[h=1]Euro 2016 semifinals betting guide[/h]James EasthamSpecial to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 semifinals take place on Wednesday and Thursday. After picking five winners from six selections in the quarterfinals, handicapper James Eastham picks out the smart bets for the last-four fixtures.
[h=2]WEDNESDAY[/h][h=3]Portugal vs. Wales[/h]Asian handicap: <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Portugal -0.25 (-116) vs. Wales +0.25 (+108)</offer>
3-way line: Portugal +121 / Wales +314 / Draw +206
To advance to next round: Portugal -182 / Wales +167
Total: 2 (Over -101, Under -108)
Based on how these two sides have performed in getting this far in the competition, Portugal's status as the favorites to make it through to the final makes no sense. Fernando Santos' side picked up just three points in the group stage, and played no better than Croatia (0-0 after 90 minutes) and Poland (1-1 after 90 minutes) in the last 16 and quarterfinals, respectively. In contrast, Wales picked up six points in the group stage, and while they labored in beating Northern Ireland 1-0 in the last 16 stage, Wales produced one of the best team performances of the tournament to see off Belgium 3-1 in the quarterfinals.
Wales has won four of their five games within 90 minutes, running up a +6 goal difference; Portugal have failed to win any of their games in 90 minutes, scored four fewer goals than Wales and have a +0 goal difference. Team news favors Portugal -- midfielder William Carvalho is the only member of the Portugal line-up missing, whereas Wales have to field a team without defenderBen Davies and highly influential midfielder Aaron Ramsey -- but at most, those absences in the Wales camp make this an even tie rather than tipping the balance towards Portugal.
We made a profit by backing Portugal's opponent Poland on the Asian handicap in the last round, based on the form of the two sides in the run-up to that fixture, and are happy to do the same here because there is clear evidence that Wales is good enough to win in 90 minutes -- or at least good enough to take the game to extra-time.
For those looking for bigger odds than our selection of Wales on the Asian handicap, the draw (+206) is a good alternative. The high-scoring nature of Wales' games will also tempt many people to invest in the over on two goals, and whichever way you look at the goals stats, the over is a smarter selection than the under in this instance. Four of Wales' five games have featured more than two goals and, while the same applies to only one of Portugal's five games, three of Portugal's five games have featured two goals exactly -- meaning you would have gotten your stakes back on those three occasions, rather than losing any money.
The knockout phase has produced a good number of goals overall, too; if you backed "over two goals" in all of the knockout games so far, you would have made a profit six times, got your stakes back four times and lost your stakes only twice.
The picks: Wales +0.25 Asian handicap (+108) and over two goals (-101)
[h=2]THURSDAY[/h][h=3]France vs. Germany[/h]Asian handicap: France 0 (-112) vs. Germany 0 (+105)
3-way line: France +176 / Germany +199 / Draw +209
To advance to next round: France -109 / Germany +102
Total: 2 (Over -114, Under +104)
The first thing to point out here is that if you followed our pre-tournament pick on France being crowned European champions (available at +400 at the time), then you may wish to hedge your bets here by backing Germany in some way. Looking at this game independently, however, you would be wise to take a different view.
France produced a series of average performances in the group phase, but they have played outstanding football in their last game-and-a-half: they came from 1-0 down at halftime in their last-16 tie against the Republic of Ireland to win 2-1, and then blew away Iceland with a sensational quarterfinals performance, thrashing Lars Lagerback's side 5-2.
There are legitimate concerns over the resilience of France's defence, but their front players are in such fine form -- Antoine Griezmann (four goals), Olivier Giroud (three goals) and Dimitri Payet (three goals) have scored 10 goals between them -- that their defensive insecurity is perhaps less of an issue than some observers would have you believe, given that this is likely to be an open game. Germany was equally unconvincing in the group stages before comfortably beating Slovakia 3-0 in the last-16 and narrowly outplaying a strong Italy side (1-1, penalty shoot-out win) in the quarterfinals.
