course despite outside distractions. He also played very well at Memphis last week, tying for second place, so he's in good form -- and I really believe he has as good of a chance as anyone this weekend.
Bryson DeChambeau (100-1): Back in April, a friend of mine wanted to get DeChambeau at 250-1 but I wasn't able to get down to the Westgate (and other books didn't have individual odds on him, just had him as part of a "field" bet). Thus, we didn't have a bet on him when he was in contention at Augusta, and I told my friend, "We'll never get 250-1 on him again." Fortunately for us, he didn't win, but he did finish as low amateur.
He already has a historic résumé, as he won the NCAA and U.S. Amateur titles last year -- only the fifth to ever do that, joining Jack Nicklaus, Mickelson, Woods and Ryan Moore. That's pretty elite company. and I also like the fact that he played the first two rounds of the Masters without being intimidated by playing with Spieth -- and they'll be in the same pairing again on Thursday and Friday. I don't want to miss if he wins his first pro tourney at big odds, and I'm grateful to still get 100-1.
Good luck this weekend, and every weekend. And happy Father's Day.
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- April in Augusta is great, and the history of the British Open is endearing (though the snobbery of calling it THE OPEN kind of turns me off), but my favorite golf tournament of the year is the U.S. Open.
It's our national championship and, appropriately enough, it's very democratic in its qualifying process -- but I also love that the final round is traditionally on Father's Day. I would watch the final round with my dad a lot growing up, and after moving away, I always knew I could call him at home on Father's Day and we could watch part of the final round together. And even with him passed on, I can now watch it with my own kids (when I can tear them away from their electronic devices long enough).
I also love that it's a challenge, in that it's not played on the same course every year, but always one that really challenges the players -- and this year it returns to Oakmont, one of the toughest courses in the world. In fact, out of the eight times the U.S. Open has been played at Oakmont, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">on three occasions not a single player has finished under par. It's going to take a solid, consistent player to win this weekend.
</offer>
That doesn't necessarily mean that the way to bet is to take one of the top contenders -- the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has Jason Day as the slight favorite at 13-2, Rory McIlroy at 7-1 and Jordan Spieth at 8-1 -- even though they are the most likely winners. I'm sorry, but in a field of 156 golfers, I'm not willing to take less than double-digit odds on any golfer.
Let's look at some value plays. Because we're getting such big odds, it's OK to bet multiple players. You can easily find your own live long shot to put into your portfolio too, but here are three golfers who stand out among the rest of the field.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Dustin Johnson (12-1): A lot of people want to throw out Johnson because he has earned a reputation of starting strong in majors and then not coming through on the weekends (and a lot of those same people probably have bet him and felt let down by those letdowns), but he's still one of the top contenders in my book. I wish we had grabbed him at 15-1 at the Westgate earlier in the week, but we have time to shop around. Anyway, there's good news for Johnson in the lead-up to the U.S. Open -- he's coming off a performance in which he shot a 63 at Memphis on Sunday (yes, on Sunday!). Obviously that can be viewed as an aberration, or maybe it "doesn't count" because he wasn't in contention, but when I look at the list of golfers, and who is capable of putting together four solid rounds, I have Johnson right there.
Phil Mickelson (25-1): I know Lefty isn't as good as he was a few years ago (when he was the clear No. 2 on the planet to Tiger Woods, and those two would routinely be the only golfers with single-digit odds in majors), but I have to see value in his current odds of 25-1. Maybe oddsmakers also are raising his odds because of all the distractions of the Wall Street investigations and talk about his betting habits, but Mickelson always has been able to concentrate on the golf course despite outside distractions. He also played very well at Memphis last week, tying for second place, so he's in good form -- and I really believe he has as good of a chance as anyone this weekend.
Bryson DeChambeau (100-1): Back in April, a friend of mine wanted to get DeChambeau at 250-1 but I wasn't able to get down to the Westgate (and other books didn't have individual odds on him, just had him as part of a "field" bet). Thus, we didn't have a bet on him when he was in contention at Augusta, and I told my friend, "We'll never get 250-1 on him again." Fortunately for us, he didn't win, but he did finish as low amateur.
He already has a historic résumé, as he won the NCAA and U.S. Amateur titles last year -- only the fifth to ever do that, joining Jack Nicklaus, Mickelson, Woods and Ryan Moore. That's pretty elite company. and I also like the fact that he played the first two rounds of the Masters without being intimidated by playing with Spieth -- and they'll be in the same pairing again on Thursday and Friday. I don't want to miss if he wins his first pro tourney at big odds, and I'm grateful to still get 100-1.
Good luck this weekend, and every weekend. And happy Father's Day.