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</article>Looking at the tie overall, France's advantages are their superior attacking quality, better team news and the tremendous support they will be able to count on in this sell-out clash in the city of Marseille. Germany's advantages are their superior tournament experience, the presence of Manuel Neuer in goal and a greater sense of how to win competitive knockout matches (let's not forget that Germany was a 1-0 winner when these two sides met in the World Cup quarterfinals two years ago). Team news could turn out to be the crucial factor; while France has a full-strength squad to pick from, Germany has three (and possibly four) absentees: centerback Mats Hummels (suspended), midfielder Sami Khedira (injured) and striker Mario Gomez (injured) are all out, while Bastian Schweinsteiger -- the first-choice replacement for Khedira -- is an injury doubt too.
Taking all factors into account, France has a slightly better chance than Germany to win the game in 90 minutes, and for that reason, they deserve to be slight favorites. The odds appear about right, so if you're looking for a selection on the outcome of the match, then the France 0 Asian handicap would be the pick, as you'll get your stakes back if these well-balanced sides finish level after 90 minutes. A stronger pick would be on the game featuring two or more goals in 90 minutes. This has been the case in four of France's five games to date, and the only one of their games that didn't finish with two or more goals, their 0-0 draw against Switzerland, was only semi-competitive because France needed just a draw to top the group.
France's superb front line, in addition to their defensive frailties and Germany's unusual lack of security owing to Hummels' and Khedira's absences, suggests that we will get an open encounter.
The picks: France 0 Asian handicap (-112) and over two goals (-112)
ESPN INSIDER
The Euro 2016 semifinals take place on Wednesday and Thursday. After picking five winners from six selections in the quarterfinals, handicapper James Eastham picks out the smart bets for the last-four fixtures.
[h=2]WEDNESDAY[/h][h=3]Portugal vs. Wales[/h]Asian handicap: <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Portugal -0.25 (-116) vs. Wales +0.25 (+108)</offer>
3-way line: Portugal +121 / Wales +314 / Draw +206
To advance to next round: Portugal -182 / Wales +167
Total: 2 (Over -101, Under -108)
Based on how these two sides have performed in getting this far in the competition, Portugal's status as the favorites to make it through to the final makes no sense. Fernando Santos' side picked up just three points in the group stage, and played no better than Croatia (0-0 after 90 minutes) and Poland (1-1 after 90 minutes) in the last 16 and quarterfinals, respectively. In contrast, Wales picked up six points in the group stage, and while they labored in beating Northern Ireland 1-0 in the last 16 stage, Wales produced one of the best team performances of the tournament to see off Belgium 3-1 in the quarterfinals.
Wales has won four of their five games within 90 minutes, running up a +6 goal difference; Portugal have failed to win any of their games in 90 minutes, scored four fewer goals than Wales and have a +0 goal difference. Team news favors Portugal -- midfielder William Carvalho is the only member of the Portugal line-up missing, whereas Wales have to field a team without defenderBen Davies and highly influential midfielder Aaron Ramsey -- but at most, those absences in the Wales camp make this an even tie rather than tipping the balance towards Portugal.
We made a profit by backing Portugal's opponent Poland on the Asian handicap in the last round, based on the form of the two sides in the run-up to that fixture, and are happy to do the same here because there is clear evidence that Wales is good enough to win in 90 minutes -- or at least good enough to take the game to extra-time.
For those looking for bigger odds than our selection of Wales on the Asian handicap, the draw (+206) is a good alternative. The high-scoring nature of Wales' games will also tempt many people to invest in the over on two goals, and whichever way you look at the goals stats, the over is a smarter selection than the under in this instance. Four of Wales' five games have featured more than two goals and, while the same applies to only one of Portugal's five games, three of Portugal's five games have featured two goals exactly -- meaning you would have gotten your stakes back on those three occasions, rather than losing any money.
The knockout phase has produced a good number of goals overall, too; if you backed "over two goals" in all of the knockout games so far, you would have made a profit six times, got your stakes back four times and lost your stakes only twice.
The picks: Wales +0.25 Asian handicap (+108) and over two goals (-101)
[h=2]THURSDAY[/h][h=3]France vs. Germany[/h]Asian handicap: France 0 (-112) vs. Germany 0 (+105)
3-way line: France +176 / Germany +199 / Draw +209
To advance to next round: France -109 / Germany +102
Total: 2 (Over -114, Under +104)
The first thing to point out here is that if you followed our pre-tournament pick on France being crowned European champions (available at +400 at the time), then you may wish to hedge your bets here by backing Germany in some way. Looking at this game independently, however, you would be wise to take a different view.
France produced a series of average performances in the group phase, but they have played outstanding football in their last game-and-a-half: they came from 1-0 down at halftime in their last-16 tie against the Republic of Ireland to win 2-1, and then blew away Iceland with a sensational quarterfinals performance, thrashing Lars Lagerback's side 5-2.
There are legitimate concerns over the resilience of France's defence, but their front players are in such fine form -- Antoine Griezmann (four goals), Olivier Giroud (three goals) and Dimitri Payet (three goals) have scored 10 goals between them -- that their defensive insecurity is perhaps less of an issue than some observers would have you believe, given that this is likely to be an open game. Germany was equally unconvincing in the group stages before comfortably beating Slovakia 3-0 in the last-16 and narrowly outplaying a strong Italy side (1-1, penalty shoot-out win) in the quarterfinals.
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'*');}</script></body></html>**"uid":2,"hostPeerName":"http://espn.go.com","initialGeometry":"**\"windowCoords_t\":0,\"windowCoords_r\":1366,\"windowCoords_b\":728,\"windowCoords_l\":0,\"frameCoords_t\":3181.1250203450522,\"frameCoords_r\":1370,\"frameCoords_b\":3432.1250203450522,\"frameCoords_l\":1070,\"styleZIndex\":\"auto\",\"allowedExpansion_t\":0,\"allowedExpansion_r\":0,\"allowedExpansion_b\":0,\"allowedExpansion_l\":0,\"xInView\":1,\"yInView\":0.7060092150927539}","permissions":"**\"expandByOverlay\":false,\"expandByPush\":false,\"readCookie\":false,\"writeCookie\":false}","metadata":"**\"shared\":**\"sf_ver\":\"1-0-4\",\"ck_on\":1,\"flash_ver\":\"22.0.0\"}}","reportCreativeGeometry":false,"isDifferentSourceWindow":false}" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" width="300" height="250" data-is-safeframe="true" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: bottom;"></iframe></article>Looking at the tie overall, France's advantages are their superior attacking quality, better team news and the tremendous support they will be able to count on in this sell-out clash in the city of Marseille. Germany's advantages are their superior tournament experience, the presence of Manuel Neuer in goal and a greater sense of how to win competitive knockout matches (let's not forget that Germany was a 1-0 winner when these two sides met in the World Cup quarterfinals two years ago). Team news could turn out to be the crucial factor; while France has a full-strength squad to pick from, Germany has three (and possibly four) absentees: centerback Mats Hummels (suspended), midfielder Sami Khedira (injured) and striker Mario Gomez (injured) are all out, while Bastian Schweinsteiger -- the first-choice replacement for Khedira -- is an injury doubt too.
Taking all factors into account, France has a slightly better chance than Germany to win the game in 90 minutes, and for that reason, they deserve to be slight favorites. The odds appear about right, so if you're looking for a selection on the outcome of the match, then the France 0 Asian handicap would be the pick, as you'll get your stakes back if these well-balanced sides finish level after 90 minutes. A stronger pick would be on the game featuring two or more goals in 90 minutes. This has been the case in four of France's five games to date, and the only one of their games that didn't finish with two or more goals, their 0-0 draw against Switzerland, was only semi-competitive because France needed just a draw to top the group.
France's superb front line, in addition to their defensive frailties and Germany's unusual lack of security owing to Hummels' and Khedira's absences, suggests that we will get an open encounter.
The picks: France 0 Asian handicap (-112) and over two goals (-112)
